How many is too many?

[Kevin76]

I was wondering since I have seen so many new books with the new labels with high grades in recents months that the census numbers are growing slowly,My question is that when it comes to Gold/Silver Age books,of keys books that are fairly scarce. let's just say...( generaly speaking) 3 9.6 FF #4's and 10 9.4's...is that too many? is say 10 or 15 copies of FF 4 in 9.4 too many that it effects the price? If not, How many do there have to be too see a price reduction? is 20 9.4's of FF #4 now common? If any dealers are reading this,I would like to hear your thoughts. Thanx Kevin

[sfilosa]

Good question!!!

 

I wouldn't expect a huge drop in price unless a lot of books come on the market at the same time. In other words, if 2 or 3, 9.4 copies get graded every year, that probably won't affect the price much, but if 10, 9.4 copies were graded (and then offer for sale), I could see prices coming down somewhat.

 

What I really see happening is that prices won't go up much since we have just seen the big increase because of the CGC effect. Plus, I really see GPAnalysis helping people not dramatically overpaying for books.

 

I'm still a big believer that there are many high-grade copies of books that are unslabbed. Long term collectors aren't going to get there books graded until it's time to sell (and they ain't selling).

 

[Kevin76]

Yea, take well...dare I say hulk 181 for example ( sorry AK ) There is a zillion of these books and people are driving the price up...while in the census says for some books 10 9.4 on X-Men 1 (example) You don't really see them for sale,So i guess what is for sale and how many of them are is certainly 2 different things.How often do you see X-men 12 9.4 for sale? I have seen a couple and thats about it,yet 10 are listed on the census..so no one is selling.I guess all it takes is a few of those people to say to themselves "not for sale". Kevin

[COI]

When looking at the census #'s for expensive keys, like early FF's, you have to take into account the fact that the data is not likely 100% accurate. It dosen't take into account resubs, which I think happens more than most think, especially when thousands of dollars are at stake.

 

Just be careful when buying. Unless you've got the money to burn, stick with 8.5's to 9.2's on early silver, because the price difference from grade to grade is astronomical after you hit 9.4. It's not worth it, and I think the price gap between grades is going to become narrower, not because 9.0's and 9.2's are going to go up, but because 9.4's and 9.6's are going to go down.

 

 

[Kevin76]

When looking at the census #'s for expensive keys, like early FF's, you have to take into account the fact that the data is not likely 100% accurate. It dosen't take into account resubs, which I think happens more than most think, especially when thousands of dollars are at stake.

 

Just be careful when buying. Unless you've got the money to burn, stick with 8.5's to 9.2's on early silver, because the price difference from grade to grade is astronomical after you hit 9.4. It's not worth it, and I think the price gap between grades is going to become narrower, not because 9.0's and 9.2's are going to go up, but because 9.4's and 9.6's are going to go down.

 

 

Thanx for the insight Andrew, But I can't totally agree with you 100%.Reason being is when it's early silver pre 65 in 9.4/9.6 I really don't think they are going to go down all that much because of how rare some books are in those grades,an FF 1 in 9.6 is not likely to go down,you can't say " Well one on Heritage sold for 200K,while 2 months later another pops up on eBay and sells for 125K..does that mean the book is dropping in value? Some seem to think so. But since the number are slowly growing in the census over a long period of time.and over the course of 20 years there just so happens to be 25 9.6's of FF #1 does that make FF #1 now common in high grade?

[COI]

I seriously doubt there are 25 existing FF #1's in 9.6 condition. But for Silver in general, I do think there's a lot more 9.4/9.6 books to come.

 

What I worry about is that, while CGC is a good service, I don't feel confident enough in their grading to drop thousands of $$$ more on a single grade increment. The majority of ultra high grade collectors, who will only look at graded 9.4+ copies, do so purely out of ego. Most won't admit it, but it's true. Before CGC, I'd be willing to wager that most of these collectors had a collection in which the majority of books were 9.2 or lower, which they were probably pretty happy with. But with the label, comes the ego. Now for a collector to brag, all he has to do is mention numbers to sum up the stats of his collection. Just look at the CGC registry; While it's nice to know what other people have, it is purely set up as a means of dropping numbers. There are no room for raw books, pics, or links to pics, just a cert #, and grade, and most importantly, POINTS. And the reason for points is so that collections can be ranked, which makes it a competition. It may not be called that, but that's all it really is, essentially. And a collection competition, broken down, is a "who's wallet is bigger" contest. And even for those who don't post in the registry, the ego factor is still there. It's natural to want to be able to say you have one of the best collections in the world. I'm not a hypocrite, and will admit that it would probably feel pretty damn good monopolizing the top marvels, and be known for it. It's human nature to want to be at "the top" or "the best" at something you enjoy, and anyone who says they wouldn't like that on some level is lying. And any ultra high grade freak who tells you they don't feel some measure of ego gratification from having the best, is in denial.

