LearnedHand

Yes, I agree with Richard. Every Promise book I’ve seen or purchased looks like it came out of a time machine. Example: purchased a Promise classic cover 7.5/white and own a non-ped 9.4 too. The 9.4 is a beauty and basically defect free. Promise copy has a largish bindery tear and a 1/4” tear and dust shadow on bottom b/c. Promise copy pops and looks superior. The depth and vibrancy of the colors, the unbelievable gloss, the overall freshness are unmatched by the 9.4. To me, it’s the difference between collecting grade and presentation. I’d rather have a copy that has non-offensive defects (which technically lower the grade) but has a “newsstand fresh” presentation over a copy that may be technically higher grade but looks like it’s a well-preserved vintage book. As a collector, the joy is in the art, not the bragging rights or resale. In terms of dust shadows, this doesn’t bother me, as virtually all my 9.4 and 9.6 MH copies have them.

So ... we're assuming a book's covers tell the whole story ... OK; that may be true. And, are we also taking the effusive Metro marketing statements as evidence of book condition ... hmmm...... My favorite post in this entire thread, which, of course, is one person's opinion and reaction to the Promise collection ... but undoubtedly echoes (obviously to varying degrees) a widespread reaction to this collection from day 1, when examples were even posted raw and unpressed; and before perceived "gift grades" eclipsed, for some, the collection's virtues. From Zosocane: "I will never get over the Promise books. Many of the books from the first few auctions were total face-melters, especially the Timelys which we've never seen (at least I haven't) in those grades. Tons of white-pager 9.4s, 9.6s and 9.8s on GA books we just never see come to market. Overgraded and manipulated with a press? Ok. Knock it down a grade or two, these are still killer books, and you have to ask whether we will see anything like this again. Then there is the underlying story, which is almost up there with Ms. Okajima's. The PL 17 is my favorite. It is ... indescribable. This is why we collect, why we hunt, why we love the hobby."

By any rational measure, a book is supposed to be graded in its entirety. Anything that detracts from its beauty separates it farther from a perfect grade. In terms of the "Promise Collection is totally over-graded" comments: I think there's clear evidence that some are slightly to moderately over-graded. At the same time, many are right on, and some may even be conservatively graded. As one example, this one is certainly no 9.6 ... but a 7.5? https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/superhero/all-winners-comics-9-the-promise-collection-pedigree-timely-1943-cgc-vf-75-white-pages/a/7244-96011.s?ic2=mybidspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyBids-101116

I think it’s become more complicated than that. When I started buying GA back in the late 1970s, most show-goers were “collectors” and even the overwhelming majority of dealers were into the material - often flipping through books with you to point out a splash page, panel, or story. Even telling you to sniff the books (esp the MHs and others that smelled like fresh ink). Back then, the motto was “buy what you like.” And, based on prices then, it was easy to do that. In my opinion, there was a holistic paradigm shift when the internet came, and the slab turned ephemera into commodities. Think about the shift in fundamentals: You can no longer actually smell, touch, or open a comic book to connect with the material. Pre-internet/slab, collectors who needed to sell would often get raped, as dealers and stores generally offered a fraction of book value. Made sense, as they needed to buy at a price that left resale profit. The internet/slab enticed collectors to sell by immediately allowing a collector to sell on their own terms and yield dealer sale prices. Prices have increased exponentially. Meaning, some books I bought on allowance money as a kid, I could not afford to buy today even if I had my entire pre-tax salary available solely for the comic book. On a more general basis, when buying a blue chip run book in grade becomes a minimum $5k/book purchase, and buying anything more important in grade becomes a minimum $10-15k purchase, for salaried adults, this necessarily means a lot of other things need to come into play, like mortgage, car payments, child expenses and saving for their university, quality of life stuff like travel, grown-up toys, etc., retirement, etc. As such, it’s often become a financial decision. Higher prices have resulted in higher stakes. Back in the day, most could afford a few errors in judgment, overpaying for big books by say 10-20%, as this would often have added say $5 - $25 to a book’s total price. Today, that same overpayment would mean paying an additional 4, 5, or 6 figures ... per book. Yes, salaries have gone up, but not as dramatically. As such, I think a huge part of the purchasing consideration for most collectors of this pricier material is whether the character and book have a relatively certain bright future on many levels. Based on the above, the “buy what you like” motto is just not realistic any longer - unless you collect lower grade or non-mainstream GA. Finally, I used to crack books out of slabs as a matter of course. Hey, I’m a collector - I love the books and not planning to sell most of it any time soon. I don’t crack anymore; it’s more granular when you’re talking about say $5k and more valuable books. Like the gent above, it’s a good idea to slab before selling. If you buy an already slabbed book, the slab cost is included. If you crack it out but eventually plan to sell, the slab is now a new upcoming cost. And, it could be many thousands of dollars per book, and this fee increases as books become more valuable - killing your return. Sure auction houses will front you this cost, but that’s a loan that gets netted. And, if you plan to insure your collection, it’s a much easier process all around if you’re insuring slabs. While this may seem off-topic, the point is that none of these now-necessary considerations have anything to do with being a fan of material, as they force even the hardcore (non-rich) collector to strongly consider the investment and dollars aspects. Oh, I’m a collector

