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Timely valuation questions...

Started by october,

27 posts in this topic

october

october

Posted
Posted

My buddy has several restored Timelys that he is looking to value, and I said I would help him out by posting a few scans and details. These books are GORGEOUS in person, with very rich colors. I would grade them out at an average of App. 8.0, some slightly better or worse. Here are two examples and all were professional jobs. What percent of guide is reasonable here? The resto seems to be moderate to extensive, and a few have been trimmed (they were pulled from a bound volume). If you have any thoughts on these, I would love to hear them. Thanks in advance.

 

MM 29 notes...

 

Cover and pages cleaned. Spine chips replaced. Spine splits sealed, spine and staples reinforced. Small bindery holes sealed. Lower right corner replaced on front cover. Centerfold reinforced. Cover color touch. Pressed.

 

 

Cap 8 notes...

 

Cover cleaned. Interior pages water cleaned. Removal of glue from bindery holes. Cover and interior page holes filled. Cover color touch. Pressed.

 

NOTE: book trimmed.

 

 

MM29.jpg

 

MM29bk.jpg

 

 

 

cap8.jpg

 

cap8bk.jpg

 

 

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ArAich

ArAich

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Those books look great and since they are such high demand books I would think they would get near guide if they were CGC graded and put on the open market... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

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october

october

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Those books look great and since they are such high demand books I would think they would get near guide if they were CGC graded and put on the open market... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

He isn't particularly interested in slabbing the rest of them, since he subbed a few and felt CGC was too harsh on them. I haven't seen the slabbed ones yet (he hasn't gotten them back from Florida) so I couldn't say one way or the other. I do know that these look fantastic in-hand, and I couldn't see them getting anything lower than a 7.0/7.5. I would call them solid 8.0s.

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lou_fine

lou_fine

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Those books look great and since they are such high demand books I would think they would get near guide if they were CGC graded and put on the open market... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

He isn't particularly interested in slabbing the rest of them, since he subbed a few and felt CGC was too harsh on them. I haven't seen the slabbed ones yet (he hasn't gotten them back from Florida) so I couldn't say one way or the other. I do know that these look fantastic in-hand, and I couldn't see them getting anything lower than a 7.0/7.5. I would call them solid 8.0s.

 

No surprise here based upon what I feel are CGC's biases!

 

I feel CGC tends to give what I would called a pedigree bump to pedigree books and a resto knock to restored books. I have seen many overgraded pedigree books, but have yet to see an overgraded restored book.

 

From my point of view, CGC seems to go out of their way to whack the resto books by not only slapping them with a PLOD, but also grading them on a harsher scale than the so-called unrestored books.

 

As for getting near guide prices for moderately or extensively restored books, not sure what type of sales history you would be basing this on. I just don't see this happening at all in the current market environment with its still strong negative stigma against PLOD books.

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october

october

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Those books look great and since they are such high demand books I would think they would get near guide if they were CGC graded and put on the open market... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

He isn't particularly interested in slabbing the rest of them, since he subbed a few and felt CGC was too harsh on them. I haven't seen the slabbed ones yet (he hasn't gotten them back from Florida) so I couldn't say one way or the other. I do know that these look fantastic in-hand, and I couldn't see them getting anything lower than a 7.0/7.5. I would call them solid 8.0s.

 

No surprise here based upon what I feel are CGC's biases!

 

I feel CGC tends to give what I would called a pedigree bump to pedigree books and a resto knock to restored books. I have seen many overgraded pedigree books, but have yet to see an overgraded restored book.

 

From my point of view, CGC seems to go out of their way to whack the resto books by not only slapping them with a PLOD, but also grading them on a harsher scale than the so-called unrestored books.

 

As for getting near guide prices for moderately or extensively restored books, not sure what type of sales history you would be basing this on. I just don't see this happening at all in the current market environment with its still strong negative stigma against PLOD books.

 

What do you think would be a fair guide percentage then? 893scratchchin-thumb.gif 25%? 50%?

