Do low census numbers truly indicate scarcity or simply low popularity/interest?

[alecholland]

Well as regards non superhero books ... sure

 

I'm sure there are 1950s Dells that are very plentiful, as we all know, but who is going to send these in.

 

 

How about, for example, Walt Disney Comics & Stories - Barks issues after issue 100? Some of the top census copies are 9.0 or lower with very few submissions. Is this just a case of lack of interest in those books, or knowledge that higher grade raw copies are plentiful, or are they actually tough to find in higher grades?

[GACollectibles]

Well as regards non superhero books ... sure

 

I'm sure there are 1950s Dells that are very plentiful, as we all know, but who is going to send these in.

 

 

How about, for example, Walt Disney Comics & Stories - Barks issues after issue 100? Some of the top census copies are 9.0 or lower with very few submissions. Is this just a case of lack of interest in those books, or knowledge that higher grade raw copies are plentiful, or are they actually tough to find in higher grades?

 

The obsession with uber-high grade books(9.6 up) is no where near as prevelant in the GA market, and I believe we can safely assume there less existing copies than of WDCS pre-#100 than, let's say, X-Men #212 and again, a number of GA enthusiasts have no desire to slab their books. It's a different collecting philosophy.

 

Your origional question might be better answered being split up into different eras, and then (particularly in SA on up) addressing scaricty in grade(as the fine Dr mentioned).

 

And if you you rephrase the question, please add the crack option!

[pennynike1]

The census is a good tool in determining scarcity in grade for submitted books, but not the scarcity of a book in general. People who use that in advertising are just trying to make a bigger buck.

 

As a person who only collects high grade GA, that usually means that I paid a premium for that highest graded book. So, I don't think people who note the fact that a book is the highest grade is necessary just wanting to get "a bigger buck." There certainly is some of that going around, but there are so few books on the census for GA in general. For me, It is more: "I paid a ton for this book, so I am looking to get back what I paid."

 

Since there are very few graded books in GA at 9.0 or above, I think the census is a pretty good indicator of the "relative" scarcity of a book in high grade. However, I know for certain that there are high grade raw copies out there, but you have to factor that in when purchasing.

[DrWatson]

The census is a good tool in determining scarcity in grade for submitted books, but not the scarcity of a book in general. People who use that in advertising are just trying to make a bigger buck.

 

As a person who only collects high grade GA, that usually means that I paid a premium for that highest graded book. So, I don't think people who note the fact that a book is the highest grade is necessary just wanting to get "a bigger buck." There certainly is some of that going around, but there are so few books on the census for GA in general. For me, It is more: "I paid a ton for this book, so I am looking to get back what I paid."

 

Since there are very few graded books in GA at 9.0 or above, I think the census is a pretty good indicator of the "relative" scarcity of a book in high grade. However, I know for certain that there are high grade raw copies out there, but you have to factor that in when purchasing.

In keeping with what GACollectibles mentioned earlier, it is hard to apply every comment and situation to all eras of collecting. When you apply the tag line "only 3 9.8s on the census" to an X-Men 369, then all it amounts to is the "bigger buck" factor.

[trmoore54]

Low census numbers mean low submissions. It is not necessarily an indicator of scarcity. There could be thousands of raw books out there.

 

That's exactly what I was going to post.

 

It's gotta be a little bit of both...certainly with the most popular GA & SA Titles, it would imply scarcity (For example, on another thread where the poster was asking for GPA for TOS 7, 11, 12 & 14...the #7 has only one 9.0 and 1 in 7.5 so to me that would suggest true scarcity)...

[DrWatson]

Low census numbers mean low submissions. It is not necessarily an indicator of scarcity. There could be thousands of raw books out there.

 

That's exactly what I was going to post.

 

It's gotta be a little bit of both...certainly with the most popular GA & SA Titles, it would imply scarcity (For example, on another thread where the poster was asking for GPA for TOS 7, 11, 12 & 14...the #7 has only one 9.0 and 1 in 7.5 so to me that would suggest true scarcity)...

Yes, but is there a large enough demand for the pre-hero TOS books to warrant people having them slabbed?

[CAP Freak]

Well as regards non superhero books ... sure

 

I'm sure there are 1950s Dells that are very plentiful, as we all know, but who is going to send these in.

