Speculator Risk

[joe_collector]

To give credit where it's due, I liked your point about the rising risk factor. That was interesting and insightful. Truth is, I read the thread all at once, and that point got buried really quickly (not any one person's fault, it was simply the way the thread went).

 

These threads tend to degenerate with time, but I stand by my original comments as something I've not posted before. Whether you like or dislike them, that's up to personal preference.

[drbanner]

I would suggest everyone take a look at comicsheet's Low and Mid-price ebay auction indexes by clicking here. Between June of 2002 and present, the index for CGC 9.6 "moderns" (Spidey 300, Wolverine 1, Daredevil 181 to name a few) has dropped to between 60 and 70% of peak. These days, you can buy these books slabbed in 9.4 for basically around guide, maybe a bit more. The mid-price index (Spidey 100 9.4, 121 9.2, 129 9.2, Hulk 102 9.0, Hulk 181 7.5) dipped to almost 20% below the peak around X-mas, but has pretty much recovered back to last spring/summer's levels.

 

It seems to me that for the vast majority of books, the crash has already occurred, so now must be a good time to buy!!

[joe_collector]

It seems to me that for the vast majority of books, the crash has already occurred, so now must be a good time to buy!!

 

When the Mighty Marvel Movie Machine stops churning, then it's time to buy. According to HW insiders, that's about a year off.

[valiantman]

...the index for CGC 9.6 "moderns" (Spidey 300, Wolverine 1, Daredevil 181 to name a few) has dropped to between 60 and 70% of peak. These days, you can buy these books slabbed in 9.4 for basically around guide, maybe a bit more.

I've said this before in other threads, but it's quick so I'll say it here too.

Analyzing the CGC census numbers has shown me that "investment grade"

looks like it will be:

Modern - 9.8 or better

Bronze - 9.6 or better

Silver - 9.4 or better

 

Obviously, it varies from book to book, but the "big ones" you mentioned

Spidey 300, Wolverine 1, Daredevil 181 are not only "out there"... they're "out there"

in very large quantities. Anything less than 9.8 may be treated like "VF" before long.

[dam60]

 

not in the WTC, a now condemnd building next to it.

 

That's correct...as you can see, my former employer is a real class act...NOT!!

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030911/1342000598_3.html

 

Gene

 

Gene, I read that yesterday and it made me ill. I will never willingly give business to Deutsche Bank ever!

 

DAM

[rob_react]

I cannot believe that none of the newbies find this information useful in some way, even if it's just as historical backdrop to the hobby. I have heard from some, and the comments are thankful in nature.

 

Well, I for one am all for informative posts like the one that kicked off this thread. Of course, the thread has turned into the predictable circus that it always becomes, in this case becoming "The Trial of Joe_Collector"...

 

In any case, I'm all for hearing about historical precedents that may have relevance to the current hobby environment. Even some of the uber-bulls on this Board have asked about parallels in the past for the comic book hobby or in related markets such as graded sportscards. Well, Joe delivered here, so if you want to burn him at the stake, please do it in one of the many other threads or start a special "Dunk Joe in the Water Tank" thread so not to detract from the message here.

 

Just for a little insight into this, since your own stake in this topic might be clouding your perceptions... I personally don't care what he says anymore. About anything. He could copy my opinions verbatim, post them here and I would still be praying that he'd just shut up for a minute. Seriously. It doesn't matter what he posts now, for me. Infecting 90% of the threads he posts in with digs at his obsession's du jour and creating another twenty to stir up the pot? It's like he's not satisfied until EVERYONE is drawn into his bitter, obsessive world and I for one am just tired of it. You're an intelligent guy, as you'd never let us forget , but you're a fool in at least one way if you think joe's style is going to do ANYTHING more than make him enemies. His points, however valid, have been lost in the storm he creates with his on-line personality and leave no thread unturned posting style. More simply, if people think he's an [!@#%^&^], it doesn't matter how right he is, people are not going to want to agree with an [!@#%^&^].

 

And with that- I'm going to follow Andrew Knight's lead and just give up posting here for a while. In its current condition I won't be missing much. Have fun.

[joe_collector]

I've said this before in other threads, but it's quick so I'll say it here too.

Analyzing the CGC census numbers has shown me that "investment grade"

looks like it will be:

Modern - 9.8 or better

Bronze - 9.6 or better

Silver - 9.4 or better

 

That's just an illusion. I don't want to repost my "bear in the tree" analogy, but in the face of fire, climbing higher and higher would seem to be the best route, until you actually get to the top....

[drbanner]

I've said this before in other threads, but it's quick so I'll say it here too.

