To Be A Gerber "9" Or Not To Be, That Is The Question!

[esquirecomics]

The following books are designated by Gerber in his photojournals as being "9"s, which translates to "very rare" or from 6-10 copies. Not entirely clear why some books he notes as possibly not existing yet then proceeds to assign them a "9" (and even some "8"s) rather than "10".

 

In any event, how have these designations stood the test of time, which at the moment is 17 years? Actually the real question is how have these designations stood the test of the Internet!!

 

Can any of these books from Volume 1 be eliminated outright as a Gerber "9" (if I missed any, please add it):

 

(1) A-1 Comics #2

(2) All American #4

(3) All Negro Comics

(4) Atomic Thunderbolt #2 (noted "may not exist", does it?)

(5) Big Book of Fun Comics

(6) Camera Comics nn (noted "may not exist", does it?)

(7) Captain Aero Comics #9

(8) Catman Comics #13

(9) Classics Illustrated Gians #1

(10) Classics Illustrated #3 (giveaway)

(11) Classics Illustrated #4 (giveaway)

(12) Detective #2

(13) Detective #3

(14) Famous Funnies #1

(15) Famous Funnies #2

(16) Famous Funnies #9 (no image in Gerber, anyone have it?)

(17) Feature Books nn

(18) Flash Comics (ashcan)

(19) Flying Models #1

(20) Four Most #41 (noted "may not exist", does it?)

(21) Green Giant Comics #1

(22) Illustrated Stories of the Opera nn (Carman, no image in Gerber, anyone have it?)

(23) Jumbo Comics #6

(24) Jumbo Comics #31

 

Of course if anyone has any of the books above, do share!

[action1kid]

The following books are designated by Gerber in his photojournals as being "9"s, which translates to "very rare" or from 6-10 copies. Not entirely clear why some books he notes as possibly not existing yet then proceeds to assign them a "9" (and even some "8"s) rather than "10".

 

In any event, how have these designations stood the test of time, which at the moment is 17 years? Actually the real question is how have these designations stood the test of the Internet!!

 

Can any of these books from Volume 1 be eliminated outright as a Gerber "9" (if I missed any, please add it):

 

(1) A-1 Comics #2

(2) All American #4

(3) All Negro Comics

(4) Atomic Thunderbolt #2 (noted "may not exist", does it?)

(5) Big Book of Fun Comics

(6) Camera Comics nn (noted "may not exist", does it?)

(7) Captain Aero Comics #9

(8) Catman Comics #13

(9) Classics Illustrated Gians #1

(10) Classics Illustrated #3 (giveaway)

(11) Classics Illustrated #4 (giveaway)

(12) Detective #2

(13) Detective #3

(14) Famous Funnies #1

(15) Famous Funnies #2

(16) Famous Funnies #9 (no image in Gerber, anyone have it?)

(17) Feature Books nn

(18) Flash Comics (ashcan)

(19) Flying Models #1

(20) Four Most #41 (noted "may not exist", does it?)

(21) Green Giant Comics #1

(22) Illustrated Stories of the Opera nn (Carman, no image in Gerber, anyone have it?)

(23) Jumbo Comics #6

(24) Jumbo Comics #31

 

Of course if anyone has any of the books above, do share!

 

I was going to say you missed Motion Picture Funnies Weekly #1 but that is in volume 2. I thought I had ya!

[FFB]

There are seven Detective Comics #2's in the census and four Detective Comics #3's. I have to think that there are at least twice as many unslabbed copies still out there.

[action1kid]

Yeah I think your right Scott. There actually 8s......

[action1kid]

and 2 and 3 are the toughest Detectives regarless.

[Crowzilla]

That was my first thought on seeing the list - but you guys tackled it quick.

Back in 93-94, I flipped two copies of Detective #2 to Oklahoma Dave - and he had a third copy at the same time. I found it hard to believe then that I had just had maybe a 1/3 of the known copies pass through my hands within a few months and I guess the census verifies this.

I've always thought #4 was pretty darn hard myself.

[Metarog]

Atomic Thunderbolt #2 does not exist. I have been looking for many years and have never even heard a rumor one existing.

[Point Five]

(8) Catman Comics #13

 

Great thread!

 

I have the Catman zine from Mike Bromberg, and his finding is that #13 is definitely not a Gerber 9...he describes it as "probably more like a high (Gerber) 7". Probably the crazy prices this book has sometimes commanded in recent years ($1000+ even in VG!) was enough to bring a few more copies to market.

 

.

[whomerjay]

(8) Catman Comics #13

 

Great thread!

 

I have the Catman zine from Mike Bromberg, and his finding is that #13 is definitely not a Gerber 9...he describes it as "probably more like a high (Gerber) 7". Probably the crazy prices this book has sometimes commanded in recent years ($1000+ even in VG!) was enough to bring a few more copies to market.

 

.

