Interesting Quote from Chuck

[joe_collector]

From Chuck's latest Tales from the Database:

 

"We now have a back issue comics market that is the strongest in history, with overall annual revenues on back issue comics sales estimated be greater than the total sales for all new comics published this year!"

 

Now I'm not going to comment specifically, but I'm betting the veterans in the crowd might understand the ramifications of this statement.

[Mushroom]

Yeah... no new generation of collectors coming through.

 

Joe...is your glass ever half full.

[THE_BEYONDER]

How do we know that "new" collectors aren't collecting "old" books?

[PovertyRow]

How do we know that "new" collectors aren't collecting "old" books?

 

Hmmmmm!

[greggy]

How do we know that "new" collectors aren't collecting "old" books?

 

Hmmmmm!

 

Go to sleep...GRAMPS!

[joe_collector]

Yeah... no new generation of collectors coming through.

 

Nope, the point of Chuck's comment continues to elude the great minds of the CGC Forum.

[ArAich]

From Chuck's latest Tales from the Database:

 

"We now have a back issue comics market that is the strongest in history, with overall annual revenues on back issue comics sales estimated be greater than the total sales for all new comics published this year!"

 

Now I'm not going to comment specifically, but I'm betting the veterans in the crowd might understand the ramifications of this statement.

 

I think that you would interprate this as to mean that the market is going to be flooded with back issues thus lowering prices since the supply has sharply increased...Hence another notch in your "I Will Fiddle While the Graded Comic Market BURNS " prediction...

[Lantern]

Nope, the point of Chuck's comment continues to elude the great minds of the CGC Forum.

 

I am definately not a great mind on this or any forum, but I would guess that it has something to do with the quality of books being produced. The quality of books that you can buy in the back issue bins is better than a majority of books on the new comic racks. From an economics stand point you can get better art and stories from better creators at a better cost?

 

I am one of the people that buy a lot more back issues than new issues.

[lighthouse]

"We now have a back issue comics market that is the strongest in history, with overall annual revenues on back issue comics sales estimated be greater than the total sales for all new comics published this year!"

 

Um... Chuck's an insufficiently_thoughtful_person???

 

Is that the point you were getting at? Because the statement itself is asinine to say the least.

 

Based on the data in C&GR, total dollar volume of new release comics sales the last twelve months is $135,000,000. That works out to $370,000 a day...

 

Total eBay sales volume has been topping that for a VERY long time, and that doesn't even take into account in-store sales, mail-order sales, convention sales, or private sales. Heck this forum averages $5,000 a day just in private deals between its members.

 

I would say that back issues sales have been topping new comics sales since at least 1998, and probably well before that... In fact, with the exception of a time period around 1993, they've probably been stronger since the mid-1980's

 

Not sure what point you were trying to make JC... but clearly the statement itself is ridiculous.

[HighVoltage]

Along the line of Lantern's post: How many people here no longer collect new stuff, but only back issues? I've strongly considered leaving the new stuff behind the past few years, and probably would have if not for Marvel's Ultimate line & a commitment to some better stories (although some of that seems to have gone to hades recently).

[awe4one]

Though I agree totally with Lighthouse.....

 

I believe what you're driving at is the speculators are back and NOT buying new comics...they are speculating and driving the prices of back issue comics up. Eventually they will tire of this endeavor as their "investment" won't appreciate quickly enough and they will dump on the market, causing a crash. The early 90s all over again with back issues the victim this time.

 

Am I close?

 

 

Jim

[joe_collector]

I would say that back issues sales have been topping new comics sales since at least 1998, and probably well before that... In fact, with the exception of a time period around 1993, they've probably been stronger since the mid-1980's

 

Not sure what point you were trying to make JC... but clearly the statement itself is ridiculous.

 

Come on, Chuck is obviously referring to the BUSINESS of comics, and using stats of those who earn their livelihood from buying and selling comics. After all, what other numbers were there pre-EBay? I once sold a comic for $10 in the mid-80's, but so what?

 

I know for a fact that dealers/store revenue was not more than 50% for back issue until at least the point where EBay and CGC came on the scene. In fact, many dealers reported back issue percentages shrinking in the 80's and falling to 10% or less during the speculator heyday of 1990-93.

