RockMyAmadeus

I understand that is likely true. However, without proof it is just speculation and not proven valid. Other data that has been provided that suggests otherwise. :shrug: If someone cannot support a claim with data or evidence, then they need to be prepared when people challenge it and ultimately refute legitimacy. I am trying my best not to be rude. Hopefully I am not offending anyone. You're not offending me although based on what I've seen of your posting history, I think you take this stuff way too seriously. It's a comic book message board not a debating class. However, that's neither here nor there. Data that confirms that most sales of AF 15 are slabbed copies is not proof of how many raw copies are out there still locked up in personal collections. It's only proof of how many slabbed copies have been sold. I am passionate, I will give you that. Sometimes it is good, other times not so much. Kinda wired this way though. I am linking market sales to market inventory, I don't think that is a long stretch. However, I understand where your challenge is coming from - I just disagree because I feel it is more than a causal link. On both sides of the argument, it's interesting speculation but that's all it is really and it's fine to disagree. Data of slabbed sales only proves sales of slabbed copies. It says absolutely nothing about the number of existing raw copies, however many that may be. Yup.

Indeed...if the number isn't thousands....

You are making leaps in logic to try to draw a conclusion you predetermined. You then proceed to do the same thing in reply... In real terms? What is "very few"? It's easy to use vague terms that can then be walked back at a later date. Put some meat to your statements by quantifying them. According to what statistics? How do you know this? What evidence do you have of this? How many is "very few"? 1% of the collecting world? .1%? .01%? No, people BELIEVE it to be true based on experience, observation, and actual data. What possible gain does anyone have from "wanting" be believe that the total extant number of copies of AF #15 is higher than it actually is...? Is this discussion going to crash the market? Are people going to read this thread and think "oh, man, I didn't know how common this book really is! Pass!" It's silliness. We have multiple data points: general print run, general sales information, the history of the book specifically, the history of the hobby in the historical context of the book, habits of buyers and collectors and dealers over the past 50 years... ..."not data"...?

Ok. :shrug: Here is my point of the existance of multiple hoarders: Either these people don't know what they have (unlikely given that they hoarded them - people don't collect specific things that they know nothing about), don't care because they are Scrooge McDuck (moderately likely, but very very very small population) or they truly don't exist in abundance and few select real individuals have been created into an urban legend that drives many of these discussions into even greater levels of speculation (highly likely). Your conclusions ignore many of the realities of the comic book market. I do not know if you draw them because you don't understand the market, or you just don't like the realities thereof, but they ignore market realities nonetheless.

Sure and to some people turning purple and having a monkey as their butler is normal. What I am saying is that it isn't a something that is pervasive throughout the population. You are using an extremely small sample size to make a point, it isn't a productive example. You are still missing the point. How do you know? How do you prove such a claim? This is basic psychology, people's motivations are directly tied to improving and furthering their well-being. In modern society money is a base requirement to secure and further well-being; therefore, money is important. If it wasn't society wouldn't accept spending a large part of their life at work to earn it - many times sacrificing their health and ironically their well-being. Sure I used sarcasm to make a point with my original statement, but that doesn't make it less true. People care about money. The answer is, you don't know, and have no way to prove such a claim. You don't know if those who paid 10-50 cents for it care that it is "worth thousands", in the context of this discussion (that is, potential saleability.) To respond with "well, obviously everyone cares about money!" is much too broad, far too simplistic, and has no relevance to this discussion. We are talking specifically about AF #15, not the general necessity of money in life. Obviously, that wasn't the question asked. In future, if you would please preserve pertinent quotes, I would appreciate it. I have restored the important part of the original quote, for clarity. That isn't an explanation, it is a typical non-responsive and condescending answer from you. Please clarify your statements when people ask for it. There is no condescension involved; if you believe there is, you are reading what isn't there. I have explained it as clearly as I can: it's all about perspective. Please do refrain from making personal comments like "typical." It is unnecessarily combative, and leads to nothing positive. I am not the topic of discussion, so please don't discuss me. How anyone discusses things is not relevant, and frequently leads to completely unnecessary conflict. Let's stick to the topic. I do you the courtesy of not discussing you and how I perceive you communicate; please extend me the same courtesy. If you are dissatisfied with the way I dialogue, please don't feel any obligation to continue. There are many hundreds of other people on these boards to interact with.

