RockMyAmadeus

That's just silly. A&A #0 in 9.8 isn't rare by any means. That's a record by 70%.

Wanna know what is, by far, the rarest gold 9.8? Eternal Warrior #1 flat. A mere 14 on the census, and we have proven that those numbers include errors by CGC mixing the two up. The A&A #0 Gold is tough, for sure...but the EW #1 flat gold is the toughest.

He means November 20th.

November 18th...? Yer killin' me!

It's a TRAP!

Except his kids, who wanted to throw them out.

You sold a gold version for $3? I recently sold a NM gold copy for $99! $3 is about right for the regular version. They left the cover price in the gold logo box by mistake, none of the other Valiant gold books had a cover price. ...except for EW #1 flat, which led to the mistake of selling it as a second print on the west coast, which led to the embossed.

And, to those who believe that collectors prefer their books, high grade or not, in slabs...that's just not true. A slab represents a barrier to my ability to enjoy the item as it was originally made, whether it's a coin, a card, a comic, a toy, whatever. There is nothing in the collecting experience that compares with being able to hold, in your hands, a fresh, bright, clean, unworn example, exactly as it was made however many decades ago. It's a total thrill. It's a pretty heavenly experience, and something a lot of the "younger" (I'm only 42!) crowd is missing out on, which is a shame.

The oldest Overstreet I have is the 18th edition, 1988-1989. AF15 is listed in Mint for $1500. The market report listed a copy in NM selling for $2,200. Thanks! That's the one! I knew it was somewhere in that range. Adjust the "2.5x guide" number to approx. $3750, so the 1993 sale changes to 10 times that price, which still handily beats the 1993-2015 period. ....I was working Part Time in a LCS at the time.... and there was a lot of discussion about that book and those auctions. Most of us thought that Auctions were never going to amount to much of the market share.... what with comics requiring a personal inspection. We thought the price was insane and was never going to be more than an outlier. You could still pick up a real decent fixer upper Home for that kind of money. Boy were we wrong. GOD BLESS.... -jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u The important lesson, here, that the "AF #15 will NEVER go down in value!" crowd is not considering is that there has been a quite significant slowdown in the rate of increase of the value of books like AF #15, FF #1, and others. The same White Mountain FF #1 sold for $27,600 in that 1993 Sotheby's auction, also a record. In 2010, that book sold for $143k, and then in 2012 for $203k (not a bad return)...but then, again, in 2013 for $191k...a loss. So, not only is it not true that AF #15 has never gone down in value (it has, most significantly from 1983-1985, and then again from 1998-2001) as some claim, but it has slowed down, and isn't at all likely to continue the same rate of return that it had from 1962-1999, prior to CGC. Aside from selling "shares" in books like this (and this has been tried for decades, and has generally failed every single time...maybe next time will be different....) there's no way for anyone except the wealthy to afford a high grade copy, and then what? Maybe the White Mountain is worth $400k today. Maybe it's worth $250k. Is it going to be worth 10 times its price by 2025, as it was from 1962 to 1965? Or from 1970 to 1976? Or from 1988 to 1993? It took 22 years for the book to, at least on paper, increase another 10 fold...but that only applies to the WM AF #15, which was a record price at the time. Were other copies a better or worse investment? Maybe, maybe not. Anyhoo, that gets us a bit off track from extant copies, but it is related, and does raise some interesting points. But, then, I could talk about comic book history for hours.

Quick correction: I neglected the years between 1962 and 1970, in which AF #15 experienced its greatest valuation runup.....from 12 cents in 1962 ro $16 in 1970...a leap of 133 times its initial cover price. And then, of course, the 70's were no slouch either. AF #15, along with FF #1, burned bright for 20 years, and was unstoppable until the 1983-1985 Silver Age drawback, which was significant.

The oldest Overstreet I have is the 18th edition, 1988-1989. AF15 is listed in Mint for $1500. The market report listed a copy in NM selling for $2,200. Thanks! That's the one! I knew it was somewhere in that range. Adjust the "2.5x guide" number to approx. $3750, so the 1993 sale changes to 10 times that price, which still handily beats the 1993-2015 period.

"Collectable" - adjective meaning "capable or worthy of being collected." "Collectible" - noun, meaning "something that is collected." I'm RICH!

You don't want to know how many copies of Shadowman #8 I have. I hope that book takes off. It'll make up for me giving away my New Mutants #98s for so little.

Relative to what? What eras are we talking about? Comics from the 1930's and 40's? Cards from the 10's and 20's? Books from the 1800's? Because by the 1960's, virtually every baseball card that exists, exists in substantial numbers. You need to go back to the early 40's to find that not true. Most books from the 20th century, especially popular books, are extant in large numbers relative to their initial printings. It's entirely relative to what era you're referring to. Vague generalities don't work.