 

lonelybooks.

[TheWatcher]

Low census numbers mean low submissions. It is not necessarily an indicator of scarcity. There could be thousands of raw books out there.

 

That's exactly what I was going to post.

 

It's gotta be a little bit of both...certainly with the most popular GA & SA Titles, it would imply scarcity (For example, on another thread where the poster was asking for GPA for TOS 7, 11, 12 & 14...the #7 has only one 9.0 and 1 in 7.5 so to me that would suggest true scarcity)...

Yes, but is there a large enough demand for the pre-hero TOS books to warrant people having them slabbed?

 

I sure hope so

 

TOS 9

[GACollectibles]

Well as regards non superhero books ... sure

 

I'm sure there are 1950s Dells that are very plentiful, as we all know, but who is going to send these in.

 

lonelybooks.

 

Read/respond to my PM please!

[DrWatson]

Low census numbers mean low submissions. It is not necessarily an indicator of scarcity. There could be thousands of raw books out there.

 

That's exactly what I was going to post.

 

It's gotta be a little bit of both...certainly with the most popular GA & SA Titles, it would imply scarcity (For example, on another thread where the poster was asking for GPA for TOS 7, 11, 12 & 14...the #7 has only one 9.0 and 1 in 7.5 so to me that would suggest true scarcity)...

Yes, but is there a large enough demand for the pre-hero TOS books to warrant people having them slabbed?

 

I sure hope so

 

TOS 9

Is that yours, Bubba?

[TheWatcher]

Low census numbers mean low submissions. It is not necessarily an indicator of scarcity. There could be thousands of raw books out there.

 

That's exactly what I was going to post.

 

It's gotta be a little bit of both...certainly with the most popular GA & SA Titles, it would imply scarcity (For example, on another thread where the poster was asking for GPA for TOS 7, 11, 12 & 14...the #7 has only one 9.0 and 1 in 7.5 so to me that would suggest true scarcity)...

Yes, but is there a large enough demand for the pre-hero TOS books to warrant people having them slabbed?

 

I sure hope so

 

TOS 9

Is that yours, Bubba?

 

Yups. Along with a few others

[valiantman]

Two variables determine census numbers:

 

1) Price

2) Availability

 

As a result, census numbers should be HIGHEST for books that are BOTH valuable AND available...

Amazing Spider-man #300, Incredible Hulk #181, etc.

 

Census numbers should be LOWEST for books that are NEITHER valuable NOR available.

(Thousands of comics are hard to find, but essentially worthless... with no copies graded by CGC.)

 

Because there are two variables, the census numbers between zero and 4,464

(currently the highest submitted book) only tell us what MIGHT be happening.

 

If a book only has 15 copies graded at this moment...

it could be tnat few were submitted because it is RARE... (Marvel Mystery Comics #15)

or

it could be that few were submitted because it is CHEAP... (Uncanny X-Men #372)

 

...but just the fact that there's 15 copies graded doesn't tell you WHICH factor is driving.

 

If you don't know comic books, you won't learn much using the census

and ignoring the price guide. (Or vice versa.)

 

The answer is probably that you should look at the "peer books"...

other books which are from the same time period, preferably books

which are also approximately the same value... to see if a book

"stands out" as being under-represented on the census.

 

If two books are worth $100 each, from the same year,

and one has significantly fewer copies graded,

then it's likely it is also "harder to find".

(...especially if they're also from the same company)

[thecollectron]

I don't pay much attention to proclamations of rarity based on the census. I agree with others on this thread that there are probably a lot of raw books sitting in private collections. Certainly more SA and BA than GA, but they're out there. I also think there is a difference between "rare" and "rare in grade."

I'm not very motivated to send my books out to be slabbed because

#1) I have no interest in selling them and

#2) I like having access to their contents and

#3) I have far more low-grade than high-grade so I don't see the point in paying

someone else to tell me that my comic is a 2.0 or whatever, unless I was

going to sell it and it's a high-demand book in any grade, but see #1).

 

It's only my opinion, and I hope I don't sound like a reverse-snob, it's just that slabbing has not been a part of my collecting style. So, on some of the census numbers, I could add at least 1 to the total, and I'm sure there are others out there.