Help figure this out? Grade of Fine down from 50% of mint to 33% ?

[Shield]

I think he has "brick" as a saved search

 

 

I have "and" as a saved search...

[NoImSpartacus]

Nolm, out of curiousity, where are you located?

 

Im an oddball Gathgantu. I grew up in New York and reside there maybe 7 months of the year, but also reside in Florida for about 3 months out of the year and in Santa Monica CA about 2 months of the year. I am a personal trainer so it allows me to go stay for a bit in a state but also to move too the other states for months at a time. I do the mail order thing too but have had website down for about 2 years. Just starting to get the site up again in about 2 weeks.

 

Anyway, more importantly, Thanks for all the great responses. Gave 5 stars to all. I try to put up one thinking post a day regardless of wether I know the answers to my questions or not. Simply because I figure, if I am pondering on it, someone else is too. Plus, it give us all something to chat about.

 

Good collecting, Sincerely, Jeff

 

 

[sfilosa]

Because I have a lot of SA and GA books in the FN/VF range, I'm hopeful that over time, a lot of these books will appreciate more rapidly, as collectors either find themselves priced out of the high grade space, and/or as many GA and SA books in high grade become harder to obtain and collectors are "reduced" to purchasing books in mid-grade to complete runs and fill out collections.

 

 

I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope that books in the VG to VF- range increase in value much if at all. They haven't in the past 10 years.

 

Obviously, if it is an expensive book or a key, that is different, but remember the two sides of the economic equation are supply and demand. There is a huge supply of these books in these grades.

 

And if you are valuing your comic collection of FN/VF books using Overstreet Guide, cut your total value in Half. And that's assuming you sold every book as a single. If you sell to a dealer or in runs, you will bet lucky to get 25% of guide.

 

 

 

 

[garthgantu]

I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope that books in the VG to VF- range increase in value much if at all. They haven't in the past 10 years.

 

Really? I can't say I've looked at that date range, but even in the past 3 years, the VG to VF- stuff I've got (which runs the gamut from BA to GA, Archies to heros) has appreciated roughly 8-10% per year...I'm guessing that my Batman # 20 in FN- has gone up $150-200 in the past 10 years, not bad considering I paid $150 for it.

 

And if you are valuing your comic collection of FN/VF books using Overstreet Guide, cut your total value in Half. And that's assuming you sold every book as a single. If you sell to a dealer or in runs, you will bet lucky to get 25% of guide.

 

Okay, now you're just trying to depress me... Seriously, I know the OS guide is pretty far off for most non-keys under VF. But I think the one thing that may not be factored into the equation here is that in most cases, I paid less than 40% of guide in the first place for the FN/VF stuff.

 

It would be interesting to do a comparison of $500 spent three years ago on VF- SA Marvel and DC (first-tier titles like Batman and ASM), at eBay prices (i.e., 30-40% of guide) vs. spending $500 on NM 9.2 to 9.4 books of the same ilk, purchased on eBay (i.e., at 100-450% of guide). How much greater profit would you realize if you sold each set of books right now on eBay...?

 

Maybe this is fodder for another thread...?

[pavespawn]

Help me figure this one out? If my thinking is wrong or if there is some misinformation please advise.

 

I have been going over much information in comparing past overstreets to current as well as CBGs.

 

Here is how it appears to me:

For years, in Overstreet, Fine was considered -50% of NM. Now according to CBG the books in fine condition are -68%. The majority of comic stores back issues are of fine grade. In our stores, we saw the same. A lot of fine grade. The vast majority of inventories for comic stores and show dealers are Fine. Have the books that are the "heart" of the market lost 18% of their value !?!?!?!? Having a loss of 18% is not good for anyones equity. Just think if an inventory was $100,000 of fine books it would now be worth only $82,000 - a loss of $18,000.. This can't be good news for stores/dealers.

 

To look at the good side. Perhaps the lower fine condition books go, the better to purchase them.

 

My question to put things to the test? Has any of you seen a dumping of Fine or lower grade silver books recently. If so, this may present an window of opportunity or bonanza for collectors to pick up these lower conditioned books at lower cost.

 

If I am completely off the mark here, let me know. I am just running the statistics and am presenting them the way they appear to me.

 

As usual, 5 stars to all those who reply wether you reply positive or negative. Simply because you stated your opinion honorably.