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CentaurMan

CentaurMan

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Well...then I guess my opinion would be that they would be valued at 85%-90% guide if slabbed and 70%-80% as is... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif JMO...

 

I'd be real surprised by this. I've seen a lot of high-grade extensively restored books get around Good/Good+ guide (with the buyer figuring the book was a Fair/Good before resto, so why pay much more afterwards?). For high-demand books like these, maybe you could go VG guide, but if they went much higher than that your buddy should be thrilled.

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october

october

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Well...then I guess my opinion would be that they would be valued at 85%-90% guide if slabbed and 70%-80% as is... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif JMO...

 

I'd be real surprised by this. I've seen a lot of high-grade extensively restored books get around Good/Good+ guide (with the buyer figuring the book was a Fair/Good before resto, so why pay much more afterwards?). For high-demand books like these, maybe you could go VG guide, but if they went much higher than that your buddy should be thrilled.

 

That's interesting. If that's true, what's the incentive to have books restored? If a hypothetical good sells for $500, and after $300 worth of resto to make it an 8.0 it still sells for $500, why have them worked on?

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Point Five

Point Five

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I have no knowledge of the high-end Timely market, but I would think any trimming would definitely set a ceiling around where CentaurMan indicates, given how negatively it's viewed in the market. Even for myself, the king of beater copies...restoration (if done well & priced appropriately) doesn't bother me at all, but I recently passed up a beautiful and affordable copy of one of my grails b/c of very slight trimming.

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lou_fine

lou_fine

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Well...then I guess my opinion would be that they would be valued at 85%-90% guide if slabbed and 70%-80% as is... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif JMO...

 

I'd be real surprised by this. I've seen a lot of high-grade extensively restored books get around Good/Good+ guide (with the buyer figuring the book was a Fair/Good before resto, so why pay much more afterwards?). For high-demand books like these, maybe you could go VG guide, but if they went much higher than that your buddy should be thrilled.

 

Yes, I would tend to agree with this.

 

Since GA books with slight resto are getting barely 50% of guide, I don't see how you can rationalize moderate or extensively restored books getting higher percentages to guide than that.

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rjpb

rjpb

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Tough call - I'd check past Heritage auctions, I'm sure they've sold enough Timelys with mod-ext. restoration to get an idea. A VG or less Timely with minor resto. might easily sell for full guide or better. Even with the heavier resto, those books look nice enough that I would guess they'd sell for around 4.0 guide in an auction setting - the Cap maybe a bit less as it is trimmed as well.

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CentaurMan

CentaurMan

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Tough call - I'd check past Heritage auctions, I'm sure they've sold enough Timelys with mod-ext. restoration to get an idea. A VG or less Timely with minor resto. might easily sell for full guide or better. Even with the heavier resto, those books look nice enough that I would guess they'd sell for around 4.0 guide in an auction setting - the Cap maybe a bit less as it is trimmed as well.

 

Absolutely. A lower grade restored book can go for full guide price, no problem, if it's in demand. Lower grade collectors just view resto as another type of "flaw" and it can be fully factored into the price at lower grading levels. It's the higher grade restored books that see significant problems getting Fine prices. HG collectors don't want them (because they aren't really high grade naturally), while lower grade collectors don't typically spend F/VF money and so aren't tempted to start on a frankenbook.

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CentaurMan

CentaurMan

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Well...then I guess my opinion would be that they would be valued at 85%-90% guide if slabbed and 70%-80% as is... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif JMO...

 

I'd be real surprised by this. I've seen a lot of high-grade extensively restored books get around Good/Good+ guide (with the buyer figuring the book was a Fair/Good before resto, so why pay much more afterwards?). For high-demand books like these, maybe you could go VG guide, but if they went much higher than that your buddy should be thrilled.

 

That's interesting. If that's true, what's the incentive to have books restored? If a hypothetical good sells for $500, and after $300 worth of resto to make it an 8.0 it still sells for $500, why have them worked on?