 

Now I harp on Chuck quite a bit, but I believe in this he is spot on, and around 1999-2003, back issues (CGC and otherwise) became the cash cows and far eclipsed new comic/trade sales.

 

If you know anything about comic trends circa 1970-2003, then it should be easy to draw your own parallels.

[dam60]

I know for a fact that dealers/store revenue was not more than 50% for back issue until at least the point where EBay and CGC came on the scene. In fact, many dealers reported back issue percentages shrinking in the 80's and falling to 10% or less during the speculator heyday of 1990-93.

 

Maybe House or some other retailer can help me out here, but I would assume that back issues (for those stores that even have them anymore) are pretty nill. It seems like now the money might not be through the new comics, but it will be through TPBs, Bowen busts and other comic related merchandise?

 

In my experiences, there is one shop in NYC that I patronize that deals with back issues almost exclusively, one that has absolutely no back issues, and a lot that have a few back issues. Most of the back issue business these days seems to take place (and probably in this order):

1 - ebay

2 - mail order

3 - conventions

4 - stores

5 - other (garage sales, flea markets, etc)

 

Thoughts??

 

DAM

 

[joe_collector]

Maybe House or some other retailer can help me out here, but I would assume that back issues (for those stores that even have them anymore) are pretty nill.

 

That's why I listed businesses/dealers/stores who buy and sell comics for their livelihood. That can include Metropolis, Blazing Bob and the corner comic book store, but these are quantifiable numbers.

 

I don't think back issue volume has increased, but the per-dollar transaction amount has jumped through the roof for back issues.

[dam60]

JC - I am starting to get confused a bit:

That's why I listed businesses/dealers/stores who buy and sell comics for their livelihood. That can include Metropolis, Blazing Bob and the corner comic book store, but these are quantifiable numbers.

 

originally you said:

I know for a fact that dealers/store revenue was not more than 50% for back issue until at least the point where EBay and CGC came on the scene. In fact, many dealers reported back issue percentages shrinking in the 80's and falling to 10% or less during the speculator heyday of 1990-93

 

I think you just need to quantify your base a bit more as Blazing and Metro don't sell new stuff / tpbs / toys, etc. so have always been 100% back issue sales - although it would be very interesting to track their total dollar volumes (which is what I think you are getting at).

 

If anything, I would say that the typical store back issues sales have plummeted since the event of Ebay. Ebay really did put a lot of liquidity in the market and helped turn "wall" books like Valiants or even a Ghost Rider #1 (God, I loved that series!) that I can buy routinely at every con for no more than $1.

 

DAM

 

[joe_collector]

I think you just need to quantify your base a bit more as Blazing and Metro don't sell new stuff / tpbs / toys, etc. so have always been 100% back issue sales - although it would be very interesting to track their total dollar volumes (which is what I think you are getting at).

 

Exactly, and I don't see why this is so hard to comprehend. Dealers, stores and even large private sellers have long reported these figures to Overstreet, and as an entire (total, cumulative, whatever) "I get my livelihood from selling comics" base, since CGC, back issues have increased dramatically as a percentage of overall industry revenues.

 

Let's say (hypothetically) in 1987 back issues made up 35% of overall industry revenues, then in 1993 that fell to 10%, and now in 2003 it's 55%. That's what I've been referring to here, not taking meaningless Store X and seeing how many (equally meaningless) back issues they have in stock.

 

This is a combination of speculation and the high speculative prices causing some long-time collectors (and industry notables like Cage, Stan Lee and Shwartz) to drop their collections onto the open market and take the cash while it's still there.

[lighthouse]

I would say that back issues sales have been topping new comics sales since at least 1998, and probably well before that... In fact, with the exception of a time period around 1993, they've probably been stronger since the mid-1980's

 

Not sure what point you were trying to make JC... but clearly the statement itself is ridiculous.

 

Come on, Chuck is obviously referring to the BUSINESS of comics, and using stats of those who earn their livelihood from buying and selling comics. After all, what other numbers were there pre-EBay? I once sold a comic for $10 in the mid-80's, but so what?