Analyzing the CGC census numbers has shown me that "investment grade"

looks like it will be:

Modern - 9.8 or better

Bronze - 9.6 or better

Silver - 9.4 or better

 

Hmmm...this position seems to be in opposition to Joe and Gene's in that they're claiming the categories of books listed above are the exact books that are going to crash the hardest?

 

The Modern 9.6 and below, Bronze 9.4 and below, and Silver 9.2 and below...have already plummetted (doesn't really apply to 8.5-ish and below as there never really was a premium on these), and I'm pretty comfortable buying these types of books at around guide (which I just did in the last Heritage auction).

[dam60]

Personally I don't invest in comic books but for my cgc books I will only buy the top graded or the second copy unless I can get it for a steal. You only need two bidders for a bidding war and the odds of that are exponentially better when you have something that is indeed rare, ie a top census book.

 

Do I think that people should spend crazy money on some of these books, no, but the difference between you and me Joe, is that I respect other people's decisions to spend their money as they see fit. Again, would I advise people to continue to pay prices close to $1K for an ASM 300 in 9.8, absolutely not but will I be the first one on these boards to sit here and tell everyone what a bunch of insufficiently_thoughtful_persons they are for doing so, NO.

 

You and Gene say a lot of the same things on these boards, things that I don't disagree with. Yet Gene respects other people's right to spend their money as they see fit and you just constantly belittle people, newbies, etc. for spending $$$ on cgc books.

 

It has been mentioned before, but you could always just have a link to a thread where you highlight to newbies the dangers of investing in comics but all this rehashing is old and doesn't add anything to the argument.

 

Furthermore, Joe, if you have too much money to flip through some of your stash of big $$$ books for grading and sale (after all the crash is coming!), would you mind making me an interest free loan? Of course you wouldn't want to charge me interest because that would just be immoral and horrible and would send you straight to hell. I can secure it against anything and everything on my website. Looking for $10K, but if you can do more I'll take it!

 

DAM

[valiantman]

I've said this before in other threads, but it's quick so I'll say it here too.

Analyzing the CGC census numbers has shown me that "investment grade"

looks like it will be:

Modern - 9.8 or better

Bronze - 9.6 or better

Silver - 9.4 or better

Hmmm...this position seems to be in opposition to Joe and Gene's in that they're claiming the categories of books listed above are the exact books that are going to crash the hardest?

The CGC Census numbers don't have value associated with them...

So I'm not implying that Modern 9.8's are a good investment at any cost...

 

I'm saying that if you own Modern 9.4's, odds are that they WON'T be the books

that carry any significant weight in the future (whether prices go up or down).

[Bronty]

I believe it's called "grasping at straws" and/or "trying to sue anyone with money." CPA firms get it all the time I take it insurance did not cover the damage caused by the terrorist attacks, then?

[Bronty]

YOUR KIDDING ME RIGHT?!?!

 

Bailing!

 

How fiscally responsible of the Bush administration, to think of bailing-out other countries, while repeatedly leaving shards from the purse strings scattered all over the American continent -- LET ME ASK YOU -- DO YOU REALLY THINK 87 BILLION IS GOING TO CUT IT THIS TIME?

 

One things for sure, at 500 billion deficit, I'd be a little careful about spreading your patriotism around so bullishly -- because quite frankly, its [!@#%^&^] embarrassing that an administration is allowed to be so bloody irresponsible.

 

There's a new breed of war shaping around us my friend; and its no longer being judged by strength in military and warfare. This new world order is being dictated by strength in economy, and its a well known fact that the US is currently in no shape to be a contender.

 

Wiz, consider this: Canada's economy is utterly tied to the American economy. Virtually all of our international trade is with the USA. When Canada experiences a downturn, Canada experiences a downturn. When the US experiences a downturn, a Canadian downturn is sure to follow.

 

Moreover, there is no doubt in my mind that if terrorists blew up a Toronto highrise tomorrow, the Americans would help us out. That is not something to be taken for granted. I can't agree with anything Bush does on the simple premise that I would be agreeing with an imbecile but nontheless nations that are "98 pound weaklings" to make use of a phrase from an earlier post, have no business being smug..

 

 

[comicwiz]

I can't agree with anything Bush does on the simple premise that I would be agreeing with an imbecile but nontheless nations that are "98 pound weaklings" to make use of a phrase from an earlier post, have no business being smug..

 

Dan

 

You continue to believe what you will about the correlation between a 98 pound weakling and Canada; I consider myself fiercly proud to be Canadian, and if you've mistaken that for smugness, then I can see how an issue of esteem can get in the way of you properly expressing your own opinions about your heritage.

 

Besides, I'd sooner be mistaken as a smug Canadian, than an ethnocentric American.

