How My Lack of Discipline and Faith Cost Me

[dad-migration]

It was late in the 1960s when I was browsing in a comic book store in Chicago. In those days, there were perhaps two such stores in the entire country.

 

The store had a good selection of Amazing Spider-man 1-30, and also Fantastic Four's, all in VF/NM. But the prices! They wanted from $10. to $30. each for these books. I was about 14 years old, and just couldn't come up with the money.

 

They also had a copy of both FF #1 and ASM #1 for $100. each. Talk about sticker shock!

 

Before the early 1970s, no one knew that old comic books were worth money, or would be worth money some day. You might as well have tried to convince people that old newspapers would be valuable someday. But I always knew that my books would become very valuable. For years, my beliefs were ridiculed.

 

Why didn't I buy some of those ASMs and FFs? Was it really because I didn't have the cash? No, it really was because I didn't have faith in myself or the discipline to spend what seemed at the time to be an outrageous amount of money.

 

Don't make the same mistake I did.

 

[Mister_Fantastic-migration]

"But I always knew that my books would become very valuable. For years, my beliefs were ridiculed."

 

Chuck?

 

[ArAich]

"But I always knew that my books would become very valuable. For years, my beliefs were ridiculed."

 

Chuck?

 

Stan....

[ninanina]

Don't make the same mistake I did.

 

Well, if you think comics are expensive now....

 

 

"'ya ain't seen nothin' yet."

[ninanina]

Ya' know, this happens to all of us all the time. I recently mentioned - what's up with Journey Into Mystery 90, a comic that is hardly up for auction anymore on e-bay. Been trying to get something in at least a Fine for about 3 years. A CGC 4.5 comes up with a Buy It Now of around $50.00 and I hesitate. By the time I decide to use the BIN price, it's already been bidded on and the option is gone.

 

Now, the biddings up to somewhere around $120.00.

 

Sheesh!

 

I feel your pain.

[dam60]

Why didn't I buy some of those ASMs and FFs? Was it really because I didn't have the cash? No, it really was because I didn't have faith in myself or the discipline to spend what seemed at the time to be an outrageous amount of money.

 

Don't make the same mistake I did.

 

I would like to call attention to the fact that collecting comics can be fun. Hell, I have a great time! There's more to books than just the investment.

 

DAM

[delekkerste]

Why didn't I buy some of those ASMs and FFs? Was it really because I didn't have the cash? No, it really was because I didn't have faith in myself or the discipline to spend what seemed at the time to be an outrageous amount of money.

 

Don't make the same mistake I did.

 

The real mistake would be to use your 20/20 hindsight regret as a rationale to buy books at inflated prices today, hoping that past performance will be indicative of future results.

 

In the late 1960s, you're right - the comic collecting hobby was still in its fetal stage. With perfect foresight, you would have seen the rapid maturation of the hobby in the 1970s and 1980s, the establishment of dealers, conventions and the direct issue market, growing awareness of comic preservation, the introduction of the online market and then CGC...and, perhaps even more importantly, you would have foreseen the inflationary 1970s, the booming '80s, the growing wealth and nostalgia of the baby-boom generation in the '80s and '90s, and the greatest creation of wealth in human history during the latter half of the '90s. The correct move to make in the time period you are talking about would indeed have been to BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY. However, all of these factors are FULLY PRICED (and then some, I would argue) into the market at current levels. The market will NOT reward you for looking in the rear-view mirror.

 

No one has perfect foresight as to what the next 30 years will look like, but I'll take a shot at it - older collectors selling off their books, the high-end CGC bubble bursting, continued declining unit sales of new comics (culminating in the death of the 32-page pamphlet within 10 years), continued disinterest among today's youth for comics in favor of videogames and other pastimes, baby boomers retiring and becoming net sellers of books, the end of the "comic movie" fad by 2005 or 2006, continued sluggish economic times for the balance of the decade, etc. You will not see $100 books today becoming $100,000 books in 30 years' time (barring a complete inflationary collapse of the U.S. dollar). Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown and it's not going to happen.

 

Read the quote from Winston Churchill in my signature line...if you think that the next 30 years will look anything like the past 30, you are cruisin' for a financial bruisin'.

 

- Gene

[Aman619]

a very plausible prediction of future events.....It could all happen as you say. Ive come to similar conclusions. I sure hope youre/were wrong...

[FlyingDonut]

Why didn't I buy some of those ASMs and FFs? Was it really because I didn't have the cash? No, it really was because I didn't have faith in myself or the discipline to spend what seemed at the time to be an outrageous amount of money.

 

Don't make the same mistake I did.

