DAM60's Overstreet Comments on the Market Reports

[Timulty]

Comic Collecting <> Investing

[Aman619]

Here's what I'm proposing

 

Let's say I pick Marvel spotlight #5 9.4 as part of my portfolio and the closeout date for picks is 4/15/2006.

 

I go to GPA and pick the last MS #5 9.4 sold, hypothetically $1500.

 

Thread will state that Portfolio #1 - Bronze Age picked by AMAN contains a MS #5 9.4 that cost him $1500.

 

Gene picks his stock or commidity. Let say he's bullish on Merck. Buys 500 shares at $3 a share hypothetical cost is $1500.

 

One year later we see how well you've done

MS #5 9.4 on GPA, last recorded sale is $1600

Aman you made $100 which is less than 7%.

 

Gene goes to online stock quote and Merck is at $4 which is approx 33%.

 

Gene wins, you lose.

 

Now this is a very simple scenario and quite frankly the hesitation would be the fact that it's in black and white. Everyone sells at the high point when they own stock, they don't hold on. Everybody quickly dumps their losers, yeah right. Of course the last GPA record sale of MS #5 9.4 could be a cream/offwhite copy. Of course you personally could have sold it and got more. Rationalize it all you want but the idea is to see what exactly I'm competing against versus the intellectualizaton investing model that somehow I'm not privy to.

 

gotcha.

[drbanner]

As Buttock alludes to below, just pick your comic portfolio and see what happens to it after a year compared to the S&P, Dow, etc.,. Whos' gonna share their comic portfolio so we can track it? Donut? Bob?

 

I'm not really sure if you're trying to prove that comics are as good (or better) of an investment vehicle compared to stocks/bonds/mutual funds, or if you feel Gene is concluding that they are not ex-post-facto by ignoring the broad market and focusing instead on specific investments that have done well? See below...

 

You could do this retrospectively and you wouldn't have to wait. Look at the last 2-3 years of some funds and some books and compare.

 

Instant results.

 

Like this?

 

Here's what the S&P 500 has done over the last 5 years:

 

 

Here's almost 4 year's worth of GPA data for 12 "investment" quality BA keys:

 

 

Looks like the S&P gained about 45% since the fall of '02, and my hypothetical BA portofolio gained about 25%. Extend the graph back 2-3 years adding the raw prices of NM copies of those books and compare it to the S&P and comics would come out waaaayyyy ahead...but personally, I doubt the same holds true for the next 5 years since slabbed would be your baseline (I don't see many NM Amazing Adventures 11's raw anymore!).

[dam60]

Gene:

I've read a large number of posts where I hear about your gains yet all I have is your word. Not that I want a printed statement but my experience with most investors is that they remember their winners and suffer memory loss on the losers. In fact based on the fact that you are a "former investment banker/trader/dealer" versus a "collector/investor" I'd say you have a big advantage over the guy reading tape and relying on investment advice from brokers/financial advisors.

 

Pick a portfolio, set a dollar amount to it. If it's a stock set a date where it's bought end of day, a mutual fund same thing, commidity etc. Have members pick their competing portfolio, same rules, GPA price that day. Have a 1/3/5/10 year horizon if somebody is that ambitious.

 

Simple measurements, simple percentage gain or loss. I don't care about inflation or how much the dollar has depreciated against my original deposit.

 

This doesn't have to be rocket science. Remember, you're the investment guy. With your experience you should kick our .

 

Bob - Gene has nothing to gain from this endeavor. Gene wouldn't be employed for long if he couldn't back up his talk with his walk. He has nothing to prove to the members of this board - only his investors.

[ronm3-migration]

I was a stockbroker for 10 years I would love to see someones portfolio over that period of time. 1994-2000 was absolutely insane.

[lou_fine]

Here's what the S&P 500 has done over the last 5 years:

 

 

Here's almost 4 year's worth of GPA data for 12 "investment" quality BA keys:

 

 

Looks like the S&P gained about 45% since the fall of '02, and my hypothetical BA portofolio gained about 25%. Extend the graph back 2-3 years adding the raw prices of NM copies of those books and compare it to the S&P and comics would come out waaaayyyy ahead...but personally, I doubt the same holds true for the next 5 years since slabbed would be your baseline (I don't see many NM Amazing Adventures 11's raw anymore!).

 

Actually, Gene sometimes tends to use the same type of retroactive investment rationale which my wife is always guilty of. She always looks in the rear view mirror, picks a bottom and states that we should have put our money in at that point and by now, we would be so much more wealthier. If only it was that simple

 

As I have mentioned many times, if you have gone into the stock market in 1999 or 2000 when most of the general public was, your portfolio would probably be overweight in tech stocks since that was the hottest thing at the time. Skip ahead to 2006 and I bet you that your stock portfolio is probably still running negative while your comic book holdings have gone up by a nice healthy margin.

[lou_fine]

I was a stockbroker for 10 years I would love to see someones portfolio over that period of time. 1994-2000 was absolutely insane.

 

Unfortunately, the majority of the general public also missed out on this time period until it was too late. From what I hear, most people got in during the 1999 - 2000 boom portion boldly claiming that they would be able to retire early at age 45.