This isn't an old thread...it's just quiet from time to time.

Sure - however people who have hundreds of millions make up an infinitesimally small portion of the population. Are you suggesting that all these known hoarders of AF 15 are hundred millionaires? Seems statistically unlikely. No. I'm suggesting that, to certain people, having a million dollars worth of books means nothing. The conclusion you are drawing cannot be drawn from my statement. How do you know? How do you prove such a claim? Great, what is your point? I'll explain it again: it's all about perspective.

Now you're starting to come around. Since 1965 was the year that folks really started to buy multiple copies for the first time, it's not out of the realm of possible that books only 3 years old...especially Spidey...would have been saved more than usual. Sure, many, many thousands were thrown out...but sales figures for that last issue HAD to be very good for Goodman to allow Spidey to return (they were, after all, about to cancel Hulk), so the odds are better that the book was saved in better numbers than, say, FF #6 or Suspense #32. We know why GA books are so scarce: they were recycled by the millions in WWII. But by the 60's, that was no longer relevant, and Spidey was a great success very near the beginning (even if Goodman thought the character was stupid.) I think 15-30k is somewhere in the ballpark. Maybe towards the lower end, but still not too bad.

Famous last words. If Af 15's go down then the hobby is obviously dead as well. Speaking of "long lines", there are, as I type, 25 copies of Fantasy #15, in various flavors, on eBay alone. If there were people in line to buy them, why would so many copies be available for sale? That there are lots of people who would pay "for the right price" or "if they had the money", but that doesn't really count, does it...? I would buy one for the right price. Am I "in line" to buy one? No. There are long lines for Fantastic Comics #3. There are plenty of people in line for a copy of that book....any copy. And there have been times...hard though it may seem...that even the "third most important comic" has gone down in demand, and therefore value. The ones on eBay are only Buy it Nows with well over market value asking prices. Just because there is a line to buy them doesn't mean people who have 1% of a brain are going pay 5.0 money for a 2.5 copy. Dealers can't keep them in stock. They come in and sell very quickly. That illustrates the point. Price IS a factor that is preventing these "long lines" of people from buying one. If the price was ever spiraling upwards, what is "5.0 money" today would be 2.5 money in time, right...? The point, of course, is that there IS price resistance, which means the people lining up to buy them aren't willing to do so "at any price", which would tell you isn't *as* desirable as some may believe. And who are the people buying them? Are they people who want them because they want them? Are they people who want them because they believe they are good investments? Are they people looking to flip them? I would like one for myself, but they are far beyond what I think is reasonable to pay, in any grade. If one comes along that is substantially under current market, obviously I'm going to buy it....but not to keep. And I am part of that "base of demand" which will keep the value of an item above a certain level...but that base is always changing, and never as solid as one might think. Well I assume the people in line waiting for one aren't going to pay 15K for a CGC 2.0. Sure...now. They will if they have no other choice, or they will drop out of line. That's how the market works. Common sense? What does "common sense" have to do with the market? When you were in grade school, people were paying $3,000 for high grade copies. If you had said that high grade copies would sell for $100,000+ in 20 years, they would have laughed, and told you "a little common sense here, dude." Sure....now. There's nothing that will guarantee that will be true in the future. I am not hoping for anything like that. I don't need one, and have never really desired one. There are a hell of a lot more that I can get for my money that I would enjoy much, much more (a #100-#200 run of Detective Comics, for example.) But that doesn't mean that prices cannot, and will not, come down. The demand far, far outstrips supply, true...but the supply is not insubstantial, by any means. I can only go on what evidence has been given to me since I have been in the hobby. So I believe no this book will not be going down in my lifetime. Besides comics having that little scare in the late 90's. These GA/SA/BA ultra key books are safer than gold. We all have been told by many people that digital comics and video games would spell the end of comics books, well that was in 1993 so I am over hearing that non-sense so same goes for this. Could AF 15's go down sure, but since the book has risen essentially in value every year since it came out This is not true. That's an odd assumption, but I do, thanks!

