Cat-Man_America

On 3/16/2024 at 11:09 AM, mwotka said:

Wanted to share my most recent Timely pickup, from Planetcon in KC last weekend.  One of my favorite MMC covers.  Hole punching aside, has amazing colors and gloss.  And don't sleep on those interiors!  Here are some killer splash pages.  Severed heads, gator fights, werewolves... Timelys are rad.  

Yessiree, Marvel Mystery #29 has dazzling interiors & a killer Schomburg cover; ...that's what the buzz is all about! 

mister to didn't miss...

On 3/13/2024 at 12:31 PM, atomised said:

I wouldn't be coming to this forum if I wasn't a long term boardie, and desperate for options.  In short, I no longer have space to store my books in my residence due to growing family needs.  Is anyone aware of any luxury storage places that can vault high end books anywhere in the US?  The only place I am familiar with is UOVO Art, and after touring their facility in San Francisco, I was not impressed.  They simply cater to an art audience and do not have an adequate facility for collectibles.  Outside of luxury car storage options, I am not finding any facilities that cater to high value collectibles and the like.  Any suggestions welcome and greatly appreciated.  Basically need a space that can accommodate the equivalent of 10 long boxes under the highest security.  If I could put a safe in my residence I would but I simply can't.  Thanks

My suggestion ...before I duck incoming tomatoes... would be contacting Ft. Knox to see if they have any Airbnb space available. 

hot gal with bow in tight fitting attire to beau with hot gal in tight fitting attire...

On 3/15/2024 at 12:44 AM, ComicsGalore said:

Need some help here. Unfortunately all my knowledge(and all that still amounts to not very much) fall into silver age books and I recently acquired these to sell. The rarity and lack of sales do not help matters much. So I was looking for some advice as far as pricing and/or any info on these particular books that might help me out along the way. Also..not sure if I can do this here so please let me know if I should remove this part but if there is any interest out there to purchase please drop me a message below or inbox. 

Thanks!

Phantom Lady #23 4.0

Spirit #22 5.5

Showcase #22 6.5(restored)

 

 

Yeah, we're not supposed to discuss pricing for owner's books here, but I think I can offer some advice without discussing your specific books or their values. Best advice I can offer if you don't subscribe to an analysis site like GoCollect or GPAnalysis is to log into an auction site like Heritage Auctions (HA) which provides sales histories of comics and search the specific titles and grades taking note of the most recent auctions to give you current trends. Otherwise, I'd suggest investing in a 2023 Overstreet Price Guide keeping in mind that the actual prices listed are very conservative (low) for grades and don't keep pace with rapidly changing market trends.  Hope this helps! 

Sailor thrown overboard in a familiar port of call to sailors thrown overboard in a familiar port of call...

traditional pirates to WWII vintage pirates...

On 3/12/2024 at 8:26 AM, Frisco Larson said:

That sounds like a real plus for those holding his work Cat, unfortunately for me, I'm not one of those people. 

My feeble attempt a humor was apparently on the wrong track.  

Government Issue to the volunteers in the private sector delivering on the home front...

On 3/11/2024 at 1:42 PM, Frisco Larson said:

Sorry to hear you sold it for peanuts a while back. I did as well and have since picked up a few other copies, the raw one above and this certified copy. This one cost a goodly bit, but it is pretty sharp. 

On the plus side, I hear Charles Schultz collectibles are going for a pretty penny. 

Millie to Billy (Wright)...

On 3/9/2024 at 4:36 PM, Mmehdy said:

I think it is unfair to compare the Promise collection on any type of judgement with Church or any other Pedigree which has had 20...30 or 50 years to amass a following after proper distribution among collectors and given that time elapsed long  period in which  major GA market appreciation took place . What I am saying is give the "Promise" collection a  chance and  "Leave them alone" in the immoral words of "Chris Crocker" on Britney Spears.

 When I purchased from Chuck at the SDCC some of the Church issues in the 70's way over guide...If I had attempted to sell them within one year or two....I would be getting the similar results as see here. You are "Rushing to Judgement" way before the real time to make a real decision using proper hindsight.

Got back  TO THE 70'S  and you would probably get worse results then seeing here a couple of years after purchase under this ever sale  of every book microscope . Lets make a intelligent and proper decision when the real time to reflect is right. I am sticking by my prediction and advise...They will in the long run prove to be a great purchase as long you hold for the proper amount of time.....and as I said the Promise book are a great LONG term hold.

 LEAVE THE PROMISE COLLECTION ALONE!!!!!!!

