Okay, so what exactly crashed?

[Aman619]

buy an dhold is best I agree...but it doesnt wipe away paying way way way too much. That adds years to your sentence like bad behaviour!!

[Kevin76]

The reason why that guy sold his ASM 1-100 run in 9.0 and better on Heritage is becuase of business reasons,not becuase the market is crashing,He needed money like yesterday,from what I heard from a legit source Kevin

[rob_react]

Anyone foolish enough to have bought heavily at the height of Spider-mania would suffer similar losses were they forced to sell, motivations aside. Some of those purchases are at least a couple of years away from treading water. Some more. Some bronze/ modern books may never recover their movie hype "value."

 

In hindsight, it's easy to say that he shouldn't have bought at the height of the hype, since hindsight is 20/20. But at the same time, many of those books came out only at that time, and if you're looking to put together a top tier run, you have to move when stuff becomes available or you may not get another shot for a long time. How many ASM #3's in 9.4 are available, or ASM #5's in 9.6? So to get those books, you have to move when they move, and books like that will always be most likely to come out during hype.

 

So yes, he bought high, but the caliber of some of those books is unsurpassed. I don't think buying high is what screwed him, but selling the way he did and at the time he did is what did him in. I think most of us could see that he was going to lose as soon as the books were first previewed on the Heritage site and the catalogue. So it stands to reason that he knew he was going to lose as well. Listing a run like that at Christmas? Only a lunatic would expect to make money. So as far as I can see, it must have been a necessity. Otherwise, why wouldn't he have at least listed high reserves on books like the ASM #5 9.6 MASS(in which he lost about 10K) when he could have just sat on the book.

 

So I wouldn't necessarily be quick to call him foolish without knowing the full story. To me, it seems more unfortunate than anything else. Again, I may be wrong since I don't know the full story either, but that's just how I see it.

 

I'm sympathetic. I feel bad for him. He had great books and ran into some bad luck. None of that means I have to think he made good choices buying when he did.

 

I might have worded that a little strongly- "foolish", but buying those books when he did put him at a HUGE disadvantage financially, as his six figure loss proves. There is easily spotted financial risk that comes with buying at a time like that. You have to be able to HOLD books if you're buying them at their peak, otherwise you're taking on added risk. This is basic. It's not like the movie hype boom and bust phenomenon is a new thing. Anyone who's tossing money around like that should know that there is a HUGE spike in prices that comes along with a movie. It's like clockwork. It'd be one thing if money was really no object, but for this guy it obviously wasn't.

 

He's not alone. There are plenty of people who paid record prices for ASMs in the perfect storm of CGC heat and movie hype. Those folks are under water too, hoping time/ hype will coincide again and they can at least get their money back.

 

I have to add that I was actually defending him against the dreaded "s-word," speculator.

[COI]

might have worded that a little strongly- "foolish", but buying those books when he did put him at a HUGE disadvantage financially, as his six figure loss proves. There is easily spotted financial risk that comes with buying at a time like that. You have to be able to HOLD books if you're buying them at their peak, otherwise you're taking on added risk. This is basic. It's not like the movie hype boom and bust phenomenon is a new thing. Anyone who's tossing money around like that should know that there is a HUGE spike in prices that comes along with a movie. It's like clockwork. It'd be one thing if money was really no object, but for this guy it obviously wasn't.

 

When it comes down to it, buying a run like that can be a double edged sword. On the one hand, buying at high times is a considerable financial risk(as you said) but at the same time it takes hype to get books like that to surface, and it takes paying VERY competitive, hype-driven bids to get those books in your collection. Either way, it's a losing situation in the short term, and it's obvious he may have bitten off a little more than he could chew.

 

I actually think it's a shame that run had to be broken up. I don't think there could be more than a couple of existing runs that are even close to that caliber.

