Magnus Robot Fighter #12 cgc 9.8.........

[worldsbestcomics]

According to your website, there are 50,000 copies in existence. Assuming that there is only a 2.5% chance of any one particular book is a 9.8 that still leaves you with 1207 copies out there waiting to be discovered.

 

So for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 to either increase or maintain its price you need 1) a willing buyer and 2) a willing seller. Since we just agreed that $250 is a great incentive to find and grade a 9.8, I can say that point 2 has been meet. But I have a hard time believing there are 1207 buyers out there for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 at $250. Heck, I have a hard time believing there are 1207 buyers for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 at any price above slabbing cost.

 

But lets cut those numbers down due to 9.8's 'never reaching the light of day' for a variety of reasons. How about 200 copies in 5 more years. Not even 1/5 of what's out there..Will the their be enough buyers to support a $250 price tag? 200 copies in 9.8 shows that a particular book in a particular grade isn't really all that rare. It simple becomes a demand market because there's plenty of supply

 

Also we have to look at that 2.5% modifier. Is that based on all averages in the comic industry? Because 1990 books have the privilege to be treated with kid gloves when they first came out so I'd expect an even higher modifier.

 

You know I love Valiants Greg but I just wanted to play devils advocate and stir the pot a little.

 

I'll play There are two interesting assumptions in your argument.

 

One hidden assumption is that the percentage of high-grade books out there "waiting to be discovered" is equal to the percentage of books submitted up until now. I think it could be reasonably argued that there would be a bias toward higher-grade books being submitted sooner, rather than at a steady rate. CGC has been around for 8 years so there has been plenty of time of someone with a "mint" Magnus 12 to get it graded. It would be interesting to look at the 9.8 population over the past 8 years to see if it has grown at a steady rate.

 

The second is your statement that 1990 books have been treated with kid gloves. I think that there is some truth to that if you are talking about mainstream titles that are routinely "collected" like Uncanny X-Men or Amazing Spider-Man. But, virtually none of the pre-Unity Valiants were being bagged and boarded and boxed away without ever being read. These books have been considered relatively scarce in high-grade (when compared to mainstream titles) from the very first because they were under the radar until Unity.

[COMICKINGS]

And add that after Valiant tanked in the mid-'90's..lots of these high dollar pre-Unity books could be found in $1 boxes from the late '90's til about 2003/4..(and even still,once in awhile!) I've had plenty copies,and love to CGC my stuff,but have never come across a nice Magnus #12.

 

I would bet you don't see the census going up that much at the 9.8 level in the next couple years on this issue. The hoards have been pilfered for high grade stuff,and I don't think there are big stashes of it waiting to be discovered anywhere out there. When it was a $100 book back in the day,and when they started to drop in price,I think most of them got spread around pretty good then.

[valiantman]

According to your website, there are 50,000 copies in existence. Assuming that there is only a 2.5% chance of any one particular book is a 9.8 that still leaves you with 1207 copies out there waiting to be discovered.

 

So for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 to either increase or maintain its price you need 1) a willing buyer and 2) a willing seller. Since we just agreed that $250 is a great incentive to find and grade a 9.8, I can say that point 2 has been meet. But I have a hard time believing there are 1207 buyers out there for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 at $250. Heck, I have a hard time believing there are 1207 buyers for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 at any price above slabbing cost.

 

But lets cut those numbers down due to 9.8's 'never reaching the light of day' for a variety of reasons. How about 200 copies in 5 more years. Not even 1/5 of what's out there..Will the their be enough buyers to support a $250 price tag? 200 copies in 9.8 shows that a particular book in a particular grade isn't really all that rare. It simple becomes a demand market because there's plenty of supply

 

Also we have to look at that 2.5% modifier. Is that based on all averages in the comic industry? Because 1990 books have the privilege to be treated with kid gloves when they first came out so I'd expect an even higher modifier.

 

You know I love Valiants Greg but I just wanted to play devils advocate and stir the pot a little.

 

(thumbs u

 

Let's look at another book that is important enough to get sellers/submitters active...

Amazing Spider-man #300.

 

It is from 1988 and it was hoarded/protected by lots of people from the day it came out.

 

Spider-man has had three major movies, is a household name,

and this book is the most submitted in CGC history.

