Cap #46 bidding officially out of control

[rjpb]

Check it out

 

Hard to say, but this copy looks to be about a 5.0.

With the record prices this book has been seeing will more come out of the woodwork?

 

It's starting to look like a replay of the mid 90s when VG copies of Cap #74 shot up to 2K or so. Then prices took a slight dip and took a decade to get back to their previous highs. In the meantime it went from a book that was rarely for sale to one that was fairly easy to find if you could pay the freight.

[mikephoen]

I bid with about 15 seconds left and finished a distant 5th. Until a few weeks ago, I had never seen this cover, and now I'm bidding multiples of guide for it.... and still not winning it. My estimate of grade was a little lower than yours though... I was hoping it would pull in a 4.0, but it looked like a fairly bad tear at the staple, and that foxing along the spine also detracted from the eye-appeal. Anyone know the winner? I would be interested to know what CGC gives it, assuming the winner intends to have it CGCed.

[The Black Hand ®]

I've known about this book for a long time. It's the only comic I know of that shows the Nazi ovens used to burn the jews during the Holocaust. It's an amazing piece of history, but a lot of people probably only see dollar signs when they look at it.

[*paull*]

If that guy really did buy that at an estate sale, he just made a massive profit.

[Silver Surfer]

Does seem to be a tad expensive for that grade, no? Is this book really that hard to find?

[rjpb]

I probably should have written 5.0 tops, though outside of the spine it looked pretty nice. Pix are gone now unfortunately.

It's been on my want list for over a decade and used to be the sort of book one saw for sale on ebay every couple of years, but there were 3 copies listed in the last month.

 

I had resigned myself to probably having to pay 3X guide for a 2.0-3.0 copy, but looks like it will more like 4X guide or more if I want one now. I think I'll wait. I love the cover, but these days have a hard time justifying spending 5 figures on a comic.

[bluechip]

This book is a good example of how obsessing about grade instead of content and how believing in the guide can steer you totally wrong. The book is not interesting or amazing or historic because it's corners are sharp, or because it has no spine splits, etc. It is amazing because it's a one of kind and it hit the stands at a historic moment, etc.

 

Neither should be it be valued based on what similar issues (45 and 47) go for. While a completist might want all issues fairly equally, there are most likely many times the people interested in owning a 46 as there are in owning a 45 or 47. So generally in situations where many times as many people are looking for it, the book is many times more valuable. Yet the guide generally puts a relatively small incremental value on standout issues in a series, and people look at the guide when biding and say but the guide says.... and they are afraid to bid what they might if the guide actually reflected what people are willing to pay. I've owned this book a few times and remember passing on copies earlier because they were over guide and people were insistent the guide was correct. So I passed on those but still retain a low grade copy. And while I would probably have to sell at the prices we've seen lately, I would not at several multiples of the good listing because it's not relevant. The point of this, I suppose, is to ask the question... why doesn't the guide pay any attention when the big standout books like cap 46 and others, like cap 13, captain marvel 66, etc. clearly are sought after by people and bring many times the prices of the series numerical cousins?

[skybolt]

The point of this, I suppose, is to ask the question... why doesn't the guide pay any attention when the big standout books like cap 46 and others, like cap 13, captain marvel 66, etc. clearly are sought after by people and bring many times the prices of the series numerical cousins?

 

I agree. Especially since these classic covers, important issues have had over 60 years to break out from the surrounding issues. If the OS guide can note and separate out the first appearance of a third rate bronze age character, then they can certainly do the same for GA books that have significant value and importance.

[rjpb]

Even when the guide breaks out such issues (as with Cap#46) it often assigns a premium of only 25-50% over the value of surrounding issues, where the demand should reflect multiples of the value of the surrounding issues. Eventually as with many classic pre-code horror covers, and long established superhero books like All-American #61, the guide begins to catch up with the "real value" of some of these books, but others, such as Superman #14, still show a marginal premium.

[thedude]

it's the same way with alot of the Action Comics WW 2 covers,.. from #40- #50, the guide only breaks out #40 (first Star Spangled kid and Stripesy, woo hoo) , #42 (1st Vigilante), and #47 (first Luthor cover), when in reality, the war covers of 40, 43, 44, 48, always go for more than those surrounding issues from 40-50, I'm just using this run of Actions as an example, but it also applies to alot of other runs of GA books,

 

sorry for dirtying up the Timely Cap thread with talk of DC Actions..

[bluechip]

Actually talk of the DC actions are appropriate for the discussion. Years ago I found most of the action war covers, and still missing only a few. But every time one comes up it goes for way above guide, and I found myself wondering if I need to resell it will I have to endure one of those conversations about how much it is in the guide.

