RockMyAmadeus

This. I just filled in the details. I've already stated my position, RMA. Jaydog himself conceded that the Cerebus #1 is the book to own in 9.4. Here's the one issue that troubles me: If OPG doesn't rely solely on GPA, and they use arms length transactions along with other data points when determining a books value, why then are they assigning the Cerebus #1 a 9.2 value of only $2100? If they are utilizing their team of advisors to appraise the value of a copy just below NM, and these dealers have conducted transactions that would lead them to believe the monetary value of a 9.2 copy is only $2100, how then could we conclude beyond any shadow of a doubt that its the more valuable book when Hulk 181's in similar grade are clearing $3k in transparent, online transactions? To which I respond: "well, then, why are they only valuing the Hulk #181 at $2000, using that same team of advisors and criteria?" It's because you're making an apples to oranges comparison. I don't know why OPG assigns the values it does, and neither do you. Only OPG knows. The values it assigns are frequently not in line with reality. The actual price OPG assigns is not meant to be taken literally (and, as has been stated before, is NOT FOR SLABBED BOOKS.) It is an unspoken range, and always has been. Trying to take those numbers literally, and then comparing them with sales of slabbed copies, is a mistake. You cannot directly compare "Price in OPG" and "prices for slabbed copies sold online." And do you see the hyperbole you just used? "when Hulk 181's in similar grade are clearing $3k" Multiple Hulk 181s? Are clearing $3k? There has been a single sale of a 9.2 at $3200 which just happened four days ago. Prior to that, the record was $2510. The 90 day average (which includes the $3200 price) is $2480. The 12 month average is $2286. Where are the multiple copies clearing $3k...?

It's difficult to be restrained at times. It's as simple as this: "2 + 2 = 4" "Nuh uh. 2 + 2 = 5" "No, by definition, 2 + 2 = 4" "Nuh uh. 2 + 2 = 5, because I say so." What can you do with that? Can you persuade someone who refuses to understand to see reason? It can be intensely frustrating, knowing there are people out there who live only in emotion, illogic, and without reason, and more, who actively reject reason when confronted with it. I understand dictators. I'm currently reading "Adolf Hitler: A Study In Tyranny", by Alan Bullock, considered the quintessential biography of the man, and it's amazing what he has to say about democracy, twisted though his understanding was. Democracy only works when man is able to reason. If man is without reason, democracy is turned into a vicious joke, and the people are ruled by the tyranny of the majority.

The B&W Spawn #1 is reputed to be limited to 2,000 copies, and look what it sells for... Apples and oranges. How many more were kept? And in nice condition? You mean, comparing the value of Spawn #1 with the B&W Spawn #1 is an apples and oranges comparison...?

This. I just filled in the details.

This isn't what the argument is about. I understand that you WANT it to be about what is more popular, but that's not Overstreet's premise. Sorry.

The B&W Spawn #1 is reputed to be limited to 2,000 copies, and look what it sells for... RMA, what, no lengthy semantical dissection of my weighted analysis of Hulk 181 versus cerebus 1 in all grades that you were asking for? I'm disappointed..... -J. -J. Posts like these are baiting, borderline trolling, and lead me to believe you are posting for fun, and you don't really believe what you are posting. Regardless, I haven't seen any weighted analysis yet. Maybe I haven't gotten to it. :shrug:

