tth2

On 4/5/2024 at 9:47 PM, buttock said:

I think the market for books over ~$200k is pretty thin.  There have been several HG Cap 1s, including this retread, offered lately.  So when they come out in relatively short time the hammer is more unpredictable. At least that is probably part of it IMO. But just thinking about it, I could scratch up $156K without it causing too much pain.  I couldn't do $750k without a lot of work and sacrifice.  And I'm a high earner.  

Sure, I get that, but there's still a valuation component that has to be factored in.  If one can get a 9.2 for $750k, then one should be able to get a whole lot more book for $156k than just a 3.0.

The CGC 7.0 W October 1933 ("Batgirl") Weird Tales went for $30k.  It'd been sitting at $25k pretty much since the first few days of online bidding, so not much movement during the floor auction. 

A helpful pricing benchmark for one of the first CGC copies of one of the hobby's most iconic books.  

On 4/5/2024 at 8:27 AM, BLUECHIPCOLLECTIBLES said:

Buyers may be more aware than they have been that highest graded means more in GA than SA.

Of course there can never be 100% certainty, even with Golden Age books.

But if this was a 9.8 Action 1 people would feel pretty confident it is likely to remain the highest graded copy.

If people felt the same level of confidence about the future and ongoing uniqueness of a 9.8 TOS 39, then $2 million might seem more reasonable or even a bargain.

  

  

The main thing that people should assume about any ultra-HG SA Marvel key that is publicly available for sale is that it's no better than the second best copy in existence.  Even if it's tied for the highest grade, it's probably available only because one collector has assessed it and found it to be inferior to his copy.

On 4/5/2024 at 6:18 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

On 3/23/2024 at 7:25 PM, namisgr said:

Perfectly aligned cover and white pages.

Expand  

That's why I had to have it.  

Congratulations!

On 4/5/2024 at 7:51 AM, Dark Knight said:

A dealer at last year's SDCC sold a DD #1 CGC 9.8 for something like $800k. Whoever paid that price took a bath too big time!

Case in point.  To me, $360k is an unfathomable amount to pay for a second-tier SA Marvel key like DD 1.  But because of the even crazier prices previously paid for the book, a $360k price is now framed as an abject failure. 

On 4/5/2024 at 2:36 AM, namisgr said:

On 4/5/2024 at 2:32 AM, Sal said:

how to turn two million into 840k, comics version

Eh, a private deal made by Comiclink.  Who knows if there was trade involved and what it really changed hands for?

Doesn't matter, as that was the publicly announced price and as such, it makes for a terrible narrative for the market.

On 4/5/2024 at 4:05 AM, Vintage_Paper said:

Anyone grab the ending price on the restored 8.0 Action 1 and also the Wonder Woman 2?

$84k

On 4/5/2024 at 12:26 AM, Mr bla bla said:

On 4/4/2024 at 10:30 PM, BFA1971 said:

Wow super comprehensive thanks for sharing the link and ouch!!!

Holy cow.

some dudes have taken a serious haircut.

But they pale in comparison to whoever flipped the 9.8 TOS 39 in this auction.  A $1.2m loss! 

On 4/5/2024 at 1:48 AM, buttock said:

Low grade Bat 1/Cap 1 seem to perform more like SA keys since they are routinely available.  They're more like an asset than a collectible.  

What about the fact that the multiple between a 3.0 and 9.2 Cap 1 is now less than 5X?

The 9.2 Cap 1 went for $750k while the 3.0 Cap 1 went for $156k.  As you rightly point out, Cap 1s are (along with Bat 1) the most commonly available GA mega-keys, so it's surprising to me that the price differential is so small.

Did the 9.2 Cap 1 go for too little, the 3.0 Cap 1 for too much, or both, or do people think they both went for about the right price?

Never mind the gap between Cap 1 and Bat 1, what about the gap between Cap 1s?

The multiple of a 9.2 Cap 1 ($750k) over a 3.0 Cap 1 ($156k) is less than 5X?  Wow!!!  Particularly considering that Cap 1s are (along with Bat 1) the most common GA mega-key, so it's not like Cap 1s in low grade are that rare.   

On 4/5/2024 at 4:04 AM, LordRahl said:

On 4/5/2024 at 3:45 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Right. They’re still good prices for anyone who bought prepandemic 

I wish people would stop comparing pricing today to pandemic pricing. There were a lot of irrational decisions being made during the pandemic, pricing being only one of them. I paid $5K OVER msrp for my car during the pandemic. People locked themselves away from loved ones. People moved away from jobs and are now in a position where they either need to move again or not work. It was silly times and not remotely indicative of real life. 

Nonetheless, the prices were paid and are a matter of public record, thus are going to be the benchmark regardless of how irrational they might've been.  They can act as a mythical benchmark for prices to strive towards over the next couple of decades, just like how the Dotcom Bubble peak prices of many tech stocks set a benchmark for many years (and some have still never returned to those levels). 

