Will there be another Hulk 181?

[FlyingDonut]

Sheer madness, I say...the eeriest shades yet of 1990-1993...

 

Oh yeah, this CGC and Ultimates situation has all the markings of a huge bloodbath. I can never understand why people continue to pour money into this sort of short-term fad.

 

Here's a stat: What comic suddenly skyrocketed in value soon after publication and then held its value long-term?

 

Answer: NONE, NADA, ZILCH

 

Gaiman's Sandman #1 hasn't done too shabbily on this front. It went up in value shortly after publication and has never crashed. It's value isn't what it once was, but this issue has maintained strong collectibility and desirability.

 

Now you may claim that it's value never "skyrocketed", and maybe it didn't. But it certainly commanded a solid premium over cover price within months of publication.

 

You want to buy my Sandman 1s for the 1991 Overstreet? I'll be happy to sell you as many as you want.

[GotToHaveComics]

Sheer madness, I say...the eeriest shades yet of 1990-1993...

 

Please elaborate 1990-1993, were the books written well as good as the Ultimate Spiderman and the art is as superb as the Ultimates?

[Darthdiesel]

These are Ultimate completionists and high grade silver collectors are just as guilty of spending buig bucks on a 9.8 because they want a complete elite high grade run of all 9.8s. Ultimates 5 has currently 5 CGC 9.8s on the census. A good amount of the print run had a defect (horizontal line across midcover) and frayed spines that kept the book mostly out of the NM range. Very few prescreens made it past the pre-determined grade. I submitted 15 prescreen of Ultimates 5 with none returned graded and slabbed. This issue has the Hulk going all out and trashing the place (first Ultimate tantrum) and first Hulk on cover of the Ultimates series

[delekkerste]

Please elaborate 1990-1993, were the books written well as good as the Ultimate Spiderman and the art is as superb as the Ultimates?

 

Oh please...if you think the quality of the Ultimate books is going to help maintain these crack-pipe prices over the long run, you are sadly mistaken. There are plenty of once-hot speculative books from the 1980s and 1990s that boasted superb writing and/or art (often much superior to that found in the Ultimate books) and still crashed and burned all the same...Simonson on Thor, Gaiman on Sandman, Liefield on New Mutants and Youngblood, Arthur Adams on Longshot, McFarlane on Spawn, etc.

 

Plus, all the Ultimate books are derivative from the original Marvel stories & characters, which lessens the impact of "1st appearances" in many peoples' books. At least much of the speculative fodder from the early 1990s was based on original characters & concepts. The Ultimate books are also selling to a much smaller (and ever-shrinking) pool of collectors...it's not like you can bank on a lot of people growing up with these series and becoming nostalgic about them and paying big bucks for them in the future.

 

As for your comment on the art, I like Hitch's work on the Ultimates and Bagley's art on USM is generally solid, but they're only noteworthy because so much art these days is just out and out poor. I really don't think many people would agree that the art is playing a big role in the speculative valuation of these series.

 

Bendis's work on USM is very solid, but is it even as good as his Daredevil & Alias writing (neither of which is burning up the back issue bins)? Are you telling me that his writing is propping up the value of USM? Of course not - the valuation of the Ultimate books is simply hype building on hype. Speculation about rarity given the easily damaged cardstock & glossy covers, speculation that the Ultimate universe will either become a large, established entity with longevity or even supplant the regular Marvel universe, speculation on 1st appearances of derivative characters like Ultimate Hulk or Ultimate Venom, speculation that each new issue could be "the next USM #1", speculation that the Wizard crowd will chase the hype to even greater extremes...

 

I ain't falling for that banana in the tailpipe...

 

Gene

[COI]

These are Ultimate completionists and high grade silver collectors are just as guilty of spending buig bucks on a 9.8 because they want a complete elite high grade run of all 9.8s. Ultimates 5 has currently 5 CGC 9.8s on the census. A good amount of the print run had a defect (horizontal line across midcover) and frayed spines that kept the book mostly out of the NM range. Very few prescreens made it past the pre-determined grade. I submitted 15 prescreen of Ultimates 5 with none returned graded and slabbed. This issue has the Hulk going all out and trashing the place (first Ultimate tantrum) and first Hulk on cover of the Ultimates series

 

I realize you make mad $$$ on moderns, and all the more power to you! But you can't compare buying these with buying Silver.

 

There are some mad-house silver buyers, but I don't know of anyone trying to buy all 9.8's of any S.A title. Even with deep pockets, it's basically not possible. Even collecting 9.2's on S.A can't be compared with collecting 9.8 moderns. The main reason S.A commands multiples of guide are the resto checks, and the security in knowing that you're getting the grade you're buying, give or take a few over/under grades. I just got back a batch from CGC where 2 books from 1970 came back color-touched. It really hit hard that you can never fully know what you're buying.