This isn't true, you know this isn't true, it's been explained repeatedly why this isn't true, but you keep on repeating things that aren't true. Jaydog, why do you keep doing this? It has been explained why this isn't true, yet you keep repeating it as if it is. Why? Are you aware you're doing it? Are you a student of propaganda, which says to just lie, lie, lie, and the longer and more boldly and often you lie, the more likely it is to be believed? What you have said IS NOT TRUE. The 9.2 price you're comparing is from 2005, and you're comparing it to a price from 2014. You CANNOT make that comparison without including that information. It is DISHONEST to continue to do so. If a 9.6 shows up, do you think it will sell for LESS THAN a 9.4? If a 9.8 shows up, do you think it will sell for LESS THAN a 9.4? If you are interested in being taken seriously around here, stop repeating things that are patently untrue. There are five 9.4 Cerebus #1s, not three. The book has sold four times, as recorded at GPA, in ten years, not three. Details matter. And as stated multiple times, in multiple ways, no, that is NOT the argument that is being made. GPA data is just one source that the OPG uses to determine values. Hulk #181 does NOT "blow it out of the water" in any grade above 9.0. There aren't "pro-cerebus" folks. There are "pro-fact", "pro-reason", "pro-logic" folks. So? Is demand more or less valid based on why it exists? "Oh, THAT price doesn't count, because he's buying it as a trophy piece!"...? And "single highest graded" means there is ONE copy at the highest grade. "Single" refers to the quantity of the slabs, not the quality of the height. No. It doesn't work that way. Sorry, Jaydog, but it's not. But you keep repeating it, and I'll keep disputing it. That's not what "single highest grade" means. That IS what "single highest grade" means. Because there's a SINGLE copy in that grade. A "boatload"? I don't think you really understand what the 9.9 and 10 grades really mean. You just contradicted yourself in one breath. If it's rare, it's not going to have a lot of sales data. Not "no." Just not much. And you are mischaracterizing the situation for your own argument yet again: OPG doesn't use "mysterious, off the books sales"...there's nothing "mysterious" or "off the books" about it: GPA isn't the sole source of information that the OPG uses. How do you think Overstreet came up with prices for 3 decades before CGC and GPA existed? ~ ahem ~ Continuing on.... I have to say this again: comparing "top grades" is not appropriate when those top grades are not the same "The top grade for Book X is 6.5, and the top grade for Book Y is 9.8, so it's valid to compare the value of a 6.5 against a 9.8, because they're both "top grade." That is self-evidently false. You use the language of the propagandist very well, Jaydog. You use emotionally charged words like "hyping" and "whine" and "mysterious" and "knock"...none of which anyone has done. This has been a sober discussion, and no one has resorted to hyperbole, speculation, and emotionally charged buzzwords to discredit the opposing argument except you and some of those making the same argument. "Well, what if THIS, and what if THAT, and what if the OTHER??" It's not about "What ifs"...it's about what IS. It is not an "apples to apples comparison" to compare the value of a book in 9.4 to a book in 9.9. Repeat: It is not an "apples to apples comparison" to compare the value of a book in 9.4 to a book in 9.9. "Long after the book crashed"...? Did you really just say...on this message board...that the value of Hulk #181 "crashed"...? Really? This is not a valid comparison. You cannot compare a 9.2 to a 9.8. In 9.2 and above? Clearly, the Cerebus #1. I thought we established this pages ago. Comparing a 9.4 to a 9.9 is not a valid comparison. Again: Comparing a 9.4 to a 9.9 is not a valid comparison. Comparing a 9.2 to a 9.8 is not a valid comparison. Again: Comparing a 9.2 to a 9.8 is not a valid comparison. This is not true, as has already been explained ad nauseam. Words literally fail to express the depth of astonishment I feel at reading such a statement. You literally made my jaw drop when I read this statement. No one "won't acknowledge the possibility of price dilution", because that is precisely WHY Hulk #181 is worth less. There is more SUPPLY. That's the "supply" part of "supply and demand." Jaydog, seriously man. Seriously. Please stop using propaganda words like "trumpet" and "salivate." You can make your point without resorting to propaganda, honest. In "the real world", Cerebus #1 in 9.2 and above is worth more than Hulk #181. Period. When did Hulk #181 tank? (Nevermind, you don't answer direct questions anyways.) Yes, let's please not lose sight of the big picture and common sense. Cerebus #1 is a more valuable book than Hulk #181 in high grade, for all the reasons already well explained. No "what ifs". No hyperbole. That is the reason why it is in the top BA list ahead of Hulk #181: because it is worth more in high grade. The numbers don't lie. I just do not want to imagine that you actually believe all of this.