 

The real mistake would be to use your 20/20 hindsight regret as a rationale to buy books at inflated prices today, hoping that past performance will be indicative of future results.

 

In the late 1960s, you're right - the comic collecting hobby was still in its fetal stage. With perfect foresight, you would have seen the rapid maturation of the hobby in the 1970s and 1980s, the establishment of dealers, conventions and the direct issue market, growing awareness of comic preservation, the introduction of the online market and then CGC...and, perhaps even more importantly, you would have foreseen the inflationary 1970s, the booming '80s, the growing wealth and nostalgia of the baby-boom generation in the '80s and '90s, and the greatest creation of wealth in human history during the latter half of the '90s. The correct move to make in the time period you are talking about would indeed have been to BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY. However, all of these factors are FULLY PRICED (and then some, I would argue) into the market at current levels. The market will NOT reward you for looking in the rear-view mirror.

 

No one has perfect foresight as to what the next 30 years will look like, but I'll take a shot at it - older collectors selling off their books, the high-end CGC bubble bursting, continued declining unit sales of new comics (culminating in the death of the 32-page pamphlet within 10 years), continued disinterest among today's youth for comics in favor of videogames and other pastimes, baby boomers retiring and becoming net sellers of books, the end of the "comic movie" fad by 2005 or 2006, continued sluggish economic times for the balance of the decade, etc. You will not see $100 books today becoming $100,000 books in 30 years' time (barring a complete inflationary collapse of the U.S. dollar). Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown and it's not going to happen.

 

Read the quote from Winston Churchill in my signature line...if you think that the next 30 years will look anything like the past 30, you are cruisin' for a financial bruisin'.

 

- Gene

 

Gene - I saw that picture of you with Greg Horn, and I'm wondering how you managed to keep your hair so nicely coiffed with the sky always falling on it.

[dam60]

Gene - I saw that picture of you with Greg Horn, and I'm wondering how you managed to keep your hair so nicely coiffed with the sky always falling on it.

 

FD - in all fairness, the number one reason why the ASM #1 and the FF #1 are still not $100 books (plus inflation) would be because people didn't collect / preserve / maintain them. And right now the comic book collecting base does seem to be shrinking. Believe me, I have enough books that I hope Gene isn't right, but the evidence doesn't seem to be supporting that conclusion . . .

 

DAM

[dad-migration]

Why didn't I buy some of those ASMs and FFs? Was it really because I didn't have the cash? No, it really was because I didn't have faith in myself or the discipline to spend what seemed at the time to be an outrageous amount of money.

 

Don't make the same mistake I did.

 

The real mistake would be to use your 20/20 hindsight regret as a rationale to buy books at inflated prices today, hoping that past performance will be indicative of future results.

 

In the late 1960s, you're right - the comic collecting hobby was still in its fetal stage. With perfect foresight, you would have seen the rapid maturation of the hobby in the 1970s and 1980s, the establishment of dealers, conventions and the direct issue market, growing awareness of comic preservation, the introduction of the online market and then CGC...and, perhaps even more importantly, you would have foreseen the inflationary 1970s, the booming '80s, the growing wealth and nostalgia of the baby-boom generation in the '80s and '90s, and the greatest creation of wealth in human history during the latter half of the '90s. The correct move to make in the time period you are talking about would indeed have been to BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY. However, all of these factors are FULLY PRICED (and then some, I would argue) into the market at current levels. The market will NOT reward you for looking in the rear-view mirror.

 

No one has perfect foresight as to what the next 30 years will look like, but I'll take a shot at it - older collectors selling off their books, the high-end CGC bubble bursting, continued declining unit sales of new comics (culminating in the death of the 32-page pamphlet within 10 years), continued disinterest among today's youth for comics in favor of videogames and other pastimes, baby boomers retiring and becoming net sellers of books, the end of the "comic movie" fad by 2005 or 2006, continued sluggish economic times for the balance of the decade, etc. You will not see $100 books today becoming $100,000 books in 30 years' time (barring a complete inflationary collapse of the U.S. dollar). Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown and it's not going to happen.

 

Read the quote from Winston Churchill in my signature line...if you think that the next 30 years will look anything like the past 30, you are cruisin' for a financial bruisin'.