 

I see your point as well. It would make sense to me that if the book is at the half way mark in the scale, shouldn't it be half the value? The current grading scale goes down hill fast and (IMO) does not reflect a fair price for the book?

 

Gary

[Aman619]

I agree that VGs and Fs are not increasing in value, either in the Guide or on the street. ...and CGC graded Fs just arent what the CGC collector is looking for, so these sell for even LESS graded than raw. Just so little demand, unless its a key of course. But I dont agree that the low prices CGC graded Fs sell for should be an indicator that Fs are dropping in value because a Fine collector doesnt want the slab. These are prices than are addditionally (artificially) DE-flated as a result.

[Warlord]

 

I see your point as well. It would make sense to me that if the book is at the half way mark in the scale, shouldn't it be half the value? The current grading scale goes down hill fast and (IMO) does not reflect a fair price for the book?

 

Gary

 

That sounds great until you pause to consider availability. Say you have 10 copies of a particular Silver Age issue that represent the condition of all available copies of that comic. What would you say the conditions of those 10 copies would be? Maybe 4 in VG or less, 3 in F, 2 in VF and 1 in NM?

 

That arbirtrary approximation puts 70% of the available supply in Fine or less. Now if 70% of the people who want that issue want it in Fine or less then the lower end supply will be balanced pretty well. But that leaves you with the other 30% of the collectors -- what copy would the condition conscious collector want? The NM of course. So you've got the supply forming a bell curve on the conditions available, but groupings of collectors at the high end paying a lot, and those at the low end finding lots of supply which means they can get some great values. That competition for the copy in the rarest and most desirable condition will cause the price to escalate quite a bit more than the linear pricing you suggested.

 

And I think CGC has exacerbated the high-end pricing due to eliminating a lot of the unpredictability. In other words, they've weeded out the NM "pretenders", the overgraded VFs. Now all the NM collectors focus in on the true NM issues, and don't buy a VF or VF+ by accident.

[sfilosa]

 

I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope that books in the VG to VF- range increase in value much if at all. They haven't in the past 10 years.

 

 

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Really? I can't say I've looked at that date range, but even in the past 3 years, the VG to VF- stuff I've got (which runs the gamut from BA to GA, Archies to heros) has appreciated roughly 8-10% per year...I'm guessing that my Batman # 20 in FN- has gone up $150-200 in the past 10 years, not bad considering I paid $150 for it.

 

 

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And if you are valuing your comic collection of FN/VF books using Overstreet Guide, cut your total value in Half. And that's assuming you sold every book as a single. If you sell to a dealer or in runs, you will bet lucky to get 25% of guide.

 

 

 

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Okay, now you're just trying to depress me... Seriously, I know the OS guide is pretty far off for most non-keys under VF. But I think the one thing that may not be factored into the equation here is that in most cases, I paid less than 40% of guide in the first place for the FN/VF stuff.

 

 

I THINK YOU JUST PROVED MY POINT.

 

If you bought most of your FN/VF books for 40%, what makes you or anyone else expect to sell them for guide price. If you buy them for 40% or guide and can sell them for 50% of guide then you made a 20% profit (before overhead such as shipping, selling fees, Paypal fees, etc.)

 

And if you bought all your books at 40% of Guide, then what difference does it make that O/S Guide moves these books up 10% a year.

Example:

 

1) Book X guides for $100

 

2) You pay $40 for Book X

 

3) Now O/S says Book X went up 10% to $110

 

4) Your $40 goes up $4 (which is also 10%). Now the book is worth $44.

 

But the falacy is putting all these books into a database and saying what the collection is worth say $10,000 when it fact it is only worth $4,000. Then when it increases 10% or $1,000 and you add that $1,000 increase on to your actual cost of $4,000 it now looks like your collection went up 25% (cost of $4,000 plus + $1,000 increase equals $5,000).

 

Once again, don't expect the COMMON books in mid-grades to increase in value much over the next five to ten years.