The B&W Spawn #1 is reputed to be limited to 2,000 copies, and look what it sells for...

It is? So who determine's 'importance'? The market? Well in this case the market has spoken. I can agree with that. The facts show support for what RMA is saying. It makes little sense to debate it, it is what it is. Only by changing the parameters of the what information is being discussed (which is what they've done) has anyone even been able to turn it into a discussion. But regardless of if you or I think it is senseless to discuss or not, that WAS the OP's subject for discussion, and he's entitled to that. That's just not true at all. There are fewer copies at every grade level. From 8.5 on down Hulk #181 dominates in price. And it's one of the parameters that's been added to the topic to try and defend the death grip clinging nostalgia for the 'Wolverine'. No. That is incorrect. And anyway, it is NOT, absolutely NOT, the argument that was being made. Does anyone read what is actually being discussed or do they just wait for their turn to type? In the simplest terms, SCARCITY does NOT automatically increase value. Period. It CAN influence value, if other factors like importance or popularity are added to it. There are PLENTY of books more scarce than Cerebus #1 in 9.4 that wouldn't come ANYWHERE close to competing with IH181. WHY? Because they're NOT IMPORTANT. The REASON Cerebus #1 in 9.0+ DOES, is because of it's IMPORTANCE AND SCARCITY. Now Is it OVERALL more important than the first appearance of Wolverine. Of course not. And no one is SAYING that. NO ONE IS ARGUING THAT POINT. Stand down defenders of nostalgia. Your childhood dreams are still safe. What IS being said, is that based upon what information we have, it looks as though in 9.0 and up Cerebus #1 is selling for more than IH181. Some people are upset at the thought that some book that they are less familiar with could compete with the 'Wolverine'. Well, go buy a Hulk181 in 9.4 for $10,000 and you'll have your way. Somebody else has already put THEIR money where their mouth is on a Cerebus #1. Bottom line is this: You give any credible dealer the option to buy, only one of, either a 9.4 Hulk 181 or a 9.4 Cerebus #1 for $500, and they're going to take the Cerebus. WHY? Because they'll...MAKE MORE MONEY OFF OF IT. WHY? Because of it's DEMAND (popularity) combined with it's SCARCITY. Hulk181 is in demand, but in this COMPARISON, they'll make MORE money off of the Cerebus #1. HENSE.... the more VALUABLE of a book.... Now get this: If it WASN'T in demand (popular, wanted, desired) and have the possibility of selling for quite a bit MORE than the 9.4 Hulk181, but was still SCARCE.... the dealer wouldn't take that deal. Get that? The SCARCITY is NOT what makes it more valuable. It's the DEMAND (i.e. Popularity), added to the scarcity, that makes it valuable. In HIGHER GRADE, the DEMAND for the limited number of Cerebus #1's, appears to make it a more valuable book than IH181. More popular? Of course not. But In HIGHER GRADE, the DEMAND for the limited number of Cerebus #1's, appears to make it a more valuable book than IH181. Chuck's on the warpath. Y'all making irrational arguments best watch out. Let's say this again, because it is paramount: Scarcity alone does not make anything valuable. There must, must, must, must, MUST be something ELSE in addition to scarcity to make something valued, and thus valuable.

What about a 9.9 Cerebus #1? Would you trade it straight up for a 9.9 Hulk #181? Yes. But a 9.9 Cerebus 1 doesn't exist. You know I was foolin', right...?