I am a huge fan of this cover and own a nice copy ... but having said that, I think the reason it hasn’t increased like the others you’ve named is because all the others either feature a popular-today-character-that-has-also-transcended-into-pop-culture-via-film-or-TV, or cater to a super highly collected genre (pre-code tough and classic covers). The Adventure 79 is another favorite. Start with the fact that it was only broken out in the Guide from surrounding issues after I lobbied hard years ago for this to happen. Amazing to me given it’s arguably the best WWII cover in the series, and compares well to other WWII covers. And, despite it certainly increasing in value at possibly a better rate than the #73, I generally attribute this to #79 being a far less expensive book.

"Mistake." LOL. Only if the purchaser's focus is using the hobby to make money instead of the foundational reasons for the hobby: the fun and satisfaction that comes from the hunt and collecting our favorite titles, artists, and stories.

Downturns: there have a been a few periods where the market has been flat. And, those who were collecting GA in the early 1990s will likely recall there was a downturn then, which, amazingly, even resulted in a few pricing corrections by Overstreet. There was another period of flatness in the early 2000s, before the Marvel films stimulated things. In that period, I recall 2-3 CGC 8.0 Cap Am Comics #1 sitting at shows at $50k unsold. One seller eventually offered me his copy at $42k, since it hadn't moved at the $50k price in over 3 years. In terms of the stimulus money being a large contributor to what we're now seeing, I continue to have a lot of difficulty with this one and really wish someone could explain it with facts and no logic gaps. To my knowledge, stimulus checks, fundamentally, are assisting unemployed persons ensure their basic needs are met. It's difficult to imagine people foregoing food, shelter, car payments, etc. for comic books. And, even if these folks would rather be homeless and starving in favor of owning $20k - $50k - $100k books, there would need to be a sufficient number of these folks - that are higher-end comic book collectors and using these funds for comic books - to move the market needle. And, even if this were somehow true, stimulus checks amount to a few thousand dollars. That, to me, can't explain how 4, 5, and 6 figure books are now selling for multiples that exceed/far exceed the entire value of the stimulus check. The pandemic's impact on entertainment and travel did cause an uptick in money for discretionary spending. I'm not convinced, however, that using this extra money to pay unwarranted GPA multiples for any given book would be considered a prudent decision. And, I don't think over-paying now is necessarily mitigated by "holding this material long-term." This assumes everything appreciates over time; but history has proven many titles and characters that were "hot" 20-30-40 years ago are now flat, dying, or dead. I think the "hold long-term" philosophy holds for true blue chips, but not necessarily for every other Promise book title currently selling at inexplicable multiples. My 0.2 ...

When I first saw the Wendell Crowley books before they came to market, my general comment to Bechara was: structurally perfect, look like they were never touched by human hands, but aged. The Edgar Church (EC) copies often look touched, but are usually fresh and perfectly preserved. For me, it's sort of ridiculous to compare most so-called pedigrees to the EC books. While I happen to think the EC copies often rank second to the Tom Reilly and Allentown books, there's no denying that the breadth and sheer number of consistently pristine fresh copies in the EC pedigree make it hard to argue there's any other pedigree that is comparable. I'd also point out that designer comic books - or pedigrees - offer the seller marketing potential, hence, the number of questionable pedigrees. The Checking Copy stamp: it confirms the pedigree, and also makes the books feel "alive" in the approval process. Having said that, this only extends to those copies where the stamp is well-placed. A misplaced stamp ruins the image ... at least for me. Question: it's no secret that Fawcett recycled myriad Mac Raboy images - like the one on the CMJ #21 above, which came from Master #38. Thoughts on whether this diminishes the appeal of the recycled image book? Not analogous, but my Mac OA pages that don't have paste-ups seem more "real" to me, even if they aren't any less expensive.

