The Crash???

[delekkerste]

You've got some outrageous purchases on your resume, right?

 

Very few, actually. I can count them on one hand...no, make that on two fingers.

The DD #171 9.4 for $202.50 and the ASM #123 9.6 Western PA copy for $375.00.

I wouldn't call my ASM 122 9.6 or GS 1 9.6 purchases, for example, "outrageous"

because I could easily get my money back on the former and make a huge profit

on the latter.

 

I just don't rant about it every chance I get, so it might have slipped under your

radar, being that this is the only topic you post about.

 

No doubt that I may be a little (!) overzealous on the topic However, it is

definitely not the only thing I post about!! I post all the time on creators, covers,

characters, etc. Just for the record.

 

Gene

[Guest]

I don't expect these

books to appreciate in value, but nor do I want to postpone purchase until later - these

books guide for low values and if the market continues to slide, no one will bother to slab

& sell these books in the future. So really, I think now is the only buying opportunity

for these circa 1983 type books as no one will bother to slab these again going forward.

Another interesting topic in itself. Less slabbing may mean propping of prices. We'll have to see. I like these 9.6s for $20-$35 as well... they're a quality book with, in most cases, little more cost than the raw price plus slab/S+H cost included. Buying raw on eBay is a gamble, and forget about 9.6 copies in dealer bins, for the most part.

[delekkerste]

And the type of books that you've been buying (bronze/modern, Byrne X-men, Miller DD's,

Spideys 100-200, McFarlane Spideys, Ultimates, Origin, etc.,

 

Just for the record, I have not paid up for Byrne X-Men as I avoided the 9.6s & 9.8s until

recently, slabbed most of the Miller DDs raw and have made a paper profit of hundreds of

percent, have made out like a bandit on ASM (the paper gains on my ASM #129 9.6 wp

purchase easily wipe out the small losses I have taken on a few common 9.2s and 9.4s),

have only bought 2 McFarlane ASMs as I hate them (but, I was defrauded on the

#300 and just got a refund from PayPal today! Yippee!!), have only bought 2 Ultimate

books (USM 1 9.6 red for $99 and UXM 1 9.6 for $30) and only 1 copy of Origin (#2 for

cheap!)

 

The problem is that nobody has a complete picture of what I've bought, what price I paid,

what I subsequently sold, etc. Most people just look at my bidding history and see

I'm bidding on a bunch of stuff (most of which is just to watch) and assume that I'm paying

top $$$ since I seem to be one of the very few who has owned up to the bad purchases

I have made in the past!

 

Gene

 

[delekkerste]

I like these 9.6s for $20-$35 as well... they're a quality book with, in most cases,

little more cost than the raw price plus slab/S+H cost included.

 

Doc, forget about even the 9.6s...this market is so depressed that you can get

9.8 white paged copies of early 1980s stuff for super-cheap!!! I just got an X-Men/

Micronauts #1 (has sentimental value for me) 9.8 wp for $19.00, a Secret Wars

#1 9.8 wp for $31 (Secret Wars 3 is coming out next year!! Better get your copies

now!!), a Thor #340 CGC 9.8 wp for $23.50...quality stuff for dirt cheap.

 

That's the silver lining of this cras--, uh, I mean, "market decline" we're having.

 

Gene

[Crowzilla]

My belief is that anyone buying ASM 1-50 in NM will not be dissappointed 10 years down the road.

 

Although I used to believe that this is true, I'm not certain that the percentages can agree with this anymore. I like to hold Spider-man as a model similar to Golden-Age Batman (Spider-man's sell for more than similarly number and earlier FF's, as Batman's do to Superman's).

 

For example a Batman #35 in 9.4 just sold in this past Heriage auction for $3400 (a little less than 3x guide), A Spider-man #35 in the same shape would probably bring about 1/2 that value (around 7x guide), even though there are 8 copies graded 9.4 or better (and 39 graded 9.0 or better) compared to only 16 total graded copies period for the Batman and 4 graded 9.0 or better.