To add to this: in 1987, the great Silver Age vacuum began. At that time, there began a nationwide buying spree on Silver Age, and of course, high grade keys were sucked out the fastest, but by 1990, most SA above Fi/VF had essentially evaporated from the market, not to return for a decade or more. I entered the comics market in 1989. Throughout the 90's, I didn't believe there were any actual NM copies of 1960's or earlier books in existence, with some exceptions (like the Church collection), simply because I never, ever saw them. What I didn't know was that they were hidden away, and not for sale. The White Mountain AF #15 was one of the very rare exceptions, when it was auctioned in 1993 at Sotheby's by Jerry Wiest, for a hammer of $39,100. In fact, the years from 1987-1994 were, by far, the most significant in the valuation history of AF #15 (among many others.) In that 7 year period, the value of the book increased 10-20 fold, or more, depending on the copy. In 1988, the White Mountain sold for 2.5x OPG (according to Matt Nelson) which, at the time, was $1200 (someone please correct me if I have that wrong; I don't have my 1988 copy handy at the moment.) So, that particular copy sold for $3000, and within 7 years, sold for $39.100, or 13 times its 1988 value. In the ensuing 10 years, the value of that copy only increased 4 times, from $39k to $150k. In fact...when it was sold again less than a year later, it was sold at a loss...$126k. Now, clearly the book is worth substantially more than that at this point, as a non-ped 9.4 sold for $325k in 2011...but the lesson is clear: in the 22 years since 1993, the book STILL has not increased in value at the same rate as it did between 1988, when it was first brought to market, and 1993. For that rate to be mirrored, the book would have to sell for north of $500,000, and the market doesn't support that (?) at this time. Still...it would be 22 years, vs. 7. But back to the SA market in general. With the advent of CGC, there was a wondrous revelation made to me about the fact that ultra high grade copies of these books DID exist, and they always had...they'd just been locked up in inventories and collections until more favorable conditions existed. That was the key to me learning about the realities of the market: that what is for sale at any given time, and what has been slabbed since 2000, is the tip of the tip of the iceberg of what actually exists. The census represents a mere fraction, and a tiny one at that, of what exists, and comparisons to modern "manufactured collectible" variants completely fail. Meanwhile, the lessons of the late 80's in the coin slabbed market taught me much about the census, and its unreliability as an indicator of what actually exists. For example: there are 238,326 1881-S Morgan Dollars slabbed by NGC and on their census. But, because we know that the US Treasury Dept had several thousand bags (at 1,000 coins per bag) in storage in the early 1960's, we know that at least 5 million, and possibly as much as 8-9 million, of the original mintage of 12,760,000 examples still exist, with most being in mint state. This is a coin that was made over 130 years ago, and these numbers were estimated long before slabbing existed. Yet, only 238k examples have been slabbed, and that over 28 years of slabbing, twice as long as CGC has been around! If we were to consider that the census represents a significant amount of extant coins, we might conclude there are only 300-600k examples left, based on the 238k census number. Of course, we know that's not true, and the vast, vast majority remain unslabbed. Comparable to AF #15? No, of course not. It's only used to illustrate the problem with relying on the census for anything but the most broad indications of what exists, and that we must rely on other, more concrete information when coming up with an estimate of extant examples of anything.

Fixed, just a touch.

This. Again, this. Let me repeat, because everyone else is being very nice about it: "to think there are only hundreds out there not slabbed, simply cannot be." As a VERY interesting aside, there has sprung up, since the advent of CGC, a tendency among "new" collectors/buyers/investors/whatevers to view things only within the context of CGC and slabbing. This, naturally, is a grave mistake. Jay...this is not the first time you have been told this (Sandman #8 variant), but you still refuse to believe it. People with decades of experience are telling you the same things, from different perspectives, and you're still refusing to listen. My recommendation to those who view things this way: put down the keyboard, and pick up the reading glasses. Read, read, read. Read everything you can get your hands on. It won't make up for direct experience, but it is as good as you can get. Read what people write on these boards (WITHOUT responding, other than asking questions.) Read CBG. Read everything Overstreet has printed. Read Amazing Heroes. Read any and all of the fanzines you can get your hands on. Read Chuck's Tales from the Database. Read the Comics Journal. Go to a convention, grab a chair, and sit and listen to John Verzyl. He is an absolute treasure. Absolute treasure. Talk to Gary Colabuono. Talk to Vincent Zurzolo. That's the best advice you can get.

I'm RICH!

Back in, after many years out.

If you cannot have a discussion without making it personal, as you have done here, it is definitely best if you find other people with which to interact. Obviously, I don't agree with any of your analysis, either of AF #15, or your opinions about me. I have addressed your points head-on, with much fact and sound reason. You have not presented a single example of where you believe I have done the things you've said; you've only made vague, impressive sounding accusations, or just made things up out of whole cloth (example: "your point is silly", which I never said.) Where factual data has been called for, I have provided it, in great detail (as many others here can attest), so accusations like that ring fairly hollow. Others have echoed...very politely, I might add, considering how substantially naive and ill-informed your arguments have been...what I have said. You can take it or leave it, but once you start making it personal, you have, sadly, crossed a line where I will no longer go. I will not insult you, as you have done me, because, as I said before, nothing is to be gained from it. As far as "people" not giving a *spoon* about what I think...as have dozens, if not hundreds before you, I will tell you the same thing: you don't speak for anyone but yourself. It is presumptuous...and, if I'm being frankly honest, pretty indicative...to imagine you speak for others. You don't. I speak for me, you speak for you, and everyone else speaks for themselves. To suggest that you know what "people" think is a pretty clearcut example of the behavior of which you accuse me. Isn't that ever the case...? It is a truism that those who cannot discuss the merits, discuss the people. That most likely remains true here as well. So, I bid you adieu, with no ill-will on my part, and wish you the best of luck in your future endeavors on the board.