 

- Gene

 

 

I much prefer this quote from Benjamin Franklin's autobiography:

 

"There are croakers in every country, always boding its ruin. Such a one then lived in Philadelphia; a person of note, an elderly man, with a wise look and a very grave manner of speaking; his name was Samuel Mickle. This gentleman, a stranger to me, stopt one day at my door, and asked me if I was the young man who had lately opened a new printing-house. Being answered in the affirmative, he said he was sorry for me, because it was an expensive undertaking, and the expense would be lost; for Philadelphia was a sinking place, the people already half-bankrupts, or near being so; all appearances to the contrary, such as new buildings and the rise of rents, being to his certain knowledge fallacious; for they were, in fact, among the things that would soon ruin us. And he gave me such a detail of misfortunes now existing, or that were soon to exist, that he left me half melancholy. Had I known him before I engaged in this business, probably I never should have done it. This man continued to live in this decaying place, and to declaim in the same strain, refusing for many years to buy a house there, because all was going to destruction; and at last I had the pleasure of seeing him give five times as much for one as he might have bought it for when he first began his croaking. "

 

[fantastic_four]

nice followup story

[delekkerste]

Gene - I saw that picture of you with Greg Horn, and I'm wondering how you managed to keep your hair so nicely coiffed with the sky always falling on it.

 

Dan, I know you're both a businessman and an intelligent guy, so instead of the easy quip, show me where I'm wrong. Tell me what's going to turn around the secular decline in comic books. Tell me what's going to make today's youth throw away their Playstations and XBoxes and start heading into the comic stores to not only start reading comics, but to become such big fans that they spend tens of thousands of dollars on comics instead of cars, houses and tuition payments. You can't get there except on a wing, prayer and a full vial of crack.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

I much prefer this quote from Benjamin Franklin's autobiography:

 

Thank you for proving my point. This "elderly gentleman" in the story grew up in a time of turmoil for America - when it was an English colony and then through a bloody revolution. He had never known America in a time of lasting wealth & prosperity and was simply extrapolating the recent past indefinitely into the future when, in fact, America's ascent to prosperity and ultimately global hegemony was just beginning (circa 1784 according to the cycle studies I have read).

 

Much as many on this Board are doing with the future course of comic book prices.

 

Gene

[FlyingDonut]

Gene - I saw that picture of you with Greg Horn, and I'm wondering how you managed to keep your hair so nicely coiffed with the sky always falling on it.

 

Dan, I know you're both a businessman and an intelligent guy, so instead of the easy quip, show me where I'm wrong. Tell me what's going to turn around the secular decline in comic books. Tell me what's going to make today's youth throw away their Playstations and XBoxes and start heading into the comic stores to not only start reading comics, but to become such big fans that they spend tens of thousands of dollars on comics instead of cars, houses and tuition payments. You can't get there except on a wing, prayer and a full vial of crack.

 

Gene

 

I thought my quip was pretty damn funny.

 

But here's the thing. I don't think it is nearly as bad as you think it is - there is, and will continue to be, a strong market for back issues sales, mostly fueled by continued renewal of the franchise through non-comic means (films, video games, books), that will lure purchasers back into the market. I also think that we are in a down cycle within the industry itself, much like the early- to mid-70s, when the industry was saved by the introduction of the direct market.

 

I don't see the comic book going away. If nothing else, the major players need to continue to publish the "pamphlet" for copyright and intellectual property reasons. I also see (and have seen, admittedly through purely anecdotal evidence) an increase in children and young adults buying comics.

 

The industry is going to muddle on through. I'd like to see somebody try something new and different, but, failing that, its just going to muddle along.

[jkrk]

I remember being in college in Manhattan in the early 70's. Being in school the one commodity I had was free time. One afternoon I took the train into Brooklyn to a comic store looking forback issues. I made a deal with the owner to purchase Avengers 1-20 for $50. I believe maybe the books were in fine condition. This was my second major purchase. In 1968 I purchased ASM 1-20 from a kid who was moving for $20. Anyway, I became friendly with the store owner and he showed me boxes of comics he had stored away. He would order 10 copies of every new issue, sell 1 or 2 and stored the balance for a back issue inventory. I remember seeing a stack of TOS 48 for instance. Years later, make that a couple decades later, I was thinking about how many other comic store owners did the same thing and thinking of what the comics would be worth today with the existance of CGC grading? When I imagined myself in his position my thoughts were as follows:

If I owned comics purchased at 10 or 12 cents I would have sold copies for 50 cents and a dollar. There is no way I would have any issues left when the price reached $10. The number 1's would have been gone at no higher than $100 and probably $50. The point is I wonder how many comic stores have any of their inventory left from the 60's? Obviously if many did the CGC high grades wouldn't be commanding the prices they are currently selling for. That's my thought of the day.

[Aman619]

The point is I wonder how many comic stores have any of their inventory left from the 60's? Obviously if many did the CGC high grades wouldn't be commanding the prices they are currently selling for. That's my thought of the day.