 

 

But these huge prices paid for moderns that just came out yesterday cannot be easily explained(or at least I don't get it). Can the difference really be seen between 9.6, 9.8, 9.9 and 10.0? And even if it can, is the most minor of blemishes even worth the price difference? There's no resto risk(or there sure as hell shouldn't be) and the census data is meaningless because there are 10's of thousands of copies that will probably never be submitted.

 

If I felt that all these buyers were spending this money purely for enjoyment, I wouldn't care. But I know for a fact that some of these people really feel they are investing. So what happens in the future when the "bloodbath" begins? A lot of people will be driven out of te hobby, and that's just bad anyway you look at it.

[GotToHaveComics]

Thanks for your input.

[delekkerste]

is the most minor of blemishes even worth the price difference? There's no resto risk(or there sure as hell shouldn't be) and the census data is meaningless because there are 10's of thousands of copies that will probably never be submitted.

 

That's a great, great point. Despite the lower print runs, there are still tens of thousands of high and super high grade copies out there. And I agree whole heartedly - should the tiniest of blemishes mean hundreds of percentage points of valuation difference for books that, as you said, were just published? Will the underlying book be in such demand that the book will eventually "grow into" this valuation over time? I agree: NO.

 

 

If I felt that all these buyers were spending this money purely for enjoyment, I wouldn't care. But I know for a fact that some of these people really feel they are investing.

 

This is the dirty little secret that nobody is talking about. It is now UNDENIABLE that there are a growing number of newbies speculating in the market. You can see the evidence, as Joe_Collector astutely noted, right here on these Boards - look at all the threads started by newcomers (and other irrationally exuberant collectors) asking things like "what Moderns should I invest in" and "is book X the next Hulk 181?"

 

Gene

[Darthdiesel]

never compared the 2 genres. just said that the same people paying the big bucks on ultimate spidey, x-men 9.8s are sometimes the same high grade silver age BSDs... threw that in there to dispel the idea that it's just "speculators and newbie suckers" paying the big bucks for these. I was calling those guys "Ultimate Completionists" because thei interest spans different ages; more like they want the best copy. They (who usually spend mega bucks on HG of non modern books) must think it is a sound buy at that price if they are dropping the hammer; why wouldn't others?

[Warlord]

Sheer madness, I say...the eeriest shades yet of 1990-1993...

 

Oh yeah, this CGC and Ultimates situation has all the markings of a huge bloodbath. I can never understand why people continue to pour money into this sort of short-term fad.

 

Here's a stat: What comic suddenly skyrocketed in value soon after publication and then held its value long-term?

 

Answer: NONE, NADA, ZILCH

 

Gaiman's Sandman #1 hasn't done too shabbily on this front. It went up in value shortly after publication and has never crashed. It's value isn't what it once was, but this issue has maintained strong collectibility and desirability.

 

Now you may claim that it's value never "skyrocketed", and maybe it didn't. But it certainly commanded a solid premium over cover price within months of publication.

 

You want to buy my Sandman 1s for the 1991 Overstreet? I'll be happy to sell you as many as you want.

 

Hehehe, no thanks. I sold my early Sandman issues back when they "skyrocketed". Haven't bought them back. Which leads to the thrust of my point -- the value of the issues never "crashed".

 

Sure, they may not be worth OPG (don't even know what $$ it is in OPG), but Sandman #1-15 or so have never shown up in any bargain box I've ever searched. If they had, I would have bought back replacements for my copies! I checked eBay before I posted my first comment and it looked like Sandman #1 was in the $10-$20 range. And if you HAVE seen very early Sandman issues in bargain boxes then you're shopping in a better class of bargain box than I've found.

 

Ok, checked OPG and I see $35 is their value. OPG is just a guide, as we all know, and on Sandman #1 they seem to be a little off the mark. Doesn't alter my point.

 

But the eBay prices being realized support my contention that Sandman #1 hasn't crashed in value. Gradually tapered off? Yes. Crashed? No.

 

[shiverbones]

i guess speculator book would have to defined better. Do you mean as soon as its on the stand, such as shazam #1, Howard #1, X-Force #1, etc. it is snapped up by speculators & skyrockets? if so Ultimate Spidey#1 doesn't fit, it took until #3 or 4 for that to start. Neither does Sandman #1, that took until #12 or 13 for the 1st to really be worth anything. If thats not the criteria, then all of these books Skyrocketed: Marvel Spotlight #5, Amazing #101, Iron Man #55, Iron Fist #14, Weird War #1, Ghosts #1 and have maintained their value.

