eschnit

On 9/24/2021 at 1:16 PM, Cat-Man_America said:

I boldfaced the most relevant points, but will digress from Saddle Justice as I don't want to stirrup trouble.  

The two highest bidders is probably less meaningful in the marketplace than where the third bidder dropped out.  In my estimation that figure would be a more trustworthy indicator of a book's real world value.  

It's one of the reasons establishing values in Price Guides and through data analysis sites is so exceedingly difficult. Price Guides are too conservative and irregularly published to provide accurate baseline values.  Also, Guide values tend to go out of date quickly. Data Analysis sites are much better for keeping current on market activity (sales) if their coverage is thorough enough, but that's the catch.  Analytical sites are often compromised by providing incomplete data, exclusivity deals that showcase their preference for specific grading services and auctions and proprietary practices that cover only part of the existing sales information.   This is also complicated by a system that prioritizes grading as "trustworthy" while penalizing competition (...go with the competitor and you're leaving money on the table) and the leading grading service engaging in business activities that create an appearance of coziness with one of the leading auction houses.  

To add to this confusion "trends" are an iffy proposition usually reliant on media speculation, which is real enough, but always a dice roll.  Collector fueled frenzy is a poor investment strategy.

The obvious irony is the Promise Collection being regarded by some as the most amazing collection ever discovered.  Granted, it's a remarkable collection, but everything else surrounding it appears to be pure hyperbole.  It wouldn't surprise me if this narrative comes back to haunt some of those Kool Aid drinking collectors/investors you alluded to and even the CGC if their management isn't careful.  

If I were a betting man, my chips would be on major players in these businesses cashing in and bailing before things go south.  To analogize where the collecting world stands, if the collecting marketplace were compared to a great white whale of legend (Moby something-or-other), those who profit from the chase won't be the folks volunteering to ride it to the end.  Keep your eye on the key players involved in the CGC and Heritage.  Look at their movements like a "weather vane." If everything goes south in the markets or pedigree interest, the spinning will stop, but they'll still land on their feet.

Note (beluga caveat): The Promise Collection is an excellent pedigree with a great story behind it, but the embellishment of it's importance in concert with the hyperbolic public promotion without deference to other well respected pedigreed books of equal or superior distinction is jaw dropping in it's mendacity.

Too much caffeine today!

 

I agree with much of what you said, but would suggest something else to consider. Regarding “cashing out”, there’s another aspect.  All asset classes have inflated, to such a degree that one could suggest cashing out before it’s too late in pretty much every single asset class one can name.  Stocks, real estate, crypto, currency, art, comics, coins, cards, gold and silver, classic cars, bonds...if you can come up with anything else, I can almost assure you the price is way up from where it’s been, just recently.  

Nothing is cheap, or on sale.  If I look at prices some comics went for in March of 2020, and see it was half of what I have to pay today, I don’t regret not buying the book then for a second.  Would have been a horrible way to spend my money, given other asset classes have tripled or quadrupled, and if you chose wisely, a lot more than that.

I’m not suggesting prices of comics won’t come down.  Or even that divesting some won’t be a smart decision.  Certainly it might be, and the big players may be out in front of it.  All I’m getting at, is it’s not really obvious that comics are a bad place to have capital invested relative to anything else right now.  

On 9/20/2021 at 10:07 PM, Professor K said:

And that is a really nice piece. Like Master Chief said it looks like its gone from the site now. So unless it shows back up for auction soon I suppose we'll probably never know what happened to it. A few days ago I was looking at it up close, such colors and detail. I should have saved the picture.

Spoke too soon. I couldn't find it when searching on the HA website but when I searched it on a search engine site I found it

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/paintings/frank-frazetta-the-people-that-time-forgot-captive-princess-cover-painting-original-art-a/a/7246-91006.s

I didn't know it was the first time it was ever sold in auction. I would think it would sell for at least a half million.