Again...famous last words. I don't know what a folk-lure is, though. Is that what you use to capture hillbillies...?

Famous last words. If Af 15's go down then the hobby is obviously dead as well. Speaking of "long lines", there are, as I type, 25 copies of Fantasy #15, in various flavors, on eBay alone. If there were people in line to buy them, why would so many copies be available for sale? That there are lots of people who would pay "for the right price" or "if they had the money", but that doesn't really count, does it...? I would buy one for the right price. Am I "in line" to buy one? No. There are long lines for Fantastic Comics #3. There are plenty of people in line for a copy of that book....any copy. And there have been times...hard though it may seem...that even the "third most important comic" has gone down in demand, and therefore value. The ones on eBay are only Buy it Nows with well over market value asking prices. Just because there is a line to buy them doesn't mean people who have 1% of a brain are going pay 5.0 money for a 2.5 copy. Dealers can't keep them in stock. They come in and sell very quickly. That illustrates the point. Price IS a factor that is preventing these "long lines" of people from buying one. If the price was ever spiraling upwards, what is "5.0 money" today would be 2.5 money in time, right...? The point, of course, is that there IS price resistance, which means the people lining up to buy them aren't willing to do so "at any price", which would tell you isn't *as* desirable as some may believe. And who are the people buying them? Are they people who want them because they want them? Are they people who want them because they believe they are good investments? Are they people looking to flip them? I would like one for myself, but they are far beyond what I think is reasonable to pay, in any grade. If one comes along that is substantially under current market, obviously I'm going to buy it....but not to keep. And I am part of that "base of demand" which will keep the value of an item above a certain level...but that base is always changing, and never as solid as one might think. Well I assume the people in line waiting for one aren't going to pay 15K for a CGC 2.0. Sure...now. They will if they have no other choice, or they will drop out of line. That's how the market works. Common sense? What does "common sense" have to do with the market? When you were in grade school, people were paying $3,000 for high grade copies. If you had said that high grade copies would sell for $100,000+ in 20 years, they would have laughed, and told you "a little common sense here, dude." Sure....now. There's nothing that will guarantee that will be true in the future. I am not hoping for anything like that. I don't need one, and have never really desired one. There are a hell of a lot more that I can get for my money that I would enjoy much, much more (a #100-#200 run of Detective Comics, for example.) But that doesn't mean that prices cannot, and will not, come down. The demand far, far outstrips supply, true...but the supply is not insubstantial, by any means.

That would be incorrect. There are several people thinking to do that exact thing; you can read it between the lines.

In other words...buy them because you like them. If you make money, hey, bonus. Otherwise....

And let's talk about things like fungibility, storage, insurance, movement, etc. When investing in mutual funds and the like, there is no need to worry about which shares you get. A like share is a like share is a like share (obviously talking about shares of the same class.) But with comics, every single one is unique, no two exactly alike, and this is moreso the further back in time you go. A 9.8 isn't the same as a 9.8 isn't the same as a 9.8...and that's the same grade. Each one is different, each one is unique. Each one is going to be worth a different amount, dependent on these factors. And then, even when graded, they have to be stored properly, and guarded against theft and damage for the entire time of the "investment." Mutual funds...? Not so much. Hard to steal in the traditional sense. Impossible to damage by dropping your quarterly earnings statement on the floor. Storage, insurance, these are real costs that eat into whatever potential profit there may be. And so, after 20 years, you've made a 10% annualized rate of return. Great! So, your 9.6 GSXM #1 that you bought for $3500 in 2015 and held for 20 years is now worth $23,500 (extremely unlikely, but let's go with it.) Did you beat inflation? Did you keep the book from being damaged? And, most importantly...how is $20,000 in 2035 going to help you in any significant way? You would have to buy 50 of them, and hope for the same return, and the same results (not at all likely), to have any significant impact on your retirement. Because the reality is, $1,000,000 isn't that much NOW, all things considered (remember...you have to LIVE on that money.) By 2035, it will probably buy significantly less. And that's assuming an extremely optimistic 10% annualized return, AND that inflation won't have killed it all, AND not counting fees and costs.