Or ... responded to customer requests for this information. I generally avoid CL, but for their recent auction, asked for 4 bc scans and about staples. Got scans but got the usual reply that I should get grader’s notes for anything else due to CL’s inability to provide. My follow-up to that met with the consistent reply I’ve received in the past - being ignored.

True ... but I do think the reason we're seeing more Masks coming up for sale in the past few years in the on-line auction marketplace is more a function of the HA reported 22x Guide sale (CGC 5.5 sold in 2019 for $24k). Until the recent Promise copy sale, only 3 unrestored copies were sold through Heritage in almost 4 years. And, historically, it wasn't an expensive book. So, given its rarity, there was really no incentive for any hobbyist to want to part his/her copy - until that HA 22x Guide sale helped establish the "new market" value for this book, and incentive. Suspense #8, however, at least in my experience, is different. It has an aura of being something rare, special, and perhaps the swan-song of L.B. Cole's prolific body of cover work. I can tell you that in ~25 years, I've seen first-hand maybe 2 or 3 copies in the VF or higher grade range, with astronomical asking prices. In fact, it's never been inexpensive, even if (at least in my exp) it turned up a little more frequently at shows than the Mask. As such, and given the historically higher prices for the Suspense #8, I don't think the level of incentive is the same for folks to sell their copies of Suspense #8 as with the Mask #1 - but I do hope you're right.

Totally anecdotal ... not counting the copies that have come up for on-line auction, in my 40+ years of collecting, going to CreationCon, the Seuling and Greenberg shows, SDCC, NYCC, ChicagoCon, Baltimore, MegaCon, and many other East Coast shows and comic shops all over the country, I’ve seen maybe 12 total unrestored/collectible condition copies of Suspense 8 for sale. Comparatively, I’ve seen maybe 3 unrestored/collectible condition copies of Mask 1. Having said that, I think Overstreet adjusted Mask 1 based on the two mid-grade copies that came to auction via HA that sold for many multiples of Guide; in one case, 22x Guide. I spoke about the 22x Guide reported sale in my then-current market report, as it was astonishing ... at least to me.

Regarding the Cap 13s - was surprised to see the disparity in reported hammer price. For me, the Promise copy’s PQ was the issue. Probably a non-issue in this case, but I’ve seen more than a few CGC c/ow books that are chippy. But at the same time, I didn’t find the 8.0 to be “far superior.” Maybe not obvious from the scan, but it has a long (non-color-breaking) crease from the top of the book down through Hirohito’s (?) head, and another through the 10 cents. But it presents nicely and has nicer PQ. In terms of the MH Flash v. the New Adventure, there are probably 100 theories as to why these books reportedly performed as they did. For those who enjoy owning books that look like they come out of a time machine and those who favor the investment aspect, an argument can be made that the MH Flash was the better buy. For the pre-hero collector, the completist, and the collector of early DCs, there’s no contest as to whIch of these books gets the attention. In relative terms, the Flash is common. The NA rarely comes, up for sale. Just my $0.2