 

[Kevin76]

Some books do take a movie to get books in the marketplace,then you have to bid high or offer high to get what you want,A dealer told me once "sometimes you have to pay high,to get what you really want" that is so true,but as far as his ASM run goes,I don't think you are going to see some of those books from that collection for a long,long time.I 'm trying to put together a journey into mystery run in 9.0 and better,it's getting very expensive and hard to locate certain issues I need,I can't fin a 9.0+ copy of JIM 112 anywhere or any of the Journeys in the #80's and early 90's.But once I have the collection,I won't be selling any of it.So the point is really is what is on the census and what is avalible is 2 different things,Since the guy sold his Spidey run and used it for, I guess building a business,In the long rum he may have the last laugh since if it's successful,he could recoup all his losses and come out on top as a multi-millionaire.I send him my support

[Aman619]

but if he runs his business like he ran his comics investments...well, you know where Im going here.

[Tomega]

I just got a X-men 45 in CGC 9.4 for $146.50? So did I luck out or is this part of the crash?

 

 

Actually it is a sign that prices are becoming what they should be, I just cannot understand why some dealers still want 5 to 6 times guide for CGC's. I have been purchasing a lot of CGC'd X-men in the last two months. Here is the pricing:

X-Men 24 CGC 9.4 $306.17

X-Men 26 CGC 9.4 $326.00

X-Men 32 CGC 9.4 $242.50

X-Men 37 CGC 9.4 $241.50

X-Men 38 CGC 9.4 $242.89

X-Men 41 CGC 9.4 $325.00

X-Men 45 CGC 9.4 $146.50

X-Men 45 CGC 9.4 $208.50

X-Men 45 CGC 9.6 $301.89

X-Men 50 CGC, 9.4 $255.00

X-Men 54 CGC, 9.4 $265.00

X-Men 55 CGC, 9.4 $225.00

X-Men 55 CGC, 9.4 $285.00

X-Men 67 CGC 9.4 $154.07

X-Men 69 CGC 9.4 $154.07

X-Men 74 CGC 9.4 $140.07

X-Men 77 CGC 9.4 $103.50

X-Men 86 CGC 9.4 $132.50

X-Men 87 CGC 9.4 $147.29

 

I think it will average out that I paid about 2X guide, what they should be selling for. Some I probably did over pay a bit but most of them are a true reflection of prices. So market crash - no, market price adjustment - yes.

 

 

 

Tom

[Kevin76]

I just cannot understand why some dealers still want 5 to 6 times guide for CGC's

 

It all depends on the book and it's rarity Tom. An X-men 25 in 9.4 is not going to get the same multiple of guide as a X-men 12 in 9.4. Bob Storms sold his X-men #12 9.4 for 3K.

[BachelorOfComix]

I just cannot understand why some dealers still want 5 to 6 times guide for CGC's.

Aren't there dealers out there who charge that much for raw books?

[greggy]

I just cannot understand why some dealers still want 5 to 6 times guide for CGC's.

Aren't there dealers out there who charge that much for raw books?

 

[BachelorOfComix]

[Kevin76]

Aren't there dealers out there who charge that much for raw books?

 

Yup..Bechara does.

[jonnydouble]

Aren't there dealers out there who charge that much for raw books?

 

Yup..Bechara does.

 

I never paid more than 2 or 2.5 times for a raw book from Bechara....but I have seen other dealers sell 5-10 times guide for raw...most notably: Heroes and Dragons and Harley Yee.

 

J.D.

[sfilosa]

Regarding the X-Men you bought Tomega, nice collection. I do an analysis of most Silver-Age Marvel runs and by far X-Men get the least premium. They average around 3 times guide for CGC NM (9.4) where as most others titles average 3.5 to 4 times guide. And, Journey Into Mystery averages much higher (not many NM sales to use in my analysis).

 

Also, any X-Men reprint book (after 67 I think), really shouldn't have much premium attached to it. Back in the 70's and 80's these books were considered "nothing" as they are reprints. Now, because people want full runs, or the books are in NM, they are collectible, but I'm not sure if that trend will continue. I for one have no interested in those books but love the Steranko, Smith and Adams issues you have.