[blowout]

If thats not the criteria, then all of these books Skyrocketed: Iron Man #55, Iron Fist #14, and have maintained their value

 

Are you serious? These two books in perticular took many years before anyone even noticed them. Thanos and Sabretooth did not become hugely popular until the late 80's and their first apps were in the early to mid 70's.

 

What is your point?

[shiverbones]

my point is once they were discovered they skyrocketed & held their value. They were not slow steady builds like ASM#1 or Action#1. They jumped and stayed up for 10 years now. You can't put ultimate spidey#1 or sandman #1 in the class of books that were speculator driven from day 1 and skyrocketed from day one. They didn't. Whether the book took 3 or 4 months like ult spidey#1 or 1 year like sandman #1 or 20 years like Spotlight#5, that is different than pre release hype and drop which is what happened to most of the other books pointed out. Examples were asked for of books that skyrocketed & have held their value soon after publication, so yes the older books don't fit that bill exactly, but i was using them to point out the difference between pre publication hype, which is always a kiss of death, and post publication hype after several issues got out with significantly smaller print runs. and its late. and i have been drinking so my logic may have a hole or two i will see when i read this tomorrow

[Crowzilla]

Here's a stat: What comic suddenly skyrocketed in value soon after publication and then held its value long-term?

 

Answer: NONE, NADA, ZILCH

 

What about Turtles #1?

It had already gone up 10x or more over cover price just by the time issue #3 came out (even though Eastman and Laird always seemed to have a nice sized stack of them at every show).

 

The only time I remember their price really taking a hit was when some NY dealer was suspected of making reprints of it, but it has rebounded.

 

[Crowzilla]

And hasn't Spidey #300 held it's value for awhile now?

Or is it starting to go down?

 

[supapimp]

shiver,

 

i knew what you were talking about, i thought just like blowout did at first, but then figure it out.

 

zilla,

 

re: ASM 300, i thought that when this thread first started, i sold my CGC NM+ 9.6 to ELBRUJO that i got from scottish for a STEAL(thanks scottish) for $175. now they're closing around $250-$300, the book has legs and the prices are rising.

 

yours,

 

pimpy

[shiverbones]

yeah, spidey #300 is a good call, same w/ turtles #1

How about hulk v2#8, its only been a few years, but that wolverine appearance doesn't seem to want to quit.

[COI]

I don't doubt there are some BSD buyers who are buying just for the joy of it, like Spider9698(from what I've heard). For those people who are driven to pay these prices for the love and challenge of collecting, and can afford it, I say have fun! I may not feel the need to pay almost $200 for a book I can get in VERY similar condition for $5, but to each his own.

 

What concerns me are the people that Gene was speaking of above, and that I mentioned in my post. The ones who truly believe they are getting a second chance to live that fantasy we've all had of going back in time and buying up all the AF #15's we could find off the racks for 12 cents. I know, because I've spoken to such guys. Many tend to be young(my age or younger), and feel that buying up all the 9.8+ moderns they can find and hoarding copies of every Ultimate book they can get their hands on month to month will eventually lead them to riches. And some of these people are spending serious money, but have to borrow cab fare if you meet them for a drink, or beg for a 20 to get a lap dance(If you're reading this, you know who you are! ). I've even seen a few kids eyeing every copy on the shelves trying to decide between virtually identical copies. It's a little sad IMO. And I also know for a fact that there are some dealers who encourage this buying, and feed the fantasy. That just pi$$es me off.

 

Then these people become so confident, they come on here and explain why you're a fool to buy an ASM #14 in CGC 9.2, when you can get a full run of Ultimate Spider-Man in 9.8 for that money. Yeesh.

 

 

 

[shiverbones]

i agree with that sentiment, it is a fools errand which will only lead to a giant pile of devalued paper in plastic tombs. I was playing devils advocate that it is impossible for a book to skyrocket & stay there, cripes even ASM #129 is just now guiding for what it did 12 years ago! I think the worst place in the entire hobby to sink you $$$ in is 9.8 moderns.

[blowout]

Then these people become so confident, they come on here and explain why you're a fool to buy an ASM #14 in CGC 9.2, when you can get a full run of Ultimate Spider-Man in 9.8 for that money.

 

[blowout]

cripes even ASM #129 is just now guiding for what it did 12 years ago!

 

Ah, but the guide doesn't tell the real story for some books. You happened to pick one (ASM #129) that has been climbing in value since its mid 90's dip and is peaking(?) at the height of CGC mania.