Not Another Market Crash Thread....

[500Club]

pangea...

 

A truce is fine by me. Like lighthouse, I don't dislike you personally. I do, however, take issue with the fact that you arrived touting your academic credentials, intelligence, and experience, and then proceeded to lay down a poorly worded series of posts that were inaccurate and antagonistic. You are dealing with a group of well educated, experienced collectors here who will hold you accountable for these inaccuracies.

[pangea-migration]

I will take your advice and check thru some back threads. When I first came on I had no problems with any of the people here. What turned me hot was as Lighthouse mentioned. The blatant hijacking threads for the purpose of combat. Totally out of context to an individuals whole being. I will be more judicious in posting.

[500Club]

....when I first started on this forum I fought and fought about the positives about the comic book market. It seemed like I was a lone voice until I was given some interesting insight about forum members. I was told that the positive ones tend to keep silent.

 

Mushroom.... any time you need some back-up from one of the optimistic members of the board, LMK. I feel comics today are as good as they've ever been, and I really don't foresee any downturn in high-quality HG back issues, either.

 

You might be comforted to know that, despite their ongoing prophecies of doom, the most vocal pessimists here have continued to actively buy...

[pangea-migration]

Hello Lighthouse. What you mentioned is exactly what I had problems with when first arriving at this forum. I have no problem debating with you on topics but I do hope they are done in a gentleman type of manner. What turned me off and set me afire is exactly what you had mentioned "A hijacking of specific lines or threads taken out of context for the purpose of combat. One person in particular seems to enjoy that and I dont feel it is right considering the position involved.

I dont know why you would say anything I said was a lie. I have nothing to lie about. Im not gaining anything from this monetarily. I dont sell. I just buy and will sell when I figure Im 75 years old. My past experiences have been truthful. We had some interesting times.

In the efforts of truce, let me offer one up. For instance, I remember when I was lucky to be at a show just at the point where valiants started to turn down. There was a general worry before this show but It was almost like you could see the look on dealers faces at this show because even their keys were not moving. they were generally concerned. I went back to the store and explained this and we sold about 70 % of our valiants by the next weekend. Some at maybe 5% discount just to unload. Without the LUCK of being at the show we would nt had realized that it was time and would have gotten stuck with them. Funny thing is that there was no true fact or figure stating the comics were going to dive at that point. Only what I would call as in bodybuilding ( Joe Weiders Instinctive principle). One just somehow had a feeling of what was going to happen from nothing moving that day and still seeing all the keys on dealers walls. One gent had 9 magnus 12s all lined up on his top rack. Not bragging or any lie. Just an interesting memory of back then.

If you want to make a deal and say that you can call me on something and we can debate it. That would be fine. I would expect no less from a comic warrior. But, I do expect it that you will enter into thoughts without as we both agree "Hijacking specific lines".

So, do we have a Deal?????

[pangea-migration]

My academic credentials were only put down for one reason and that was in defense of one "gent" who treated me like a insufficiently_thoughtful_person by pulling threads out of context to prove his point. What I should have done was post to him directly and not on board otherwise credentials would have never been posted. We all know someone can be a rocket scientist in one field and not be too swift in another. But, when you are taken out of context by another person on purpose just to prove a point, its just not right. For my first post it got me pretty hot. I had wished to offer debate and or thoughts to be debated. Do some studies as well. The problem seems to be people seem to throw alot of one liners at each other on this board.

[pangea-migration]

Okay Doc,

A truce it is. Ive nothing against you either. As in my first post. I dont feel a doom or gloom prediction. Only a market correction and then back to going up. If you feel differently, that would be fine. But, we are on the same page and yes, I as well continue to buy for the long term. Otherwise, I would not be on this forum trying to figure out what is moving next and book indicators to figure otherwise. So, lets put idea forth and see what we can accomplish.

Deal???

[delekkerste]

You might be comforted to know that, despite their ongoing prophecies of doom, the most vocal pessimists here have continued to actively buy...

 

Doc: For the record, I'm no longer an active buyer...I think I've been cold turkey for 3 months now (the one recent comic buy on my eBay feedback is for an old transaction and all the other recent purchases are for comic art...nary a CGC purchase in sight!) I am reading and enjoying comics as much as ever, but, to be honest, I am pretty saddened with the state of the high-grade market. Many books can't be sold at any price while a narrow swath of the universe trades in the stratosphere. Beyond the greed and speculative frenzy, though, the egos are out of control. Way too much putting down and condescending to fellow collectors (especially those not willing to drink the Kool-Aid and part so easily with their hard-earned money), way too much emphasis on CGC labels and way too much chest-thumping and number-dropping about purchases. It seems as though profit potential and bragging rights rule the day.

