FSF

2 minutes ago, oakman29 said:

Just relax mr. FSF . the little tag above your avatar is just for fun. Does it really bother you that much? So much so that you need to make a long drawn out thread over it? There are worse things in this world.

No, it doesn't bother me that much but I'd clearly rather it not be there.  But let's be fair. I'm not the one drawing it out and I never expected that it would garner more that a few replies.  Apart from my OP, I only responded to a question by the administrator, and my last post, while the thread was atop the first page.

4 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Correct.

The show selling out is entirely what is annoying the average collector or attendee.

99% (exaggeration, I know but you get what I mean) of the people buying tickets don't buy / collect comics and this is why dealers are dropping out or reducing booth sizes.

 

VC, not that I'm trying to drag out a debate from another thread, but this is what I don't get about the things you post sometimes that seem to me entirely contradictory to one another.  I DO get what you mean. If 99%, or even 90% or 75% of the people going to a place like Comic Con "don't buy / collect comics", you're making MY point about the obliviousness of the wider public who truly don't have any clue, nor care anything about comics.

1 hour ago, kav said:

I've experienced a 3.0 sold to an LCS, become a 6.0, once it hit their wall....

When buying it they moan about how bad it is but once it hits the wall-

True that.  And all the more reason that "investing" in comics is silly because when the exact same dealer sells the exact same book as VF but buys is as an F at best, hard to garner these hypothetical hindsight returns everyone is talking about.  And while CGC has done a great job of mitigating many of these issues.  They'll never be able to eliminate

"This is high end for the grade" or "This is a premium example" when selling and then when buying back: "It's okay" or "It's got X problem here and Y problem there"

It's been going on in coins for decades and cards are no different.  Once again, human nature I suppose. 

Just now, VintageComics said:

Thank you for making my point after disagreeing with me about it for days.

I've held the exact same stance since my first post in this thread.  In fact, I'm not sure what you're interpreting as "making your point" but I'm basically doubling down with my last post that comics are NOT in the minds of the non-collecting public anywhere near to the extent you seem to think so.

Just now, VintageComics said:

But you are selectively choosing your apples and oranges.

Anyhow, not going to go in circles with you. I disagree and I believe that the general public now knows that collectibles have value (and I would lump most mainstream collectibles in this including cards, cars, comics, etc) and I'll leave it at that.

 

 

They've known collectibles had value way before comics had any real value.  It wasn't comics that brought it to the fore and when they think of "collectibles", hardly anyone is thinking comic book as the first thing of real value IMO.  Sure antique cars, or certainly "rare" coins, and even Beatles and Elvis memorabilia permeate their thoughts.

9 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

'Need' is a relative thing.

Most people might 'need' an iPhone more than an FF #52 but very few people really need the latest iPhone.

Now if you told everyone in the room that the FF #52 was a 9.6 and worth $20K, they'd 'need' that more than the iPhone.

 

But I think the comment is valid because it proves, if one believes it as I do, the obliviousness of the general public as to just how expensive some comics could be.  Sure they have some vague notion that "some" comics could be worth a lot of money but that's really as far as it goes with the vast majority of the non-collecting/never collected public.

VintageComics, that hurts bro.  Here I am trying to make the world a better place and I'm getting ridiculed and attacked from all sides and now your piling on.  Oh, the humanity!

16 minutes ago, skypinkblu said:

I didn't say it was my only expense. You can add insurance, water, heat, a/c, food, nails, SHOES;) etc, etc;) I was just saying I paid off my mortgage and don't have that expense as an example, but thanks for mentioning that just in case I didn't have any;) .

I'm in the same boat and right next to San Jose, which is very weird reading this thread.  The only reason I mentioned the insurance is because all that other stuff are things even renters incur, though on rare occasions some or all utilities are picked up by landlord but even then, it's really just a pass through cost that the renter pays.

