Speculator Risk

[joe_collector]

Now I don't want to turn this into another Market Crash thread, but when looking back on the speculator boom/bust phenomenon, the financial risk seems to grow exponentially as time goes by.

 

Certainly, the second wave of Marvel's in 68-70 were speculated on by collectors, as were some early-70's comics like Conan, Shazam and Shadow, to name a few, but the real "general public" speculation really started in the mid-to-late 70's and into the early-80's.

 

1) Number One issues were where the specs liked to hit, and comics like John Carter, Battlestar Galactica, Micronauts, Tarzan, Red Sonja, Nova, Ms Marvel, Ka-Zar, ROM, et al, were hoarded like never before. Many of these comics rose to the $5-$10 under relatively healthy back issue conditions, before falling back to cover. In an early-80's Marvel Guide to Collecting Comics, Micronauts, ROM and Ka-Zar #1 issues were in their Top 10 Best Investments chart, so don't laugh.

 

The key here is that the buying frenzy only drove prices to the $10 level, if that, so the potential monetary loss when the party stopped was minimized.

 

2) When we enter the mid-80's, the Independant Fad went into high-gear, and although Cerebus/TMNT started it, comics such as Mage, Fish Police, Boris the Bear, Flaming Carrot and others took off like a bat out of heck, speculation and hoarding were rampant, and these books were soon selling for $25 and up. This led to even more #1 issues, and even more hype, until finally, even the speculators saw through the charade and the Independant market imploded like no spec market before it.

 

This was a bit harder on the speculator's pocket book, as cover prices of these Independants were higher than DC/Marvel and many dealers took advantage of over-zealous buyers and tried to manipulate the market to some extent. In the end, all they got was more starter for the fireplace, and speculators who were buying at $25-$50 a pop were hammered hard, and probably pined for the days of the Micronauts and Tarzan speculation.

 

3) Then came a lull until we hit the late-80's, and we start seeing speculation returning to form. Justice League #1, Punisher Limited #1, and other #1 comics are back in vogue, and by the time the 1990's start, a whole new wave of speculation is underway. There were many avenues for this, but the most harmful was the over-valued Valiant speculator bust.

 

While Micronauts #1 might have cost you $5 a pop back-issue, and Fish Police $25, buying into the hot issues of the Valaint Craze was often something that started at $100 and went up. When the end came, there was blood everywhere, and some dealers went bust, and collectors literally saw tens or hundreds of thousands of "Valiant Dollars" evaporate. Comic speculation had long been a fun pursuit, but now people were defaulting on loans, trying to fill up their retirement saving (that was wasted on comics), while others lost cars or even houses.

 

4) By the time 2000 rolled around, we found ourselves in another speculator boom, with the same rules, many of the same participants, but now on a new battleground: slabbed comics. Prices skyrocketed, just about any common comic in a HG slab attracted furious bidding, and it was pure chaos for a while there. Things have slowed down, but prices are still vastly inflated across the board, and especially in the case of the Modern CGC market.

 

To repeat the above comparison, Tarzan'll lose you a few bucks, getting foolish with Mage will cost you more, and those looking to get rich off Valiant investments took it on the chin. But this pales in comparison to the CGC phenomenon, where books that sell for cover raw are bid up to hundreds or even thousands of dollars, depending on the number on the slab.

 

Every new generation of rampant speculation brings with it two constants: the prospect of a bust over the horizon, and exponentially higher prices and a risk factor that increases along a similar line. And in a few years we'll all look back at the big CGC boom/bust and shake our heads, and then hurtle into another speculator phase with even higher entry costs and a mushrooming risk factor.

 

If history is any indication, the next one will be a whopper.

[dam60]

JC - if you can see this all so clearly why don't you slab and unload some of your GS-1 hoard? Is there any way to short the comic book market? Joe, that's how you can really make a few bucks - sell a few books short or the equivalent

 

DAM

[THE_BEYONDER]

 

THE END IS NEAR.....

[joe_collector]

 

THE END IS NEAR.....

 

That's a certainty, but doesn't the exponential risk factor bother anyone?

 

I was reading an old OS today and thinking "Man, these are complaining about Fish Police falling from $25 to cover?"

 

Then I pulled out one from 1994, and sure enough dealers were moaning and groaning that Valiant sales were way down, Guide prices were not attainable, and that a bust was inevitable.

 

Now.....

[THE_BEYONDER]

If I didn't collect comics.......I'd sell every last one of them today.

[DiceX]

If I didn't collect comics.......I'd sell every last one of them today.

 

Think of it this way...

If the market crashes tomorrow... CHEAP COMICS FOR ME!!!!

[THE_BEYONDER]

If I didn't collect comics.......I'd sell every last one of them today.

 

Think of it this way...

If the market crashes tomorrow... CHEAP COMICS FOR ME!!!!

 

Yeah, but if you sell all your books before the market crashes.......you could buy 10 times as many after it does.

[joe_collector]

If I didn't collect comics.......I'd sell every last one of them today.

 

Truer words were never spoken. I am being very careful on what I buy now, and it has to be a "keeper" for me, which usually translates in early to mid-Bronze superhero books.