 

Yes, Mike who is THE Catman expert has said that #13 isn't as scarce as believed, in fact I think he feels other Catman issues are tougher. I would go after a #13 if I saw one for a price that didn't reflect such an assumed scarcity.

[ArAich]

(21) Green Giant Comics #1

 

I know a guy locally that has one of these in 9.0-9.2 condition...really a gorgeous book that I personally have held and considered purchasing were it not for the large price tag...

[metropoliscomics]

(8) Catman Comics #13

 

Great thread!

 

I have the Catman zine from Mike Bromberg, and his finding is that #13 is definitely not a Gerber 9...he describes it as "probably more like a high (Gerber) 7". Probably the crazy prices this book has sometimes commanded in recent years ($1000+ even in VG!) was enough to bring a few more copies to market.

 

.

 

Yes, Mike who is THE Catman expert has said that #13 isn't as scarce as believed, in fact I think he feels other Catman issues are tougher. I would go after a #13 if I saw one for a price that didn't reflect such an assumed scarcity.

 

#13 is a very rare book. Were there copies that came out of the woodwork? If so, I have not seen them.

 

Stephen

[CentaurMan]

Can any of these books from Volume 1 be eliminated outright as a Gerber "9" (if I missed any, please add it):

 

(1) A-1 Comics #2

(2) All American #4

(3) All Negro Comics

(4) Atomic Thunderbolt #2 (noted "may not exist", does it?)

(5) Big Book of Fun Comics

(6) Camera Comics nn (noted "may not exist", does it?)

(7) Captain Aero Comics #9

(8) Catman Comics #13

(9) Classics Illustrated Gians #1

(10) Classics Illustrated #3 (giveaway)

(11) Classics Illustrated #4 (giveaway)

(12) Detective #2

(13) Detective #3

(14) Famous Funnies #1

(15) Famous Funnies #2

(16) Famous Funnies #9 (no image in Gerber, anyone have it?)

(17) Feature Books nn

(18) Flash Comics (ashcan)

(19) Flying Models #1

(20) Four Most #41 (noted "may not exist", does it?)

(21) Green Giant Comics #1

(22) Illustrated Stories of the Opera nn (Carman, no image in Gerber, anyone have it?)

(23) Jumbo Comics #6

(24) Jumbo Comics #31

 

So you bought a book on eBay that was supposed to be scarce according to Gerber, then were told it's plentiful because sometime in the interim 17 years there was a warehouse find, and now want to check to make sure the other Gerber numbers are accurate to better refine your want list?

 

It's fun to discuss scarcity, but I'm telling you, Gerber ratings are a terribly antiquated way to go about it. They were cutting edge when the books came out, but we have exponentially more info at our fingertips now than Ernie Gerber ever did. Using his ratings as the primary filter for scarcity seems like forcing high school students to use typewriters instead of computers; just because it used to be the best idea doesn't mean it still is.

 

Plus, it doesn't isolate the real challenge: everyone knows how to look up Gerber 8's, 9's, and 10's and assumes they're scarce, but very few people know which Gerber 5's, 6's, and 7's are impossible to find. And even though there's potentially significant competitive advantage in knowing how to do so, I'll tell you how.

 

The CentaurMan Method for Determining True Scarcity

Why do people slab books? Why do people consign books? Money. As everyone knows, money affects supply. The more expensive the book, but more likely it will be slabbed and/or consigned for sale. Super cheap books don't get sent to CGC and don't get consigned on Heritage. The more expensive the book, the more likely that copies will emerge into the marketplace (captured in the census and in Heritage's archives). Metro's inventory can also be used as a proxy, but without archives it's not nearly as helpful.

 

So, take a few long-running titles that aren't ridiculously scarce (say, Batman, Captain America, and Four Color) and set up a spreadsheet with three columns: the issue, the market price in Good condition (note that this is not Guide price), and the number of copies in the census + unslabbed copies sold on Heritage + unslabbed copies currently on Metro. Will that take a little while? Sure, but it's hardly impossible and it's actually kind of fun.

 

Once you've set up the spreadsheet, run a simple regression analysis attempting to predict how many copies have been slabbed and/or listed for sale vs. the price. You'll find that market price is highly correlated with how many copies appear to be out there. (For instance, compare the number of slabbed All-American #61's vs. #60; almost twice as many).

 

Now you've got a formula you can use to predict how many slabbed/listed copies there should be given the price. If a book sells for $450 in Good, there should be x copies. If a book sells for $1200, there should by y copies. Etc., etc., etc. Applying that formula across a population of books will show you the outliers, the books that are clearly more common than price itself would indicate and the books that are much rarer than price would indicate.

 

And you'll also notice that a number of Gerber 6's are super scarce, while a number of Gerber 8's and 9's aren't that tough (especially since the simple designation of the Gerber rating can lead to novice collectors pursuing the book which is clearly reflected in the census, despite market prices that would indicate otherwise).