 

 

[g-man]

Aren't there dealers out there who charge that much for raw books?

 

Yup..Bechara does.

 

I never paid more than 2 or 2.5 times for a raw book from Bechara....but I have seen other dealers sell 5-10 times guide for raw...most notably: Heroes and Dragons and Harley Yee.

 

J.D.

 

is it getting to the point that to find (let alone purchase) a high grade (9.6 or better) key book from a dealer, it will most likely be already slabbed? how often to people find raw books in this condition at dealer's talbes? Now i am sure that they can be found at shows and collector's tables who have decided to sell but more often than not these have been raided long b4 the show opens. Last book i found raw was a Hulk #109 that came back a 9.6.

[fantastic_four]

I just got a X-men 45 in CGC 9.4 for $146.50? So did I look out or is this part of the crash?

 

X-Men 45 was part of the Mile High 2 set of returned comics and is much more common in 9.0 and above than most other X-Men issues.

[Tomega]

Regarding the X-Men you bought Tomega, nice collection. I do an analysis of most Silver-Age Marvel runs and by far X-Men get the least premium. They average around 3 times guide for CGC NM (9.4) where as most others titles average 3.5 to 4 times guide. And, Journey Into Mystery averages much higher (not many NM sales to use in my analysis).

 

Also, any X-Men reprint book (after 67 I think), really shouldn't have much premium attached to it. Back in the 70's and 80's these books were considered "nothing" as they are reprints. Now, because people want full runs, or the books are in NM, they are collectible, but I'm not sure if that trend will continue. I for one have no interested in those books but love the Steranko, Smith and Adams issues you have.

 

 

I see what you are saying about X-men getting the lower premium on eBay but some dealers still advertise 5 to 6 times guide. Most of what I see on eBay is about 3 times guide on most silver Marvels. But it does depend on title, you are right - I have always found the early JIM hard to find. I think you may be wrong on the X-men reprints and you listed the reason - they were all considered nothing at one point. So a lot of them ended up in bargain bins and such - there are not a lot of higher grade issues of them compared to other issues of the same time period. At least , that is what I find. I have had a harder time in finding those issues then some of the early issues. I am a completist (spelling?) when it comes to Marvel runs so the reprints are just as important to me ( I think most people would agree with your prespective on the reprints though.)

Tom

[Tomega]

I just got a X-men 45 in CGC 9.4 for $146.50? So did I look out or is this part of the crash?

 

X-Men 45 was part of the Mile High 2 set of returned comics and is much more common in 9.0 and above than most other X-Men issues.

 

I can see that it is a bit more common but I only got this for about $30 over guide, do you know of any dealer who will sell me more at that price? I loved to pick up more at that price

 

Tom

[sfilosa]

Tomega.

 

I think you got a very good price on the X-Men #45.

 

One if you are buying it for part of your collection, you've added a nice high grade copy to it.

 

Second, if you plan on selling it eventually, more than likely, unless another copy is being sold at the same time, someone will pay a higher premium than you did.

 

I myself purchased a DD#9 in CGC NM a month ago for around $330 (which was less than double guide). This book also is fairly easy to find, but two weeks later another CGC NM copy sold for $399, so buying low, even on more common books is always a good thing.

 

Also, you are probably correct that it is harder to find high grade copies of the reprint X-Men. Also realize, since the price is lower, there is also less incentive to get certified or sell. If I was a completionist on that title, I would get them last unless you get a dirt cheap price (just my opinion).

[fantastic_four]

I can see that it is a bit more common but I only got this for about $30 over guide, do you know of any dealer who will sell me more at that price? I loved to pick up more at that price

 

I don't see many dealers who acknowledge via lower prices that some Silver issues are more common than others. I always figured it was either out of ignorance, or more likely, for the same reason that Chuck won't tell you which copies were a part of Mile High 2--if buyers don't know, why compromise your selling position by telling them?