 

Doc & Mushroom: As for the crash that is supposedly never coming, I think me and Donut have proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that there has been a crash for a huge portion of the comic universe (except for those who believe that a decline of 60-95% is not a crash if it merely returns prices to "normal" levels...tell that to the guy who bought at the top), so let's not rehash that. As for what's to come, let's not extrapolate the less than 6 months Mushroom has been posting on this Board to "forever"...just because Silver has remained pretty strong and Bronze keys like Hulk #181 are going parabolic does not mean that Ninanina is right and we'll see $20,000 Hulk #181 9.4s in 19 years and change. There are a lot of secular factors that will work against comics during that timeframe (you can find a brief summary at: http://members.ebay.com/aboutme/de-lekkerste/). You might not see the effects in 5 months and change. I think you will, though, when you look back 5 years and change from now.

 

Gene

[FlyingDonut]

You might be comforted to know that, despite their ongoing prophecies of doom, the most vocal pessimists here have continued to actively buy...

 

Doc: For the record, I'm no longer an active buyer...I think I've been cold turkey for 3 months now (the one recent comic buy on my eBay feedback is for an old transaction and all the other recent purchases are for comic art...nary a CGC purchase in sight!) I am reading and enjoying comics as much as ever, but, to be honest, I am pretty saddened with the state of the high-grade market. Many books can't be sold at any price while a narrow swath of the universe trades in the stratosphere. Beyond the greed and speculative frenzy, though, the egos are out of control. Way too much putting down and condescending to fellow collectors (especially those not willing to drink the Kool-Aid and part so easily with their hard-earned money), way too much emphasis on CGC labels and way too much chest-thumping and number-dropping about purchases. It seems as though profit potential and bragging rights rule the day.

 

Doc & Mushroom: As for the crash that is supposedly never coming, I think me and Donut have proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that there has been a crash for a huge portion of the comic universe (except for those who believe that a decline of 60-95% is not a crash if it merely returns prices to "normal" levels...tell that to the guy who bought at the top), so let's not rehash that. As for what's to come, let's not extrapolate the less than 6 months Mushroom has been posting on this Board to "forever"...just because Silver has remained pretty strong and Bronze keys like Hulk #181 are going parabolic does not mean that Ninanina is right and we'll see $20,000 Hulk #181 9.4s in 19 years and change. There are a lot of secular factors that will work against comics during that timeframe (you can find a brief summary at: http://members.ebay.com/aboutme/de-lekkerste/). You might not see the effects in 5 months and change. I think you will, though, when you look back 5 years and change from now.

 

Gene

 

I am actively buying, but only a few things - CGC 9.8 Fantastic Fours 156-175, as those are "my" books, and ECs. Graded ECs, outside of the insane Heritage Gaines File prices, are actually a pretty good buy right now. Go raw, young man!

[localshop]

Not to take this TOO far off topic, but... what do you consider a minimum for the graded ECs? As you point out the Gaines Files are oh my god expensive! I hope to buy ONE in my lifetime!

[FlyingDonut]

Not to take this TOO far off topic, but... what do you consider a minimum for the graded ECs? As you point out the Gaines Files are oh my god expensive! I hope to buy ONE in my lifetime!

 

I have a Gaines File CGC 5.5 Crime Suspenstories 13 (9/12) (which looks much nicer! Why is this only a 5.5? ) that I paid a bit for. I also have an Impact 5 Gaines File 9.2 that can be YOURS for $500.

 

I'd like to get some other Gaines Files - I missed a Crime Suspenstories 23 9.4 that went for $750, which I think is an absolute steal. I'd be interested to see what the Heritage ones go for, as I think they're outrageously priced.

[500Club]

Okay Doc,

A truce it is. Ive nothing against you either. As in my first post. I dont feel a doom or gloom prediction. Only a market correction and then back to going up. If you feel differently, that would be fine. But, we are on the same page and yes, I as well continue to buy for the long term. Otherwise, I would not be on this forum trying to figure out what is moving next and book indicators to figure otherwise. So, lets put idea forth and see what we can accomplish.

Deal???

 

Deal ... and I think we've seen the correction. See my responses to Gene below.

[500Club]

Gene.... glad to see you're still active on the forum here... on to debating some of your points....

 

I am reading and enjoying comics as much as ever,

 

Yeah, whatever else can be said, this is certainly a good time to be a reader. Miracle of miracles, even the crop of Tsunami books are good....

 

As for the crash that is supposedly never coming, I think me and Donut have proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that there has been a crash for a huge portion of the comic universe (except for those who believe that a decline of 60-95% is not a crash if it merely returns prices to "normal" levels...tell that to the guy who bought at the top), so let's not rehash that.