 

According to the Standard Catalog of Comic Books, there were 271,000 copies

of each 1988 Amazing Spider-man book in circulation. Since #300 is a milestone,

it's safe to say that there were at least 300,000 copies printed.

 

Amazing Spider-man #300 has been selling for more

than $500 in CGC 9.8 since at least June 2002...

five and a half years ago. Prices have been closer to

(or over) $1,000 since June 2006.

 

So... how much of the print run has been sent to CGC in the past 8 years? 4,464 copies.

That's 1.5%.

 

1.5% of the print run is the all-time most popular submission to CGC.

 

98.5% aren't in slabs. They aren't going to be slabbed tomorrow, next year,

or even next decade. Despite the popularity, the three Spider-man movies,

the lure of $1,000 for a CGC 9.8 copy... the book is only 1.5% slabbed.

 

156 copies are CGC 9.8. 156 out of 300,000. 0.05%... or 99.95% not CGC 9.8.

(Some of that 99.95% could be CGC 9.8, but they aren't yet... even after 8 years.)

 

If a book like Amazing Spider-man #300... hoarded from day one...

3 movies... $1.1Billion in ticket sales just in the U.S...

300,000 copies in existence... $1,000 for a CGC 9.8 graded copy...

can only "lure" 1.5% of the print run to CGC...

 

Then Magnus #12, 183 copies graded... 0.37% of the print run...

would probably need three major movies, and a $1,000 price tag for CGC 9.8

just to get to 750 copies submitted to CGC.

 

Assuming Magnus #12's current CGC 9.8 rate of 23.8% were to remain constant,

and somehow it's relative popularity could rise to match Amazing Spider-man #300...

there would be 179 copies in CGC 9.8.

 

So, after three movies that gross $1.1Billion domestic...

Magnus and/or Turok MIGHT be popular enough for there

to be 179 copies in CGC 9.8.

 

Even though I'm a really big fan of Valiant comics...

I will admit that Magnus #12 will not be that popular in 5 years...

or 10 years... or even 25 years... and the number of Magnus #12

in CGC 9.8 slabs will probably remain far below 179 for a loooong time.

 

179 out of 50,000. 0.37% in CGC 9.8 slabs... IF it became that popular.

At that time, 99.63% of the print run would still not be in CGC 9.8 slabs.

 

My estimate of 97.5% being non-CGC 9.8s was actually too low.

 

(thumbs u

[mister_not_so_nice]

But, virtually none of the pre-Unity Valiants were being bagged and boarded and boxed away without ever being read . These books have been considered relatively scarce in high-grade (when compared to mainstream titles) from the very first because they were under the radar until Unity.

 

VALIANTs were/are all about reading.

 

Here's my reader copy (thumbs u

[COMICKINGS]

According to your website, there are 50,000 copies in existence. Assuming that there is only a 2.5% chance of any one particular book is a 9.8 that still leaves you with 1207 copies out there waiting to be discovered.

 

So for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 to either increase or maintain its price you need 1) a willing buyer and 2) a willing seller. Since we just agreed that $250 is a great incentive to find and grade a 9.8, I can say that point 2 has been meet. But I have a hard time believing there are 1207 buyers out there for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 at $250. Heck, I have a hard time believing there are 1207 buyers for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 at any price above slabbing cost.

 

But lets cut those numbers down due to 9.8's 'never reaching the light of day' for a variety of reasons. How about 200 copies in 5 more years. Not even 1/5 of what's out there..Will the their be enough buyers to support a $250 price tag? 200 copies in 9.8 shows that a particular book in a particular grade isn't really all that rare. It simple becomes a demand market because there's plenty of supply

 

Also we have to look at that 2.5% modifier. Is that based on all averages in the comic industry? Because 1990 books have the privilege to be treated with kid gloves when they first came out so I'd expect an even higher modifier.

 

You know I love Valiants Greg but I just wanted to play devils advocate and stir the pot a little.

 

(thumbs u

 

Let's look at another book that is important enough to get sellers/submitters active...

Amazing Spider-man #300.

 

It is from 1988 and it was hoarded/protected by lots of people from the day it came out.

 

Spider-man has had three major movies, is a household name,

and this book is the most submitted in CGC history.

 

According to the Standard Catalog of Comic Books, there were 271,000 copies

of each 1988 Amazing Spider-man book in circulation. Since #300 is a milestone,

it's safe to say that there were at least 300,000 copies printed.

