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Gatsby77
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AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
Or...maybe simply presume James Cameron wasn't exaggerating or lying to GQ when he said the film would need close to make close to $2 bn. theatrically to break even. -
AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
$1 bn. down! 1/2 way to what the director said it needed to do to achieve profitability. Cool! -
AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
But then...you can't have it both ways. James Cameron said break-even on Avatar 2 (just that movie) is ~$2 bn. At a 2.5x multiple, that puts the production cost at $800 million. At a 3.5x multiple, that puts the production cost at $571 million. As Jaydog notes, at a 4.3x multiple, that puts the production cost at the (reported) $460 million. Meanwhile, if the production is *truly* just $350 million (cough cough), breakeven would be either $875 million (at a 2.5x multiple) or $1.2 billion (a 3.5x multiple). The most logical explanation is James Cameron did not misspeak, the breakeven is indeed closer to $2 bn., so the cost was well over $400 million, if not significantly more. -
That was my only gripe with the 2004 (Thomas Jane) Punisher flick. It was solid - but then Man on Fire comes out literally a week later and is better across almost every dimension - writing, action, direction, overall style. And with very few tweaks, Man on Fire could have itself been a Punisher film. It put the actual Thomas Jane Punisher film to shame.
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AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
That makes logical sense, but it hasn't historically held true for the reported budgets of blockbuster sequels - even those shot back-to-back. The Two Towers was not cheaper than Fellowship of the Ring. Matrix Reloaded was not cheaper than The Matrix - it actually cost more than 2x as much. But in terms of back-to-back shoots, Matrix Revolutions was not cheaper than Matrix Reloaded. Attack of the Clones was not cheaper than The Phantom Menace. Rise of Skywalker was not cheaper than The Force Awakens. Insurgent was not cheaper than Divergent. Every Twilight film cost progressively more. With the exception of the second film (Chamber of Secrets), the eight Harry Potter films got progressively more expensive, not less. Even among the MCU, each sequel for a given character cost more than the original. Again, what you say makes logical sense - it just doesn't jive with reality -- particularly not with James Cameron, who tends to break "most expensive film ever" records regularly. -
AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
Exactly - and these two quotes have nothing to do with each other: 1) For Avatar 2 to be profitable, it has to hit ~$2 bn. in worldwide box office. 2) He's finished shooting Avatar 3, much of Avatar 4 & some of Avatar 5. They're separate statements. It'd be different if Cameron said something like "Avatar 2-4 have to gross a combined total of $5 bn." - He specifically didn't, but rather referenced the break-even cost for only this singular film. -
AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
No. You're guessing - also known as making things up - inferring something that has never been stated - nor jives with the reality of independent budgets for past film series that were also shot back-to-back. The most-reported budget for this singular film, Avatar 2, so far is ~$460 million (reported by Deadline, and presumptively validated by Cameron's noting - as reported by Variety, GQ and others, that the break-even for *this* film was ~$2.0 billion - based on his quote In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”). That quote refers to *this* film - not 2+3 or 2+3+4. Yes - he's shooting back-to-back, but that doesn't mean the budgets are inseparable - nor that the Avatar 3 will cost less, despite that's being a logical inference because much of the sets and and costume work is done. See the Lord of the Rings trilogy and Matrix 2-3 -- shot back-to-back with separate budgets that did not get cheaper as they went along. -
Studio Can Be Sued Over Misleading Trailer, Judge Rules
Gatsby77 replied to Cat's topic in The Movie Forum
I doubt many people viewed that trailer and thought, "yeah - that flick'll nab half a dozen Oscar nominations." -
So I finally watched this the other day. As expected, mediocre - with a few glaringly obvious ways it could have been been better. That said, it was fun seeing such high production values given to such a D-list character as Black Adam. We truly are living in a golden age of comic book movies when a studio opts to spend $195 million on *Black Adam* before more obvious choices like Green Lantern Corps, The Flash or even Supergirl. And honestly, I think it was better than either Suicide Squad or BvS. I'd rate it as equivalent to the first Blade or Ghost Rider films -- or, more recently, Bloodshot -- a minor character given A-list studio treatment -- for a pleasant but ultimately forgettable experience. The good? Hawkman was really well done, as was Dr. Fate. There were a few nods to the real-life political struggles in the Middle East -- with foreigners constantly intervening to precious little affect without true knowledge of or respect for the people involved, their culture or history. "It's okay -- I die by electricity." The bad? One-note acting by The Rock -- mostly the fault of the -script, but we've seen the "Superman -- but bad" schtick several times before, and it was nearly always better done (examples