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Speculator Risk

Started by joe_collector,

112 posts in this topic

Joanna

Joanna

Posted
Posted

Joe,

 

I am selling my comics, not buying. I don't have a credit card, and have no debt at all. When I buy something, it is only because I have the money to do so. I can't afford to CGC my comics, so I'm earning free slabs by writing articles for their newsletter. This was my solution to that particular problem. None of these gives me a right to tell others how to live, regardless of how I feel about things.

 

I'm not going to tell anyone else how to spend their money. There is a line between helpful and intrusive when it comes to other people. You've stated your views on an impending crash since, well, since I can remember. Say anything long enough and it will probably come true. Yes, some CGC books sell at inflated prices. Others don't. If someone works hard, earns his money and wants to spend it on an inflated book for whatever reason, then that is his right. If someone wants to finish a run, or prefers one character over others, or prefers low grade readers, or wants the absolute highest grade whatever it takes -- those are all individual choices.

 

People who are selling books now aren't heroes or geniuses or anything other than people who, for whatever reason, are selling books now. It may be because they feel the market will crash. It may be for a completely unrelated reason. Some people will never sell their books. Are they stupid? No, they want to keep their books. Just as you obviously want to keep yours. It's wrong for others to tell you to sell, if you don't want to. Just as some will think it's wrong for you to constantly throw a negative cloud over a hobby they feel positive about.

 

Do you like any aspect of comics, Joe? If so, what are they? What makes you feel good about owning comics, reading them, looking at the covers, or whatever it is that draws you to them? Logic dictates there must be something.

 

-- Joanna

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BronzeBruce13

BronzeBruce13

Posted
Posted
Now I don't want to turn this into another Market Crash thread, but...

 

Deja vu, all over again (from three months ago):

 

 

I'm not going to get into rant mode this time Joe because frankly, your binge of the last 4 days has worn me out (do you drink lots of coffee or what!?!?)...but does every single one of your posts have to deal with one of the following:

 

1) some type of CGC conspiracy;

2) someone scamming somebody; or

3) the price paid for a comic book, and more specifically, your speculation on the future price of comic booksl? confused-smiley-013.gif

 

Bug's post nailed it...and I would guess the majority of posters and lurkers here agree with him (the inflammatory comments removed since I said this wasn't going to be a rant):

 

How can anyone not stalk you, Joe? It's impossible not to. You're in nearly every comic forum......puking the same negative garbage over and over...24 hours a day.

 

We get it. You say the market is getting ready to crash. You don't agree with CGC's stance on the qualified labels........you're not a CGC fan......blah......blah.....blah.......adinfinitum.

 

Do you not even realize how you sound like when you do this in nearly every one of your posts all over the forum? It's like you feel compelled to keep repeating the same garbage over and over like it's going to force us to agree with you.

 

In 25+ years of reading and collecting comic books, I never had a single bad vibe about this hobby, but obviously that's changed now since you've been tearing it a new one since July of 2002...

 

I suggest you take a day or two off and ask yourself why you're here - if you're here to share your enjoyment of the hobby with everyone, then make it enjoyable. Everyone enjoys your funny/insightful posts. If you're here to be bitter and continually [!@#%^&^] and moan...we're tired of it.

 

And please don't bother responding to me...b/c I'm sure I've already heard it!!

 

 

 

I have to agree with Mike on some of his post.

 

As much as I try to overlook it and participate in a constructive way, the content of Vince's posts are becoming repetitive again. The volume is also staggering... the tone/vibe often (not always) judgmental and/or critical... and the discussions seldom as productive as they could be due to his inability to accept/explore another's point of view. It's almost always a "defense of his position only" which frankly makes the exercise tiring, frustrating and not very enjoyable.

 

I too appreciate and value some of Vince's thoughts, views and experience, but I find myself withdrawing from the forum somewhat when he's on a non-stop "post-a-thon" on the usual topics. When I engage him I feel like that graemlin who smacks his head against the wall.

 

Recently, during several PM communications, I found him to be quite different than his forum persona. I found him likable, open-minded, and respectful of what I had to say. I'm not sure why there is a difference, but I like "PMVince" better than "ForumVince". (even with the same basic opinions)

 

Vince has mentioned his need to keep his arrogance in check, and I support his continued efforts in that regard. He still needs to work on it and maybe approach forum communication a little more the way he handles it in PMs.