 

Number One, the facts of this story dont add up. Comics stores didnt exist in the 60s as you know them today. The store owners who sold comics back then didnt ORDER comics when TOS 48 came out. They were sent to newsstands and luncheonettes and stationery stores by the magazine distributors who, if I have my facts straight, CHOSE which comics were sent to each customer. And being owners of stores for whom comics were one rackful of inventory (not the proverbial comics store owner/collector your story paints) I dont think all that many store owners were "hoarding" comics in the early 60s. By the late 60s hoarding was commonplace, but you are talking about TOS #48, thats what, 1964?

 

And....most of the hoarding from this time has been absorbed by the hobby by now with no ill effects on supply and demand. They were sold s you say for "astronomical prices" compared to cover prices.... Just as dealers sold thousands of X-Men #94s as it got hotter for higher and higher (crazy) prices until they ran out.

 

 

[COI]

No one has perfect foresight as to what the next 30 years will look like, but I'll take a shot at it -

 

older collectors selling off their books,

 

This will happen, but you speak as if there will be no one there to buy these books. From where I'm standing, there are a lot of fairly young collectors out there buying S.A and especially B.A books. Don't forget that there were a lot of 80's kids buying comics, and many are now coming back into the hobby and going after the vintage stuff. I'm 24 years old, and my favorite era(to collect) is the Silver Age. On this board alone there are many young vintage high grade collectors in their 20's and 30's. I personally know of people my age who have an interest in collecting vintage books, and plan to get into collecting once they start making some money.

 

continued declining unit sales of new comics (culminating in the death of the 32-page pamphlet within 10 years),

 

I believe that the production of new comics will EVENTUALLY cease, but within 10 years? That's doubtful. Again, there may be a declining number of CHILDREN in the market, but there are still plenty of older readers out there to keep new books going . I have a dealer-friend who deals ONLY in new books and is doing very well. The majority of his customers are between the ages of 15-35 and each buy VERY heavily month to month(with very few buying multiples of single books). Try telling him that the new book business will be extinct within 10 years.......he'll laugh. And he's on the frontlines so he knows what he's talking about. In his place alone I see tons of teens and kids buying. It may not be what it was 20 years ago, but I think many in the hobby are being over-dramatic about the lack of young readers.

 

I definetly don't believe that comics will see the kind of growth they have enjoyed in the last 20-30 years,but I think your scenario is extreme. I don't believe comics will continue exponential growth in the future, but these doom and gloom scenarios also seem highly unlikely.

[supapimp]

mighty fine post!

[delekkerste]

Hey Andrew,

 

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I think, however, that much of your argument is tenuous at best:

 

"a lot of fairly young collectors out there", "a lot of 80's kids buying comics", "many young vintage high grade collectors in their 20's and 30's", etc.

 

I'm sure you believe this to be true based on your anecdotal experience, but in the aggregate, I am highly confident it is not. Remember, we are on the CGC Forums here - for the most part, only the hard-core believers and their friends need apply. It's easy to believe that because of guys like you & Murph & FF & Supa, etc. that the future of the hobby seems secure (just in terms of there being 20/30-something fans out there buying SA back issues).

 

 

I believe that the production of new comics will EVENTUALLY cease, but within 10 years? That's doubtful...Try telling him that the new book business will be extinct within 10 years.......he'll laugh. And he's on the frontlines so he knows what he's talking about.

 

I believe the editor-in-chief of the Comics Buyers Guide is on the record for pamphlets going away in half that time (to be replaced by TPBs and/or electronic delivery - I never said new comic production would cease entirely) - please tell her she doesn't know what she is talking about. I also think you underestimate how long ten years is - who would have foreseen in 1991, when Marvel was selling 7.5 million copies of X-Men #1, that the company would be disgraced and BANKRUPT in a mere FIVE short years?

 

These are superb examples of what I mean about warning against extrapolating the recent past indefinitely into the future. What if the movie boom fizzles out in 2-3 years and Marvel starts falling on hard times again, because they're obviously betting the ranch on the film franchise. You don't think they'll reevaluate their entire business and look to make some potentially drastic changes?

 

 

The majority of his customers are between the ages of 15-35 and each buy VERY heavily month to month(with very few buying multiples of single books). In his place alone I see tons of teens and kids buying. It may not be what it was 20 years ago, but I think many in the hobby are being over-dramatic about the lack of young readers.

 

Again, this is anecdotal evidence. I can tell you that I frequent several stores in the NYC area and the only kids you see are in the places that also sell videogames and toys. Hey Dave (DAM60, if you're reading this) - when was the last time you saw a kid or teen in Time Machine or Midtown Comics? If you're like me, the answer would be never.

 

 

I definetly don't believe that comics will see the kind of growth they have enjoyed in the last 20-30 years

 

This could be the understatement of the century!

 

Gene