The reason that I'm including pre-certified grades is that I am absolutely convinced based on my experiences in the 1980s that pre-CGC grading on average was way inferior to CGC grading.  It's human nature I suppose when selling to give yourself the benefit of the higher grade.  And since the thread has been filled with people comparing theoretical purchases of grades for books decades before the advent of comic third party grading is why I'm mentioning that aspect.  Circulated low grade coins have held up decently though hardly anything to brag about.  However, even that has to be qualified for nice relatively problem free examples, which there never was that much of and there isn't today. You can get the dreck problem coins all day long for a song at shows.

19 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Depends what you're referring to, and the time period in question.

Without a doubt, 99% of all such coins are worth more, adjusted for inflation, than they were in 1978. Much more. But, since certification didn't functionally exist in 1978 (it did...sorta), then it required buyers to have a good eye and an ability to grade.

30 years ago, however, was the height of the Census Bubble, so yes, the vast majority of common high grade coins are worth less, and have never recovered...but that was a function of the Census Bubble, not the wider economy. 

Same thing happened to comics.

I agree that the census bubble had a lot to do with that.  But by no means is that the only factor.  Prior to PCGS/NGC, raw MS65 Morgans, Walkers, etc. which comprised a huge portion of the then "investment grade rare coins" were selling for several hundred dollars in the preceding 6-8 years (though the numbers vary depending on exactly when).  Also, I'm sure we can agree those were inferior grades compared to certification.  Of course they don't grade as tight as they did in the late 1980s, which is an entirely different matter.  Also, an entire series like Barbers, in all denoms, are less then they were back when and are going begging for collectors today.  We're talking about a series that legitimately is pretty scarce/rare but affordable and yet they can't really find a collecting audience aside from the obligatory type collectors.

I apparently did not get this offer.

Serenity now.  Serenity now. SERENITY NOOOOOWWWWW!!!!!

First off, we can selectively choose all sorts of individual stocks that had astounding returns over whatever period of time we want to play with.  The bottom line is, someone who knows nothing about stocks can dump their money into a widely diversified ETF and call it a day and the returns should easily outpace even the best of most all comic returns (and I think ALL grail comics because they don't have the MAIN and really ONLY advantage of starting from such a low point anymore), let alone the entire comic market which will not yield any return in my opinion and return a huge negative.

Two, everyone is looking back in hindsight to prove their comic "investment" returns but we all know that if even 1 measly percent kept their Action 1s or AF15s or FF1s in VF+ condition, the values would be a fraction of what they are today.  Comics, like cards and coins, really only go through one or maybe two major secular spikes.  IMO, that happened with the 1980s/90s and then the first several years of CGC.  Since then, the returns on a total basis (even excluding 99% which are dreck) have not been by any means that great.

Do you folks realize that the vast majority of certified "investment" grade coins are worth LESS than they were over 30 and in many cases 40 years ago.  I'm talking in NOMINAL dollars at that.  Chew on that for a bit and try convince yourself why comics are so special.

Also, I'm not sure who posted that real estate taxes are the only expense they have but I seriously hope they just forgot to mention insurance.

41 minutes ago, PunisherPunisherPunisher said:

Accept it

 

I have.  Many, many times.  Which is why the thread.

9 minutes ago, Robot Man said:

Anybody have a link to the ticket sale? Seems a little confusing with two promoters promoting the same show.

I believe the cutoff was 6/15 and now you have to go to the door to buy a ticket.  A limited amount will supposedly be available. 

Is anyone else repeatedly getting asked to accept the new CGC terms?  It seems as if every time I come to the site the past few weeks it's asking me to click the "I accept" button.  Help!!!

CGC, for the record, I now and forever yield to your terms of use and service.

4 minutes ago, ExNihilo said:

I wouldn't go so far as to say that it will become virtually non-existent.  In fact, I would argue that over time as digital media gains popularity and printed comics begin to dwindle, you might actually see an increase in value to major keys.

I would buy that notion if I thought that there were a lot of young folks subscribing.  Maybe there are and I'm just not aware.  They certainly aren't buying at the brick and mortars.