I could be wrong, but I’m almost certain it simply had a reserve that was not met.  They opened the live bidding at the minimum reserve, when no bids came, they said it would be available on the site.

On 9/20/2021 at 12:40 AM, woowoo said:

Did this not sell last week ? if so why is it for sale again 

Fantastic Comics #3 Incomplete (Fox, 1940) CGC PR 0.5 Off-white | LotID #34015 | Heritage Auctions (ha.com)

No, it’s a different copy.

On 9/4/2021 at 4:45 PM, rexinnih said:

I also thought Fassbender did a pretty good Magneto.

Magneto is definitely a villain obviously.  But I’m trying to remember something. I remember McKellen as Magneto in at least 2 or 3 X-Men movies 15-20 years ago.  And I remember Days of Future Past where I guess that was Fassbender.  In Days of Future Past, is he even really a villain?

On 9/24/2006 at 11:21 PM, *paull* said:

Wow, what a beauty!

 

Are there any Chesler completists out there?

Talk about masochism, I hope not.

This one ain’t too shabby (in November auction)

On 9/14/2021 at 12:54 PM, szav said:

Ugh,,, don't think I can afford a second Promise Collection book.  I'll probably just have to content myself with my years ago cheaply acquired Joe Nacca NM copy.

Lol

Though I’m sure I haven’t, it feels like I’ve seen every Gold book, but I’ve never seen this one before.  It has zero copies on the census. What gives?  1947, not all that early. 

On 9/13/2021 at 7:52 PM, batman_fan said:

Wow wow wow, they just dropped a bunch of Batman Promise books

You don’t want that lame book 🥸

On 9/13/2021 at 11:38 AM, Frisco Larson said:

Ha! I ALMOST typed that! An awesome issue and quite a copy to have! I love the White Mountain books! I think I only have just this one book from that pedigree (sorry, it's not a Spidey).

That’s a cool book too.  Poor Dr. Strange.  Whatever quality control Marvel had in place to be consistently good, Paste Pot Pete on the Dr. Strange intro cover was a miss. Love Dr. Strange, can’t pull the trigger on a Strange Tales 110 though lol.  
...I like the White Mountain pedigree too.  Among silver, it’s one of the best.

On 9/13/2021 at 12:58 AM, bluechip said:

If by interested parties you mean more fans of Spidey who might hear what the comic sold for, I would agree.  But if by interested parties you mean people with the sort of money they could and might actually pay 3.6 million for a comic book, you're talking about people who are both superhero fans and top copy chasers and they probably know a peak condition copy of Action 1 or Detective 27 is far less likely to end up sharing that status with as many other copies as an AF15.   And they will also know that if they happen to like Spidey more they can find a newsstand appearing copy virtually any day they are prepared to pay the going rate, and that's not necessarily true of A1 or Tec27

I agree with you.  I meant the first basically. I think the top Tec 27 or Action 1 would break this record, and certainly is the more exciting book to me.  All I meant was 1000s of folks own AF 15s, and 10s of 1000s consider it a grail, along with whatever heat comes from Spidey being hot right now.  Whereas Action 1 and Tec 27 are obviously more thinly owned, and there aren’t too many that consider them real grails.  Meaning, how many realistically believe they they’ll ever potentially own 1.  Because that market is relatively small, I just think the fervor in advance of the auction may not be as big, and so, the trickle down effect for the rest of the auction may not be as much.  Not sure if that makes sense.  But that was my thought.

On 9/13/2021 at 6:28 AM, Frisco Larson said:

WOW!!!! I'm just now seeing this and I gotta say, it's pretty spectacular!!!

Thank you!  I love it too, though I think it’s more Amazing than Spectacular 😂

The 4 possibilities I’d offer are:

Dentist’s:

1) Allentown Tec 27

2) Mile High Action 1

...then

3) Amazing Fantasy 15 CGC 9.6 

4) Other

...my guess is that’s the order right there.  The Tec 27 is apparently at least a 9.6 if it were graded.  The Action is 9.2ish.  There are 4 AF 15 CGC 9.6s.  I don’t know what would be 4th.  The Mile High Cap 1 if it’s a 9.8 might be a contender, but the formerly Nic Cage copy of Action 1 I’d guess is worth more. My opinion doesn’t matter though.  What do the experts think? 

