the blob

So in the last week or so the market has pretty much completely bounced back based on what has been posted here? 

On 5/31/2024 at 2:15 PM, Q.N.S. said:

The S&P yield is about 1.5% annually. But, it's a valid point for those who just hold and reinvest dividends. 

Not sure how realistic it is to compare returns on them, much less predict the next 6 years. 

I'm pretty firm in the assessment that comic books are a sound inclusion in an asset portfolio. 

I don't even file taxes, let alone book them when I sell comic books. 

10% commissions. If you are buying and selling blue chip books, like the ones you are quoting, then the paper trail is eventually going to get pretty hard to ignore

On 5/17/2024 at 12:22 PM, Q.N.S. said:

Just a reality check. Since 2018, the Dow has risen about 58%, and the S&P 78%. 

As of April's data, the Silver Age Index is still up 252% in the same time frame. The Bronze Age is up 110%, and the Copper Age is up 69%. 

The big difference is that stocks, metals, etc, these are at their 5-year highs, but comic books are way off their highs. 

Comics are around their supports, and still compare favorably, while the others are far extended.

 

You are not including dividend reinvestment. S&P is up 107% since 1/1/2018. Transactional costs and taxes are higher for collectibles as well.

On 5/15/2024 at 5:51 PM, Rip said:

The Overstreet has been massively off as long as I can remember collecting comics even back in the 80's and 90's.

I used to use the CBM and enter as many telephone auctions as I could to find out "real" pricing.
After winning a few here and there I would modify a want list often offering 5-30 times guide for various golden age books.
At the same time I knew many dealers that would use the Overstreet as a bible and I'd buy golden age books from them as much as I could. 
On rare occasion I still find collectors pricing their books using Overstreet.

The most valuable things in the Overstreet are the Dealers report, and the various dealer ads.

I used to go to shows in the mid/late 90s and spend $200 on BA/SA/GA books and guide would say I had $2,000. It was all make believe.

On 5/20/2024 at 9:57 AM, 1Cool said:

I'm hoping to watch it this week since it's free on Netflix.  For those that have watched both - between this and The Marvels which one is worse?

I was actually more disappointed with the Marvels because I had higher expectations, but the plot was a bit less of a mess. I actually thought Dakota Johnson wasn't terrible, but I like her as an actress. Sidney Sweeney was wasted. Madame Web definitely did not feel like a movie with an $80-100 million budget. It felt like 2 episodes of a WB super hero show, maybe one with a bit more effects like Supergirl or Flash. The Marvels felt like a Marvel TV show with 45 minutes of filler fluff added. That it cost $200+ million to make is astonishing.

I watched this on Netflix and i have to say I didn't think it was terrible. Better than Morbius for sure. It did need a script doctor though and the big tease with the 3 spidergirls is silly as there will be no sequel.

On 5/17/2024 at 12:28 AM, RockMyAmadeus said:

from the ebay chat groups already.

there were chat groups on ebay in the early 2000s. 

On 5/15/2024 at 3:17 PM, Q.N.S. said:

But the reasons are because of Covid boom. Before this, you the retailer only would knock off 10-30%. There are cases where nothing is marked off, or at least there used to be in HTF's and rare and as market conditions demand. So, I don't blame Overstreet. Noise is just noise. Comics are not supposed to go up and down so much in the course of one year. If they do, we have insufficient methods of tracking them. Cars don't sell for Kelly Blue Book, or even new ones for list price. It used to be that LCS would sell 50-80% price consistently of guide which means they buy for 25-40% of guide unless they know there will be a buyer, it can go higher in those cases. 

Overstreet's prices will settle off and I'd be more interested in a 2024 or 2025 volume than in a 2020-2023 volume. Just because an auction was timed poorly or timed perfectly or hit a book when it was on movie/tv show highs doesn't mean the book is really worth that. It only means someone was willing to pay that much or accept that low in exchange, but it's not the actual value. So much of the comic market is still not data-logged online. This is why I trust the vast network of dealers who contribute to Overstreet. I believe not backing Overstreet's mandate to stay premier and legitimate is a major mistake. 