 

Why? Because the person getting the work done wants a better looking copy for himself (not for resale). Or because the resto is actually preventing further deterioration of a certain defect (like a tear). But getting cosmetic resto done for purposes of increasing the value of the book beyond the sum of the parts (unrestored price + resto cost)? Not wise, IMO, with where the market has been for a while.

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lou_fine

lou_fine

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Well...then I guess my opinion would be that they would be valued at 85%-90% guide if slabbed and 70%-80% as is... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif JMO...

 

I'd be real surprised by this. I've seen a lot of high-grade extensively restored books get around Good/Good+ guide (with the buyer figuring the book was a Fair/Good before resto, so why pay much more afterwards?). For high-demand books like these, maybe you could go VG guide, but if they went much higher than that your buddy should be thrilled.

 

That's interesting. If that's true, what's the incentive to have books restored? If a hypothetical good sells for $500, and after $300 worth of resto to make it an 8.0 it still sells for $500, why have them worked on?

 

October;

 

Collectors generally get their books restored so that they can have a nice looking copy to keep in their collection. Books are generally not restored for immediate resale since this is not anywhere close to the optimum method to get a return on your dollar.

 

The optimum method of getting a return through restoration is to put them through the Matt Nelson undisclosed restoration process whereby you would see immediate imPRESSive returns on your dollar.

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drbanner

drbanner

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Posted
Well...then I guess my opinion would be that they would be valued at 85%-90% guide if slabbed and 70%-80% as is... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif JMO...

 

I'd be real surprised by this. I've seen a lot of high-grade extensively restored books get around Good/Good+ guide (with the buyer figuring the book was a Fair/Good before resto, so why pay much more afterwards?). For high-demand books like these, maybe you could go VG guide, but if they went much higher than that your buddy should be thrilled.

 

That's interesting. If that's true, what's the incentive to have books restored? If a hypothetical good sells for $500, and after $300 worth of resto to make it an 8.0 it still sells for $500, why have them worked on?

I imagine most of these books were restored when the market priced the book exampled above at much closer to the 8.0 price, so if you were going to sell the book, it paid to have it restored. The market doesn't work that way any more, which is why I feel slightly restored GA books are a great value...your friend's books don't fall under the "slightly restored" category though. frown.gif

 

The incentive to have the book restored is to end up with a VF looking book for your collection, but at a G+ price.

 

I have several restored Timely's, and have had several restored Timely's that I sold. From my experience, the grades were consistent with unrestored Timely's I have seen, but I haven't see a lot of franken-books, which CGC might hammer on.

 

Ok, that said - anyone got any slightly restored Timely's for sale? 893crossfingers-thumb.gif

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october

october

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Well...then I guess my opinion would be that they would be valued at 85%-90% guide if slabbed and 70%-80% as is... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif JMO...

 

I'd be real surprised by this. I've seen a lot of high-grade extensively restored books get around Good/Good+ guide (with the buyer figuring the book was a Fair/Good before resto, so why pay much more afterwards?). For high-demand books like these, maybe you could go VG guide, but if they went much higher than that your buddy should be thrilled.

 

That's interesting. If that's true, what's the incentive to have books restored? If a hypothetical good sells for $500, and after $300 worth of resto to make it an 8.0 it still sells for $500, why have them worked on?

 

Why? Because the person getting the work done wants a better looking copy for himself (not for resale). Or because the resto is actually preventing further deterioration of a certain defect (like a tear). But getting cosmetic resto done for purposes of increasing the value of the book beyond the sum of the parts (unrestored price + resto cost)? Not wise, IMO, with where the market has been for a while.

 

Thanks for the input. This is the kind of info I am looking for. thumbsup2.gif

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october

october

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Win, Lou, Mike...

 

Thanks for the help guys. thumbsup2.gif

 

Lets use a specific example here, so I can get a more definite value. Take the MM 29 with moderate to extensive resto. I would put it at App. VF, and unrestored guide in that grade is $1294. What would you put this one at then? $400? $500?

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drbanner

drbanner

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Sorry Andy, my experiences were with mid-grade, slightly restored books so I don't really have anything comparable to draw on...Heritage archives or GPA are your best bets! thumbsup2.gif

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