 

I love the hobby as much as anyone and come to these forums to get a break from real life and for some good comic conversation. I don't expect or want a stream of "positive only" topics... we need a mix, and to hash out (respectfully) what needs to be hashed out. Problem is, I don't enjoy participating when there is a heavy volume of repetitive critical, negative and bickering style discussions either. The bickering is not all Vince's doing, but is often a byproduct of the way he expresses himself and speaks to others IMHO.

 

The majority here are largely supportive of CGC (flaws and all) and feel the company has added something to our enjoyment of the hobby. Vince's basic views have been expressed (as is his right) to all "several" times now and CGC has not tried to silence him either to their credit. That said, I'd ask him to consider why many of us are members of the "CGC Forum" and maybe give us a break.

 

Simply put... we need a little more balance Vince. If you're 95% anti-CGC and can't offer much positive/enjoyable conversation for counterbalance, perhaps dividing your time with a different comic forum (non CGC) is more suited for you... and better for many of us?

893crossfingers-thumb.gif

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comicwiz

comicwiz

Posted
Posted
Yeah. It comes from bailing out countries that can't fight wars.

Canada's what... 0 for how many now?

 

YOUR KIDDING ME RIGHT?!?!

 

Bailing! 27_laughing.gif27_laughing.gif27_laughing.gif27_laughing.gif

 

How fiscally responsible of the Bush administration, to think of bailing-out other countries, while repeatedly leaving shards from the purse strings scattered all over the American continent -- LET ME ASK YOU -- DO YOU REALLY THINK 87 BILLION IS GOING TO CUT IT THIS TIME?

 

One things for sure, at 500 billion deficit, I'd be a little careful about spreading your patriotism around so bullishly -- because quite frankly, its [!@#%^&^] embarrassing that an administration is allowed to be so bloody irresponsible.

 

There's a new breed of war shaping around us my friend; and its no longer being judged by strength in military and warfare. This new world order is being dictated by strength in economy, and its a well known fact that the US is currently in no shape to be a contender.

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comicwiz

comicwiz

Posted
Posted

I am fully aware of the cyclical nature of the comic market. Other markets like real estate suffer from the same boom/bust dynamic. It doesn't prevent people from making purchases, either as speculators or home owners. The point, which you seem to be obsessively trying to drive home is to avoid buying "too top heavy" or "rich" in a market place already 3/4 of the way through its boom cycle, and on its way towards its doomed downward spiral.

 

I'm not claiming that I am COMPLETELY aware of the recent trends, and the any looming downward cycles within the comic market. But what informs my attitude and buying behaviour is that right from the get-go, my comic purchases have been planned/budgeted, and made well within my means. I don't want to come across as yet another negative view in the crowd, but to echo some of the sentiments/comment that have been thrown your way, I think you are really trying to hang-on to an ideal, and just waiting to pounce on the inevitable.

 

There's no point grieving, because its imminence defies my own logics and beliefs. And when it does, I'll be too busy looking for the deals while I'm sure you will be found parading your "I told you so" attitude.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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You've stated your views on an impending crash since, well, since I can remember.

 

Some people may view my original post as "just another market crash" comment, but my intention was of showing some historical background on previous speculator booms, along with illustrating an alarming rise in speculator risk factors.

 

I cannot believe that none of the newbies find this information useful in some way, even if it's just as historical backdrop to the hobby. I have heard from some, and the comments are thankful in nature.

 

But of course, the forum faithful have degenerated the original purpose into "just another market crash thread" and I, unfortunately, have gone along.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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I am fully aware of the cyclical nature of the comic market. Other markets like real estate suffer from the same boom/bust dynamic. It doesn't prevent people from making purchases, either as speculators or home owners. The point, which you seem to be obsessively tyring to drive home is to avoid buying "too top heavy" or "rich" in a market place already 3/4 of the way through its boom cycle, and on its way towards its doomed downward spiral.

 

The point I was trying to make, is that with each boom/bust cycle, the stakes are raised considerably. We start with newstand speculating, move into the $25-$50 range for Independants, then $100 and up for Valiant, and now potentially thousands for a single CGC book. Pretty scary IMHO.

 

What's the next cycle going to be?

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rob_react

rob_react

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Posted

You get really close to what I've been feeling Bruce, so I'll come out and say it. As interesting as I used to find comicinvestor.com and as much as I know that somewhere, deep down, he has good things to offer, I can't help but feel that, when he's on a bender like this (which had been 100% of the time since he's been back), the forums absolutely suck.

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sfilosa

sfilosa

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Posted

The people I worry about are those who may be getting in over their heads, by purchasing CGC comics at nose-bleed price levels, and as a result may not be able to withstand a potential downturn.

 

 

I liked this comment from Joe_Collector.