 

Let's rehash it. What proof did you and Donut offer? By proof, I don't mean anecdotal evidence.... Yes, certain segments of the market have dropped off. Spawn 1, anyone? But the books that matter have not seen the 60-90% drop that you claim. For the record, I agree with Donut's guidelines to which books have 'crashed'. Do these books matter? The key and quality books that make up the backbone of the CGC market certainly haven't slid to that extent. To back up my argument, I refer to the CBG price multiples, which sample the market reasonably broadly pre-1990, and have not declined to the extent you suggest.

 

just because Silver has remained pretty strong and Bronze keys like Hulk #181 are going parabolic does not mean that Ninanina is right and we'll see $20,000 Hulk #181 9.4s in 19 years and change. There are a lot of secular factors that will work against comics during that timeframe (you can find a brief summary at: http://members.ebay.com/aboutme/de-lekkerste/). You might not see the effects in 5 months and change. I think you will, though, when you look back 5 years and change from now.

 

This is ultimately the point we come to.... wait and see. The points you make are well thought out, and make sense....

[hogations]

I'd like to get some other Gaines Files - I missed a Crime Suspenstories 23 9.4 that went for $750, which I think is an absolute steal. I'd be interested to see what the Heritage ones go for, as I think they're outrageously priced.

 

Holy [!@#%^&^]! Was the 9.4 on eBay? I've always been on the lookout for a nice upgrade - and it's one of the tougher issues to get at anywhere near guide.

[delekkerste]

Let's rehash it. What proof did you and Donut offer? By proof, I don't mean anecdotal evidence.... Yes, certain segments of the market have dropped off

 

 

Doc, not sure when you started buying CGC books, but anyone who was around in 2000 through the 1st half of 2001, when anything above a 9.0 would sell for multiples of Guide, knows that multiples have compressed like crazy. If you doubt me, try selling any non-key 9.2s or below these days, try covering your slabbing costs on just about any Modern 9.4 or below, try getting the huge premiums 9.6s used to fetch when few could afford to play in the 9.8 sandbox for more recent books or try getting the prices common 9.8s fetched when 9.8s were actually rare on eBay (yes, it's easy to forget those days when even Modern 9.8s were not a dime a dozen).

 

The CBG multiples are extremely misleading because a huge portion of the slabbed comic universe will not fetch prices that make sense for sellers to sell online (and when they do list, they go unsold)...so, there has been a self-selection bias in that only the readily salable material goes up for auction, gets sold and is counted in the data. You may say that the overwhelming majority of books that fall into this category do not matter...I say they do, because over time, the breadth of the advance in the comic market is getting narrower and narrower as once-hot books like common Miller Daredevils in 9.6 and 9.8 have fallen by the wayside (I have documented on my "Me" page several times how these and other once-hot books have fallen as much as 90+% from their peaks). This is creating a two-tiered market whereby a lot of stuff is cheap and illiquid while other books trade for multiples of their weight in 24K gold (this is not an exaggeration...Hulk #181 CGC 9.6s are selling for the equivalent of a FULL POUND of gold bullion).

 

Market inefficiencies like this do not last forever...it would be foolish to look at the short (relatively speaking) boom in comic prices (which occurred during a secular boom in demographics and economic advancement) and extrapolate this indefinitely into the future when there are plenty of warning signs on the wall (e.g., while the quality of books is generally high these days, unit sales continue to slide and interest among the next generation is almost nil). That would be like basing your forecast of the stock market solely on the 1982-2000 period and ignoring the bigger cycles, which include spectacular busts like 1929-1932. The comic market has not been around long enough to experience the flip side of the cycle...I think it's coming. As for the timing, that is never certain, though I'm pretty sure we'll have seen it before 2023 (by which time certain people will have you believe that Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 will be a $20K book... )

 

Gene

[drbanner]

Terminator, Valiants, Spawn 1, Spider-man 1, "New" X-men, McFarlane Spideys, Wolverine (MS) 1, Miller DD's, just about any book published after 1975...high-grade CGC copies of these books have crashed in price since their heyday without a doubt. If you're heavy into this type of market, your comic book world has crashed. BUT...the raw back issue comic book market has not crashed, the CGC high-grade Gold/Silver/early and key Bronze market has not crashed, and the CGC low/mid-grade Gold/Silver/Bronze market has not crashed (there was never really a premium for CGC copies of these books to begin with).

 

I've always been in the bear camp regarding post-75 books, and continue to think that even ultra-high grade gold and silver have simply reached a glass ceiling when you consider the pool of collectors/investors (whatever you want to call them) that can spend what it takes to get a NM copy of Hulk 181 or a VF or better Hulk/Spidey/FF 1. I wonder how many "minimum-wage-hours" it would take to buy these books today compared to 3, 5, 10 years ago???

