VintageComics

As always, GPA is only a guide and only as good as how you interpret the data (and as good as the data that is supplied) For example, if people are hitting BINs on eBay to spike GPA data but not paying for books that isn't real sales data. They haven't submitted their numbers for that auction yet, I'm assuming. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- @Jaydogrules, sorry but anybody who knows the market knows that the $450K sale in 9.4 was not an anomaly or a surprise that would cause a surge in price. The 9.4 sale @ $450K may have been a record at the time but it was expected by anybody who had reasonable market expectations. There was already a precedent of high grade AF #15 sales both privately and publicly. In fact, Metropolis had a WTB paying that much for AF #15 well before the Heritage auction topped out at $450K. So how could it be a surprise that sent the markets surging? In fact, if you read this thread there was some disappointment that it 'only' ended at $450K. Nor was the 8.5 sale @ $150K a big surprise. AF #15 was already a $125K book in 8.5 more than 4 years ago. I know because I tried to buy one at that time. And there was a Voldemart CBCS 9.0 sale @ $240K So the expectation of a 9.2 hitting $350K was already established. I question the validity of the $392K sale because it was submitted by Pedigree and Doug has a habit of bolstering sale value with heightened trade value. But yes, it is on GPA so the general public will accept it as such. And I do agree that Barton's CGC 9.2 $450 sale was a strong number but would also argue that it was the real anomaly as a 9.4 was available for the same price a few months earlier. -------------------------------- In comparison, the Hulk #1 9.2 sale @ $330 was unexpected as there was no precedent to establish it. There was only extreme rarity in grade to drive the price. -------------------------------- But even in light of those number and last years mid year surge (AF #15 seems to surge every year) you are still moving the goal posts. This new surge is entirely based on the record prices of 3 copies that set record numbers at the CC auction. And the main point of my argument is that all 3 copies were exceptional for the grade - the unexceptional copies sold for regular numbers in the same auction those copies may have all been improvable (I know the 4.5 looked to be and was in an old label holder, I'm certain the 9.0 was as I studied it in hand and I'm fairly certain the 5.0 copy will be as well) the general public doesn't take the fact that these 3 copies were exceptional for the grade into account - they only see grades and prices, as witnessed by the eBay sellers bumping their prices and referencing these auctions specifically. And the last point is the most important one. Asking prices shifted, WTB requests increased (and the amount of PMs I received looking for AF #15 were at an all time high) - ALL AFTER THE CC AUCTIONS ENDED. How anyone can argue these points is beyond me. I won't bother arguing any further. I've made my points and would bet the house that I'm right.

Gang,, I'm going to pull the raw books from the sales thread and this thread for the two remaining slabbed books left. If anyone has any interest or wants to make an offer feel free via PM. Incredible Hulk #181 CGC 9.2 OWW - Asking $3800 Rawhide Kid #26 CGC 9.4 OWW - Asking $2500

If all you do is chase the money you eventually lose it too.

This wont be true, no matter how many times you state it. You're absolutely right. A simple, forensic look at the evidence makes it true. There were books in the auction that didn't set record prices because they weren't exceptional for the grade or upgradeable. That is evidence that any intellectually honest person would accept and base their evaluation. Check and mate. Bye.

It shows a lack of actual conviction and leadership from those that are highest up. They need a Kevin Feige type editor who can tie it all together. I especially agree on the bolded parts. They need to crossover better between movies and comics as one will be a gateway to another. And Wolverine is dead and Punisher is black? They deserve what they are getting, and I'm a lifelong Marvel fan.

You know, maybe 'baseline' is the wrong word. Instead of calling it a baseline, I will call it a new surge forward. The new surge forward was caused by the 3 (or so) record prices in the CC auction. Right after the CC auction, sellers on eBay (and other dealers who were using the CC auction as a data point) to re-evaluate their pricing strategy creating a surge in prices across the market and forcing new willing buyers to pony up more than they would have pre CC auction. And some would even state the reason for the new prices as being the CC auction. But the fact that some of the record prices were due to the CC books being exceptional copies was not stated.

I agree, it's a lot of risk but this is how those that play the game play it. If the 9.0 that sold for almost $400K upgrades to 9.2 and a 9.2 just sold for $450K, that's still a $50K profit, right?

Supergirl, Hulk... is that you? If I knew it was him I wouldn't have replied.

It's a baseline in the sense that the rest of the market is now adjusting to those record CC prices. As I said earlier today, the 7.5 is a very nice looking copy. Don't think it will upgrade but under this new frenzy, and because it's a nice looking copy it will sell for a strong number. Again, as I said earlier the 6.5 has lots of stuff that looks fixable - back cover has pressable defects, dirt that can be remove AND the front cover is very clean looking. This is the type of copy that sets a record.

If someone wants to find a high grade copy they're much easier to find than Hulk #1. And I'd bet that if someone really wanted one they could find one. I know I could.