That's good, because that would be contrary to established facts. Says who? How do you know that the high price is "mostly" due to the low supply? How do you determine which percentage of the sales price is due to demand, and which is due to the supply? Isn't it supply AND demand? Because it is nearly impossible to determine how demand affects the final price of any item. There are many, many books that are much, much rarer than Cerebus #1, and yet, they don't command the same prices. Why is that? There are fewer Maxx #2 and #3 ashcans than Cerebus #1s....and yet, they're worth far, far less than it is. How is that so, since the supply is much lower? There are only 100 copies each of the Vampirella Royal Blues, and yet, it's difficult to get $30 for most of them. It is incorrect to use the word "objective" in conjunction with adjectives like "most important", "more desirable", "better", "best", etc, as those words are, by definition, used to make subjective value judgments. Popularity does not determine truth. If 7 billion people believed that Howard the Duck was the most important character in comics, would that make it true? Or would it rather be actual objective factors like sales figures, longevity, cross-media exposure and the like which determines importance? That said, however, the issue is not, and never has been, which character is more important. No one, in the entire course of this discussion, has disputed the fact that Wolverine is a far, far more important character than Cerebus. So, the example is moot. Let's face facts, folks: you guys resent the fact that Cerebus #1 is more valuable than Hulk #181 in the highest grades. Admit it, and stop trying to defend it already. You've apparently not heard of the fact that extreme rarity can actually hinder popularity, and thus the price, of an item. If an item is essentially unobtainable, it will be dismissed and ignored, because no one can actively collect it. The 1804 dollar, with 15 examples floating around, is worth more than an 1870-S half dime, with only 1. You can own an 1804 dollar, if you have enough money. You cannot own an 1870-S half dime, for any price, until the owner decides to sell it. That's correct. We are all in agreement, and have never not been in agreement that Hulk #181 is a more important book to the comics hobby than Cerebus #1. What you're not understanding is that this discussion has nothing whatsoever to do with which character or book is more important. But I thank you for your response. Probably you only read some of the posts. Several people discussed which book was a major key or not. No, I read all of them. The contention isn't which book is a "major key" or not. That's fine...we're all in agreement. No one in this thread has disputed that Hulk #181 is a more important book than Cerebus #1. Moving on, then..? And yet, it's the premise of this entire thread. I guess you haven't read all the posts in this thread...? Agreed. Agreed, except that Cerebus #1 is more valuable in the highest grades, not the most.

Why can't it be ignored? The discussion isn't about the value of the two books across all grades. The discussion is about which book is the MOST valuable, in the HIGHEST grade the OPG reports. Both sides of WHAT? No one is disputing that Cerebus #1 is less valuable than Hulk #181 in grades lower than 9.0. We're all on the same side. GPA is only one source of information that the OPG uses to determine values. Rankings in the OPG are determined by the OPG, using whatever data they find relevant. Rankings may change next year, or they may not. But they will not be based solely on the public sale of slabbed copies, as recorded at GPA.

That's the entire point of this discussion. This entire thread has been a discussion about why Cerebus #1 is higher priced than Hulk #181 in the highest grade reported by the OPG. What thread have you been reading...? :shrug:

It's an excellent training ground to develop the discipline of patience.

And I thank you, stupid CGC board, for screwing up that submission and making me type it twice.