 

Okay, a brief interjection here before my reply. There is no possible way to break the market down based on who makes their "livelihood" from it. I own a shop, but my livelihood is more than taken care of by other means. BronzeBruce does more revenue than 80% of all comic stores, but it's not his livelihood either. I know a lot of store owners who would be happy with the sales results of Darth, or Donut. The "livelihood" criteria just doesn't wash...

 

I know for a fact that dealers/store revenue was not more than 50% for back issue until at least the point where EBay and CGC came on the scene. In fact, many dealers reported back issue percentages shrinking in the 80's and falling to 10% or less during the speculator heyday of 1990-93.

 

Now I harp on Chuck quite a bit, but I believe in this he is spot on, and around 1999-2003, back issues (CGC and otherwise) became the cash cows and far eclipsed new comic/trade sales.

 

If you know anything about comic trends circa 1970-2003, then it should be easy to draw your own parallels.

 

Okay I am still trying to follow this logic here... You say that dealer/store revenue was not more than 50% for back issues before eBay, and that back issues percentages shrank throughout the 90's to 10% or less in 1990-93.

 

To which I respond, Duh?

 

Everyone here is well aware that store revenue for back issues is less than 10% right now. Walk into any five different stores in any city in North America and you will see that.

 

So clearly that was not the big news you're trying to deliver.

 

But then you suggest that you were actually talking about people who make their living selling comics, including Metropolis and BlazingBob... Now I may not know my history all that well, but when exactly were Metropolis and BlazingBob selling lots of new release comics? When did their "percentage of sales" for back issues change dramatically?

 

I reread Chuck's piece twice, and it seems pretty clear to me that he is discussing the "back issue market" which includes stores, cons, eBay, mail-order, this forum, etc... He states that back issue sales have now eclipsed total sales of new comics, industry-wide in dollar volume. We BOTH know he's not talking about brick-and-mortar stores seeing 50% of their revenue from back issues. He's talking about the industry as a whole, total sales vs total sales.

 

Chuck is slow to deliver this news... Just like the guy on tv last week who said that video games have now eclipsed movies in total sales... Hello, McFly... That happened four years ago, not a news story, thank you and drive through.

 

So I really have a hard time with you finding some "big conclusion" out of Chuck reporting a fact that isn't news at all. Back issue sales have been greater than new comics sales for years now. How many years? Who knows? But you posted that this was somehow an indicator of another big cycle in the industry... If it was, it did its indicating in 1998...

[dam60]

JC - I'm with you now. Only thing I have to say about that is this:

with the advent of crazy prices being achieved for CGC books, we have several large transactions that are skewing the back issue market.

 

Let me put it to you like this: to say that over 1,000 TPBs trade for every $15K cgc book is probably accurate, if not drastically understated. Yet if the avg. TPB is $15 you have each making up the same percentage. It would be interesting to look at the customer numbers too and not just the total dollar amount. Personally I have about 50-75 cgc books and have traded/sold another 50 at least, and have about the same # of TPBs, maybe more. Yet, I would venture to say that there are a lot more people with only one TPB than with one CGC book.

 

The penetration of the comic book market would be interesting to see . . .

 

DC! Marvel! Where are you! Why won't you hire me!

Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

 

DAM

[joe_collector]

But you posted that this was somehow an indicator of another big cycle in the industry... If it was, it did its indicating in 1998...

 

We simply disagree on the year, as I feel it was obviously when CGC started up. I can remember during the early days of EBay, and high-dollar sales were not the order of the day, and most times it was just the opposite.

 

There is no question in my mind that CGC is the sole cause of back issues going over the 50% hump.

[joe_collector]

What's most amusing about all this is that you're intelligent guys and you know what the next 5-10 years will bring. You know we're on a speculative bubble and that Marvel movies are driving most of the price spikes (DD131 anyone?). You know it can't last, and when it comes time to pay the piper, there's gonna be blood on the floor.

 

But there's too much sucker-money to be made, so everyone just ducks their head, closes their eyes, listens to the music, and hopes it keeps playing for another year. Disappointing...

 

Or as Westley says in The Princess Bride: "We are men of action, lies do not become us."