On 9/12/2021 at 1:35 AM, Gotham Kid said:

why do you say that ?

I don’t really know enough to speak on it.  Others probably know better.  I do believe he has toe Allentown Tec 27 that’s far and away the best copy anyone knows of.  I’d guess both his Mile High Action 1 and his Tec 27 would far exceed the hammer on the AF 15 that just sold.

It would be really interesting to see them both sell in the same auction.  I don’t think value is necessarily defined by the 2nd most someone is willing to pay at a moment in time.  But there’s not a better way to come up with fair value that I’m aware of.  That auction would obviously shatter records if it were done at a decent time in the economic cycle. 

On 9/11/2021 at 5:48 PM, Ltpink2002 said:

Great book!

On 9/11/2021 at 5:31 PM, Mmehdy said:

Records continue to be broken, one auction to go...$ total so far $24,274,271.00

I think Heritage may have a challenge outdoing this one.  Doubtful there’s any single book on the planet that would cause as much stir as 1 of the 9.6 AF 15s.  The highest graded Action 1 and Tec 27 are worth more imo, but less interested parties. Now if The Dentist chose to liquidate, that may do the trick, but that ain’t happening, and if it did, wouldn’t happen on Heritage.  Regardless, super impressive, and probably shouldn’t underestimate their ability to pull rabbits. 

On 9/11/2021 at 3:46 PM, szav said:

Dang...glad I 'overpaid' for a copy a few years ago.  Not a super pretty copy either, although I kinda like the additional lean the miscut gives her.

So my eyes weren’t deceiving me.  That’s an impressive miscut, perfectly lined with her lean.

On 9/11/2021 at 8:24 AM, Ameri said:

Just a matter of time when it will be the #1 book (again). 

Many of those books are worth more than 100x guide 40 years ago, that's pretty amazing.  Those are prices for NM- right?  Showcase 4 jumped from $450 to $800 in a year, what a move!

AF 15 $450 

Tec 27 $4500

That Crimes by Women 3 was intriguing.  I guess I wasn’t the only one that thought as much. (Not Mine) 

On 9/10/2021 at 7:51 AM, Mystafo said:

There's a scene from Daredevil season 2 where Fisk and Murdock are talking over a table in the prison where Fisk is being held...it's the best thing I've ever see D'onofrio do. It's spine-tingling

Okay, I’ll have to check it out.  If you haven’t seen Godfather of Harlem, highly recommended.  Without giving anything away, Forest Whitaker plays a kingpin drug dealer, D’Onofrio is some of his competition, and makes Whitaker’s character look like a saint.  And he’s totally believable.  Like, you know the way say Bardem is in No Country, Ledger in Dark Knight, Pacino in The Godfather, as if they’re not playing a character at all.  One of my favorite actors. 

On 9/9/2021 at 1:32 PM, Mystafo said:

D'onofrio's Wilson Fisk

Molina's Doc Ock

Thomas Hayden Church's Sandman 

Mark Strong's Sinestro (not really a villain in GL)

Tom Hiddleston's Loki

Nicholson's Joker

So I caught The Punisher on Netflix, and loved it, albeit, it wasn’t universally well thought of.  I started Daredevil, but stopped after a couple episodes, was just annoyed with the whole cancelling of certain shows because of Disney+ or whatever. I didn’t realize D’Onofrio played Kingpin.  He is an exceptional actor in my opinion.  He’s such a in Godfather of Harlem.  So good.  I see he’s coming back in Hawkeye.  Good at making the good guy with issues look like the good guy, because he’s such a punk.  Look forward to it.  He’s perfect for that role.  Makes sense for a Spidey movie at some point.