How strong is the back issue market?

[dam60]

After reading about who has the best collection both for dealers and stores I wanted to pose a question to you all:

 

What if tomorrow Metropolis (I use them because IMO they have the most valuable inventory and one of the best dealer collections of key books) had their own little Heritage-esque auction with $1 starting bids and no reserves?

 

What do you think the effects would be on the market as a whole? Would the market be able to support all those books with a minimal decline in price, or would the Metropolis sale just be the spark that ignites a whole fire of selling as prices reach new all time lows with some of these bronze and even SA books going back to their original cover prices?

 

Thoughts?

 

DAM

[lighthouse]

I think you would see a pull-back in prices of around 20-25% that would last for about 3 months.

 

Then I think you would see prices climb higher than they were before.

 

I know JC is going to object to that last statement, but I think on a lot of the high end items, you have folks out there who are more limited by their demand for quality than they are by their pocketbooks. Guys who will buy books at 9.4 at huge multiples of guide but wouldn't buy the same book for half of guide at 8.5. The heavy hitters are not really limited by their pocketbooks, they are limited by the amount of quality material available to them.

 

At the high end, you will hear people complain all the time "I would have paid that much for it! Why didn't they sell it to me?" The opportunity for the purchase is the limiting factor.

 

The biggest lesson of eBay in the back issue market is that if a collector can get access to a decent percentage of the books he is looking for, he will rabidly search for the rest. Guys in Podunk, Montana, who had no access to conventions and no trust of mail order, sat on runs of books that were 20% complete with no intention of filling them, because the transaction cost was just too high. eBay comes around and that guy sees he can find 60% of the run quickly and easily, he's now a serious player for that last 20%.

 

I think if Metropolis did what you describe, there would be a lot of folks who would suddenly look at their 60% completed runs (that they picked up because it was a 'bargain') and get serious about picking up those last few.

 

And now I will turn it over to JC... for his gloom-and-doom rebuttal...

[joe_collector]

IAnd now I will turn it over to JC... for his gloom-and-doom rebuttal...

 

Thanks Lighthouse, and to continue...

 

I won't get all gloom-and-doom, but I think it's wishful thinking to hope that back issues will continue to appreciate for years to come, and that all the "high rollers" are not here for the money, but for some altruistic, heartfelt comic collecting.

 

I view the current back issue market as extremely volatile and tenous. I've seen it too many times before, and I would like EVERYONE on here to take a look in the mirror and answer a few questions:

 

1) Have you been collecting consistently through your life?

 

2) If not, when have you left collecting and then come back?

 

If the answers to #2 coincide with boom and bust periods, then you're like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, destined to live through the same circumstances time and time again...

 

3) Look in the mirror and ask "what brought you back?"

 

Greggy was picking up Marvel 9.8 Keys for $10-$20 a piece in the mid-90's when it wasn't sexy to do so, so why are so many now willing to spend a few grand on the exact same books?

[dam60]

This isn't directly addressed to you house, but here's my question:

 

. Guys who will buy books at 9.4 at huge multiples of guide but wouldn't buy the same book for half of guide at 8.5. The heavy hitters are not really limited by their pocketbooks, they are limited by the amount of quality material available to them.

 

Okay, so based on this statement it seems that the best place to be is HG. Then if you can't be in HG, I would almost make the argument to buy stuff in G/VG as there will always be a completionist out there that wants a decent enough copy but doesn't want to pay the coin for a F/VF-VF/NM?? Therefore, my question is: Do you think that G/VG will appreciate quicker than VFs?

 

DAM

[joe_collector]

Okay, so based on this statement it seems that the best place to be is HG. Then if you can't be in HG, I would almost make the argument to buy stuff in G/VG as there will always be a completionist out there that wants a decent enough copy but doesn't want to pay the coin for a F/VF-VF/NM?? Therefore, my question is: Do you think that G/VG will appreciate quicker than VFs?

 

DAM

 

Trust me on this, if you want to see serious appreciation on your investment, don't buy comics. There's no room left on most books, and many of the "high rollers" were (and some still are) actively manipulating the market.

 

We've already experienced the CGC Boom, the Marvel Movie Mania, and the Investor Influx, so it boggles the mind that some would believe that the back issue market will get HOTTER over the next few years...

[dam60]

Right now I am only buying permanent collection stuff and am actively trimming some of my dupes to finance a recent grail piece. Ever see My AboutMe Page?

 

Also I am at the stage of my collecting where I am into some heavy duty price tag (at least for me) Batman books and I am trying to figure out if I would be safer in the long term with a nice 5.0 vs a 8.0. Personally, I hope to never ever have to sell my collection, making this an academic question and not a practical one. Yet, when I pass away I wouldn't care what my heirs did with the books - but at the same time if they decided to sell (which they probably would since I am the only one that collects comics) I would want them to be relatively liquid.

 

DAM

[joe_collector]

Yet, when I pass away I wouldn't care what my heirs did with the books - but at the same time if they decided to sell (which they probably would since I am the only one that collects comics) I would want them to be relatively liquid.