This is certainly another perspective, and in fairness, not totally unreasonable.

But the Church collection pedigree still checks more boxes than the Promise Collection in spite of the time gap between each collection's discovery and marketing. My biggest concern about any "newly discovered" collection is whether the attached hype is self serving to grading concerns and marketers. I'm not suggesting there's any ethical malfeasence going on, just that there seems to be an overwhelming presumption of "greatness" surrounding new finds that may lack the gravitas of long established pedigree collections.

Also, I think the Britney Spears analogy is a hoot, especially the "immoral" words of Chris Crocker (aka Cara Cunningham); ...hey, you said it!   

On 3/9/2024 at 9:27 AM, Robot Man said:

There is the Church collection and the rest are all contenders to the throne…

Each pedigree collection has pluses and minuses. IMO, Church is the best and among the most perfect examples of a discovered collection.  Church has all of the checked boxes, ...depth of numbers, key appearances, exceptional condition (covers and PQ), ideal preservation/storage conditions (which contributes to future longevity), easily recognizable albeit unobtrusive pedigree/distribution date markings, great background story that's fully verifiable, tight 3rd party grading, etc.

So, rhetorically speaking, where does the Promise Collection fall along the pedigree continuum? With no bias whatsoever, my personal assessment is it's way down the list. Granted, the Promise Collection has the numbers, but not a lot of key first appearances; while the overall condition of books as graded is high there's been debate over whether the assigned grades actually meet expectations, the question of storage is iffier, anecdotal and unverifiable, identifier markings vary, original owner story sounds almost too good to be true (and remains questionable as parts of it are unsubstantiated), and so on. This doesn't make the collection any less desirable, but it does provide significant caveats about the hype that resulted in fizzling skyrocket market values. 

Those of us who own Promise Collection books should not see this as a denouncement of the pedigree, but rather see it as a cautionary about "fever-bidding" and the predictable feeding frenzy over newly anointed pedigree collections parsed out into a hungry marketplace via a series of carefully orchestrated auctions under a cloud of hyperbole, mystique and muddled facts. That's my two cents; the caffeine influencer was included at no extra charge! 

On 3/9/2024 at 11:23 AM, Hepcat said:

Given the monumental carelessness they'd demonstrated, i.e. even cashing his cheque despite the comic having been sold days previously to another buyer, they should have offered Badger somewhere between $12,000 and $15,000 of store credit for his $10,000.

No, I'll assume you're being facetious. I think 5 or 10% of actual cost offered as store credit is more in keeping with an error of this magnitude, but you're certainly entitled to another opinion (hopefully you weren't serious). The only real failure of MyComicShop is cashing his check before confirmation of prior sold inventory. My suggestion as a reasonable counter offer is based on the dealer having connections and outreach most collectors don't have and such a good faith gesture would go a long way toward making the customer whole given the level of disappointment associated with snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Of course mileage varies and being a personal fan of MyComicShop's owners I'm just trying to look at this situation from a totally unbiased perspective. 

On 3/8/2024 at 6:30 PM, Badger said:

With a wet noodle? Possibly.  Mistakes happen but on a $10k purchase they hurt a little more than others. Ya know? Especially when they sent me an email a week after I sent payment saying they were depositing the check and it would take a month to clear. They sent that email AFTER they had sold the book. That is quite a bit of money to tie up for a month and then just shrug and move on. Hopefully they updated their processes to confirm inventory before cashing a check. If not for every purchase then at least those over, say, $2500.

Sorry this happened to you. From what I've heard My Comic Shop is usually very good about fixing mistakes. I'll admit $95 bucks in store credit for an error on a 10 grand purchase seems a little lightweight. A better work around might've been offering to use their connections to locate a similar copy in that grade or slightly higher within a reasonable length of time and guarantee you the same price point, thus endearing you to them as a customer. 

Just my 2 cents, ...and I've been imbibing ale. 

On 3/9/2024 at 12:03 AM, lou_fine said:

Totally agree with your POV here that with the tone of the Heritage interviews when the Promise Collection was first released, I got the impression there were clear and distinct implications being made that the Promise Collection was comparable to the Church Collection.  Although I am sure that everybody has a different opinion on what took place, but I found this comparison to be rather absurb and really more hype than anything else with the sole purpose being to drive the resulting prices higher which they were more than successfully able to do.    