[Bronty]

Pride has nothing to do with it. I'm fiercely proud to be Canadian as well. Let's not cloud the issue.

 

When I mentioned smugness, that wasn't directed at you in particular. What I was alluding to was that in my experience, some Canadians have this notion that we have some kind of god-given right to US military aid, should it ever be needed. I fault that type of presupposition just as much as I fault Americans for presupposing that they can shape the world in their own image as a logical extension of their military power.

 

If I disagreed with any part of your post, it was the tone of it - which seemed to throw the idea of US military aid, if ever required, back in their face. We haven't needed it until now and hopefully we never will but I think we enter dangerous territory (and, in a way, lose our independence) when we begin to take that the extension of that military aid for granted.

 

Think about it - 10 highrises in each of Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal, Quebec City, and Toronto bombed tomorrow. Who would we call, exactly??

 

[BronzeBruce13]

I cannot believe that none of the newbies find this information useful in some way, even if it's just as historical backdrop to the hobby. I have heard from some, and the comments are thankful in nature.

 

Well, I for one am all for informative posts like the one that kicked off this thread. Of course, the thread has turned into the predictable circus that it always becomes, in this case becoming "The Trial of Joe_Collector"...

 

In any case, I'm all for hearing about historical precedents that may have relevance to the current hobby environment. Even some of the uber-bulls on this Board have asked about parallels in the past for the comic book hobby or in related markets such as graded sportscards. Well, Joe delivered here, so if you want to burn him at the stake, please do it in one of the many other threads or start a special "Dunk Joe in the Water Tank" thread so not to detract from the message here.

 

Just for a little insight into this, since your own stake in this topic might be clouding your perceptions... I personally don't care what he says anymore. About anything. He could copy my opinions verbatim, post them here and I would still be praying that he'd just shut up for a minute. Seriously. It doesn't matter what he posts now, for me. Infecting 90% of the threads he posts in with digs at his obsession's du jour and creating another twenty to stir up the pot? It's like he's not satisfied until EVERYONE is drawn into his bitter, obsessive world and I for one am just tired of it. You're an intelligent guy, as you'd never let us forget , but you're a fool in at least one way if you think joe's style is going to do ANYTHING more than make him enemies. His points, however valid, have been lost in the storm he creates with his on-line personality and leave no thread unturned posting style. More simply, if people think he's an [!@#%^&^], it doesn't matter how right he is, people are not going to want to agree with an [!@#%^&^].

 

And with that- I'm going to follow Andrew Knight's lead and just give up posting here for a while. In its current condition I won't be missing much. Have fun.

 

 

We do feel similarly Rob.

My comments were more an "overall" take on how I feel about the current forum "climate" due in part to Vince's presence, not one that was just specific to this thread. ( I actually found some of what was not repeated elsewhere, interesting. Specifically Valiant speculation.)

 

Point is... the forum is becoming a far less enjoyable place for me personally as a result of the volume (imbalance) of criticisms/negativity and the repetitiveness of same. Its not that I can't tolerate opposing views (I think I can with the best of them while still having an open mind and showing respect). However, If the forum is to be a productive, enjoyable place (for me) there HAS to be a balance, open-minded discussions and respect for others POV's as well as a willingness to explore an idea that challenges yours. Valid points and discussions often get lost and are doomed to be repeated another day with similar futility if not. I think that's what we're seeing.. as well as the result of "fatigue of the repetition" as Joanna put it.

 

I think we need to get a permanent 'Permanent CGC Speculation/Investment Discussions" thread in the Marketplace to try and contain the subject a bit. I'm PMing Arch now. I ask others to do the same if they feel similarly. Maybe that will allow those discussions to remain available for new CGC buyers (as Vince and Gene want) as well as prevent them from infiltrating many other threads? Vince and Gene can post links to all the previous discussions and we can all continue from there? I know it may only solve "crash/market" related repetitiveness, but its a start. Maybe we'll need a permanent "CGC Policy Change Discussion" thread too down the road if those topics keep arising at the frequency they have been. Hopefully, that may allow room for more positive discussions here too and a better overall balance and "flavor" for the boards. Maybe containment/consolidation, (not silencing) will allow for that? Maybe a poll?

 

[joe_collector]

I think we need to get a permanent 'Permanent CGC Speculation/Investment Discussions" thread in the Marketplace to try and contain the subject a bit. I'm PMing Arch now.

 

Great idea, and here's some more ideas for threads that I dislike, yet til now have just moved on when seeing:

 

1) Emoticon Wars - This is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

 

2) Is X a Good Investment? - Good Riddance!!

 

3) Hulk 181 - And you talk about REPETITION?

 

4) All of Bug's Posts - I did a search on his ID and it was page after page of insults, emoticons and snarling canine photos. Boy, what a positive contributor.

