Are comics in their infancy compared to Coins, Stamps, and Baseball Cards?

[esquirecomics]

Coins and stamps are certainly much further along than comics in terms of the numbers of people and total dollars involved. One of the big differences is that both coins and stamps have an acceptance among investment money folks that comics is just starting to get. Coins and stamps still attract new collectors every year even with all the investment money that pours in. It doesn't detract from the enjoyment that those new collectors have in those hobbies. Just because some are beginning to look at comics as commodities doesn't mean that those who do not will enjoy collecting any less. It certainly doesn't mean that the end is near for comics.

 

As someone who has actively collected each of these collectibles, but especially comics, stamps and baseball cards, they are very different from each other though to be sure there is overlap. I have two depositions tomorrow to prepare for so can't write much now, but let me just make a couple of quick comments on stamps.

 

I love that hobby. I was probably at least as big a collector as comics, and perhaps even more so for stamps when I was a kid. I was already purchasing "investment" quality stamps back in the very early 1980s. While I only sporadically purchase stamps now I have continued to observe what is going on in the market place. In fact, I attended a very large stamp show here in DC earlier this year. The stamp market has generally been, and I would say in my opinion but I don't even believe this can be refuted, terrible for investments. The "investment" quality stamps I purchased 25 years ago, which were primarily US stamps issued during the 1920s and 1930s are actually worth less now than they were when I purchased them. That is not to say that some issues or segments of the hobby haven't proved fruitful for people, but in general they have not seen anywhere near the return that comics have developed.

 

And the hobby, and perhaps this is more of my opinion but it seemed to be reflected by who attended the show and from my conversations with dealers, has not aged well. By this I mean when you walk around the shows you see a lot of old people. I was one of the youngest at this huge show! I witnessed the same when I attended a smaller show in VA about 10 years ago. There is far more youth being brought into comic collecting than stamps, which is sad to see because the latter is a great hobby.

 

More to follow.

 

When was the great stamp crash?

 

I'm not entirely sure Richard as I took leave from the hobby, just as I did with comics (though to a lesser extent), between about 1985-1995. I don't know if I would describe it as a "crash" per se, but somewhere within that period prices not only stagnated, but even declined. Every few years I would either purchase a Scott price guide (the equivalent of Overstreet) or go to a show and compare values.

 

I'll post some specific examples of price comparisons when I can.

[bronzilla]

Your Comments make me want to end it all

[tth2]

Steve;

 

My personal take on the situation is that the realizable price of comics will never catch up to the other collectibles. Not because it is in its infancy in relationship to the other collectibles, but due more to the lack of supply out there.

 

There are just so very few exisitng HG copies of the grails in the comics hobby in comparison to the other collectibles. The ones that do exist all seems to be tied up in permanent collections. This has basically resulted in a market vacuum in the high end of the comics hobby with no supply, no sales action, and no realizable upward movements in prices.

 

This hobby is really left with speculative or extrapolated price movements based upon sale prices for inferior copies of the grails in the comics hobby. The other collectibles such as coins, stamps, and even cards does not seem to have this same supply problem.

Lou, you raise an excellent point. Unlike in stamps and cards (I don't know about coins), the holy grail of holy grails (MH Action 1) has not changed hands in more than 20 years. Similarly, the second grail (AT Detective 27) has not changed hands in the modern era either. As a result, the comic hobby hasn't had the headline generating $1+ million transaction to convince the professional money that this hobby is worth dabbling in. JP tried to pry the book out of the Dentist's hands to get some Wall St investors interested, but he couldn't do it.

 

On the other hand, I don't know if mega-dollars for the primest of the prime would necessarily filter down and lift the prices of all comics. We see the record prices being generated on the Honus Wagner card, but my impression is that the market has not been nearly as strong for other primo vintage baseball cards. I'm no expert, so I'd be glad to hear the views of those who know the sports card market better. Has a NM Joe DiMaggio or Ted Williams rookie card appreciated as quickly as the Wagner has? How about for other Hall of Fame players from the early days but who don't have quite the same level of name recognition today, such as a Jimmy Foxx, Hank Greenberg or Rogers Hornsby? Have their prices held up/appreciated?