From my own personal point of view, if you really wanted to compare the Promise Collection to another comic book pedigree, then I would say that the Big Apple Collection, albeit in much higher condition grade, is a much better comparison.  Especially when you consider the pre-dominant time period and pretty much no-name titles that the bulk of the Promise Collection encompassed which missed out on that entire early key GA years time period through to 1943 that the Church Collection is so noted and remembered for.  

Then again, how much hype can an auction house generate if it makes the claim that their newest collection is comparable to a high end version of the Big Apple Collection, as comparing it to the highly desired and unique Church Collection even though it didn't have A SINGLE ONE of the key early GA Church books in reasonable condition.  By the second go round of resales, it was like the marketplace had finally come around to recognized the possibility that the emperor had no clothes.    

Sadly, looking back on it, the Promise Collection story sure seems like a perfect storm of hyperbole. The brother's tale and mystery certainly added to the heavy buzz around these books, but as a collection I'm not persuaded that this pedigree or the high grade opinions can be compared to the quality of Church and San Francisco/Riley pedigree books.

Was the Promise Collection overhyped? That isn't for me to say. Retrospective sales results suggest there was one helluva hangover following the first drunken orgy of bidding.

I've said it before, I'm happy with the few books from this collection I've won, but I didn't go BID-crazy. The first book cost a little more than expected, but the second and third books were in line with the budget I'd set aside for them.

On 3/7/2024 at 3:55 PM, MasterChief said:

I’m in the same boat, but I don’t consider myself as being “ripped off” as that implies I and others were cheated by Heritage. If it can be proven that we were bidding against N.P. Gresham during the many Promise Collection auctions that went down, then yeah, we who won were ripped off. But I doubt that’s the case here. What the ROI data suggests, however, is that many bidders, including myself, played into marketing hype and the irrational exuberance that followed, thus apparent subjects of the Greater Fool Theory, at least in the short-term.

For those unfamiliar with the Greater Fool Theory, there’s much about it on the web. Here’s just one piece that discusses it (read with the Promise Collection in mind):

The Greater Fool Theory: The Root Cause Of Market Bubbles?
Written byKarl Montevirgen
Fact-checked byDoug Ashburn
https://www.britannica.com/money/what-is-greater-fool-theory

Suppose a stock that’s been hyped on social media goes viral, infecting the social trading space with a severe case of FOMO (fear of missing out). Now, everyone’s talking about it, and soon people begin buying in droves, clogging up the digital order flow space with a frenzied folly of bids.

The stock is already up over 100% from its lows, and by your own estimates, that’s way overvalued—disconnected from its fundamental worth. Yet its price keeps advancing. Do you pass it up, wait for the price to pull back a bit, or do you pull the trigger and buy some shares?

The overblown narrative lifting the stock has proven compelling enough to take prices this far, so why not aim higher? And surely, somewhere in the stratosphere of lofty values, there’s likely to be someone who’s willing to pay an even more exorbitant price down the road, right?

That’s the basis of the greater fool theory. As a trading strategy, it’s an extreme (if not cynical, and most definitely risky) version of a key component of technical analysis—trading on momentum. But as any veteran momentum trader will tell you, when a momentum trade turns into a “bubble trade,” it can go from lucrative to dangerous at a moment’s notice.

Why would someone risk buying a fundamentally unsound investment?

Betting on a “greater fool” outcome seems risky, almost like a gamble. After all, it’s about investing in a bubbling asset or assets in a bubbling market. So, why not just avoid it? Well, it’s not that clear-cut or simple. Not all bubbles are the same. As we’ll see, some are hard to identify and difficult to avoid.

What is a speculative bubble?

A speculative bubble is a situation where the price of an asset rises above its fundamental value because of excessive speculation. In a speculative bubble scenario, investors are willing to pay higher prices for an asset whose real value may be much less. This can apply to single assets or to a group of assets within a broader industry, sector, or market.

So, what drives excessive speculation? It depends on the type of bubble.

Short-term bubbles

More often than not, short-term bubbles are driven by some form of hype. It might be a news report, a celebrity announcement, a social media post gone viral, or any kind of communication that can persuade a large number of people to buy an asset.

When assets experience this type of bubble, their prices are bid up rapidly—fueled not by fundamental value, but rather by narrative.

Long-term bubbles

Long-term bubbles are tricker to detect, as they form gradually and move slowly. These bubbles can last for years, especially if they’re supported by low interest rates (low borrowing costs), which can increase the demand for riskier assets. Typically, this helps boost jobs, wages, wealth perception, and consumer demand. When broad demand outpaces supply, prices tend to inflate, and this includes financial assets.