[thedude]

and I found myself wondering if I need to resell it will I have to endure one of those conversations about how much it is in the guide.

 

I think that if you listed them for sale on these boards that you wouldn't have to endure one of those conversations, as those who collect them, pretty much know what price should be paid.

[Point Five]

it's the same way with alot of the Action Comics WW 2 covers,.. from #40- #50, the guide only breaks out #40 (first Star Spangled kid and Stripesy, woo hoo) , #42 (1st Vigilante), and #47 (first Luthor cover), when in reality, the war covers of 40, 43, 44, 48, always go for more than those surrounding issues from 40-50...

 

Great examples, Alton, and I totally agree. A lot of the Overstreet "breakout" annotations of GA runs are holdouts from the 1980s guides, and should probably be scrapped/overhauled completely...

[skybolt]

it's the same way with alot of the Action Comics WW 2 covers,.. from #40- #50, the guide only breaks out #40 (first Star Spangled kid and Stripesy, woo hoo) , #42 (1st Vigilante), and #47 (first Luthor cover), when in reality, the war covers of 40, 43, 44, 48, always go for more than those surrounding issues from 40-50...

 

Great examples, Alton, and I totally agree. A lot of the Overstreet "breakout" annotations of GA runs are holdouts from the 1980s guides, and should probably be scrapped/overhauled completely...

 

Overstreet can't use the excuse of limited sales data in today's world, since the Internet and CGC has changed all that. If Overstreet advisors can sell these books at multiples of guide, then something has to give. I run into the same problem with GGA books like Brenda Starr #14, Blue Beetle #54 and many more classic covers.

[ComicsAndCode]

The point of this, I suppose, is to ask the question... why doesn't the guide pay any attention when the big standout books like cap 46 and others, like cap 13, captain marvel 66, etc. clearly are sought after by people and bring many times the prices of the series numerical cousins?

 

I agree. Especially since these classic covers, important issues have had over 60 years to break out from the surrounding issues. If the OS guide can note and separate out the first appearance of a third rate bronze age character, then they can certainly do the same for GA books that have significant value and importance.

 

So why doesn't the Overstreet price for the Cap 46 reflect the book's historical relevance and let its value stand out among the surrounding books? Matter of time until someone in the industry mentions it to them?

 

Peter

[Durden08]

I've been wondering for years why the Overstreet price guide doesn't seem to reflect real world values accurrately on many books. To many experienced collectors, the guide holds little relevance when deciding what to pay for a book, especially in Golden Age. If the price guide is NOT based on actual sales statistics, then how are their prices determined? Just some arbitrary number they started at that years ago that is increased roughly 2% every year?

 

Another book similar to Marvel Mystery #46 is TEC #35. TEC 35 in VG has gone up like 2% each of the last three years, and a VG copy now "guides" for $2,112. This pricing is way off the mark, as this book will typically sell for 3-4 times guide easily. To new or novice collectors in the hobby that look to the price guide for guidence on buying or selling this book will be disappointed.

 

Granted it's an awfully difficult job to estimate values on so many books, but that's were I'd like to see improvement. I know the "it's just a guide" arguement, but I think many collectors would hold the guide in higher importance if the numbers weren't largely cookie cutter increases each year.

[Scrooge]

Well, how else can a dealer justify to pay so little for a Cap Am 46 to turn around and sell it at a premium to people who know it's off in the guide ... It's been a cynical kind of day for me ...

[*paull*]

In my opinion, it appears to me that absolutely no effort goes into adjusting GA prices to reflect individual books that gain steam. There's a long list of classic cover-ed books that are way below market price in the guide. It's so bad that I've stopped buying the guide.

[rjpb]

Pretty much all guide values are pulled out of someone's posterior as far as I can tell. They are somewhat useful as a starting point (as in "I'm willing to pay 30% of guide

for mid grade SA Thors"), but the actual dollar amounts rarely resemble real word prices, except perhaps in the catalogs of some large volume dealers who don't have the time to assess the actual FMV of the thousands of books in their inventory.

 

Scrooge, I share your cynicism. Overstreet didn't bump up the value of Suspense #3 from a few hundred dollars in NM for years after it was common knowledge to any collector of GA books that it was worth far more than that, and even then it only slowly crept up over several more years to something remotely resembling it's real value.

[adamstrange]

Don't you know that the annual "Overstreet is out of whack discussion" is not scheduled for another 6 months when the 2007 guide comes out

How to Fix Overstreet

Market vs Overstreet