[delekkerste]

What do you guys think.....how does the comic book market compare to other collectibles markets? Are we really only in our 'infancy' as I have been hearing for years, with tremendous room for growth and unheard of appreciation for the "big books"?

 

There is NFW that the comic book market is "only in [its] infancy". There have been price guides out for almost 40 years, comic conventions for the same, conservation materials being mass-marketed for 30 years and nowadays we have had professional grading going on for almost a decade now (with even a few competitors having sprung up in the interim). There are even businesses like GPAnalysis being supported by this mature market and an entire dealer community as well. Meanwhile, circulation of new books is at a fraction of both its Golden Age peak and even the recent early 1990s bubble which helped take down numerous brick-and-mortar LCS's in the ensuing crash.

 

Comic collecting will not go away in our lifetimes, maybe ever, but its heyday has surely passed. Back when I was in elementary school and junior high, there weren't a lot of hobby options out there for clean-cut, book-smart kids - baseball cards, comic books, Dungeons & Dragons maybe. The world has changed, it isn't the 1940s-1980s anymore and nor should we pretend that it is. I firmly believe that those of us in our 30s and 40s are the last golden generation of comic book collectors. Sure, there are kids, teens and 20-somethings out there collecting as well, but nowhere near in the numbers/percentages that those of us who grew up in the 1970s and 1980s are collecting.

 

I think, due to the inherent nature of comic books (re: aimed at kids and young adults, at least for most vintage material), that perhaps the "graying" of the hobby won't be as severe as Esquirecomics described for the stamp collecting hobby (which is absolutely true - do some Google searches on the state of that hobby today, but be sure to bring your Prozac so as not to be overwhelmed with depression afterwards).

 

None of this is to say that the big books of our hobby can't continue to escalate in value - just look at the baseball card market where the rare, super high grade, highly coveted cards still fetch top dollar. However, it is a two-tiered market where deep-pocketed 40 and 50-somethings throw a lot of money at the high end and everything else sells for prices that look cheap compared to a lot of comic book and OA prices I see nowadays. I wouldn't doubt that our hobby could evolve in a similar fashion - thoughts?

[The Black Hand ®]

...Man I hope so!

With todays already high prices on comics, just think what the future will bring if our hobby really is in its infancy compared to other established collectibles markets, with their multi-million dollar "grails".

What do you guys think.....how does the comic book market compare to other collectibles markets? Are we really only in our 'infancy' as I have been hearing for years, with tremendous room for growth and unheard of appreciation for the "big books"?

 

Steve

 

I think comics are near the end! After all....they're just decaying paper. Ready to fall apart in our hands.

Vince ( glass half empty guy)

[Jeffro.]

...Man I hope so!

With todays already high prices on comics, just think what the future will bring if our hobby really is in its infancy compared to other established collectibles markets, with their multi-million dollar "grails".

 

 

Steve

 

 

For the sake of the little guy who just wants to own some decent books and who will never, barring that power ball win, be able to afford the truly big ticket items, I hope you're not correct.

[joe_collector]

If I can speak for aman here...it isn't that we dislike the answers, it is that we think they are so pathetically useless to the discussion that we can't understand why you even give them.

 

Yes, the first place I go to get my comic book market advice is a COMIC BOOK DEALER.

 

[Mr. Zipper]

What do you guys think.....how does the comic book market compare to other collectibles markets? Are we really only in our 'infancy' as I have been hearing for years, with tremendous room for growth and unheard of appreciation for the "big books"?