In a booming economy on the verge of “overheating,” it’s often difficult to tell whether asset prices (like stocks and real estate) are rising thanks to increased value or just plain speculative demand, also known as “irrational exuberance.”

Bubbles of a third kind (no fundamentals)

As an investor (and not a florist), how do you evaluate the financial fundamentals of a tulip bulb? It might sound like an odd question, because tulips aren’t traditional financial instruments. They don’t have the durability common to most collectibles, and they’re not consumable or functional like commodities such as food and gasoline. Yet, they’re infamous for being the focal point of Tulip Mania, one of the most outrageous speculative bubbles in history.

More recently, the cryptocurrency space has shown a similar phenomenon, this time with digital financial assets. Unlike tulips, cryptocurrencies were designed either to provide alternative monetary value or to facilitate financial processes. The problem is that there’s no standardized way to measure crypto fundamentals. The industry is still in its infancy. So it’s almost like having no fundamentals at all, because there’s no surefire way to measure them.

Yet, mass crypto speculation caught on like wildfire, bubbling and bursting in 2017 and 2021, with many “greater fools” taking deep losses.

Should you attempt a greater fool strategy?

Should you avoid overvalued assets, or might you consider betting on a greater fool to help you cash in?

Exploiting a short-term bubble can be ultra-risky. Short-term bubbles can burst in a matter of days, hours, or even minutes. This type of speculation is more of a trade than an investment. Whether you can pull it off really depends on your trading experience, whether you’re able to “babysit” your trades each day, and—let’s be honest—whether you’re feeling lucky.

In other words, you should either be a trading pro, or you should be playing with money you can afford to lose.

But if you’re dealing with a long-term bubble—one that could go on for years—then you face a dilemma. You can either risk time in the market (investing despite a potential bubble) or timing the market (waiting for it to burst, if it is indeed a bubble).

This is where your portfolio management principles and skills come into play. If you’re investing for the long term and using sound risk management principles, then the greater fool theory may not be so relevant to your far-horizon strategy or goals.

The bottom line

It seems there are always greater fools in the market willing to pay high prices for assets on the verge of correction or collapse. The problem is that it’s hard to know how many are out there, whether their numbers are dwindling, and whether the few that are left are wising up.

Sometimes the “greater fool” is a matter of perspective that has more to do with your approach to trading versus investing. If you’re investing with the assumption that a greater fool might be out there, just remember that it could be you.

I agree with pretty much all of this as an overview of the balloon-atic nature of investment collecting, but a bubble in comic collecting is a bit more nuanced because values are so closely tied to 3rd Party grading (that said, I kinda like the tulip analogy in respect to petal-ing comics). Cryptocurrencies are just scary (anything with the word crypt in it has an implied risk of finality). This elusive type of transaction is certainly a variable in the investment criteria of most collectibles these days, but where market bubbles are concerned the monetary sourcing is probably an outlier.  The three biggest factors in bubble perception are these (no particular order):

1) Grade or rather the perception of grading accuracy (trust in the third party grading company's accuracy in establishing comparable values of lower and superior grades)

2) Media speculation (published or heavily rumored television and/or movie studio interest in character properties that are hotly competed for origins or first appearances)

3) Censes rankings (grades and desirability weighed against the number of available copies in the marketplace is the gauge by which all collectible paper is valued)

Note: The factor which I like to zero in on is total censes numbers which determine whether a collectible can be subject to serious volatility in the ebb and flow of an economic downturn. This is one of the reasons I'm persuaded that GA is less vulnerable to catastrophic bubbles (Promise Collection feeding frenzies and market corrections notwithstanding).

On 3/7/2024 at 4:51 PM, buttock said:

Some of us just wanted cool comics and paid what it took to get them.  

I think this is called the bubble gum theory of investment. 

On 3/5/2024 at 4:17 PM, Hepcat said:

Gandy Goose appeared in 54 theatrical cartoons between 1938 and 1955. Sourpuss co-starred in the vast majority and had three solo shorts in 1940-42 himself.

True, but only Subby appeared with more sourpuss goose-steppers on a single cover! 

bondage to war bondage...

DC snow job to Cat-Man blizzard (Cole conditions)...

tied in a tree to bound & hanging limbs...

Fox cover to popular fox on Fox cover...

skull masked villains jaw punched to full boned skeletal body punches and spinal strangling... 

Black Cat to Cat-Man & Kitten...

Horsing around to going the extra mile to stirrup trouble...