 

Amazing Spider-man #300 has been selling for more

than $500 in CGC 9.8 since at least June 2002...

five and a half years ago. Prices have been closer to

(or over) $1,000 since June 2006.

 

So... how much of the print run has been sent to CGC in the past 8 years? 4,464 copies.

That's 1.5%.

 

1.5% of the print run is the all-time most popular submission to CGC.

 

98.5% aren't in slabs. They aren't going to be slabbed tomorrow, next year,

or even next decade. Despite the popularity, the three Spider-man movies,

the lure of $1,000 for a CGC 9.8 copy... the book is only 1.5% slabbed.

 

156 copies are CGC 9.8. 156 out of 300,000. 0.05%... or 99.95% not CGC 9.8.

(Some of that 99.95% could be CGC 9.8, but they aren't yet... even after 8 years.)

 

If a book like Amazing Spider-man #300... hoarded from day one...

3 movies... $1.1Billion in ticket sales just in the U.S...

300,000 copies in existence... $1,000 for a CGC 9.8 graded copy...

can only "lure" 1.5% of the print run to CGC...

 

Then Magnus #12, 183 copies graded... 0.37% of the print run...

would probably need three major movies, and a $1,000 price tag for CGC 9.8

just to get to 750 copies submitted to CGC.

 

Assuming Magnus #12's current CGC 9.8 rate of 23.8% were to remain constant,

and somehow it's relative popularity could rise to match Amazing Spider-man #300...

there would be 179 copies in CGC 9.8.

 

So, after three movies that gross $1.1Billion domestic...

Magnus and/or Turok MIGHT be popular enough for there

to be 179 copies in CGC 9.8.

 

Even though I'm a really big fan of Valiant comics...

I will admit that Magnus #12 will not be that popular in 5 years...

or 10 years... or even 25 years... and the number of Magnus #12

in CGC 9.8 slabs will probably remain far below 179 for a loooong time.

 

179 out of 50,000. 0.37% in CGC 9.8 slabs... IF it became that popular.

At that time, 99.63% of the print run would still not be in CGC 9.8 slabs.

 

My estimate of 97.5% being non-CGC 9.8s was actually too low.

 

(thumbs u

 

The Amazing #300 is a tough book to get 9.8 on. The back cover is black and brother,it shows everything! Also it's a double issue and the spine chips at the the top & bottom of the spine are pretty frequent.There was problem with production too.I have had,and seen,many issues with the rag-ged edge on the right edge of the cover.

 

 

[valiantman]

According to your website, there are 50,000 copies in existence. Assuming that there is only a 2.5% chance of any one particular book is a 9.8 that still leaves you with 1207 copies out there waiting to be discovered.

 

So for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 to either increase or maintain its price you need 1) a willing buyer and 2) a willing seller. Since we just agreed that $250 is a great incentive to find and grade a 9.8, I can say that point 2 has been meet. But I have a hard time believing there are 1207 buyers out there for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 at $250. Heck, I have a hard time believing there are 1207 buyers for a Magnus 12 CGC 9.8 at any price above slabbing cost.

 

But lets cut those numbers down due to 9.8's 'never reaching the light of day' for a variety of reasons. How about 200 copies in 5 more years. Not even 1/5 of what's out there..Will the their be enough buyers to support a $250 price tag? 200 copies in 9.8 shows that a particular book in a particular grade isn't really all that rare. It simple becomes a demand market because there's plenty of supply

 

Also we have to look at that 2.5% modifier. Is that based on all averages in the comic industry? Because 1990 books have the privilege to be treated with kid gloves when they first came out so I'd expect an even higher modifier.

 

You know I love Valiants Greg but I just wanted to play devils advocate and stir the pot a little.

 

(thumbs u

 

Let's look at another book that is important enough to get sellers/submitters active...

Amazing Spider-man #300.

 

It is from 1988 and it was hoarded/protected by lots of people from the day it came out.

 

Spider-man has had three major movies, is a household name,

and this book is the most submitted in CGC history.

 

According to the Standard Catalog of Comic Books, there were 271,000 copies

of each 1988 Amazing Spider-man book in circulation. Since #300 is a milestone,

it's safe to say that there were at least 300,000 copies printed.