20 minutes ago, kav said:

I'm an average Joe about cars and would swallow that figure without hesitation.  

I never suggested that everyone would have that reaction.  In fact, I would think it would be a minority.  But where comics are concerned, it would be virtually nil in terms of their knowledge or care.

30 minutes ago, kav said:

I disagree with this based on my experience of non collectors finding a stack of comics and being sure they have a gold mine.  Average Joe thinks comics are valuable-the hard part is convincing them that not all comics, including the ones they are holding, are not.

I'm not saying that the public thinks that comics are worthless, I'm suggesting they have no interest and are clueless as your post would suggest.

For example, if you were a precious metals dealer, and you told an average Joe that gold was $50 an ounce, many of them (who don't even follow the price at all) would have some awareness that the figure is probably too low and would look up your comments with skepticism. Conversely, if you told them that it was $50,000 an ounce, the same skepticism would apply.  Because they have a lot of snippets of experience in their lives suggesting that doesn't sound right. If you were  an antique car dealer and try to tell your average Joe that a Mercedes Gull Wing costs about $50K-$100K, many would say you are way too low.  If you were a sports memorabilia dealer and told them that a Babe Ruth autographed ball was about $500, once again, many would not believe you, even though they don't specifically know better.  Of if you were an art dealer and try to tell someone that the Mona Lisa or Starry Night would cost about $10 million at auction, many would know that the figure is ridiculously low.

If you told them that you were a comic dealer and that Amazing Fantasy 15 was the first appearance of Spider-Man, and that in the very nice shape of VF/NM, they go for about $10K, most all would say, "Oh, okay".  They would very likely take you at your word because they rarely come across comics from a collecting/investing/reading perspective.  If you told them that it was $10 million, they would equally believe you, because they have no clue and don't care one bit. And apart from the occasional very infrequent auction sale that gets reported (like Action 1 and even AF15 specifically), which few people see or pay attention to or remember if they did, they know nothing or hear nothing in their daily lives about what that sort of thing would go for.  Unlike gold, which every understands on some level, or cars which every has experience with, or art which reports huge sales regularly, or sports which people interact with on some level (kids playing, tons of watching, etc.). 

Comics are just not of ANY interest to people outside of those who collect or have collected in the past.  That pretty much encompasses the entire market for who will buy collectible comics.  And that pool will eventually decrease over time to the point where it is virtually non-existent.

7 hours ago, dena said:

We've been talking about changing those titles. I'm open to hear your suggestions if you want to post them here.

If you're taking a poll, nothing would be my preference.  I get the label of "Member" or "Veteran" or whatever.  But the comments above the avatar seem a bit cheesy.  Not trying to rock the boat and not really that big of a deal at the end of the day.

Not exactly what I wanted to hear but I appreciate the info.

I'm referring to the thing about selling my car for comics.  What a silly and random thing to be noted without any intent on my part.  How do I get rid of it???

14 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

 

The run up on comics related to movies happens in much the same way a stock runs up on favorable news.

 

BTW, this comment is not correct at all.  It's not the "news" that drives the price up in stocks but the implications of that news.  Favorable news for a public company means that future earnings are going to be higher than originally anticipated.  It's entirely money based so there is a good rationale for the increase.  Comics don't offer earnings or dividends.  You're owning an asset that merely exists.  It literally is not any different than beanie babies or pet rocks.  It's value ONLY lies in the faith that someone down the road will want to own it by paying a considerable amount of money.  I'm stating that eventually, hardly anyone will care about 99.999999% of comic books enough to pay for them, above perhaps a very nominal amount.  That day won't be tomorrow, next week or next year, but I'm confident I'll likely live to see that day.

5 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

I'm not saying that everyone knows about comic books.

Conversations generally go like this:

"Oh, and what do you do for a living?"

I'm a vintage comic book dealer."

