In 2011, I was the underbidder on a PSA 8 1952T Mantle, the one that sold for $86.6K. Recently, one PSA 8 example sold for $660K, with numerous examples in the $400Ks and $500Ks over the past couple of years. Is Mickey Mantle enjoying a resurgence? Did the Chinese discover Mickey Mantle? Did they make a Mickey Mantle movie? FFS, baseball itself is trailing behind the NFL and NBA in popularity, with attendance slightly down after peaking a few seasons ago and more than 60% of viewers watching the sport on TV being over the age of 55. For the Mantle card to go up 7 and a half times in 6 years, with no improvement in the underlying fundamentals, just speaks to how broadly encompassing this liquidity-driven asset bubble has been. Real estate bubbles abound again, at least in many higher-end cosmopolitan markets. Virtually every indicator shows this to be among the top 3 all-time most overvalued stock markets. Bond yields were absurdly negative across the globe last year, and still remain artificially depressed near historic lows. The cryptocurrencies are putting everything to shame; Bitcoin is up triple-digits YTD and Ethereum is up like 40 or 50x in a matter of months. Trophy art & collectibles, whether we're talking about $110.5 million Basquiats or AF 15s or 1952 Topps Mickey Mantles, are similarly surging for no apparent reason other than speculation, FOMO and the feeling that cash is trash.
As a collector friend of mine put it, we are presently living in the greatest asset bubble in history. Maybe Tulipmania or the dot-com bubble were nuttier, but, there has never been such an all-encompassing, globalized asset bubble like this. Not ever. Interest rates are like gravity to asset valuations, and with interest rates in most of the developed world at/near/below zero for years and years and years, we've been in an environment of weightlessness such as has never been witnessed before. And, just like on the moon or in outer space, if you get some momentum going, things just keep going without gravity to weigh things down. But, this environment won't last forever. Markets are self-correcting and returns are mean-reverting over time.
To quote and then paraphrase the billionaire Howard Marks:
"It has been demonstrated time and time again that no asset is so good that it can’t become a bad investment if bought at too high a price. And there are few assets so bad that they can’t be a good investment when bought cheap enough."
When people say flatly, “you can't lose with AF #15s” or “AF #15s is a superior investment," that sounds a lot like “we’d buy AF #15 at any price . . . and we’d buy it before alternatives B, C or D at any price.” That just has to be a mistake. No asset class or investment has the birthright of a high return. It’s only attractive if it’s priced right.
Excellent post. But then again, I'd expect nothing less.