 

Since we're talking Golden Age, the census doesn't change much, so maybe once a year you should update the spreadsheet for additional supply and price changes to fine-tune your formula. Not that tricky, and again, kind of fun. What you end up with is a very robust model that clearly highlights books to sell and books to buy if you're a scarcity nut.

 

Sorry for the long post. Very unusual for me. But this whole Gerber fixation is so freaking newbie that it drives me nuts. I guess I should encourage it because it leads to very exploitable behavior patterns, but I just can't. All new collectors discover Gerber, love Gerber, then get convinced that Gerber holds the key. I did too. Then their education really begins. I'm just trying to accelerate the process.

[Fan4Fan]

I am surprised that the voice of reason is coming from Chicago...

 

Excellent post... and it does sound like fun!

 

Is this only applicable to GA, or have you applied it to other ages?

[CentaurMan]

I've just used it in Golden Age, because in theory there are few Silver Age books that are truly scarce. When you get into the Silver Age, collectors "force" scarcity onto the books by applying grade thresholds, artificially limiting the supply available by declaring many copies of the same book as "uncollectible". My spreadsheet is designed to see how tough it is to find ANY copy, not simply high grade.

 

That said, you could in theory create the same effect by limiting the spreadsheet population to a certain grade hurdle. There certainly is more pricing data, which is helpful. But intuitively I'm not sure how effective it would be, and you'd have to update it more often as the velocity of census additions is quite a bit higher. Not my bag.

[whomerjay]

But this whole Gerber fixation is so freaking newbie that it drives me nuts.

 

Until you publish or make available your spreadsheet, there are few convenient sources out there to go on other than Gerber and the CGC Census. So naturally Gerber carries some weight. But I doubt few, other than true novices to GA collecting, don't recognize its dated nature, and its fallibility.

[JJBEE2001]

The only one I know about is Jumbo # 31 which I believe is definately a "9". Try finding one!

[CentaurMan]

But this whole Gerber fixation is so freaking newbie that it drives me nuts.

 

Until you publish or make available your spreadsheet, there are few convenient sources out there to go on other than Gerber and the CGC Census. So naturally Gerber carries some weight. But I doubt few, other than true novices to GA collecting, don't recognize its dated nature, and its fallibility.

 

Fair enough. I've given step-by-step instructions on how to develop an effective scarcity formula, but you're right, for simplicity Gerber is the obvious choice. I think most of us view Gerber the way we view Overstreet: terribly outdated but still interesting. Not many of us would use the Guide as our method for figuring out exactly what to pay for a book, and not many of us would use Gerber as our method for isolating which comics are scarce and which aren't. It's still interesting, obviously.

 

But to make a want list out of nothing but Gerber scarcity ratings just seems harmfully erratic. Although the comic market isn't as liquid as the stock market, it's still quite efficient, and comic prices have adjusted to Gerber ratings years ago. It seems like every other eBay auction lists the Gerber rating, and at this point the info seems more likely to encourage bad decision-making than good. We have so many more tools now that are much more accurate (if a bit less simple); it's like having a computer and an abacus and choosing to use the abacus because it takes too long to boot up the computer. Except that analogy isn't perfect because the abacus will actually give you correct data.

[whomerjay]

You are right on, but it seems you fail to appreciate how truly un-quantitative the world is. My wife is an MD who can't balance her checkbook. Me, I understand that attempting to balance one's checkbook nets one $0.05 per hour invested, thus I never do it. Worlds are not exactly colliding here.

[CentaurMan]

Me, I understand that attempting to balance one's checkbook nets one $0.05 per hour invested, thus I never do it.

 

unless someone is always thisclose to bouncing checks, in which case the value of the time spent is enormous.

 

I didn't want to irritate anyone with my Gerber post, which I know probably came off as arrogant and/or condescending. I'm glad we're basically in agreement, and I'll fade back a bit on this. My whole real-life job is valuing things (in my case, companies), and as such I like to apply similar principles to whatever it is I'm buying/selling, whether it's comics, wine, or stocks. It's kind of an OCD (except that I'm not neat or tidy, to my wife's chagrin).

[Scrooge]

[<snip> it's like having a computer and an abacus and choosing to use the abacus because it takes too long to boot up the computer. Except that analogy isn't perfect because the abacus will actually give you correct data.

 

Why, you, behavioralist!? Don't you know markets are efficient and all investors are rational? At least, that's the Chicago opinion.

 

Let me provide another comic book analogy for your arsenal. We "know" that the true relationship between grade and price is non-linear, i.e., prices rise up faster than grade proportionately in an exponential manner one could say. Yet, comic collector are wont to average F and VF prices to find the "F/VF" price: we've been having such a discussion in the General forum. Upshot: the F/VF they arrive at is higher than the true value. Why? Because they used a simple method to answer a complex problem in exactly the same fashion that collectors make errors about scarcity: they rely on a simple measure: Gerber Scarcity to answer a complex problem when they should use a more complete / complex method: the CMSM (CentaurMan Scarcity Model).