And then the conversation morphs into various things, but many are aware of how popular they are and how 'old comics' are valuable.

They may not know the details (just like they'd have no idea how to value a Picasso or even recognize one) but they do know that there is a market for them.

 

The asset bubble is a combination of two things IMO.

1) cheap money and nowhere to park it

2) awareness of collectibles as being a place to park your money

The movies have increased awareness. Investors have used that awareness to invest in it.

The run up on comics related to movies happens in much the same way a stock runs up on favorable news.

Oh, Apple is coming out with an amazing new phone that will help you go to the bathroom? Hungry investors pour money into the company expecting it to make them money.

 

I think people are generally aware that some small segment of the population (and often erroneously in their minds children) are spending money on comic books.  And I'll buy the notion that some of the random people you may speak with (which are probably are a handful at most over the course of a year) are making assumptions about comic books based on the fact that they see all of this blockbuster films out there and may just assume all the while just making small talk and not really caring.  Not knowing any of the details, as you suggest is primarily the main problem in my opinion.  They have vague notions at best.  I still believe your judgement is biased based on the enormous amount of time and interactions that you have with collectors and dealers.  Not only is it your profession, but consider all of the time you spend on this forum.  That is an entirely different perspective than the vast majority of Americans who don't know or care about comic books and never will.

I agree with your #1.  But #2 would only matter if it were primarily new collectors that were buying up all of these books.  I don't believe that is the primary market by any stretch of the imagination.  I think that group, if anything, came in on the CGC wave and not because of the movies.

51 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

I've never received a negative reception from telling someone I am a comic book dealer, except from one of my daughters when I switched over from my other day job. She did understand the model and worried that I wouldn't be able to pay the bills. She was young at the time and it's pretty funny now, looking back.

I travel for a living and meet 1000's of new people every year. They general trend has been that they know comics are huge (again, based on the movies) and almost always follow with some story about how they either wish their mom didn't throw out their comics when they were younger, or that they own some comics now too and ask me about their value.

Everyone that owns 'old' comics think they are going to be rich because of it. Old being comics from the 1990's.

 

I travel plenty every year and for reasons NOT related to comic books.  No one has EVER brought up comics nor have I EVER overhead such a conversation.  You're telling me you meet thousands of people (not at Cons or anything related to comics)?  I don't think movies have done all that much for awareness of books.  Apart from certain first appearances based on characters that are announced which have driven up those particular issues.  And the ramp up seems to be entirely from the existing collector base and dealer speculation.  If the movies were impacting the books, why is it that the books seem to run up prior to the hundred million of viewers who are seeing these movies and not afterward.  The tiniest tiniest fraction of that viewership base getting into comics would drive the books to insane levels.  It's NOT happening.  In fact, after the dust settles, it appears that these books usually seem to go down after the movies come out, when the people have actually seen the movies.

I'm very confident that the current run up (which has happened concurrently with sport cards) is occurring because of two reasons: (1) the economic asset bubble that has provided so much liquidity to a lot of people and they're just looking to spend money because they have it, (2) the children who collected during the 1970s to 1990s are in their prime earning years and are looking to buy back their childhoods.  I see no convincing evidence that the movies are having an effect on comic collecting as a whole, other than once again driving up specific issues with the already existing collectors and dealers.  Why are new issues runs so low? Why aren't kids buying them them when I see plenty of kids/teens/young adults at all of these movies but never see the likes of them in any of the LCSs?

Vintage Comics, the more I think about your perspective versus mine, I think it's clearly colored by what we each do for a living.  I don't know if it's your full time job, but you obviously earn some living, and apparently a pretty decent one, from being entrenched in the comic world.  As such, you spend a lot of your time buying and selling comic books, talking and dealing with comic people all the time.

I work for various corporations.  As a consultant, my experiences are not limited to any one company.  I have up to a dozen clients at any time and those rotate in and out.  And in that corporate world, what we're talking about here may as well be Latin cause they wouldn't have a clue.