 

Go talk to the guys on here whose grandfathers "invested" in stamps and whose fathers did the same with silver coins. Your heirs will likely get stuck with worthless [!@#%^&^] as well, and laugh at your stupidity.

 

"Why couldn't that old insufficiently_thoughtful_person have bought X, Y or Z instead of these worthless comics? Why didn't that lemming have any vision?"

[lighthouse]

This isn't directly addressed to you house, but here's my question:

 

. Guys who will buy books at 9.4 at huge multiples of guide but wouldn't buy the same book for half of guide at 8.5. The heavy hitters are not really limited by their pocketbooks, they are limited by the amount of quality material available to them.

 

Okay, so based on this statement it seems that the best place to be is HG. Then if you can't be in HG, I would almost make the argument to buy stuff in G/VG as there will always be a completionist out there that wants a decent enough copy but doesn't want to pay the coin for a F/VF-VF/NM?? Therefore, my question is: Do you think that G/VG will appreciate quicker than VFs?

 

DAM

 

This has been true for quite a while now. Low grade reading copies sell very well, frequently at prices higher than guide. And HG stuff does the same. I absolutely hate to see a collection of Silver Age in Fine- to Fine+ come into my shop. Because according to the guide they are worth three times as much as books in Good, and I am lucky if they will move at 1.25x Good. And yet I have a hard time explaining to sellers why the book listed in $30 in Fine will really only sell at $12 (and will sell slowly at that), when the book in Good will sell for nearly the same amount. I don't mind paying 40% of guide for Silver Age books in Good. They turn quickly enough for me to make them profitable at that. But I have a hard time justifying paying more than 15% for books in Fine. Because frankly they sell better if I slap a 4.0 tag on them and let buyers think I didn't realize it was really a Fine...

 

Personally, at the wholesale prices I see right now, if you can't be in high grade, I think solid G-VG books are the way to go. But it depends on how liquid you want to be. Eventually true VF books will find a market, because I am a firm believer that if there is a copy of a book that's worth $100 there is also a copy worth $90, and $80, and $70... The idea that you have books worth $100, and the next step down is $45 seems odd to me...

 

(And just so everyone is clear, I am talking about common and semi-key books here. Of course I can sell a Fine of AF15... But on a Spidey 19? I'd rather have two Good+ books than one Fine.)

 

[chrisco37]

. I absolutely hate to see a collection of Silver Age in Fine- to Fine+ come into my shop. Because according to the guide they are worth three times as much as books in Good, and I am lucky if they will move at 1.25x Good. And yet I have a hard time explaining to sellers why the book listed in $30 in Fine will really only sell at $12 (and will sell slowly at that), when the book in Good will sell for nearly the same amount.

 

I had a very similar conversation w/ the owner of my LCS, and he echoed your exact sentiments, House. He used FF #48 as an example. Unfortunately, I do not have my OS w/ me at the moment, so I can't provide figures to aide in this arguement. But, basically, what he said was Collector's aren't willing to pay Fine prices for a Fine book (everybody looking for a deal), and Dealer's aren't going to knock a book price down to VG prices to get it to sell. He said that Fine books are, without a doubt, the toughest books to move.

 

Chris

[dam60]

'House - thanks for the retailers insight. I agree - at least now that I am buying them more to read, I think that my run of Batman 1-200 will be in the solid 4.0-5.0 range. I know that a lot of them are there. I am slowly upgrading some of my non NM 300 on up, with 200-300 a bit sticky for me as some of these books have real muscle now.

 

JC - I obviously have other investments that will be distributed as part of my estate, but let's face it - I spend about $100 a month on comic books (usually much more). Now I don't really go to the movies much, my GF doesn't drink (aka I don't drink), and the money that I am spending now would have gone to those two things in the past. Now I still view it that I am spending discretionary income on myself but instead of being stuck with a worthless movie ticket or on a long line to the bathroom, I have a comic book. I have to believe that the salvage value of a comic will be worth more than a used movie ticket. If the comic market crashed, I wouldn't be devestated as I want to keep my comics and I don't view them as liquid investments, but I wouldn't be thrilled either. Right now I am able to cycle out of stuff to fund new purchases, if that wasn't possible I would be a lot more hesitant about making the new purchases that I have. Example: I actually took a long box of Uncanny X-Men doubles and sold them to a dealer at the last NYC con for $75 in cash and $150 in trade. The trade went straight to Batman books and the cash went to Batman books and an art portfolio. If I couldn't sell, I wouldn't be as far as i am with my Batman run.

 

Sorry for the

 

DAM

[joe_collector]

Are comics a better investment than buying a case of beer? Yep.

 

Are comics a better investment than an old movie stub? Probably.

 

Are the profits from investing in CGC comics going to let you retire early or pay for your kid's education? Hardly, and you'll likely lose your shirt in the long run.

[Kevin Boyd]

Are the profits from investing in CGC comics going to let you retire early or pay for your kid's education? Hardly, and you'll likely lose your shirt in the long run.

 

Please adjust to: "Are the profits from investing in comics going to let you retire early or..."