 

There is NFW that the comic book market is "only in [its] infancy". There have been price guides out for almost 40 years, comic conventions for the same, conservation materials being mass-marketed for 30 years and nowadays we have had professional grading going on for almost a decade now (with even a few competitors having sprung up in the interim). There are even businesses like GPAnalysis being supported by this mature market and an entire dealer community as well. Meanwhile, circulation of new books is at a fraction of both its Golden Age peak and even the recent early 1990s bubble which helped take down numerous brick-and-mortar LCS's in the ensuing crash.

 

Comic collecting will not go away in our lifetimes, maybe ever, but its heyday has surely passed. Back when I was in elementary school and junior high, there weren't a lot of hobby options out there for clean-cut, book-smart kids - baseball cards, comic books, Dungeons & Dragons maybe. The world has changed, it isn't the 1940s-1980s anymore and nor should we pretend that it is. I firmly believe that those of us in our 30s and 40s are the last golden generation of comic book collectors. Sure, there are kids, teens and 20-something out there collecting as well, but nowhere near in the numbers/percentages that those of us who grew up in the 1970s and 1980s are collecting.

 

I think, due to the inherent nature of comic books (re: aimed at kids and young adults, at least for most vintage material), that perhaps the "graying" of the hobby won't be as severe as Esquirecomics described for the stamp collecting hobby (which is absolutely true - do some Google searches on the state of that hobby today, but be sure to bring your Prozac so as not to be overwhelmed with depression afterwards).

 

None of this is to say that the big books of our hobby can't continue to escalate in value - just look at the baseball card market where the rare, super high grade, highly coveted cards still fetch top dollar. However, it is a two-tiered market where deep-pocketed 40 and 50-somethings throw a lot of money at the high end and everything else sells for prices that look cheap compared to a lot of comic book and OA prices I see nowadays. I wouldn't doubt that our hobby could evolve in a similar fashion - thoughts?

 

Gene nails it again.

 

In regard to the bolded portion of the quote, aren't we almost there now? There is a huge gulf between HG and everything else... with "everything else" getting closer to "worthless" every day.

[The Black Hand ®]

I think that all the action in this hobby is with the support groups and the press and flip artist. CGC, Heritage and other auction houses, restoration and conservation services and the few people who are quick on the draw. I see the whole high grade comic trade as a pyramid scheme and only a select few are going to make the big bucks. As with a lot of investments, it takes money to make money.

[whetteon]

This debate has been going on as long as this forum has been around. The particular problem with this argument is that the JC and Delek's only have to prove their argument once where the more upbeat posters have to prove the market isn't crashing year after year after nauseating year.

 

I've heard similar arguement about the collapse of America economy or the day the world is going to end. [incidentally I believe the new date is 2012 for those who bother to keep track]. I guess if you keep preaching your gloom and doom, one day you'll have to be right and then on that day you can jump up and down and tell us 'See, see! I was right all along. Nah, nah, na-na, nah'.

[tth2]

There is NFW that the comic book market is "only in [its] infancy". There have been price guides out for almost 40 years, comic conventions for the same, conservation materials being mass-marketed for 30 years and nowadays we have had professional grading going on for almost a decade now (with even a few competitors having sprung up in the interim).

Yes, but as you`re fond of pointing out, comics were only worth peanuts until the last 5 or 6 years. So while the hobby may have been around for a long time, as a high-end hobby it`s still relatively young. In fact, given that no comic book has broken the $500K barrier yet, let alone the headline-grabbing $1 million barrier, I would say it`s not even a high-end hobby yet.

[joe_collector]

I've heard similar arguement about the collapse of America economy or the day the world is going to end.

 

Great comparison. (thumbs u

[The Black Hand ®]

This debate has been going on as long as this forum has been around. The particular problem with this argument is that the JC and Delek's only have to prove their argument once where the more upbeat posters have to prove the market isn't crashing year after year after nauseating year.