Famous last words. If Af 15's go down then the hobby is obviously dead as well. Speaking of "long lines", there are, as I type, 25 copies of Fantasy #15, in various flavors, on eBay alone. If there were people in line to buy them, why would so many copies be available for sale? That there are lots of people who would pay "for the right price" or "if they had the money", but that doesn't really count, does it...? I would buy one for the right price. Am I "in line" to buy one? No. There are long lines for Fantastic Comics #3. There are plenty of people in line for a copy of that book....any copy. And there have been times...hard though it may seem...that even the "third most important comic" has gone down in demand, and therefore value. The ones on eBay are only Buy it Nows with well over market value asking prices. Just because there is a line to buy them doesn't mean people who have 1% of a brain are going pay 5.0 money for a 2.5 copy. Dealers can't keep them in stock. They come in and sell very quickly. That illustrates the point. Price IS a factor that is preventing these "long lines" of people from buying one. If the price was ever spiraling upwards, what is "5.0 money" today would be 2.5 money in time, right...? The point, of course, is that there IS price resistance, which means the people lining up to buy them aren't willing to do so "at any price", which would tell you isn't *as* desirable as some may believe. And who are the people buying them? Are they people who want them because they want them? Are they people who want them because they believe they are good investments? Are they people looking to flip them? I would like one for myself, but they are far beyond what I think is reasonable to pay, in any grade. If one comes along that is substantially under current market, obviously I'm going to buy it....but not to keep. And I am part of that "base of demand" which will keep the value of an item above a certain level...but that base is always changing, and never as solid as one might think.

Indeed. This happened a couple of times in the 90's, culminating in the great bloodletting of 1998. Compare the prices for everything...literally every book that was valued above $10....from the 1997 OPG to the 1998 OPG in the grades that aren't NM. From the 1997 to the 1998 OPG, everybody's books that weren't NM took a substantial dive in valuation..some as much as 50%. It was quite shocking to those who didn't follow the market and put a lot of stock in the OPG, but totally expected by those who did (follow the market.) And, really, OPG ceased to be an accurate reflection of the market long since. The last time it was really "accurate" was around 1990. After that, they simply couldn't keep up. Perspective is necessary...in the beginning, values were (average) 50%/75%/100% for "Good/Fine/Mint." For example, Batman #1 was $100/$135/$175. By around 1980, that didn't work, and the prices became 33%/66%/100%. Later, that was adjusted to 20%/60%/100%. The percentages haven't really been constant for more than 3-4 years or so. But nothing compared to the bloodbath of the 1998 OPG.

The greatest Valiant villain of all time. No kidding. The greatest of all. Harada is fine, but he's like the Doc Doom... Master Darque is the Venom of the Valiant U.

It is also a little crazy. On the low end that is over $100K in books and on the high end it could easily be over a million. That is just stupid money to be sitting around in a box. I mean how much cash do you have to have to not care about a million dollars just sitting around? You would be better off with a money bin to swim in. At least that has security systems to protect from the Beagle Boys! What is a million dollars to people who have hundreds of millions? And what's a million dollars to someone who paid 10-12-15-25-50 cents each for them, as some did? There are people with coin collections with multiple individual coins worth over a million. Here's a registry set worth over a million dollars: http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/SetListing.aspx?PeopleSetID=67641&Ranking=ngc Here's a set with at least one million+ coin (1927-D), and several hundred thousand dollar coins: http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/SetListing.aspx?PeopleSetID=169198&Ranking=all It's all relative.

I almost started a poll asking about the largest non-dealer stashes of AF 15 that people know about. 60 is pretty impressive. Wonder if there are any 100+ copy stashes out there. I know Brad Savage used to go around buying up Avengers 4s in the day (I think we probably sold him 15-20 copies at Chicago con in the early 90s)... wouldn't be surprised if he had hundreds of copies at one point. Wouldn't be a shock if people did that for AF 15. I have over a hundred copies of certain books. It's certainly not an uncommon thing, especially if you don't have a lot of money tied up in them. Which books? Certain ones. Yes.