[panhandlefool]

This is an interesting discussion. I myself have recently become interested in lower grade CGC books (4.0, 4.5) of nice Golden Age issues, simply because I could never seem to win (or afford) higher-grade books (8.0+). I, as a collector, do not mind buying 4.0s or 4.5s at around guide - these are usually solid, nice copies, not "dishrags", but not overpriced or speculated on. I've noticed recently on ebay many nice high-grade GA books being sniped by buyers who appear to have never bought a comic book before, according to their recent ebay feedback. And I feel if there is a "bubble" in the CGC market, the high-grade books are going to take the biggest brunt of it, not simply because of percentages and realized prices, but that's where the "non-collector-investor/speculators" tend to buy/sell, and lack of interest by them could really see a downfall in prices. I really don't think the real collectors of lower-grade key and older books will be affected. Now, as I state this, the mid-grade (5.0 - 7.0/7.5) books to me really do fall in an awkward category - too expensive for the "G/VG collector" and not high-grade enough to attract interest of the high-grade collectors and investor/speculators. Also, it's awkward to even buy a mid-grade to upgrade a book or two in your collection - if you have a GA Action Comics book in CGC 4.0 or 4.5, would you really upgrade to 5.5 or 6.0? I've only bought one CGC book in mid-grade, a Four Color #9 in CGC 5.5 that was beautiful except some dumba** stamped his name/address on every page, including the cover. And I don't know if I could realize what I paid for it for awhile (if I were interested in selling, which I'm not) - but it's a helluva book nonetheless. Just my thoughts. Good luck to all.

[Aman619]

Golden Age books are entirely different from SA and BA in the lower grades. These are solid buys and often overlooked in favor of the high grade copies. Actions below 100 in VG are far rarer (but not rare!) than ASMs below 20 in VG and will increase in value while the Spideys actually shrink.

[Foolkiller]

There was a point in another thread on the board about the eye appeal of certain VF books as to others, and I think this is an important point from some collectors' viewpoint. I agree and have already stated that I don't think that there's going to be an additional value placed on fines or fvfs in the future, but sometimes I think these books can be very, very good values when somebody is looking for books to fill in a run, or to obtain cheaper books. When I first started, I had JIMs 84-125... all of em. But, most of the books, especially from 84-111 were certainly not high grades... they were all fines and vgs. I bought them relatively cheaply (this 5 years ago at half guide) and many of them were very nice looking books. Unfortunately, a few years ago, I got the zeal to upgrade most of these books, and sold the whole run of them, and now wish I could get them all back.

 

My point is that we're talking about the valuation of fine and vgs and where the value is going on those books, but on the Journeys, I doubt I could ever buy those books, even in that mid or low grade at the same price I did five years ago... in many cases, I'd have to pay almost 100% more. I don't know that I could sell them at huge gains, but there was some increase in the value of the fine price on those books. I know most ASMs and other silver age Marvels are available in pletntiful levels, but there are some books which even in mid grade will climb over time because of either popularity or slightly more difficulty in finding. I also tend to believe silver mid grade ffs have climbed slightly in the last few years (especially before 30, and so have spideys)... so, although the spread is clearly widening, I still think Fines are increasing, even in terms of sale prices. This is why I'm a little skepitcal using ebay prices, because the grading there is so hit or miss, and the mentality is to usually never pay high for any mid/low grade... but to me, a mid grade can be a very nice book, with some nice eye appeal.

 

I'm not sure if I made any sense here...

[Aman619]

yeah, you did. I agree there will always be books and certain titles that are harder to find like JIMs that will fly against the logic and be in demand in these grades. In general, though, they are selling for less, and the Guide is lowering the prices (or freezing them and increasing the spreads and NM prices) so unless something were to change, their salability or value is decreasing. Which is not a good thing. All of us have lots of midgrade book sfor one reason or another and it is not a pleasant thought that our database values for these comics are off by maybe 50%!

[garthgantu]

I hear you, Aman... but

1) the value of my collection is only one of many considerations in my decision to collect comic books

 

2) I've always viewed the OS Guide as being off by a good 50% for a sizable portion of my collection's true value.

 

Until pretty recently, the notion of discounting the 'true value' (i.e., the re-sale value) of a collection by 50% or more *applied to everyone* - that is, even a NM copy of say, ASM # 6 would generally only bring 1/2 of the stated OS Guide price. This was largely due to the fact that comic shop / mail order dealers were the most likely place you'd go to sell your comics. It was also due, of course, to the fact that "NM" didn't equal 3x guide in the minds of collectors/investors/speculators or anyone else.

 

You could take your point a step further, I think, and note that *unless your comics are CGCed*, they generally won't sell for 80% or more of guide even if they're true high grade. So depending on what you're selling, you'd have to factor in the cost of slabbing the comic, in order to 'ensure' that you realize the maximum sale price.