Something has to give in 10 years. If the Spiderman goes up a modest 10% a year and still sells for 7x guide we're looking at a $5000 copy of Spider-man #35 and I just can't see that happening. If the multiple of guide drops to around that of the Batman, then the book will be selling for almost what it does now.

 

Comiclink has a Spider-man #5 advertised for $35,000. Even if the selling price is a slight discount to this, how much more potential could there possibly be in this book - even 10 years down the road? 35K is more than any single non #1 issue of Batman has ever sold for, and pretty close to what you could have bought the 7.5 copy of #1 at the Heritage auction for (3rd best grade given). A comparison to Spider-man #1 isn't even fair - we are closing in on two dozen Spidey #1's graded in 9.0 or better, while there hasn't been a single copy of Batman #1 graded 9.0 or better, and there might not ever be.

 

While no doubt Spider-man prices will continue to lead Silver-age Marvel sales, I'm just not sure that a blanket statement like you can't go wrong with Spidey 1-50 is true anymore.

 

[Crowzilla]

Although it certainly hasn't been 10 years, here's a perfect example of a falling price on a Silver Age Key.

At the March Heritage Auction, the Curator copy of Amazing Fantasy #15 sold for $44,275. It just sold again this past weekend for $35,650. If the owner was charged the same 15% commission as the buyers are, that means he lost about $18,000 (40%) on THE Key book from the Silver Age, in high grade, and from a pedigree collection to boot.

 

[murph0]

Yes there will obviously be a price ceiling on certain books that are in demand and htf but not that htf. The ASM series would fall into that category. I personally don't think the sky is the limit for these books as we have realized that there are a ton of them out there (just like most other books). So all this material is bought up by the huge demand from old fans/collectors and new ones. If the next movie sucks, or the storyline goes to a la Clone saga..these books will top out. I also don't foresee dropping 35k on an early ASM to be a good investment either..at that price you probably won't see a whole lot of fluctuation as it isn't TRULY a key such as an ASM 1 or AF 15.

 

Brian

[fantastic_four]

You're basically right about Spidey not increasing at the same rate Batman or Superman did. A much higher percentage of the pre-1945 comics were destroyed as a result of the World War 2 era paper recycling drives. So the higher supply of Spideys will keep it at a significantly lower value when compared to the early DC key titles. Amazing Fantasy 15 could end up being an exception, however, since it had a lower print run and was under everybody's radar when it came out.

 

I don't see anybody taking a bath on early Spideys during any of our lifetimes, as long as you don't pay insanely stupid prices for them. $35K for a Spidey 5 sounds pretty dumb to me too . He was popular right from the beginning in 1960, and he's probably even more popular today than he ever has been. Any of the superheroes that are common household names amongst non-comic-collectors around the world--Superman, Batman, and now Spider-Man--will retain a significant portion of their value for a long, long time to come. Likely throughout all of our lifetimes, our children's lifetimes, and possibly our grandchildren's lifetimes. Probably even for a long time after paper comics are no longer printed.

[Crowzilla]

Any of the superheroes that are common household names amongst non-comic-collectors around the world--Superman, Batman, and now Spider-Man--will retain a significant portion of their value for a long, long time to come. Likely throughout all of our lifetimes, our children's lifetimes, and possibly our grandchildren's lifetimes

 

I agree with this view also, but it's probably what our parents were thinking in the 50s while watching the Flash Gordon TV show too. "My dad liked this growing up, so do I, and I'll teach my kid all about it" - meanwhile when jr. finally arrives he only cares about Wolverine.

 

I woudn't make a bet about any of our pop culture lasting through to our grandkid's times (except maybe Coca-Cola).

 

[murph0]

Aren't a lot of toys from that era pretty valuable? Lots of stuff was TV themed.. I wonder who buys that stuff now that almost everyone alive then is past their 60-70's.

 

Brian

[Guest]

Good points, zilla.

 

This would be the worst time to buy, if looking at current vs. future values. I'd still think ASM in 10 years will be o.k., but the next 5 years are probably going to be flat. Spidey values have outpaced the expected growth of value, like Batman did in the 1-2 year period around the first Batman movie.