 

Amazing Spider-man #300 has been selling for more

than $500 in CGC 9.8 since at least June 2002...

five and a half years ago. Prices have been closer to

(or over) $1,000 since June 2006.

 

So... how much of the print run has been sent to CGC in the past 8 years? 4,464 copies.

That's 1.5%.

 

1.5% of the print run is the all-time most popular submission to CGC.

 

98.5% aren't in slabs. They aren't going to be slabbed tomorrow, next year,

or even next decade. Despite the popularity, the three Spider-man movies,

the lure of $1,000 for a CGC 9.8 copy... the book is only 1.5% slabbed.

 

156 copies are CGC 9.8. 156 out of 300,000. 0.05%... or 99.95% not CGC 9.8.

(Some of that 99.95% could be CGC 9.8, but they aren't yet... even after 8 years.)

 

If a book like Amazing Spider-man #300... hoarded from day one...

3 movies... $1.1Billion in ticket sales just in the U.S...

300,000 copies in existence... $1,000 for a CGC 9.8 graded copy...

can only "lure" 1.5% of the print run to CGC...

 

Then Magnus #12, 183 copies graded... 0.37% of the print run...

would probably need three major movies, and a $1,000 price tag for CGC 9.8

just to get to 750 copies submitted to CGC.

 

Assuming Magnus #12's current CGC 9.8 rate of 23.8% were to remain constant,

and somehow it's relative popularity could rise to match Amazing Spider-man #300...

there would be 179 copies in CGC 9.8.

 

So, after three movies that gross $1.1Billion domestic...

Magnus and/or Turok MIGHT be popular enough for there

to be 179 copies in CGC 9.8.

 

Even though I'm a really big fan of Valiant comics...

I will admit that Magnus #12 will not be that popular in 5 years...

or 10 years... or even 25 years... and the number of Magnus #12

in CGC 9.8 slabs will probably remain far below 179 for a loooong time.

 

179 out of 50,000. 0.37% in CGC 9.8 slabs... IF it became that popular.

At that time, 99.63% of the print run would still not be in CGC 9.8 slabs.

 

My estimate of 97.5% being non-CGC 9.8s was actually too low.

 

(thumbs u

 

The Amazing #300 is a tough book to get 9.8 on. The back cover is black and brother,it shows everything! Also it's a double issue and the spine chips at the the top & bottom of the spine are pretty frequent.There was problem with production too.I have had,and seen,many issues with the rag-ged edge on the right edge of the cover.

 

 

That's why there are only 156 in CGC 9.8 out of 4,464 submissions.

I took that into consideration in my post... Magnus #12 has 23.8% in CGC 9.8,

and that's a significantly higher percentage than ASM #300...

but it doesn't change anything I said. It was already included. (thumbs u

 

ASM #300 total number of CGC 9.8 (thus far) - 0.05% of the print run (99.95% non-CGC 9.8)

Magnus #12 total number of CGC 9.8 (if it could become as popular as ASM #300)

would be 0.37% of the print run... 7 times more frequent than ASM #300...

and there would still be 99.63% of the Magnus #12 print run that was non-CGC 9.8.

 

(Disclaimer: I'm not saying that it's a good investment or a bad investment,

but I am saying that there won't be 200 CGC 9.8 Magnus #12s on the census

for a loooooong time.)

[worldsbestcomics]

But, virtually none of the pre-Unity Valiants were being bagged and boarded and boxed away without ever being read . These books have been considered relatively scarce in high-grade (when compared to mainstream titles) from the very first because they were under the radar until Unity.

 

VALIANTs were/are all about reading.

 

Here's my reader copy (thumbs u

 

Nicely done Mr. Not So Nice (thumbs u I admire a guy who can read his books and still get a 9.8. I love it when one of my "readers" still gets a 9.8.

[worldsbestcomics]

I listed my book in the sales forum so we'll see if any of this analysis pays off (thumbs u

[worldsbestcomics]

I sold the book to a Valiant-collecting buddy for my asking price of $195 and judging by the response there is still plenty of demand for this book.

[He11blazer]

I think I have a couple of them!

 

In about VF/NM...

 

 

[whetteon]

I sold the book to a Valiant-collecting buddy for my asking price of $195 and judging by the response there is still plenty of demand for this book.

 

Well there's the proof on demand! Looks like a nice book to own CGC'ed. Glad I own a copy too.