 

My criteria is now "if this comic were worth nothing upon resale, would it still be worth the price I paid". And to the "why don't you sell your GS X-Men #1's" crowd, I feel I got my 33-cents out of it.

[joe_collector]

If the market crashes tomorrow... CHEAP COMICS FOR ME!!!!

 

I see this all the time, but history tells a different tale. Once the bloom is off the speculator rose, a ton of people leave the market disgusted and even those that remain aren't buying like madmen.

 

Humans are conformists at heart, and once a large segment of the market leaves, it does have a chilling effect on the rest of us. You're suddenly no longer hanging in the hip area, you can't brag about X book being worth $X anymore, etc.

[valiantman]

That's why I collect CGC graded Valiants.

(No one would ever see it coming!)

[THE_BEYONDER]

That's why I collect CGC graded Valiants.

(No one would ever see it coming!)

 

hmmm.....

 

 

[joe_collector]

That's why I collect CGC graded Valiants.

(No one would ever see it coming!)

 

While I don't feel Valiants will ever truly come back, you've got the right idea. Don't buy into the fads, but stay on the sidelines waiting to scoop up the deals when the blood really starts flowing.

[dam60]

If I didn't collect comics.......I'd sell every last one of them today.

 

Truer words were never spoken. I am being very careful on what I buy now, and it has to be a "keeper" for me, which usually translates in early to mid-Bronze superhero books.

 

My criteria is now "if this comic were worth nothing upon resale, would it still be worth the price I paid". And to the "why don't you sell your GS X-Men #1's" crowd, I feel I got my 33-cents out of it.

 

Joe, I'm starting to get confused. If you think that the crash is emminent, why don't you slab and sell your books ASAP only to buy them back sooner, ie after this impending crash? Are you too rich that you don't need that type of "hassel" or "work" in your life?

 

DAM

[greggy]

That's why I collect CGC graded Valiants.

(No one would ever see it coming!)

 

While I don't feel Valiants will ever truly come back, you've got the right idea. Don't buy into the fads, but stay on the sidelines waiting to scoop up the deals when the blood really starts flowing.

[joe_collector]

While I don't feel Valiants will ever truly come back, you've got the right idea. Don't buy into the fads, but stay on the sidelines waiting to scoop up the deals when the blood really starts flowing.

 

Can we formally refer to this as the Forum Legend Mantra?

[joe_collector]

Joe, I'm starting to get confused. If you think that the crash is emminent, why don't you slab and sell your books ASAP only to buy them back sooner, ie after this impending crash? Are you too rich that you don't need that type of "hassel" or "work" in your life?

 

To be honest, I've been ready to submit a few times, but it is a real hassle to rummage through box after box, looking for certain issues, and then examining them closely for minute flaws, then categorizing them according to expected grade, potential resale value, etc.

 

It's far easier to just let them sit where they are.

[DiceX]

To be honest, I've been ready to submit a few times, but it is a real hassle to rummage through box after box, looking for certain issues, and then examining them closely for minute flaws, then categorizing them according to expected grade, potential resale value, etc.

 

It's far easier to just let them sit where they are.

 

And I think if there was a fecal dipstick, you would measure "full".

[dam60]

Joe, I'm starting to get confused. If you think that the crash is emminent, why don't you slab and sell your books ASAP only to buy them back sooner, ie after this impending crash? Are you too rich that you don't need that type of "hassel" or "work" in your life?

 

To be honest, I've been ready to submit a few times, but it is a real hassle to rummage through box after box, looking for certain issues, and then examining them closely for minute flaws, then categorizing them according to expected grade, potential resale value, etc.

 

It's far easier to just let them sit where they are.

 

Joe, let me tell you, I don't disagree that some of the prices being paid now are stupid money for a comic book. I base that on the lack of entrants into the hobby and the overall extremely weak economic situation coupled with the fact that when traditional investments start to look a bit more attractive the speculators will once again leave and your prophesy will be fulfilled (at least to some extent) but I just don't understand how you can always, always, always be talking about this CONSTANTLY!! It seems like you are a two trick pony - either the sky is falling or the ethics of everyone on this board are horrible beyond measure. All this negativity is really starting to wear me down.

 

DAM

 

[joe_collector]

And I think if there was a fecal dipstick, you would measure "full".

 

And on the Haven't Got a Clue meter, you're off the scale.

 

Speak to what you know. People who have dealt/traded with me know I'm not BS'ing.

[Bugaboo-migration]

.....but I just don't understand how you can always, always, always be talking about this CONSTANTLY!! It seems like you are a two trick pony - either the sky is falling or the ethics of everyone on this board are horrible beyond measure. All this negativity is really starting to wear me down.

To quote from the original "Terminator" movie:

 

"THAT'S WHAT HE DOES ! ! ............THAT'S ALL HE DOES ! ! .............AND HE WILL NOT STOP...........EVER.........UNTIL YOU ARE DEAD ! ! !"

 

Ladies and Gentlemennnnn.........Preeeee-senting........Joe_collector........The person_without_enough_empathyinator.