Why Would Comic Prices Increase over the Next 10 Years? 0

[joe_collector]

Currently we're in a period of unprecedented price-growth for many comics, with Hollywood movies, CGC, EBay and other factors creating what I see as a "Perfect Storm" for comic prices.

 

This is certainly a great time to be a dealer (or greggy) but I'm wondering what possible factors will contribute to future growth? The movie machine is winding down (at least for Marvel/non-DC), the Census can go nowhere but up, the collector base is "graying", and we've already had a few very noticeable "market corrections" already.

 

So what factors would have you believe that comics will continue their incredible price growth in the years ahead?

[valiantman]

If we're talking in broad terms... the biggest factor will be... history.

 

Look at a price guide from 1983 and find the prices for 1973 books.

Do they go up by 1993? You bet.

 

Look at a price guide from 1993 and find the prices for 1983 books.

Have they gone up in 2003? You bet.

(How about those 1973 books? They're even higher.)

 

Look at a price guide from 2003 and find the prices for 1993 books...

What do you think they'll be in 2013? Less?

 

I don't even think it's possible for 1993 books to get any cheaper than they are today.

[drbanner]

How many angles can you come up with to start "Just Another Market Crash" thread Joe? You've been beating this topic to death for OVER A YEAR!! People are tired of it...well, everyone but you I guess?

[joe_collector]

VM, I'm talking about "real-world" prices, and not those "dealer buy at 30%" values that Bob adjusts by 10% each and every year.

 

You're talking about something I refer to as "Price Guide Fantasy" where you look back at 1986 and really believe you could have bought a NM ASM 14 for the price listed.

 

So yeah, in 10 years, Bob may still be instituting his 10% annual price increases, but will collectors be paying them for raw comics?

[Bugaboo-migration]

[jonnydouble]

[valiantman]

You're talking about something I refer to as "Price Guide Fantasy" where you look back at 1986 and really believe you could have bought a NM ASM 14 for the price listed.

Even so, a NM ASM 14 in 1986 was definitely cheaper than the same book in 1996.

[Bugaboo-migration]

 

[joe_collector]

Even so, a NM ASM 14 in 1986 was definitely cheaper than the same book in 1996.

 

Sure but the OS Guide is supposed to reflect trends, not create them. If you say prices will rise in the OS, then what will cause the OS to receive higher sales prices from dealers?

[valiantman]

Sure but the OS Guide is supposed to reflect trends, not create them. If you say prices will rise in the OS, then what will cause the OS to receive higher sales prices from dealers?

1) The guide lists important books below their actual NM trading price.

2) Because of this, actual trades occur at some multiple of guide.

3) Those sales are reported and the list price increases just a little each year.

4) Rinse, and repeat.

[joe_collector]

 

It's becoming quite apparent you're just pulling my leg, so I'll just bow out.

[musicmeta]

VM, I'm talking about "real-world" prices, and not those "dealer buy at 30%" values that Bob adjusts by 10% each and every year.

 

You're talking about something I refer to as "Price Guide Fantasy" where you look back at 1986 and really believe you could have bought a NM ASM 14 for the price listed.

 

So yeah, in 10 years, Bob may still be instituting his 10% annual price increases, but will collectors be paying them for raw comics?

 

I believe that prices will always rise on the very hard to find "in high grade" books like Action 1, Detective Comics 27, Showcase #4..etc There will always be a demand for these books.

For the rest, I still believe that a modest rise in prices will continue. While the market buyers are "graying", there will always be some to take their place.

I've always heard things like "What! XXX for that book! You've got to be kidding me!",. Ten years later, we would all jump at the chance to buy the book that cheap again.

Some books will take a nose dive, just because their prices were soley based on speculation(a movie, TV, etc) and not on the art and/or storyline.

I believe some books that look worthless today will become the high dollar books tomorrow( 15 years+), due probably to very low print runs.

All in all the comic book market will continue to survive and flourish albeit at a slower pace.

Anyway that's what I think.

 

[joe_collector]

I've always heard things like "What! XXX for that book! You've got to be kidding me!",. Ten years later, we would all jump at the chance to buy the book that cheap again.

 

Oh I agree, that's the danger of using past trends to project future ones. Do you really think stamp, coin, or sportscard collectors didn't think this same way? At a certain point in time, prices spike, demographics fade, and then it's time to send everyone home.

 

I do agree that certain GA comics like Det 27 and Action 1 have achieved a "historic importance" and have moved to the nex tier, but otherwise it's tough to see any factors for increased demand in the future.