Just how many sales will it take to convince you that AF15 is rising in value in all grades. I didn't say that AF #15 is not rising in all grades. I said that in my opinion the initial surge last month was not caused by regular market demand, it was caused by several copies being either above average specimens or upgradeable copies making it look like record prices for normal copies. Prices now are rising, but they are rising because of the record prices set in that last CC auction.

This is my line of thinking also. Selective sun fade based on exposure. Yup. There is no red on the bottom half of the back cover to check but I'm also betting sun fade. You can make out the letters in the yellow circle. They're just faded.

Of course they are. Because the perception is that this is the new market baseline for AF #15. Like I said a few weeks ago, if the market accepts those 3 record sales as the new baseline all prices will rise. My point is that those 3 record sales are NOT indicative of the normal market.

It doesn't matter who has one for sale. Google trumps CC. If Storms, or myself or anyone has a copy for sale people will find it.

As I said, it's easy to track forensically when you remove all the distractions (like upgradeable copies, copies that didn't sell for record numbers, etc). No tangible evidence? I held the 9.0 in my hands and made the decision that it looked upgradeable to me 2 weeks before the auction ended. I think I know a thing or two about how to grade a comic. What's absurd is to think a $450K 9.4 sale (an all time record) and then a 9.2 $450K sale a few months later (for the same price as the 9.4 a few months prior) and then a 9.0 $400K sale is normal market dynamics or based on movie interest. AF #15 has been movie bumping since the mid 2000's but this isn't a movie bump IMO. "Demonstrably false?" No, you're now throwing around empty words in an effort to bolster your argument like you always do. What happened with Hulk #1 was entirely different. Hulk #1 is a much tougher book VF range and higher and when a 9.2 copy hit the market it sold for a record price because you may not have another opportunity to buy another. There is only one highest 9.4 copy. There are 3 AF #15's in 9.6 and 3 in 9.4 and many more in 9.2/9.0 - if you really want one they are much easier to find.

If the run up was due to movie interest across the board you'd see rising prices across the board in many venues (as Foolkiller said earlier). We didn't see record prices on eBay before that or on other venues because the demand wasn't there. If you look at it forensically the run up in price IMO was specifically due to improvable copies giving the impression that demand is crazy and then other markets begin to follow as people panic to buy a copy because they believe that they'll be priced out.

What I hear from sellers is that scans make the defects look bigger/worse so they don't like using them. Boo hoo. Some scanner can make defects look worse. For example they can make a book look tanned when it isn't tanned at all. But that comes down to scanner choice. I scan all of my books unless I'm not close to a scanner, in which case I try to provide good pics.

I post back cover pics if there are defects to be seen ( I also usually notate this in listings). If there is no back cover pic, you can assume that either defects are too small to be seen in a scan or the back cover is clean and free of defects. And of course if someone requests a BC pic even if it's clean and free of defects I still post it upon request.

Those sellers are about as shady as they come. Plenty of stories about their scamming on these forums.

They have an interesting strategy. Most of the record setting copies last month had improvable defects and potentially improvable grades and those books led the way. Remember, I looked at the 9.0 and thought it had a shot at 9.2 after improvement, which is why I believe it sold for 9.1 price. So those books set record highs and then people who don't think about or know about improvement will panic to get a copy, driving up prices on non-improvable copies. Again in this auction, the 7.5 looks terrific for the grade (although I don't see it going to 8.0) but it's high grade enough to draw serious bidding fire (I always stated that I believe 'high grade' starts in the VF range and this book falls squarely in the VF range) and the 6.5 does indeed look like it has improvable defects - the back cover doesn't look pressed, the cover looks dirty, etc AND it has a very nice looking front cover. So I think you can expect another round of very strong auction prices based on the strategy. What I don't understand is why books on the market haven't sold at these prices before those record sales last month. And THAT is the real question .

These RAW books are remaining: Take 18% off RAW books listed below. Aquaman #29 VF 8.0 - 1st Ocean Master - Asking $500 Brave And The Bold #60 VF- 7.5 - Asking $450 Showcase #24 7.0 / 7.5 - Asking $550 Showcase #37 6.5 (could go 7.0 on a good day) - Asking $600 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you're interested in the Hulk #181 CGC 9.2 or Rawhide Kid #26 CGC 9.4 you can message me to discuss. I have some room on those books.

Rawhide Kid #26 CGC 9.4 OWW - bought this book a few years ago because I fell in love with the cover. Time to let it go. Single highest graded copy with a 9.0 trailing it that just sold last year for $1500. To add some perspective, this tough book precedes AF #15, Hulk #1 and JIM #83 by several months and is preceded by TTA #27 by one month (1/1962). Asking $2500

Thanks, Robert. Going to add a couple of freshly graded keys. The raw books are now at 15% off. These books are not included in the discount. Incredible Hulk #181 CGC 9.2 OWW Asking $3800

Thanks, David. Please take 15% off all remaining books.