 

Somehow, I don't really believe that you are worried about people as much as you are worried about being RIGHT.

 

That said, there will probably be a time when certain books that people are paying STUPID money for now, will drop in value significantly.

 

 

Your point has been noted.

 

 

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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I cannot believe that none of the newbies find this information useful in some way, even if it's just as historical backdrop to the hobby. I have heard from some, and the comments are thankful in nature.

 

Well, I for one am all for informative posts like the one that kicked off this thread. Of course, the thread has turned into the predictable circus that it always becomes, in this case becoming "The Trial of Joe_Collector"...

 

In any case, I'm all for hearing about historical precedents that may have relevance to the current hobby environment. Even some of the uber-bulls on this Board have asked about parallels in the past for the comic book hobby or in related markets such as graded sportscards. Well, Joe delivered here, so if you want to burn him at the stake, please do it in one of the many other threads or start a special "Dunk Joe in the Water Tank" thread so not to detract from the message here. mad.gif

 

I am a bit perplexed at how people can continue to make comments to the tune of "even a broken clock is right twice a day" or "if you say something long enough, it will eventually come true". Just what exactly is your "investment" horizon? Personally, I've always said that the "bust" portion of the cycle could take 2 to 5 years because unlike some people, I actually try to *learn* from history. I've seen & studied numerous market bubbles in my lifetime, almost all of which took years to inflate and years to unwind...why should an unwinding of the graded comics bubble take any shorter than those? confused-smiley-013.gif

 

Objectively there is a lot of evidence to support that a correction in the market has already been underway for some time in the market. I'm pretty sure most people on this Board realize it...even the uber-bulls have been much, much more cautious in their comments for *months* now.

 

(continued)

 

Gene

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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
Posted

For those who actually care about historical parallels because they know that using the Overstreet Guides as history books is a total joke, here's one for you.

 

Using December 31, 1983 as a base = 100, MS-63 graded coins rose about 75% between then and the summer of 1989. Meanwhile, MS-65 graded coins tripled between the end of 1983 and mid-1989. From the summer of 1989 to the summer of 1990, MS-63 coins actually gave back about 1/3 of their gains from the previous 4 1/2 years, but MS-65 coins, after a brief correction, surged to even higher heights (what we call a "non-confirmation").

 

The Numismatic News Coin Price Index, which represents a broad-based sample of coin grades, topped out in the summer of 1989 at a level of over 10,000. Even while MS-65 coins surged to new highs in 1990, the index remained below its peak (mid-9000s). Well, this "non-confirmation" described above was merely symptomatic of a large malaise in the overall coin market. By the beginning of 1995, the index had crashed to the mid-4000 level.

 

Now, replace "MS-65" with "CGC 9.8+" for Moderns, "CGC 9.6/9.8" for Bronze and "CGC 9.4/9.6" for Silver while replacing "MS-63" with "CGC 9.6 and below" for Modern", "CGC 9.4 and below" for most Bronze (obviously, there are keys in every era which may be worth more in the grade cited), "CGC 9.2 and below" for late Silver and "CGC 9.0 and below" for mid-Silver and "CGC 8.5 and below" for pre-1965 Silver and what do you get? Another non-confirmation. We all know that many/most non-highest graded books have fallen off a cliff in the past two years as more and more copies have come to market while the highest grades have reached previously unthinkable levels (J_C's "monkey climbing a tree" analogy in practice).

 

I'm sorry, but looking back through 33 years of Overstreet guides is NOT what I call "knowing your history". It takes real work and real analysis (like the above) if you're going to have an edge in the comic market or any market. Those of you "investing" in funny books because "it's fun" or because of fortune-cookie investment advice (e.g., "Buy the highest graded copy", "Buy pre-65 Marvels", etc.) from people "talking their position" would be well-advised to remember that.

 

- Gekko

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comicwiz

comicwiz

Posted
Posted
The point I was trying to make, is that with each boom/bust cycle, the stakes are raised considerably. We start with newstand speculating, move into the $25-$50 range for Independants, then $100 and up for Valiant, and now potentially thousands for a single CGC book. Pretty scary IMHO.

 

What's the next cycle going to be?

 

If the rest of the econonmy is booming, and one or two markets dwindle, then the effects of inflation justify the cyclical rises, from one cycle to the next, moreso when one examines passage of time. Any good economist worth a spit of their pay could demonstrate to you how an investment of $100 on Valiant in the 90's matches up side-by-side to a $200 dollar purchase on an Ultimate Spider-man (white variant) in the year 2000, easily by using an inflationary theoretical perspective and some comparitive data.