[OldGuy]

Maybe that will allow those discussions to remain available for new CGC buyers (as Vince and Gene want) as well as prevent them from infiltrating many other threads? Vince and Gene can post links to all the previous discussions and we can all continue from there?

 

Or CI could just STFU after making the same point a half million times.

[comicwiz]

Think about it - 10 highrises in each of Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal, Quebec City, and Toronto bombed tomorrow. Who would we call, exactly??

 

At what cost Dan? And on what terms should Canadians accept military-aid? Surely, you don't believe Americans will do so out of benevolence? Are you willing to give up all of Canada's crude oil resources in exchange for a few scuds? Maybe lift all our tarrifs on lumber, wheat, salmon. And please, no discussion on pharmaceuticals and cattle trade, because the US won't tune-in.

 

Quid pro quo: the reality is that if you aren't ready to make some concession, or grease some plams, it just doesn't matter who you are, or what you represent on the geopolitical map; Bush is just not interested in hand-outs. And if you don't believe me, just type in "US ban Canada Trade" as your search term and you will find more than a few examples of the Bush administrations benevelont nature.

 

And that was my point from the beginning, specifcally in light of the term "bailing."

[BronzeBruce13]

I think we need to get a permanent 'Permanent CGC Speculation/Investment Discussions" thread in the Marketplace to try and contain the subject a bit. I'm PMing Arch now.

 

Great idea, and here's some more ideas for threads that I dislike, yet til now have just moved on when seeing:

 

1) Emoticon Wars - This is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

 

2) Is X a Good Investment? - Good Riddance!!

 

3) Hulk 181 - And you talk about REPETITION?

 

4) All of Bug's Posts - I did a search on his ID and it was page after page of insults, emoticons and snarling canine photos. Boy, what a positive contributor.

 

 

You've mentioned this before, and I wouldn't disagree with some of your gripes...

 

1. Emoticon wars can get out of hand and there is a point when they go too far...agreed. I feel they are generally harmless though an don't generate nearly the negative response that these "market related" threads do by those of us that have heard the message more than they care to by now.

 

2. I don't know how to stop newbies from asking these questions, nor do I want to really... I'd just direct them to the permanent thread I suggested as a solution for investment-related considerations overall. FF had a good idea... creating a new forum category that would include ALL market/investment, etc topics. That may be a dream come true for you.. and those of us that are just tired of the topic. We could choose to avoid it or participate when we want to and maybe your views will be better received since those participating will be receptive. Would you be in favor of that idea? if so, PM Arch and register your support of the idea. Not everyone wants you to STFU completely, but would like some discussions to remain free of various topics you harp on.

 

3. I'll also point out I'm VERY willing to drop Hulk 181 discussions and DON'T start those threads, but you constantly comment too.. sometimes with information that is stated as fact, but is not accurate... so I feel the need to set the record straight or offer a counter view if you come on strong with a theory. I know I've participated in some prior to your involvement, but I believe the last time I was trying to summarize the topic, point out it was over-exposed and directed others to different threads in which it was fully discussed. Trust me, I'm tired of it too. In short, If you STFU..so will I.

 

4. Bug... seems you have a personal issue with him presently. I don't need to get involved. I'll only mention that I like him and his presence here overall. I feel he's a fair-minded guy, and adds a much-needed element of "comic relief" (no pun) even if some of his posts are not comic related. I also think that from what I notice, he has certainly offered more comic-related input as of late compared to his early days. I understand this is personal preference and respect the fact that he may grate on you, but he does not annoy me at all. If the majority felt as you do, I'm sure he'd hear about it.

 

 

 

[Bronty]

Well, the real problem is the complete erosion of our military, isn't it? If we could depend on ourselves we wouldn't need to worry about greasing palms. That's the crux of the problem. Having spent six months in the (junior) Army Cadets as a kid, I can hardly begin to describe my own personal misgivings about the military, limited as my experience was. However, history has shown the military to be a necessary evil. We need to get our act together - a few rusty helicopters and some nearly-condemned destroyers do not cut it. I am not calling for us to turn to an American model of military buildup, we simply have too few people living in too large a country for that to ever work for us (i.e. you can't pay for many military bases or many advanced weapons with a population of only 30 million trying to foot the bills). However, SOME kind of marginal readiness is warranted. The jokes about Canada's army being singular (i.e "I called the Canadian army today. He wasn't home) are starting to hit too close to the truth.

 

You make good points regarding the cost of military aid. It would not be a completely altruistic act to be sure.

 

As for the use of the word bailout, I couldn't agree with you more. You'll see from the posts above that I had a bone to pick with the use of that word even before you did