[comicinvestor-migration]

I agree with this view also, but it's probably what our parents were thinking in the 50s while watching the Flash Gordon TV show too. "My dad liked this growing up, so do I, and I'll teach my kid all about it" - meanwhile when jr. finally arrives he only cares about Wolverine.

 

This statement sums up the fallacy that many comic collectors are under; that what they like is naturally going to be embraced by the next generation.

 

This is generaly not true, and especially for collectible areas where adults are prevalent.

[delekkerste]

I woudn't make a bet about any of our pop culture lasting through to our

grandkid's times (except maybe Coca-Cola)

 

GREAT points, 'Zilla. Too many posters here wear their fanboy caps when

they make predictions about future market conditions. Even Spidey - he's

HUGELY popular now given the success of Ultimate Spidey, JMS's ASM

and, of course, the blockbuster movie. Can he maintain this level of popularity

even 5-10 years from now, let alone 25-50 years from now? After Bendis &

JMS have moved on, and Sony/Paramount pull the plug on the film franchise

after the 4th sequel (starring that creepy kid from The Sixth Sense) bombs?

 

Great example on the AF #15 sale. It just proves the point that I keep making

that you CAN pay too much for an item, no matter how coveted it is. It doesn't

matter if it's an AF 15 CGC 9.0, Van Gogh's "Sunflowers" or all those supposedly

"blue chip" stocks at the levels of a couple of years ago. If you overpay, Mr.

Market will kick the @#$& out of you in the end.

 

Gene

[blowout]

"If you overpay, Mr. Market will kick the @#$& out of you in the end."

 

..........Gene.......thats a classic............

[delekkerste]

"Something has to give in 10 years. If the Spiderman goes up a modest 10%

a year and still sells for 7x guide we're looking at a $5000 copy of Spider-man

#35 and I just can't see that happening."

 

Another excellent point. Very few people here are doing their math homework.

They say, yeah, CGC prices are high, but that just means they'll go up 10% a year

instead of 25%. But, as you prove in your example, prices escalate rapidly with

the effect of compound interest. Which means we're all going to be insanely

rich because our CGC books are going keep growing like Topsy or prices are

going to stagnate for years or sharply correct to levels where reasonable annual

appreciation doesn't result in ridiculously high values.

 

While I would love for my comic book collection to fund my retirement, I'm not

naive enough to believe that this scenario will pan out.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

I don't see anybody taking a bath on early Spideys during any of our lifetimes,

as long as you don't pay insanely stupid prices for them.

 

I hope this doesn't mean you think we all have very short life expectancies!

 

Gene

[Guest]

Can he maintain this level of popularity

even 5-10 years from now, let alone 25-50 years from now? After Bendis &

JMS have moved on, and Sony/Paramount pull the plug on the film franchise

after the 4th sequel (starring that creepy kid from The Sixth Sense) bombs?

THIS is the big question. When will popularity wane for these characters and the artform of comic books? And at what rate? This is the key to future demand for the books.

 

As far as the movies go, I'm with you. I foresee dwindling quality with the Spidey franchise, probably up until a soft 4th movie.... The X-Men are good for about 3. Batman/Superman... who's to say? Hopefully some good movies are forthcoming.

[comicwiz]

I have noticed high grade prices coming down, sure... But, they are coming down to more realistic numbers, at or near guide and from what i remember when I collected years ago, that was the norm. maybe it isn't a crash at all, maybe everyone is just getting smart about where they want to put their money. Was it really smart to pay 12x guide for a common CGC late seventies/early eighties book to begin with, when you could pick the same issue up for peanuts raw.

 

I think its a little of both; prices adjusting, and selective collecting. I still put my money on books that are obscure and extremely difficult to locate -- not to be confused with popular books in high demand, these are generally the kind of comics that don't pop-up all that often -- and when they do, its time to mortgage the house to pay for that book

[drbanner]

When I first starting posting that the CGC market was an illusion driven by specualtor dollars, I was hammered by the CGC faithful and virtually put on a rack and had the screws turned on me.

 

Now when everything is turing out exactly how I predicted, I'm seeing all this bizarre rationalization of the quite-obvious crash.