[musicmeta]

Oh I agree, that's the danger of using past trends to project future ones. Do you really think stamp, coin, or sportscard collectors didn't think this same way? At a certain point in time, prices spike, demographics fade, and then it's time to send everyone home.

 

I do agree that certain GA comics like Det 27 and Action 1 have achieved a "historic importance" and have moved to the nex tier, but otherwise it's tough to see any factors for increased demand in the future.

 

Yes, the demographics fade, but again I believe that a new demographics will take their place, not a 1 for 1 ratio, but some will take their place. Comics will probaly see-saw(Certain comics that were once red hot are now ice cold and what was ice-cold is now getting warm). That's what I see happening in general.

I think most of the comics of the late 80's -early 90's will have a harder time to rise in value due to all that speculation that went on. The real values are the some of the comics printed today with those really low print runs. Just a small increase in demand could send some these to lofty levels(again, not now but 10-15 years from now). I think the Silver age/Bronze age books as a whole will continue to show increases year to year with maybe only a year or two of stagnant growth.

I don't know about the Golden age market, but I truly believe that this market will still continue to grow in value. I guess time will tell.

I don't think that the comic market will be all that bad nor do I believe it just keep rising to the moon either. Somewhere in the middle is where the market is going to be. I still see folks buying coins and sportscards, so even though those markets have had their problems, the markets are still going onward.

 

 

[delekkerste]

"If we're talking in broad terms... the biggest factor will be... history.

Look at a price guide from 1983 and find the prices for 1973 books.

Do they go up by 1993? You bet.

Look at a price guide from 1993 and find the prices for 1983 books.

Have they gone up in 2003? You bet."

 

"I've always heard things like "What! XXX for that book! You've got to be kidding me!",. Ten years later, we would all jump at the chance to buy the book that cheap again."

 

Look, the "where are comic prices going?" topic has been beaten to death...I wouldn't say anything, but specious arguments like these drive me up the wall. Look at it this way:

 

I went to work in downtown Manhattan on September 11, 1993...

and September 11, 1994...

and September 11, 1995...

and September 11, 1996...

and September 11, 1997...

and September 11, 1998...

and September 11, 1999...

and September 11, 2000 and all of those days were perfectly fine.

 

By linear extrapolation, I would have predicted September 11, 2001 to be no different. Of course, I would have been catastrophically mistaken. Linear extrapolation glossed over all the actions and trends that led to this unspeakable act of terrorism.

 

Similarly, looking at the past 30 years of comic prices in 10 year increments (a statistically insignificant 3 data points) and ajudging the future to be perfectly bright is a totally meaningless endeavor. We live in a non-linear world - don't expect the next 30 years to look anything like the past 30 years. Comics are in a slow, secular decline (any industry professional who isn't completely stupid or a liar will admit as much) - to gloss over that point and predict ever-rising prices would be like focusing on the leaves of a particular tree while the entire forest is burning down around you.

 

We've already had a non-linear, parabolic rise in certain segments of the market and that will likely be followed by a non-linear correction that will scare the complacency and optimism right out of you. By the end of the coming correction (whenever that may be), you'll all be thinking Joe_Collector was entirely too optimistic in his prognostications. That will be the time to put aside your fear and loathing and buy with both hands.

 

Gene

Edited September 17, 2003 by delekkerste

[joe_collector]

I still see folks buying coins and sportscards, so even though those markets have had their problems, the markets are still going onward.

 

Of course, a collectibles market doesn't dry up, as the true collectors remain no matter what. The point is always the relative demand and pricing, not the fact that people are still buying.

 

In the sportscard biz, collectors are still buying their PSA cards, but the fact remains that there are lots of PSA 10's that are selling for 1-10% of their previous high value.

 

I think comic books will be a viable hobby for many in the future, but the investment angle has been dwindling out, and I really don't see prices staying where they are. The Perfect Storm is coming to an end, and while I will maintain my collection and continue buying (where they ain't), I see no logical reason to buy an uber-expensive book now, rather than waiting for the inevitable a few years down the line.

[Foolkiller]

This is Gene's complicated way of saying that everything has a ceiling. Since I'm not as smart as Gene let me give my slightly less sophisticated version... because this is a topic we debate all the time on the boards.

 

Everything has a ceiling and eventually has to correct. yes, from 1960 to 2003, comic book values rose substantially. And there are 100 other factors to consider as to why it did. What's the primary reason the hobby was able to drive up the prices? People with money pursuing comics, which are available, the old ones, in limited supply (especially in grade). Will that condition continue to exist as the years continue. It's not the supply of books which is the question... we can reasonably calculate that... but will demand still exist? Much harder to say. As collectors with these amazing books start to die or sell off, will there be new collectors there to buy them up? Do people really think these comics are worth their current prices?