I didn't know they did that to people!

Yes. Not how debate works. Yes?? That's your come back? Where's your input? We all got your knowledge of bullying, but yet you can't provide any input and still you continue to post in this gsxm1 investment thread. Why are you posting popcorn? There's still a few of us who are awaiting your input and rebuttal to Mark1's post. Why are you beating around a bush. And don't say that's not how debate works. You replied to Mark1's post with simple short answers, with no input of your own. That's not how a debate works. That's because RMA doesn't have a rebuttal. Oh, I certainly do. You'll see it below. You've just changed the parameters of your argument. Let me refresh: ...which is not correct. This statement is neither true, nor untrue, because it concerns the future, which is unknown. You also give absolutely no parameters to qualify your claim about the future. For example: does it matter what condition the book(s) is/are in? How long a period of time must one hold said book(s)? What about restored copies? Qualified copies? Does it matter how much you pay, or is any price paid going to guarantee you will "make money"? The lack of any qualifying parameters makes the claim far too broad to come to any conclusion. You've posted data? I am unaware of any. Would you please point me in the direction of that/those post(s)? Time and date of post(s) would be fine. Thanks! Go back and look for the data I posted and my parameters that you seemed to have conveniently overlooked. We aren't talking restored and we aren't talking nose bleed grades like 9.4-9.8. I've stated this before. Also your point about what someone pays is ridiculous. And clearly a point just to have a debate but you know what we are talking about is buying a SA key at the going price for a given grade (such a GPA) and then holding it for a period of time. In some case it can be a year like Hulk 1 and your money could have doubled. In most cases it's the rule of 5. Hold the comic for 5 years and you will be guaranteed to make a nice profit. You just want to be a contrarian. I liked you a lot better when you just posted icons. (thumbs u Thank you Mark I couldn't have said it better myself. Rma all you're doing is defining posts. You have yet to post any data where a sa/ba key comic has declined in value since let's say the 80's as mark has stated from ospg. Let's just concentrate on blue label mid grade books, cause that's what's being debated. Here is a list for you to provide declining prices since 1980-2015 Af15 5.0 blue Tos39 5.0 blue Jim 83 5.0 blue Hulk 181 5.0 blue Gsxm 1 we'll say 7.0ish for this one blue label It is not up to the challenger to DISprove a claim, but rather for the claimant to prove it. If there are gaps in your knowledge of the history of the comic market, you'll have to fill them in.

Ok...time and date (so I can find them) of said posts would be great. Thanks! You liked me a lot better when I didn't challenge your unqualified blanket statements. As for your "guarantee"...in the securities markets, it is illegal to guarantee a profit on certain investments. There's a reason for this. There are no guarantees; past performance never guarantees future results. The real danger are people who say that such returns are always going to happen; there's no way for anyone to know that. Just because there have been positive returns doesn't mean there always be. How does one determine what the "going price" is? If the 12 month average for a book is $10,000, but there are no cpoies on the market available for less than $13,000, what then? How does one figure out what the "going price" really is?

I almost started a poll asking about the largest non-dealer stashes of AF 15 that people know about. 60 is pretty impressive. Wonder if there are any 100+ copy stashes out there. I know Brad Savage used to go around buying up Avengers 4s in the day (I think we probably sold him 15-20 copies at Chicago con in the early 90s)... wouldn't be surprised if he had hundreds of copies at one point. Wouldn't be a shock if people did that for AF 15. I have over a hundred copies of certain books. It's certainly not an uncommon thing, especially if you don't have a lot of money tied up in them.

Famous last words. If Af 15's go down then the hobby is obviously dead as well. Speaking of "long lines", there are, as I type, 25 copies of Fantasy #15, in various flavors, on eBay alone. If there were people in line to buy them, why would so many copies be available for sale? That there are lots of people who would pay "for the right price" or "if they had the money", but that doesn't really count, does it...? I would buy one for the right price. Am I "in line" to buy one? No. There are long lines for Fantastic Comics #3. There are plenty of people in line for a copy of that book....any copy. And there have been times...hard though it may seem...that even the "third most important comic" has gone down in demand, and therefore value.

Famous last words.