My old LCS used to regularly give me 50% off guide on almost anything in the store, granted, most of his higher grade books were already gone by then because he had another group of customers that he didn't offer 50% to, but did offer 15-20% off for VF+ and better books. Understood with the offer would be that I would be spending at least $100, which was real $ 25 years ago.

On 5/9/2024 at 8:35 AM, Stefan_W said:

Huh, yeah what I thought was a 7 could be a 1. My mistake. 

So it definitely could be distribution related, but the point that some people dont like the big numbers at the top of the cover and may not have bid because of that still stands. 

Yeah, if this is your big purchase of the year and you want that ASM 1 I could see avoiding this one even though those defects are allowable in grade. Fact is there are good looking 5.0s out there, you don't need one with ugly writing if you are laying out the price of a decent used car.

On 5/9/2024 at 5:59 PM, thehumantorch said:

When in doubt summon CGC Mike.  He doesn't just moderate this forum, he also advocates to the best of his ability for us when there's problems.

Is he like Janet on the Good Place?

On 5/8/2024 at 10:24 AM, Dr. Balls said:

When it comes to opening something up and being disappointed, nothing tops:

Not if you need to blow your nose before getting busy

On 5/8/2024 at 3:27 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

Over the long run Stocks usually bring back 9 percent. Also much more liquid than Comic books, plus no storage or insurance costs. To me they are not boring as I love my Apple and Chipotle  stocks. These stocks can buy me more comic books. lol.

Rando stock picking doesn't necessarily bring back 9%, it may or it may not, could do much more or less, but yeah, the overall market has been around there, not every year, but on average. That does not mean 9% compounded though.

On 5/8/2024 at 2:33 PM, Stefan_W said:

That copy has writing on the top front. In that grade the type of defect is really important and I can see a lot of potential buyers waiting for a different copy.

 

the writing on the top looks lik it could be a date or something to do with distribution, the "DAN" written under the R is not

On 5/7/2024 at 9:20 PM, jimjum12 said:

My Uncle bought Berkshire Hathaway @$2500. It doesn't always have to make sense. GOD BLESS ... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) 

 

BH is not an index fund, but it is one of the few managed funds that actually beat the market.

On 5/7/2024 at 4:06 PM, paperheart said:

I do use 'While the Wife's Away..." delivery service

I can't do it, she'll yell at me when she sees the package before I get home.

RMA is an expert on these things. I believe he may have written his masters thesis on Maxx 1/2 Gold before he wrote his PhD thesis on the print-run of New Mutants 98.

On 5/7/2024 at 2:59 AM, lou_fine said:

Or they can also lose as much as 75% to 95% of their stock market investment if they brought into some of the pandemic related stocks or overly hyped flash in the pan stocks in former red hot sectors which are now stone cold dead.  

So why do that? Just buy a boring index fund rather than trying to pick stocks. Avoid get rich quick schemes and you should be fine. I bought razorfish at 75 cents a share in 2002 rather than Apple because razorfish (an internet darling at one point that had been maybe $100 a share?, now you've never heard of it) had just turned a profit and I thought razorfish had turned the corner. That's the last time I tried to pick stocks. Razorfish briefly went over $1 and then tanked and was bought internally and I lost most of my money. Thankfully it was only like 2000 shares maybe and I wound up making up for it buying a lot of QQQ near the bottom. My stock picking is like hunting dollar box books except I am much better at hunting dollar box books.

On 5/6/2024 at 11:27 AM, rsouxlja7 said:

I think it's fair to say the people who make money in this hobby are the dealers and collection flippers. I bought and sold collections to fund my own collection for around 7 years and made way more money than I made in the stock market, but that's because I obviously wasn't paying FMV for the stuff I bought. The people who just bought and held in the same timeframe may have done well too depending on what they bought and when they bought it. If they invested heavily from 2019 onward I really doubt they've made much profit. 