 

You can't say that the sky is the limit. That's basically what you're saying when you say, comics have constantly gone up: If you looked at Microsoft when it was first released during the first 10 years, you'd say hey, the next ten years look pretty good? No, that'd be rediculous... you know better. How come when it comes to the comic market you put the blinders on and think it's somehow different.

 

Your books aren't going to be worth pennies tomorrow... but don't invest today thinking of sending junior to college tomorrow.

[joe_collector]

By the end of the coming correction (whenever that may be), you'll all be thinking Joe_Collector was entirely too optimistic in his prognostications.

 

I know exactly what you mean. I remember chumps coming into my office, and boldly stating where the NASDAQ would be in 10 years, laughing about their "paper profits" and vowing to ride that horse to the moon.

 

When I brought up any mention of market factors virtually guaranteeing a correction, I was deemed a "negative thinker" and definitely not someone who was "in tune with the market". Not a few months later, the party ended and after a period of mourning, these same chumps were suddenly my best friends and asking for advice.

 

It'll be the same here, with few people understanding the basic framework of a collectibles market, and instead expecting the insane prices to increase and the market to sustain itself. It's never happened before and it won't happen here.

 

I do hope the fallout is not as bad as I think it will be, but as the sportscard biz has shown, all bets are off with "soft, new money" like this.

[GotToHaveComics]

Marketing: To get more people/collectors into the hobby. IMHO this is the KEY. I seldom see younger generation in the comic book stores.

 

Writers should:

1.Create good and interesting stories/ideas.

2.Create new characters that may be close to the success of Superman Batman Spiderman Wolverine.

 

Publishers should:

1.Limit Variant Covers

2.Justifiable price increase of modern books

 

Current Collectors should:

1.Promote modern books, if not, would be collectors will stay away from even starting to collect.

Majority of new collectors would usually start checking out new books from their nearby comic stores.

I doubt that the first books that they would buy are Hulk 181 and Amazing Spiderman silver age. In my own experience, I started first by buying the current Spiderman comic books (Ultimate and the current Amazing Spiderman). I enjoyed reading them so I collected other books such as Daredevil, 100 Bullets, JLA, Wolverine and then all the Ultimate Line. After a year or two, I want more than the current series, I started to dream owning the first appearances of my favorite characters and other key issues. As evidenced, majority of first appearances and key issues with outrageous prices in ebay auctions were won by newbies. You will seldom see seasoned collectors pay outrageous prices.

2.Optimistic about the future of comic books.

 

**Marketing and optimistic view of Comic Market, Newbies will drive up the comic prices***

 

 

[ninanina]

I do remember people in the 50's/60's thinking comics would NEVER be worth anything...and they were wrong. Also, later on people felt once the hi-grade collections of the Silver Age collectors flooded the market in the late 80's/90's, Silver Age prices would drop...and they were wrong. Later on people said Bronze Age comics would never be worth much...and they were wrong. Now, we have people maintaining comic prices for the most part have peaked and won't go up much more with little investment value in moderns.

 

Trends that have driven the market in the past like a surprising shortage of hi-grade Silver Age, CGC, e-bay, the 80's/90's boom have for the most part been unexpected. So, I believe surprises await us in the future that will keep the market thriving. We don't need to know what it will be, just that it will be something.

 

At one time, there were many people buying comics before the 90's crash. Many of these are coming back. The dealer I buy from has seen his clientelle that he sells new comics to increase from 150 to 240 in the last year. That's pretty positive. He is also telling me the clientelle he has are buying more issues. I believe many readers will return, they are going to want to get all those Spidermans, Hulks, Captain Americas etc. that they either sold, or they are gonna want to finish off the runs they still have. As readership dwindled dramatically in the 90's, these could be the treasures. Bottom line is you don't know. Nobody knows. The only thing we can be sure of is that something will happen to keep this hobby going. And the people that hang onto their books are going to be glad they did. As replacing them late is going to cost a fortune. If you think values are high now...

 

You ain't seen nuthin' yet!

 

Don't let the "I never see a kid at a comic store buying comics" fool you. I for one bought comics at best sporadically as a kid and did not become a serious collector till I was 25. And I also keep reading many of the collectors seem to start serious collecting at that age. Lotsa' younguns growing up. They are going to want to read/collect comics after the quit playing video games.

 

One final point:

 

Overstreet does not automatically raise prices on comics. Star Trek and Turoks have both decreased in value between 2002 and 2003. It's just two that I know of and I am sure there are more.