I am not commenting on the merits or veracity of the Youtube video in any sense here (or specifically to your post, Bronty). My post is purely to discuss, conceptually, the implications of the alleged comic book market manipulation. ~~~~~ The Youtube video is basically alleging the convergence between an auction house and slabbing company took a basement lower dollar hobby, without an established/serious ($$$) collector secondary market, and in three years took measures to artificially create this market. In terms of concerns voiced here that this same type of alleged market manipulation could be occurring in the comic book market, I think it would be more complicated to now manipulate the market; and a few such sales wouldn't necessarily move the needle significantly on a hobby basis. Comic books have had a robust and established secondary market since well before the auction and slabbing companies, and some higher end books have sold for Guide multiples since the 1970s - so there is a lot of data. Having said that ... ... if the concern is that comic market manipulation has been ongoing since the auction houses and slabbing companies came on the scene - this suggests that, on a hobby-wide basis, today's understanding of values is artificial. Why? Because the volume of slabbed books sold through the various (current and former) auction houses is staggering - and this is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of ripple effect. To do an apples-to-apples to the allegations in the Youtube video, we would need to look at the comic book hobby at the point where comic books were first slabbed and sold through auction houses - approximately 20 years ago. Reported hammer prices of slabbed books were setting incredible record highs. For those that remember back to that time, we're not just talking about the 9.8s or key books. That period reset the understanding of comic book values, and over the course of the ensuing 20 years - even if no further manipulation (under the hypothetical that manipulation occurred) had occurred - it has permeated into every aspect of valuation from today's hammer prices, to how dealers price their books, to the values you see in the Overstreet Price Guide. Whether or not the early 2000s were driven by commoditization and putting the book owner on equal resale footing with dealer or by market manipulation is well beyond the scope of my post. All I'm saying is IF we collectively believe there was market manipulation in the comic book hobby by the same dynamics as alleged in the Youtube video, we're already playing in a very corrupted framework. So unfortunately, proposed solutions are a great idea, but can only address some of the concerns over its continuation.

Curious: do you see yourself as a comic book hobbyist/collector? Or a commodities gambler?

Regarding: "CGC's final grade on condition is based on the book in its totality" This is an absolutely true statement. And the pragmatic context is: a general review of the exterior supports (hypothetically) a grade of say 9.0. The interior covers have staining (deduct), the interior has foxing (deduct), there is a small gouge on the rear cover (deduct), etc. One basic real-life example to illustrate: the Nicholas Cage More Fun #59 initially received a grade of CGC 8.0. It presents much nicer. Why the 8.0? According to CGC at the time: "it has a 3/4" - 1" spine split; a book with this size spine split can't grade > 8.0." Said differently, if the book's exterior is 8.0 and the pages are snow white, the grade is not going to jump up. Sorry, but this "totality/final grade" mantra seems to be becoming the prevalent misapplied justification for over-graded books.

Appreciate your insight here, but it seems the entire focus of your post is about: (a) confirmation that these books are from a CGG-proclaimed pedigree and that this should mean something, and (b) assuming they have the same status as established pedigrees, and using this as a springboard to extrapolate their future value and status. Not sure any of this has much to do with the core question being raised - why the price explosion here, given the well-established and well-known scarcity of very high-grade GA books. Not to challenge anything you’ve said, but the fact is, the reason the Church and Reilly (and some others) books continue to command a premium is because of hobby acceptance. With the Promise books, what’s evident so far is that, in a surreal point in our history, where people have more disposable income and collectible comic books are already generally selling at unprecedented or inexplicable prices, the Promise collection (so far) has been entirely consistent with this trend and in some cases even exceeded recent sale extremes. This dynamic alone doesn’t necessarily cement that this collection will, over time, be given the same status as the Church or Reilly collections. It also doesn’t mean that the craziness we just saw in the recent Signature auction will sustain after the world gets back to normal. Or that the over-graded books will be deemed on par with the non-over-graded Church and SF examples. What we do know is that everyone already knows how scarce a GA 9.6 and 9.8 are and, on this basis, these rarities will likely continue to sell at reflective prices, regardless of whether the books have a designer pedigree label attached to them by a third-party grading company that’s supposed to be in the business of grading, not marketing ... or were originally available to a dentist, a baker, a candlestick maker, or the general populace.

I don't have a crystal ball, but sincerely doubt this comparison can be made. There might not be a ceiling on comic book value appreciation, but I think it's unrealistic to assume the same growth rate applies to GA books today, at today's prices, as in the 1970s. Books were a whole lot less expensive then. 3X Guide in 1978 might have meant paying $120 for a $40 Guide Mint book, or $300 for a Guide Mint $100 book. Those prices were doable on an average salary, even if it meant saving up for several months. That $100 book today might run $25k. How many months would someone making an average salary today need to save to buy a $25k book? And, at 3X Guide Mint, that $100 book meant you'd be deciding on whether to spend $300 on either a choice GA book or maybe a well used car or a nice bicycle. At 3X Guide NM today, that same book today means you'l be deciding on whether to spend $75k on either a non-key (or very low tier key) GA book or maybe a nice new Benz, a boat, a house down-payment, or a year's tuition/room & board at a top-tier university. I also don't think paying 3X FMV today, with abandon, makes a lot of sense as I sincerely doubt average GA books (not necessarily keys) will grow as much in the next 40 years as in the last 40 years. Even Action 1, the most exceptional performer of all time, which went from ~10K to ~$3M in 40 years, is unlikely to keep that pace and be worth ~$1B in 40 years.