 

A few years later, the majority of these same people claimed that they'll never ever touch the stock market again. They also laugh and now say that they probably won't be able to retire until age 85.

[delekkerste]

Bob - Gene has nothing to gain from this endeavor. Gene wouldn't be employed for long if he couldn't back up his talk with his walk. He has nothing to prove to the members of this board - only his investors.

 

Dave knows the kind of numbers I've been putting up year-in and year-out and, like he said, I don't have anything to prove or anything to gain from a "Gene vs. comics" performance comparison, which is irrelevant to the issues under discussion. End of story.

[blazingbob]

Dave, I think Gene can defend himself just fine.

 

It's time to put up or shut up.

 

Or is it that maybe one of his clients might see him giving out "free" advice versus paying for it?

[COI]

It's time to put up or shut up.

 

And why is that, exactly?

 

He's proved himself just based on the content of his posts, he presents logical arguments to back up his opinions, and only resorts to personal attacks when he is being attacked. So tell me why he has to "put up or shut up"? Fact is, no matter what he says or does, he's going to be met with moronic comments like "ok, mr. financial fancy pants" from people who choose to launch personal attacks against him because they lack the intellectual capacity to respond appropriately. For someone who dosen't troll anyone, dosen't have any shills, and has never cheated anyone in the hobby, Gene takes a lot of abuse. And despite that, he's still expected to "prove himself" to the very same people who lash out.

 

If free investment advice is what you're after, just say so.

[COI]

Good to see you Dave......stick around.

[delekkerste]

Thanks for the support, Andrew. You're spot-on about how the focus, as it pertains to myself, should be about the content of my posts - my ideas/opinions and how I back them up. I do not want or need to spend any time on this "competition" as I have nothing to prove, it has no upside for me and it takes the focus off of the ideas being discussed. I come to this Board to relax, socialize and engage in lively discussion/debate. I don't want to diminish that by feeling like the spotlight here is on my investment performance (it's not like it isn't under enough scrutiny already, such is the nature of the business) and people are hoping for me to fail (as Aman suggested) everytime I log onto the Board. I think that's pretty easy to understand.

[batman_fan]

I was a stockbroker for 10 years I would love to see someones portfolio over that period of time. 1994-2000 was absolutely insane.

 

I invested in high tech stocks in 1998 (some a little earlier) and cashed in in 2000. My stock went up almost 15x. My stock picks included Ciena, Etek (later JDSU), Cisco, Lucent, LSI, AOL, etc. Now the only reason I cashed out in 2000 was that I moved to silicon valley and decided to buy a house so cash was required. If I hadn't bought the house, my investment would be negative. Timing is critical and in my case, a whole lot of luck!!!

[drbanner]

Actually, Gene sometimes tends to use the same type of retroactive investment rationale which my wife is always guilty of. She always looks in the rear view mirror, picks a bottom and states that we should have put our money in at that point and by now, we would be so much more wealthier. If only it was that simple

 

Read some of Gene's posts in the Water Cooler...I can assure you that what he is looking at in the rear view mirror is the road that he travelled down the last few years.

 

As I have mentioned many times, if you have gone into the stock market in 1999 or 2000 when most of the general public was, your portfolio would probably be overweight in tech stocks since that was the hottest thing at the time. Skip ahead to 2006 and I bet you that your stock portfolio is probably still running negative while your comic book holdings have gone up by a nice healthy margin.

 

Buying HG raw books in 1999/2000 and selling slabbed was certainly a lucrative investment, especially compared to buying in at the NASDAQ during that period and continuing to hold those stocks/funds. Conversely, it hasn't been that difficult to make 10-20% per year in the market since 2003, and generally speaking, buying HG slabbed since 2003 most likely hasn't resulted in a "nice healthy margin", and many books have actually depreciated since then.

[Aman619]

all the more reason to pick portfolies and lets have a smackdown already!! : )

[drbanner]

all the more reason to pick portfolios and lets have a smackdown already!! : )

 

Apparently no one can be bothered, but since you said it - where are your picks?

 

I was already tracking the BA books shown in my graph above and will continue to do so. However, I did not explicitly pick them as an "investment portfolio", but rather as a broad sample of BA books that are of investment quality (aka High Grade keys). I have no idea where prices for these are going to be down the road 1, 3, 5 years from now...

[Aman619]

I dont care which comics are chosen... chances are I'll be covered whichever makes the list. Im more curious to see what will be good invesrtments in the real world...and what Gene thinks will outperform comics...... and as much as I realize and admit that all the pressure would be one-sided in this contest, Id still love to see Gene's picks. Given my predictions for comics in the next year (sideways) I cant see how he'd lose... and would love to see an actual contest going on. Maybe Gene can make three portfolios so he's not pressurized and has less chance of losing face.

 

This debate never goes out of style, so it seems like it would be interesting to make it something we could all follow and watch in real time. I think most of us expect Gene will outperform the comics market, but theres a tinge of anti Wall St in its whole concept that appeals to the rest of us. Basically, are these investment gurus really ahead of the curve? or more like the TV weatherman???

 

The age old question!

[mica]

The loser in this contest would still be able to say "long term will fluctuate in the other direction".

So I'm not sure it would "settle" anything.

[Aman619]

theres that too! so there will be no losers here...