 

However, there's a difference between shooting the messenger and shooting the message. I appreciate the presentation of Gene's posts and agree with him (for the most part). I don't agree with criticizing other collectors, questioning people's motives and motivations, calling new forum members names and attacking them if they don't agree with you, and generally spreading ill-will about the hobby and the institutions that support it (ebay, Paypal, Overstreet, Wizard, etc.,.). I love the hobby and feel these boards should be used to share information, learn from others, discuss (not necessarily agree) various aspects of it, and promote it, not tear it a new one...

 

As for you pangea, feel free to voice your opinions and I'll do the same! But if you want to come around here and jump on Joe's bandwagon of hate, then I'm going to stand up for my hobby.

[500Club]

Doc, not sure when you started buying CGC books, but anyone who was around in 2000 through the 1st half of 2001, when anything above a 9.0 would sell for multiples of Guide, knows that multiples have compressed like crazy.

 

Early 2000 - I was around from the inception and have seen the whole CGC trend from birth to now. In fact, when I got here, the dearly departed Joe and I agreed that the cut off grades for CGC multiples would probably be 9.8 modern, 9.4-9.6 bronze and 9.2 to 9.4 silver. Anything below that would see a significant drop.

 

The CBG multiples are extremely misleading because a huge portion of the slabbed comic universe will not fetch prices that make sense for sellers to sell online (and when they do list, they go unsold)...so, there has been a self-selection bias in that only the readily salable material goes up for auction, gets sold and is counted in the data.

 

I'll counter that with the 'held book' bias - those quality books now tucked into collections that don't/won't factor into the numbers. T Brulato's books would be an example of this.

 

 

 

over time, the breadth of the advance in the comic market is getting narrower and narrower as once-hot books like common Miller Daredevils in 9.6 and 9.8 have fallen by the wayside (I have documented on my "Me" page several times how these and other once-hot books have fallen as much as 90+% from their peaks). This is creating a two-tiered market whereby a lot of stuff is cheap and illiquid

 

i.e. a reflection of the overall comic market. Premiums are paid for raw books in the same way. At this point, CGC book sales have begun to parallel the market as a whole. If the book can be found in $1 bins in nice shape (McF Spidey 1) forget about slabbing and selling for a premium.

 

there are plenty of warning signs on the wall (e.g., while the quality of books is generally high these days, unit sales continue to slide and interest among the next generation is almost nil). That would be like basing your forecast of the stock market solely on the 1982-2000 period and ignoring the bigger cycles, which include spectacular busts like 1929-1932. The comic market has not been around long enough to experience the flip side of the cycle...I think it's coming.

 

Production wise, the comic market has seen down trends in the 50s and 70s. Collectible value-wise, you're correct.... the only sizeable drop-off I can recall is the slack market of the mid 90s. Are we ready for a fall? Perhaps. But until I see prices paid falling on truly HTF stuff that is not readily available in dealer backstock, I won't be heading for the hills.

 

And no, I don't foresee the 20K Hulk 181 9.4, but I didn't foresee it selling for 2.5K this summer either.

 

Anyway, I'm off for a 2wk holiday.... have a good summer, and best of luck in SD (if you go).

[Bonds25]

I'd like to get some other Gaines Files - I missed a Crime Suspenstories 23 9.4 that went for $750, which I think is an absolute steal. I'd be interested to see what the Heritage ones go for, as I think they're outrageously priced.

 

Holy [!@#%^&^]! Was the 9.4 on eBay? I've always been on the lookout for a nice upgrade - and it's one of the tougher issues to get at anywhere near guide.

 

Good luck getting any Gaines File Copies at the Heritage auctions. I was high bidder at $1000 on the Crime Supsenstories #22 in CGC 9.0 (books for $220), and now all of a sudden it's at $1,700. Eight times guide for a 9.0 copy? I highly doubt it.

[hogations]

Good luck getting any Gaines File Copies at the Heritage auctions. I was high bidder at $1000 on the Crime Supsenstories #22 in CGC 9.0 (books for $220), and now all of a sudden it's at $1,700. Eight times guide for a 9.0 copy? I highly doubt it.

 

I just check out Heritage and it's now at $1800 (not me) That book in particular is a mystery to me in the price guide. Arguably the most shocking EC cover (and one of the best known), yet, it doesn't command much of a premium? It's another EC book that you always see at muliples of guide regardless of grade.

[Rip]

I sold my VG copy with ease for $175 on e-bay. He used the BIN

[Bonds25]

I just check out Heritage and it's now at $1800 (not me) That book in particular is a mystery to me in the price guide. Arguably the most shocking EC cover (and one of the best known), yet, it doesn't command much of a premium? It's another EC book that you always see at muliples of guide regardless of grade.

 

I know the guide price is a joke, but I didn't think a 9.0 copy would sell for nearly 8 times guide price!