On 4/4/2024 at 12:54 PM, AJCohen said:

I also used the weekend to drop off some pulps and comics at WonderCon on Saturday.

Good luck with the grades!  Let us know the results! 

On 4/4/2024 at 9:45 PM, Mr bla bla said:

Any examples of crazy deficit flips?

Post Your Promise Collection Wins!

Just look for the most recent summary of resales of Promise books by Master_Chief near the end of the thread.

On 4/3/2024 at 7:51 PM, Michael Browning said:

Why not ask this in one of the comic BOOK boards on here? I think you'd get a better response and better answers than asking it in an ORIGINAL ART group.

Agreed.  Your chances of finding book collectors would probably be better in the Golden Age and Pulp forums, in particular. 

On 4/3/2024 at 2:42 PM, Kevn said:

Sorry to be off topic, but I know people here have wide collecting interests. My sister is asking for the best place to sell a collection of rare books, first editions, etc. An elderly neighbor of hers has asked for help liquidating her collection, and my sister doesn't have time or expertise to directly help, and lives in a city with no rare book dealers. I'm guessing Heritage is a reasonable option to at least give a rough appraisal and actually sell any books that really are valuable, but wasn't sure if other auction houses are better for books.

What kind of books are they?  Heritage seems to be pretty strong in sci-fi/fantasy books, but I don't know how strong they're considered in other genres.

On 4/3/2024 at 5:20 AM, Bronty said:

What prompted the move?    Different language, different culture, that's a big change for you isn't it?

I retired and wanted to get out of HK (can't talk too much about it because of the Board's policies on politics), my wife is Japanese and we already owned a home here.

On 4/2/2024 at 9:26 PM, Bronty said:

especially in Hong Kong, am I right?

I'm in Japan now, which is 13 hours ahead of US east coast time, which makes staying up even harder.  I don't even try to stay up and bid during the floor auctions, I just put in my best shot during online bidding and then go to sleep (which is probably why I've barely won anything the last few years).

Actually, the bidding will probably go so long now that I might be able to catch the back half of the floor auctions when I wake up! 

On 4/2/2024 at 4:46 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

I hear you, but I have a feeling this time will be different because this auction is the first whereby there will be only two days of OA auctions and I think a lot of folks will forget about that

I don't think they'll forget about the auctions per se, but those sessions are going to be such marathons that people targeting items that'll come up in the back half of a session might have gotten distracted, fallen asleep or lost the will to live, or all of the above, by the time that their lot comes up.

On 4/2/2024 at 2:02 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

i have a feeling this auction will yield many more deals than previous auctions unless by some miracle, bids go 5x-10+x on hundreds of lots between now and auction close

I'll take the over.

On 4/1/2024 at 2:16 PM, Spiderturtle said:

On 4/1/2024 at 11:33 AM, tth2 said:

2.  Based on many of the miswrapped/mis-cut monstrosities proudly posted on these Boards, I'd say that the "buy the comic not the label" group is also only a small minority of the folks on these Boards. 

How about marvel chipping?  Prices much stronger on non MC copies.  The number on the label cannot hide that marvel chipping 

I don't follow transactions in lower grade books, so MC isn't too relevant to the books I track.  But if the market is indeed penalizing books with MC that are getting higher grades from CGC than are warranted, then that's good to hear.  

On 3/31/2024 at 11:26 PM, Hepcat said:

But you realize that you're saying a 9.4 is a 9.4 is a 9.4 (at least for Silver Age Marvels). That flies in the face of the oft repeated "Buy the comic not the label" conventional wisdom on this board.

1.  These Boards represent only a small minority of the market, and based on transactions in the market, I think it's very clear that people are buying the label and not the comic.

2.  Based on many of the miswrapped/mis-cut monstrosities proudly posted on these Boards, I'd say that the "buy the comic not the label" group is also only a small minority of the folks on these Boards. 

On 3/30/2024 at 7:28 PM, Kevn said:

A basement is the last place I'd put OA (or anything vulnerable to moisture/mold).

Wasn't the greatest comic book collection ever stored in a basement for decades?

In any event, while I normally wouldn't advocate storing valuable stuff in a basement, we're only talking a couple of months here.

On 3/31/2024 at 12:09 AM, Hepcat said:

Incidentally, why did you pick Hulk 181 as your example? Is that the pre-1970 comic with the largest 9.0+ CGC census numbers?

It's not pre-1970, but I knew the number of high grade copies in the Census was immense.  It wouldn't surprise me if it is by far the most common 5-figure comic.

I could've also picked any of the 1968 #1s (Cap 100, Iron Man 1, Hulk 102, Sub-Mariner 1), or really many post-1964 Marvel SA books.  The point being that I believe the SA Marvel market is both deep and fungible.  

As I often like to say, the only thing stopping anyone from putting together a 9.4 SA ASM run within a couple of weeks is whether they can write the check.