include: Watchmen, The Boys, Eternals, Hancock, Brightburn & Looper). All of these featured more interesting choices by the actors -- and/or character development by the writers -- than what we got in Black Adam. Hell - Denzel Washington aping the Punisher in the Man on Fire remake was more fun - because several times he took obvious glee in his sadistic revenge. Just because you're serious of purpose doesn't mean you can't also occasionally enjoy your work too. And for as solid an actor as Dwayne Johnson's become in the last 20 years, his talents were wasted her e. Too much exposition -- *Lots* of talking to give us background throughout. Several explanations would have been better shown than discussed. A few times I wished I was watching The Mummy (Brendan Fraser version) instead. Weak vehicles for exposition -- could have done without the skateboard kid or Atom Smasher. As others have stated, T2-style slang and catchphrase training by the kid didn't help. Weak villain Shazam erasure -- would have been far better to promote a future Black Adam / Shazam conflict in the stinger than leapfrog over him to go right to Superman. And the Amanda Waller intro was weird - if she had access to Superman there was little need to recruit the Suicide Squad in the first place. Like, it was fine -- just a weird film (and set of characters) for Warner Bros. to choose to greenlight when the bog standard superhero / anti-hero plotting felt so 2007-2010. When comic book movies (and TV shows) have evolved so significantly since then. I keep coming back to the barebones "Superman, but antihero" premise - and how much better it's been done elsewhere. Sigh...so there it is. More words than this film deserved, as it slowly (and rightly) recedes into just a weird minor footnote in the DCEU. Now onto (checks notes) Blue Beetle.
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Studio Can Be Sued Over Misleading Trailer, Judge Rules
Gatsby77 replied to Cat's topic in The Movie Forum
Nah - it's more than that. Aside from the fact that they don't go fishing, the trailer misrepresents the entire tone and genre of the film - a buddy road comedy it is not. -
AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
Yes - and as I noted, the only other publicly reported data point that validates it (so far) is the purported admission by Cameron that break-even is ~$2 bn. Which makes a production budget of $460 million more likely than something in the mere $250 - $350 million range. -
AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
Fair. It's early yet - not enough coffee. Here's the citation from Deadline on the $460 million cost (before P&A) - multiple other outlets have run with it but so far the only other validation is the Variety article citing James Cameron as saying to break even, it'd have to be the 4th or 5th highest grossing film ever (which puts it at $2 bn. worldwide box office). https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-1235200714/ -
AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
Well, Deadline's reported the budget (before P&A) is actually $460 million. Assume a $200 million marketing budget on top of that and $2 bn. or so is just ~3x for a breakeven. -
Studio Can Be Sued Over Misleading Trailer, Judge Rules
Gatsby77 replied to Cat's topic in The Movie Forum
And Bridge to Terabithia: -
Studio Can Be Sued Over Misleading Trailer, Judge Rules
Gatsby77 replied to Cat's topic in The Movie Forum
Well - I understand a large part of the lawsuit was about featuring an actor who didn't appear at all in the final film. But I submit my picks for most misleading trailers ever include: Thelma & Louise -
AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
I'm not normally one to bet against James Cameron - because I've lost count of the times he's directed a "most expensive movie to-date" that went on to become an iconic blockbuster (I think T2, Titanic and Avatar all qualify). But...at $350 million, that means break-even is like $1 bn.? That's a hell of a bet. -
Poor Black Adam 2. It's now joined the ranks of: Justice League 2 Man of Steel 2 (twice) Green Lantern Corps New Gods The Trench Deathstroke Gotham City Sirens Deadshot Cyborg The Wonder Twins Batgirl Over 9+ year's DCEU's batting average of announced vs. actually produced is <50%. Meanwhile, WBD's share price is hovering around $9.00, less than the price of a movie ticket.
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Apparently so.
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Worth watching
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TOP GUN: MAVERICK starring Tom Cruise (2020)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
Tom Cruise was among the more notable snubs among this year's Golden Globe nominations.- 464 replies
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AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
This. It was fun visual spectacle. To see once. But the story was derivative - predicable and boring. "Dances with Smurfs" was accurate. Or, as my buddy put it: "Fern Gully - To the Extreme!" -
That's a shame. I grew up in Philly, but visited the Cambridge store a few times. The first trip was important, as it allowed me to complete my Tick collection (the original 1-12) and pick up a # 1 signed by Edlund - this was back in the '90s, the pre-eBay era.
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WONDER WOMAN 3 directed by Patty Jenkins (TBD)
Gatsby77 replied to Bosco685's topic in The Movie Forum
And miss out on Blue Beetle?? Surely you jest...- 181 replies
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