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CGC Census - fun with numbers

Started by valiantman,

19 posts in this topic

dam60

dam60

Posted
Posted

Greg - really great idea!!!!!!!!!!! grin.gif

 

I tested two books: Batman 200 and Batman 497.

 

here are my comments:

Batman 200

your algorithm shows that the single 9.8 would go for 22x one of the 18 9.4s. Too high - WAY too high. A 9.4 falls between $275-$300, 22x is in the range of a low grade Batman #1 (Paradise comics just sold a cgc 7.5 MR for $6500).

 

Batman 497

This shows that the lone 10.0 would gather 39.2 times a 9.4. Actually I will agree with this. 9.8s don't sell for $22 (this hasn't sold in 6 months) and a 9.6 would probably go for $15, maybe less, with a 9.4 around $10. I can see the lone 10.0 going for around $300-$400, although don't look at me to be a buyer at this price. Keeping with that logic of $10 for a 9.4, a 1.74 ratio for the 9.8 makes sense and past sales will verify that.

 

Good stuff!!

 

DAM

 

 

 

 

 

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valiantman

valiantman

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DAM,

 

Thanks for playing along...

 

I am more concerned with the "relative values" for the books

that actually sell more frequently, whether that's 9.2 to 9.8,

or even 8.0 to 9.0 for some of the tougher books.

 

Given that we're using 9.4 as the base, do the nearby grades look accurate?

It's much harder to put a "guesstimate" on what the highest graded copy would do,

since those are rarely sold...and even one sale doesn't represent a nice average.

 

I'm trying to find a more logical way to "evaluate" CGC books, since actual sales

are sometimes ridiculously skewed compared to the census.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

Posted
Posted

You can't fit the entire CGC market into a pat little formula. Multiples fluctuate wildly over time, there is a huge difference between a CGC 9.8 Key and a 9.8 Common, and there is no free market on Earth that can be so easily categorized.

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valiantman

valiantman

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What type of equation did you use to calculate the multiples?

 

Actually, I was going to post my formula first...

but I realized it would be more fun for everyone if I just wrote

a page that allows you to try it out, using any book in the census...

 

Basically, I use the cumulative frequencies in all calculations...

So, calculating "the base" for 9.4 includes all grades 9.4 and up.

To calculate for 9.8, I include all grades 9.8 and up.

 

A "simple ratio" would take 9.4andUp divided by 9.8andUp,

but the multiples can be much too large doing this "simple ratio"...

For example, if there was a book with 1 CGC 9.8 and 1000 copies in CGC 9.4...

we would probably NOT see the CGC 9.8 sell for 1000times the 9.4 price...

even though the "simple ratio" shows that situation has occurred in grading.

 

So, I "tone it down" by smoothing out the "jump" from 9.4 to 9.6 to 9.8 to 9.9 to 10.0.

(Basically using the next lower grade as a "base" for a more believable multiple.)

 

For CGC grades below 9.4, I'm using a combination of the census frequencies

with the decrease in the condition of the book.

For books that are tougher to find in CGC 8.0...you'll see a stronger 8.0 value.

For books (like moderns) that are easy in CGC 8.0...you'll see a weaker 8.0 value.

 

Since I don't plan to actually seek out the "best known copies" of most books,

I wanted a more scientific way to use the census and the average market prices

when I'm ready to buy an "affordable CGC condition" book in the future.

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valiantman

valiantman

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You can't fit the entire CGC market into a pat little formula.

 

That's true.

 

But I think this is at least as good as the "Overstreet formula" for condition pricing.

(Which is more or less 10%-20%-30%-60%-80% as you move across the columns)

 

Each book has its own history, market values, and CGC census numbers.

So, you won't get the same results for any two books, unless their CGC counts

are identical...and even then, their average market prices probably won't be!

(And since I don't tell you what CGC 9.4 is worth...it's up to you to research

the actual current market prices before you get anything out of this system.)

 

As the market changes...so do the values.

As the CGC census changes...so do the values.

 

It's more "alive" than just "a pat little formula".

(Ever hear of Black-Scholes?) wink.gif

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fantastic_four

fantastic_four

Posted
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You can't fit the entire CGC market into a pat little formula.