That's good, because that would be contrary to established facts. Says who? How do you know that the high price is "mostly" due to the low supply? How do you determine which percentage of the sales price is due to demand, and which is due to the supply? Isn't it supply AND demand? Because it is nearly impossible to determine how demand affects the final price of any item. There are many, many books that are much, much rarer than Cerebus #1, and yet, they don't command the same prices. Why is that? There are fewer Maxx #2 and #3 ashcans than Cerebus #1s....and yet, they're worth far, far less than it is. How is that so, since the supply is much lower? There are only 100 copies each of the Vampirella Royal Blues, and yet, it's difficult to get $30 for most of them. It is incorrect to use the word "objective" in conjunction with adjectives like "most important", "more desirable", "better", "best", etc, as those words are, by definition, used to make subjective value judgments. Popularity does not determine truth. If 7 billion people believed that Howard the Duck was the most important character in comics, would that make it true? Or would it rather be actual objective factors like sales figures, longevity, cross-media exposure and the like which determines importance? That said, however, the issue is not, and never has been, which character is more important. No one, in the entire course of this discussion, has disputed the fact that Wolverine is a far, far more important character than Cerebus. So, the example is moot. Let's face facts, folks: you guys resent the fact that Cerebus #1 is more valuable than Hulk #181 in the highest grades. Admit it, and stop trying to defend it already. You've apparently not heard of the fact that extreme rarity can actually hinder popularity, and thus the price, of an item. If an item is essentially unobtainable, it will be dismissed and ignored, because no one can actively collect it. The 1804 dollar, with 15 examples floating around, is worth more than an 1870-S half dime, with only 1. You can own an 1804 dollar, if you have enough money. You cannot own an 1870-S half dime, for any price, until the owner decides to sell it. That's correct. We are all in agreement, and have never not been in agreement that Hulk #181 is a more important book to the comics hobby than Cerebus #1. What you're not understanding is that this discussion has nothing whatsoever to do with which character or book is more important. But I thank you for your response.

I am still waiting for Jaydog to post his weighted analysis of Hulk #181 in all grades. ...is that actually going to happen, or was it just so much smoke to score rhetorical points...?

That's the white elephant in the room that has been ignored. Folks like RMA would rather point out the merits of another poster's auto correct ("Cerberus" vs. "Cerebus", my phone doesn't care either, my man) or how they choose to abbreviate "Overstreet", than the fact that about the only thing Overstreet is good for at this point is maintaining the status quo for old school collectors and giving local dealers something to low ball you with when you try to sell your books. It's great that some dealers can anecdotally recount how well their copies of Cerebus sell when they have them, there will always be a buyer for a book at some price. But again, if the book had an availability that was half (or even a quarter?) of Hulk 181, It would likely not be of any interest to even the niche collectors who like to feel like they have something "rare" in their collections. Essentially the true "value" of the book is skewed mightily by the low print and nothing else. The value of hulk 181 is intrinsic and real. If Hulk 181 had the same print run as Cerebus it would probably be a 250k book in a 9.4. If Cerebus had the same print run as Hulk 181 it would probably be a 20 dollar book. I believe that is the point others have been trying to make when expressing bewilderment about Overstreet's list. And no, hulk 181 hasn't "slowed". It's actually having its best year from a price appreciation standpoint in a long time. (thumbs u -J. This post really sums the situation up nicely. The argument about price to defend why ceres is important is not valid. Yes, it is expensive. But that has to do with the low print run and NOT because it is so sought after by a lot of people. Like you say..if they were equal print runs there would be a world of difference. Few people want the book but because of the low print run the value is such that the meager demand still is greater than the even more meager supply...therefore from a business pow we would like to have the book because we know it can sell for a high price. But again...not because it's an important character...because it has a low print run.. Why is there such a surplus of people willing to chuck reason out the window...? :shrug: The entire post you just said "summed up the situation nicely" is absolutely filled with bad reasoning, flawed understanding, and borderline libel. And then, you add your own to it! There are PLENTY of books that have print runs AND census counts AS LOW, or LOWER than Cerebus #1...but they do NOT sell for four figures in 9.0+. NO ONE is arguing that Cerebus #1 (not "ceres") is important because of its value. The argument is that Cerebus #1 has value because it is important It is supply AND DEMAND which runs a market. Why does that demand exist? Do you know the history of Cerebus, and how it influenced the comics industry? Do you really believe what you just posted...? Oy, people, come ON! Why do you post such things, for all the world to see? Gentlemen...we MUST use reason!

And that pretty much says it all. Knowing what we know, why WOULDN'T someone do that? Because Cerebus is just a dumb aardvark that no one cares about, while Wolverine is SUPER AWESOME COOL AWESOME HOT COOL! Don't you know ANYTHING??