If your post is supposed to offer advice for those who need it, I think this is very considerate. I would point out, however, that the statements above are very broad brush. Of all the so-called pedigrees, very few actually command a true premium based purely on the collection's name, and not a given book's grade. Nothing against this new pedigree - it is truly amazing. And, GA 9.6s and 9.8s are always going to draw a lot of attention. But, assuming it's a good idea to spend record amounts of money on any book in this collection assuming they will all perform comparably to top-tier pedigrees, well ... time will tell.

You're arguing over validity of Guide values and whether it's a measuring stick? Uh, ok ... but that has zero to do with my post. I mentioned that my experience back in the day was dealers would generally use the Guide as the basis for pricing and negotiating. Mentioned this for the purpose of pointing out where pricing was and that an elementary school kid at that time could buy GA with allowance money. That comment was part of the larger point about why people can be old school or "true collectors" (again, whatever that's supposed to mean) and still concerned with price. Finally, your "go with your gut" comment is exactly what I was talking about - if someone can "go with their gut" on $10k+ books, awesome ... it's just not reality for most people, for the reasons stated in my prior post.

True, so true. Another reason I cherish all my raw pre-pressing mania era books.

Debates over dust shadows, inflated grades, etc. aside, this is truly an astonishing collection! To think someone meticulously amassed the best copies on the newsstand, and that collection sat basically in a time capsule for 70-80 years, is mind-boggling. @Richard - I agree with your comments and, on your "money [being] no object" comment, I recognize you're saying this sort of tongue-in-cheek to make a point. I would say, however, that as you know, hobby dynamics have changed dramatically since the advent of CGC and the on-line auctions. Back in the day ('70s - '80s), it was a rarity to see a GA book priced over ~$500, with most at/below $200. Even a grade-school kid like me working with allowance and Christmas money could walk into the NYC Seuling and CreationCon shows with ~$150 in my pocket and go home with at least 1-2 high-grade GA books. Books were rarely priced above Guide, and Guide was the starting point for bargaining - a core (and fun) part of the deal. Dealers handed you a book and generally pointed out they could do better than asking price. That's changed... ... today, "Guide multiples" are the pricing norm. Some hobbyists even think it's a badge of honor to point out how they can drop $10k on a book at any given time. Imagine putting a nice GA collection together today if average book price is $10k. But, as I'm sure you'd agree, for the Average Joe with a mortgage and children, this isn't feasible and we are no longer talking about a fun hobby where you "buy what you like;" it's a broader conversation about spending considerations. As such, I think you can be an older collector or "true hobbyist" (whatever that might be) and still be very focused on spending. My $0.2... Back on-topic: going to sit back and soak in the continued unveiling of this amazing collection. It's something that doesn't come around every day! Peter

Don't 9.8 Church copies have dust shadows?

Honestly, I'm surprised this hasn't been surfaced before. The following is an elaboration on my post in the Heritage vs. Clink (or whatever) thread: 1. Back cover scans (BCSs) are SOP for serious auctioneers. Even most amateurs who post their books for sale on eBay provide at least BCSs. Yet, Clink rarely posts BCSs. 2. Every time I've ever emailed Clink for BCSs, I do not get the reply I seek to my first email, and often get no reply at all. I sometimes send a follow-up email with very mixed results at best. 3. Heritage not only provides BCSs as SOP in all Signature auctions, but each lot includes very valuable data for my decision: an adjustable scan enlargement feature, a link to GPA, and prior HA sales data. Clink generally provides a front cover scan and, basically, a marketing paragraph (or two) for the given copy. If we level-set from the buyer perspective: Clink is asking me to give them my hundreds or thousands of dollars over the other available buying choices. In return, they are providing less than the minimum I expect from any auctioneer for me to make an informed decision. Further, it's more time/effort for me to try to get Clink to provide this minimum. In short, I don't view these two entities as competitors.

Thanks all for the feedback. I like the books as-is, but not much in the bound volume market from a "market" standpoint, so was curious. Robotman - outstanding!