I write, currently, from the Grand Canyon state, where, within a month, temperatures will top 100....and will stay that way from May until November. What part of "extreme heat" = good conditions for preservation? Cool (but not too cold.) Dry (but not too dry.) Consistent temperatures (no wild swings either way.) Those are the ideal conditions for preserving paper.

I agree. Abolsute non-sense is the worst kind of all, and of that I am abolsutely certain. But...what do you mean by "unearthed"? Do you mean copies owned by people who don't know what they have...? If so, I agree with your numbers. But do you mean copies owned by people who do? Then, I'd have to disagree.

Even the census is suspect; it can only ever tell us the upper limit of slabbed copies; it's likely that no single book with a population on the census over 100 exactly represents the number of copies subbed. With resubs, those numbers get skewed really fast. Hell, I've got 40 or so labels sitting around that I have no intention of ever turning in. Those books will always be misrepresented on the census.

I understand that is likely true. However, without proof it is just speculation and not proven valid. Other data that has been provided that suggests otherwise. :shrug: If someone cannot support a claim with data or evidence, then they need to be prepared when people challenge it and ultimately refute legitimacy. I am trying my best not to be rude. Hopefully I am not offending anyone. You're not offending me although based on what I've seen of your posting history, I think you take this stuff way too seriously. It's a comic book message board not a debating class. However, that's neither here nor there. Data that confirms that most sales of AF 15 are slabbed copies is not proof of how many raw copies are out there still locked up in personal collections. It's only proof of how many slabbed copies have been sold. I am passionate, I will give you that. Sometimes it is good, other times not so much. Kinda wired this way though. I am linking market sales to market inventory, I don't think that is a long stretch. However, I understand where your challenge is coming from - I just disagree because I feel it is more than a causal link. On both sides of the argument, it's interesting speculation but that's all it is really and it's fine to disagree. Data of slabbed sales only proves sales of slabbed copies. It says absolutely nothing about the number of existing raw copies, however many that may be. Yup. I will add this: not all data is hard data; observation and experience also counts. Obviously, they aren't as weighty as actual data, but that doesn't mean they are meaningless, either. Let's consider Roy. Not to kiss Roy's leather-clad posterior, but Roy has done high grade Silver and Gold for years. He knows that market, I have, myself, observed Roy in action over many years now, in multiple venues, over a long period of time. I even helped him at his SDCC booth in 2011, and got a chance to watch him up close. Therefore, his observations about that market are going to carry a lot more weight than those who aren't as connected to it, even if he doesn't provide a stitch of actual data to support his statements. Likewise, if I want to know about Walked Dead Sig Series books, I talk to Branget. I don't think there is anyone who is as keyed into the WD market as Branget. Maybe Pastaroni, but, eh, he's Pastaroni. So, when dealers who have been in this market for a very, very long time say "this is my experience and my observation, and I think X amount of copies exist"...that opinion carries real weight, certainly against other opinions that demonstrate a shortsightedness about the market, like referencing sales of slabbed copies as a valid means of extrapolating total copies extant. That may not sit very well with some, but disillusionment is a good thing: it means you don't believe in illusions anymore.

Ok. :shrug: Here is my point of the existance of multiple hoarders: Either these people don't know what they have (unlikely given that they hoarded them - people don't collect specific things that they know nothing about), don't care because they are Scrooge McDuck (moderately likely, but very very very small population) or they truly don't exist in abundance and few select real individuals have been created into an urban legend that drives many of these discussions into even greater levels of speculation (highly likely). Your conclusions ignore many of the realities of the comic book market. I do not know if you draw them because you don't understand the market, or you just don't like the realities thereof, but they ignore market realities nonetheless. Not all collectors think or act with logic. My friend that has 60 copies had more. I've managed to buy some from him over the years. Many boardies will remember the 8.0 sc22 I sold years ago that went on to be pressed to a 9.0. Came from this collector. One of my 8.0 af15 (that later pressed to 8.5) came from this collector. But that was more of a favor to me that he sold. He has no desire to sell, but admittedly at current prices he doesn't buy many these days. He is drunkenly wealthy. He likes accumulating and hoarding and has for 40 years. The dealer/semi-collector in cal I've seen his box of raw af15 (he showed me and select others at sdcc a few years ago). He still buys for "retirement". There are many dealers sitting on lots of copies. And there are many collectors also sitting on lots of copies. No urban myth. Just a reality that some know about and that others can't seem to wrap their heads around. Just nature of the beast. Yup, part deux.