 

You have an overwhelming fascination with bashing CGC graded comics. Anyone who thinks that investing in collectibles for longterm reasons other than collecting enjoyment is foolish. Mainly because no one can predict the future of any collectibles market.

 

Not that back-issue comics have not already seen long-term growth and there's no reason why they won't continue to do so... these short-term price hikes on CGC graded books may be anomalies, but I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater just yet.

 

Kev

[joe_collector]

You have an overwhelming fascination with bashing CGC graded comics. Anyone who thinks that investing in collectibles for longterm reasons other than collecting enjoyment is foolish. Mainly because no one can predict the future of any collectibles market.

 

Wrong, I can.

[Bugaboo-migration]

You have an overwhelming fascination with bashing CGC graded comics. Anyone who thinks that investing in collectibles for longterm reasons other than collecting enjoyment is foolish. Mainly because no one can predict the future of any collectibles market.

 

Wrong, I can.

Joe needs to work on his self confidence and learn to speak his mind.

[Kevin Boyd]

You can try. You might even be right, but it's still speculation... or is that "anti-speculation"?

 

Kev

[joe_collector]

Joe needs to work on his self confidence and learn to speak his mind.

 

Shaddup, I'm taking night classes!

[Lofwyr]

Not that back-issue comics have not already seen long-term growth and there's no reason why they won't continue to do so

 

Actually there's plenty of reasons why it won't continue to grow. Most of the comic book price spurt came on the heels of the "collector's age" when speculation was rampant. Now that the movies and CGC are "hot" speculation is rampant once more. You see the same ultra-high grade CGC books being flipped often for profit. It makes me believe many of these people don't collect for nostalgia's mistake but merely to ride the temporary tide of price inflation.

 

Once CGC and the movies become old news a decrease in price is inevitable. Most people are banking on CGC without knowing the true numbers of some of those books out there. Most of the people claiming that comics are a good "investment" are usually dealers selling the equivalent of comic book snake oil or misguided individuals who don't understand economics.

 

[joe_collector]

You can try. You might even be right, but it's still speculation... or is that "anti-speculation"?

 

In a way you're right, and no one can say with absolute certainty what will happen.

 

What I do is weigh all the current market factors and relate those back to previous back issue trends, then come up with a logical and well-founded idea of what the next few years will bring.

 

Looking over the data, I can't see one single reason why anyone would think HG comics would increase from their current FMV levels. All I see is a precipice that will yawn even wider when the Marvel Movie Mania cuts out.

 

After that, cover your ears and watch out.

[lighthouse]

You can do pretty well investing in comics without ever buying any CGC books... or any high grade books at all for that matter.

 

Kindly point out to me when Batman 1-50 or Superman 1-50 have gone down in value for more than a year in the lower grades... Point out the huge drop in prices for low-grade Timelys...

 

Pull out any two Overstreets five years apart and direct me to the huge drop in low-grade Golden Age super-hero prices.

 

Then, why don't you show me any two Overstreets three years apart where AF 15, FF 1, or Showcase 4 plunged in the lower grades...

 

I thought so...

 

You can talk all you want about the collectors who play in the rarified air of ultra-highgrade books, whether before CGC or after. The guys who pay multiples of guide hoping someone else will do the same. Dave Anderson has probably done alright doing just that. Some guys have lost their shirts. But for every Dave Anderson there are a thousand collectors trying to find reasonably priced copies of books they would like to own. That's where the real "back issue market" is. And that market looks to be in very good health.

[dam60]

Okay JC you said:

Are comics a better investment than buying a case of beer? Yep.

 

Are comics a better investment than an old movie stub? Probably.

 

Are the profits from investing in CGC comics going to let you retire early or pay for your kid's education? Hardly, and you'll likely lose your shirt in the long run.

 

I said:

JC - I obviously have other investments that will be distributed as part of my estate, but let's face it - I spend about $100 a month on comic books (usually much more). Now I don't really go to the movies much, my GF doesn't drink (aka I don't drink), and the money that I am spending now would have gone to those two things in the past. Now I still view it that I am spending discretionary income on myself but instead of being stuck with a worthless movie ticket or on a long line to the bathroom, I have a comic book. I have to believe that the salvage value of a comic will be worth more than a used movie ticket. If the comic market crashed, I wouldn't be devestated as I want to keep my comics and I don't view them as liquid investments, but I wouldn't be thrilled either. Right now I am able to cycle out of stuff to fund new purchases, if that wasn't possible I would be a lot more hesitant about making the new purchases that I have. Example: I actually took a long box of Uncanny X-Men doubles and sold them to a dealer at the last NYC con for $75 in cash and $150 in trade. The trade went straight to Batman books and the cash went to Batman books and an art portfolio. If I couldn't sell, I wouldn't be as far as i am with my Batman run.

 

Come on now - read my post before you go on the whole end of the world tirade!

 

I never said that CGC comics were going to let me retire early or pay for my kid's education. In fact if you re-read my post (especially what I put in bold for you) you will see that you might have jumped the gun a bit too quick there.

 

DAM