What about a 9.9 Cerebus #1? Would you trade it straight up for a 9.9 Hulk #181?

...and even in the world of Overstreet, using its own limited and selective methodology this is your game changer: http://www.ebay.com/itm/INCREDIBLE-HULK-181-WHITE-PAGES-CGC-GRADED-9-2-NOVEMBER-1974-/400755267796?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item5d4ee018d4 -J. Hey Jaydog; You can't be serious here and must just be putting us on! If not, then from your link above, it's ovbious to me that you have absolutlley no concept as to the meaning of the valuations in the OS guide. The current edition of the guide just came out last month and attempts to based their valuations on reported actual sales for the previous year (i.e. for the year 2013) as opposed to possible sales for the coming year. The example from your link is for a auction that was completed on August 18th of the year 2014. This means that this sale should be reflected in next year's edition of the OS guide which is not due out until July of the year 2015. So yes, it is quite conceivable that next year's guide could indeed have Hulk 181 at a higher valuation than Cerebus 1 if there are continuing sales of 9.2 Hulk 181's at this same level and there are no 9.2 or higher Cerebus sales. On the other hand, I would have no problem with OS maintaining a higher valuation for Cerebus 1 if there are higher dollar value sales for Cerebus 1 or if the majority of the Hulk 181 sales for the balance of the year is not supported by this one particular sale at $3,199. Now if this were the Wizard price guide you was referring to, I wouuld understand completely as they always attempted to forecast or set prices before they actually occurred. Particularly funny when they were caught with their undies down around their ankles as some of their supposedly Top 10 hot books were listed with huge price increases even when they had not yet hit the newsstand as they were late. BTW: I am still waiting for you to countered my 5 points from above as your attached link certainly did not do the job. I will, however, apologize and admit that you are completely right if you can prove to me and everybody else on the boards here that August 18, 2014 is part of the year 2013 or has taken place before 2013. I will bow to this point my good man. -J. See, I knew you was putting us on and just trying to rile us up! Too bad as I thought the fun was just beginning.

I'm glad...I just wish you'd stop making irrational arguments.

Wow. Yes wow. Wow for the selective data points (now down to a whopping four) that the few remaining Cerebus 1 apologists are using to rationalize a thoroughly defeated position. -J. "The truth is what I say it is."

No, sorry. The two are not comparable in any meaningful way. You cannot make the comparison you are attempting to make. It doesn't work that way. 9.4 is not a "freak grade", whether there are copies of a book in this grade or not. 9.9 is a freak grade for almost everything except mid-2000s IDW. Stop making me repeat myself. GPA is NOT the only source Overstreet uses. Stop making me repeat myself. You keep trying to compare a 2005 sale to a 2014 sale (and an obviously wack-a-doodle price, at that.) It doesn't work that way. Yes, it makes sense that you would impute this to others, as I suspect this is how you, yourself, see things. You even assume I own a copy of Cerebus #1. However, that is not the foundation for rational arguments. You must be able to separate your personal feelings from the debate. It's a concept that is called "intellectual honesty", and it's a rare thing, indeed. Most people argue from their biases, which is very sad. You're making me repeat myself. That's a disingenuous statement, because that's not Overstreet's premise. Overstreet's premise is "in the highest grade we report. Cerebus #1 is more valuable than Hulk #181." And it is, demonstrably so. Also, your statement leaves the implication that the 9.4s have periodically sold for LESS than Hulk #181 in 9.4, as well. This has not only never been true, but Cerebus #1 in 9.4 has sold for 2-3 TIMES what Hulk #181 ever has, ever, in the entire history of Hulk #181 9.4 sales. Face it, guys. I know you don't like it, but the facts are what they are: due to the laws of supply and demand, in higher grades, Cerebus #1 is more valuable than Hulk #181. There's simply no getting around that. "The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is." - Winston Churchill

One day, while eating lunch with my family in Central Park....