 

I've heard similar arguement about the collapse of America economy or the day the world is going to end. [incidentally I believe the new date is 2012 for those who bother to keep track]. I guess if you keep preaching your gloom and doom, one day you'll have to be right and then on that day you can jump up and down and tell us 'See, see! I was right all along. Nah, nah, na-na, nah'.

 

I've never said anything about a crash, just a slow squeeze. As with the economy, the middle class is being squeezed out, like the average collector, by the high end speculators.... and the trickle down is not occuring. The hobby, like the economy, has been co-opted by the few and manipulated to suit them. Look at the damage done to some neighborhoods by house flippers, look at the loss of manufacturing jobs...the demise of unions....you can draw some comparisons here......greed plays a big part in a lot of this, not just economic evolution. We....all of us.. along with our funny book....in the end....are doomed.

[MrBedrock]

If I can speak for aman here...it isn't that we dislike the answers, it is that we think they are so pathetically useless to the discussion that we can't understand why you even give them.

 

Yes, the first place I go to get my comic book market advice is a COMIC BOOK DEALER.

 

 

Which comic dealer was it that told you the hobby of comic collecting was doomed? I bet it is a blast shopping with him.

[joe_collector]

Which comic dealer was it that told you the hobby of comic collecting was doomed?

 

Exactly my point. The LAST person you should be asking for advice, is the guy taking money from your wallet.

[MrBedrock]

Which comic dealer was it that told you the hobby of comic collecting was doomed?

 

Exactly my point. The LAST person you should be asking for advice, is the guy taking money from your wallet.

 

Only if the money is more important to you than the comics you are getting in exchange.

[The Black Hand ®]

I'm going to hand out some good advice.

 

Spend less than you earn.

Save at least 15%-20% of your income.Start now

Pack a lunch. Avoid eating out.

Excercise daily.

Take advantage if IRA's and 401k's and contribute the maximum.

Be faithful to your spouse.

Treat others the way you wish to be treated.

Stop watching so much porn.

If you support our president, then join the service and help clean up the mess.

Read your comics.

 

 

[joe_collector]

Only if the money is more important to you than the comics you are getting in exchange.

 

Of course, but I have heard mentioned on here many times, that every collector involved in the high-grade, big-$$$ comic book market is concerned with resale value.

 

Or do you disagree, and think that no one would care if their collections were worth pennies on the dollar in a few years?

[G.A.tor]

for there to be a " crash", you have to assume that folks have "invested" in this market purely for profit motive (I certainly don't see that as being the overwhelming drive behind our hobby, do you all? sure there is likely a small segment, but enough to move an entire hobby?...heck, the early 90's couldn't kill the market, and there was strong evidence that speculators artificially created demand...i certainly don't see that today), versus what is more likely the scenario, that it is fans that collect because they love/enjoy the hobby, and fans that are generally in it for the "long" haul....

 

like any "market" though, everything is cyclical, and sure there will be ups and downs in the pricing of comics, but it is more likely just corrections that will be made as the old leave, and the new enter...

 

but, to forecast a crash, you would have to have some tangible indicators of such, versus just a biased opinion...I don't see any of those indicators, so I am curious what you (jc) base your opinion on...and don't point to "there are no young folks" entering, etc, because I see a lot of evidence to the contrary...most collectors don't just collect for a year, they collect for life...so all of the 30's and 40's and 50 year old that are collecting now, will likely still be collecting for decades to come...

thanks

gator

[jools&jim]

Anybody who's been around the hobby for at least a few decades knows it ain't what it was (then again, what is?), and that we've lost a few very precious things along the way for everything we've supposedly gained. There's certainly more money changing hands these days, and faster, too...that's for sure. Will that add up to a big crash? Who knows? But such things do happen from time to time in other contexts when markets expand, investors are attracted to quick money, and large sums of cash change hands so quickly that nobody has a good or realistic sense of the bigger picture, and where everyone believes that they'll be the guy holding the big bag of cash at the end of the line, instead of getting stuck with the big stack of brightly colored paper...