The math is simple. If I buy a book on eBay for $1,000 right now I am going to pay closer to $1,100 with shipping and sales tax. I would need to sell that book worth $1K for closer to $1,300 to get my $1,100 back after accounting for eBay fees. So we are talking about a built in 30% gain needed just to turn a profit if, like most people, you are going to be doing both your buying and selling on eBay. The numbers aren't as bad if you are going to sell via FB/IG but there are still PayPal fees involved and now that we are in a buyers market people are not willing to pay the same price that they'd pay on eBay - everyone wants a built in ~10% discount. 

This doesn't even factor in the unfavorable tax rates on collectibles (or running a small business if that's how you operate) vs passive income from the stock market. 

I dunno about the running a small business thing though. Seems like if you actually derive a decent amount of income from selling you can come up with a lot of deductions against that income... like deducting your trip to lovely san diego as part of your business, deducting part of the cost of your car, employing your children, and so on.

On 5/6/2024 at 11:27 AM, rsouxlja7 said:

I think it's fair to say the people who make money in this hobby are the dealers and collection flippers. I bought and sold collections to fund my own collection for around 7 years and made way more money than I made in the stock market, but that's because I obviously wasn't paying FMV for the stuff I bought. The people who just bought and held in the same timeframe may have done well too depending on what they bought and when they bought it. If they invested heavily from 2019 onward I really doubt they've made much profit. 

The math is simple. If I buy a book on eBay for $1,000 right now I am going to pay closer to $1,100 with shipping and sales tax. I would need to sell that book worth $1K for closer to $1,300 to get my $1,100 back after accounting for eBay fees. So we are talking about a built in 30% gain needed just to turn a profit if, like most people, you are going to be doing both your buying and selling on eBay. The numbers aren't as bad if you are going to sell via FB/IG but there are still PayPal fees involved and now that we are in a buyers market people are not willing to pay the same price that they'd pay on eBay - everyone wants a built in ~10% discount. 

This doesn't even factor in the unfavorable tax rates on collectibles (or running a small business if that's how you operate) vs passive income from the stock market. 

Yup, the ebay sales taxes, depending on your state, are a good motivation to buy and sell in cash at shows. It's 1992 again! The thing is, are most people trying to pay electronically at shows now? I almost never did that unless I flat out ran out of cash. Not that I would ever not report the sales tax or the income or any of those things, of course, I'm talking about other people.

Good stuff. In the old days I'd be buying a stack, but I promised my wife....

On 5/6/2024 at 9:22 AM, sd2416 said:

September will be 20 for me as well.  

I am supposedly in december, but I am pretty sure I had another board name here under a different account for a year or two and primarily lurked and forgot my password because I definitely would occasionally log in from my old job and I left there in May 2004. I knew a lot of people here from the ebay chat groups already.

On 5/5/2024 at 5:18 PM, Topnotchman said:

The ground advantage I’m sure is done by the post office themselves . But large amounts of express and priority have been done by Fed Ex for decades.  Ups just got the new contract starting in September.  Maybe it’s fed ex who is prioritizing with their own clients now that their long term PO deal is ending. 
 

My understanding is that by law they don't allow the USPS to have planes so they have to use Fedex, UPS's fleet

congrats. or maybe not.

On 5/3/2024 at 11:36 AM, blazingbob said:

And while I'm all about the "live" experience I am becoming more and more concerned with backing tracks and are they really singing?

If you can't sing anymore don't play live..

 

I am pretty excited that I just got tickets to see one of my favorite Bands ... Clutch ... in Brooklyn and the tickets were "only" $50 + $14.50 service charge. Slightly less thrilled that they are co-headlining with another band (although listening to them my wife might life them more than Clutch). Fu Manchu too (I like them but some of the guitar solos go on too long). With that said, it is general admission and I am not 100% clear whether there are actually any seats, so I hope my achilles is feeling better by next September if I am standing the whole show. The last time I did a standing show was pre-achilles rupture and it was rough for this old man. Now I just need to convince my wife to come with me as I don't know anyone else local who listens to them. Anyway, I saw some big shows in college and then was practically 30 years until I went to another one (getting let in to see Yes and Meatloaf at the Beacon for the manager's free seats doesn't count), I kind of wish I had seen more when I was young (and tickets were $12, although that was when I lived in Houston)