 

If however, the economy just plain sucks (as it currently seems, at least in the US), at its most basic level, that rise in cyclical payout for relatively the same type of investment over a 10 year period CAN STILL be explained through inflation -- HOWEVER, the CURRENT economic environment is best explained through stagflation -- the slowing growth in the economy accompanied by a general rise in prices. When Bush decided to go to the coffers for another $87 billion to accompany a $500 billion deficit, don't you think that this kind of payout is going to have adverse effects on the US econonmy, and worsen inflation in the US? Here is the kicker: the effects of inflation will be made considerably worse by stagflation, and any impending crisis (including the claim made by some of the top economists in the last year that an imminent oil crisis is looming) will impact all markets; crashes of this nature have no specicifity to industry. An Indiscriminate recipe for recession and market crash, my friend, and NOT specific to the comic market or its activity.

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Joanna

Joanna

Posted
Posted

 

Some people may view my original post as "just another market crash" comment, but my intention was of showing some historical background on previous speculator booms, along with illustrating an alarming rise in speculator risk factors.

 

To give credit where it's due, I liked your point about the rising risk factor. That was interesting and insightful. Truth is, I read the thread all at once, and that point got buried really quickly (not any one person's fault, it was simply the way the thread went).

 

I suppose what tends to bother me about threads like this is that they tend to be so general, sweeping and negative. For example, they don't apply to my situation (I have never purchased a CGC'd comic), yet I somehow end up feeling 'guilty' for daring to like comics!

 

Actually, that's exactly why they always strike me negatively -- there isn't much for me to relate to other than the very wide broom of 'comic fan'. There tends to be a condemnation based on the asumption that everyone is buying the wrong books at the wrong price and doing so while blissfully blind and stupid. I just don't feel that's the case with the majority of posters here. Most people here tend to be very aware of the market, pries, ebay, cons, etc.

 

And that begs the question -- who are you lecturing/protecting? Is it the newbies? If so, that has some validity, I suppose, although a link to old threads would work as well and would avoid yet another rehashing. OTOH, in this case, you had a new twist on your theory, so of course you wanted to present it.

 

I dunno, Joe. I have difficulty relating, and many here have expressed fatigue with the repition -- but in the end, it's your decision, and your right to speak your mind.

 

-- Joanna

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valiantman

valiantman

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Posted
Any good economist worth a spit of their pay could demonstrate to you how an investment of $100 on Valiant in the 90's matches up side-by-side to a $200 dollar purchase on an Ultimate Spider-man (white variant) in the year 2000, easily by using an inflationary theoretical perspective and some comparitive data.

The most interesting aspect of the "speculator" is the amount of money spent

at the particular price point.

 

For example, with Harbinger #1 selling on eBay for $25,

A $100 investment in 1992 on Harbinger #1 (50 copies at cover price) would be

more valuable today that almost any other comic book "investment" available

at the time. However, buying one copy of Harbinger #1 for $100, would have been

a very bad idea, "speculation-wise". What's the difference? Since the amount is

the same ($100), the difference is the "price point".

 

Realistically, all $2 and $3 comics today COULD BE fillers in tomorrows $0.10 bin. But, if you consider the $2 to $3 as an "entertainment fee" and not investment,

then your $0.10 tomorrow is basically $0.10 "profit", since there's usually no return

of any kind on "entertainment" (meals, movies, concerts, games, etc.).

 

From the invididual collector standpoint, each person will buy what they want at

the price they're willing to pay. Many will make bad decisions on some books,

and a few will be offered unbelievable deals... only time will tell.

But this is really no different from any other hobby or investment...

If you're not willing to lose $1,000... don't put it in "funny books" at all.

If you are willing to lose $1,000... consider it totally lost, and be pleasantly surprised

the day you sell if you can get $100, $500, or $5,000 from that "loss".

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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For example, with Harbinger #1 selling on eBay for $25,

A $100 investment in 1992 on Harbinger #1 (50 copies at cover price) would be

more valuable today that almost any other comic book "investment" available

at the time.

 

Smart people sold at the apex, then used that money to buy more funny books. I also have a stack of ASM 300 that I wouldn't trade for double the amount of Harbinger #1's. I don't normally speculate, but Big Mac and a 300th anniversay issue?

 

Realistically, all $2 and $3 comics today COULD BE fillers in tomorrows $0.10 bin. But, if you consider the $2 to $3 as an "entertainment fee" and not investment,

 

I agree with this, but I fail to see the "entertainment value" in a CGC slab. Do you toss it like a frisbee or use it as a coaster?

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