 

That's true.

 

But I think this is at least as good as the "Overstreet formula" for condition pricing.

(Which is more or less 10%-20%-30%-60%-80% as you move across the columns)

 

Each book has its own history, market values, and CGC census numbers.

So, you won't get the same results for any two books, unless their CGC counts

are identical...and even then, their average market prices probably won't be!

(And since I don't tell you what CGC 9.4 is worth...it's up to you to research

the actual current market prices before you get anything out of this system.)

 

Why not add a textbox to input the NM 9.4 price? Calculating the actual values would then be a simple multiplication for each grade. I made a spreadsheet like this for myself a while ago to help me get used to calculating multiples in my head, but yours is more interesting since it takes supply into account.

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jonnydouble

jonnydouble

Posted
Posted
Bump...

 

The CGC census has recently been updated,

and I've "trained" my model to work better.

 

Give it a shot...might I suggest Hulk 181? (CGC 9.4 price around $2500)

...and see what you think!

 

http://www.valiantcomics.com/CGCcalc.asp

 

I took a look and I only have one question.

 

What does [!@#%^&^] freq. mean?...seems a little personal to me.

 

J.D. blush.gif

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murph0

murph0

Posted
Posted

Frequency is the ratio of how many times it shows up against all the other grades. So say you have 100 issues graded total, 2 are at 9.6..the frequency of a 9.6 is 2 percent.

 

Brian

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Bugaboo-migration

Bugaboo-migration

Posted
Posted

The graded comic market is going to get shot down faster than greggy in a singles bar. Sell your books and get out now, fools. Otherwise, you'll be fertilizing grass with the other speculator sheep when the literally lose the shirts off their back.

 

shitting_sheep.gif

 

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valiantman

valiantman

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Frequency is the ratio of how many times it shows up against all the other grades. So say you have 100 issues graded total, 2 are at 9.6..the frequency of a 9.6 is 2 percent.

 

Yep, Frequency (Freq.) is the % for that grade.

Cumulative Frequency (Cumul. Freq.) is the % for that grade and all higher grades.

 

So, if 2 out of 100 are CGC 9.6, the Freq. is 2%.

If 5 of those copies out of 100 are CGC 9.6 or higher, the Cumul. Freq. is 5%.

 

Did any of you give Hulk 181 (or your favorite book) a try?

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murph0

murph0

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I gave a couple a try, it seems to be way off on books that are pricey in 9.4 but the corresponding 9.2 isn't even half that.

And it's really off on books like ASM 11 and 28. :\

 

Brian

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valiantman

valiantman

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it seems to be way off on books that are pricey in 9.4 but the corresponding 9.2 isn't even half that. And it's really off on books like ASM 11 and 28.

 

Those two books don't have very many graded copies in the census.

 

As more books are graded, either there will be more 9.4's (lowering the 9.4 price)

or there won't be more 9.4's (improving the price on 9.2).

 

How far off is the model now? 10%-20%?

That's not bad considering how few have been graded and sold on the open market.

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fantastic_four

fantastic_four

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Yep, thats the problem with this kind of 'system', many HTF books just don't follow a pattern.

 

If they didn't follow a pattern, then you wouldn't know yourself whether they were "off" or not. The pattern might be extremely complex, but that doesn't mean there isn't one. A calculator like this might need to factor in more variables to be closer to accurate.

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valiantman

valiantman

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A calculator like this might need to factor in more variables to be closer to accurate.

 

Cool...

 

Here's what's included so far:

 

1) Census numbers (difficulty to obtain grade vs. other copies already graded)

2) Current CGC 9.4 Value (treated as the "base" for other grade prices)

3) CGC Grade (the lower the grade/condition, the lesser the value)

 

Since "content things" like story importance, character appearances, key issues,

are already wrapped up nicely in the price...(people already pay more when it matters)...

what else should be included on the calculator?

 

The two dynamic variables (census distributions & current value) combined

with the static variable for condition grades make for a fairly complex system.

The rules change for each book, for each grade. Kinda like the real world.

 

I guess people think they get what they pay for...

so maybe I should charge for using this calculator thingy... grin.gif

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