 

 

Kevin, we're in the same age group, so let me ask you this: How many people do you think there are in our age group who are interested in S.A collecting? And more importantly, how many of those S.A collectors are going to be willing or able to drop the money required to aquire these books in ultra high grade? Let's say down the road, someone like Brulato, who I'm sure currently holds most of the top S.A Marvels, decides to cash out. As of right now, if that happened, I'm fairly positive the market would not be able to absorb his books, and even if it could, the remainder of the market would crumble, at least temproarily. And that's now, in a time when the CGC market, and S.A high grade collector population, is healthy. What if Brulato, or someone with a collection like his, decides to unload 20 years from now? And what if, in the same time period(a few years) other big collectors start doing the same? Do you think there will be enough cashflow in the market, from collectors and/or dealers to absorb those books? Just look at what happened to Italian treasure, and he was selling choice copies of the most in-demand run.

 

My opinions on ultra high grades has changed drastically. What I've come to realize is that high grade Marvel is simply too abundant to hold these prices for the long haul, especially when the inevitable time comes that the generation who is most actively buying these books, will inevitably be cashing out at some point. Not to mention the fact that grading will get stricter as time goes on, and that FF #4 CGC 9.4 that someone might pay 20K for today, may not hold up as a 9.4 years from now. So what then?

 

I'm not trying to be overly negative, and I did not mean for this to turn into another Market crash thread. I don't think the future of collecting has to be negative, as long as you make smarter choices from now. Don't scoff at a book just because the label says 8.5. Don't stubbornly insist on only 9.X copies for your collection. Look at the books themselves, in relation to the money you're spending. And always ask yourself, when considering a major purchase, what the odds are that you may see this book again anytime soon. All this is especially true with S.A Marvels. And, IMO, the best strategy if you insist on wanting to collect ultra high grades, is to be patient.

 

As for the major keys in major grades, keep this in mind: Those who work in fine art galleries, high end Car dealerships, fine Jewlery shops, antiques, or in the sales of any other extravagent toys, will tell you that in many of these establishments, you won' t see a single price tag The idea behind this being that if a customer has to ask "how much", they can't afford it. A CGC 9.4 FF #1, in my mind, is no different, in that it's a rich boy's toy. And if you're worried about how many will appear in the census down the road, to the extent that it will alter your decision on whether or not to purchase it, or if you worry when you see a book you just bought for 150K , sell for 100K months later, the reason you're worried is that you can't really afford it and shouldn't be buying it. Someone who can drop 100K+ on a book for "their collection" should have enough wealth and resources not to worry if they see that same book sell for 25K less a few months later. IMO, it's just that simple.

 

I realize this post went all over the place, and it wasn't directed at Kevin specifically......it's just my opinion on the current state of the HG market.

 

 

 

[Kevin76]

Thanx for the post and your opinion Andrew,

No I can't afford to spend a 100K on a book or car,most people can't. I can see the ego in owning a high grade book, I personally don't need to own "any book" in 9.6/9.8 grades..depending on what it is 9.0-9.4 is fine by me...If i was going to drop 20K on a book and it's a 9.6...I'll take the 9.4 for a few grand less.Not only do you have the ego thing going on with collectors,there still is nothing like owning a book that you paid 5K 10K 20K or even 25K that no one seems to want anymore,simply because it's a 9.2 and not a 9.4,I know there most likley won't be 25 9.6's of FF #1,I was just using that as an example because what was once thought of as scarce/rare is now common.See? Perfect example is FF 48 9.8, I saw this book seel for 8K in 9.8..now it can be had for 4-5K,because it became too common in HG.

As for the registery, I do like seeing what other people have,I don't get into the whole "ranking/scoring" thing,There are some very impressive runs of ASM and X-Men that Ghostown has,and I'm sure he was smiling as he was listing them all,I know I would.But that is part of collecting anything,baseball cards,comics,old cars,autographs ect...to own the best! I don't need to own the best like Mr.Brulato.I do however get a kick out of seeing some really HG books,Hulk 1 9.4,FF 1 9.6,AF 15 9.4,X-Men 1 9.8..I love seeing books like that,always have. WOW! A NM Amazing Fantasy #15!!!!! That's one of the things that keeps me excited about funnybooks.When I got my ASM 14 9.4...I was the happiest guy in the world.But like anything else,you get used to having it and don't get excited anymore,so you go and look for something else to feed that 5 year old inside of you and so on...Like a rockstar who keeps touring,He's already rich,so why keep touring? Cause it's an adrenilane rush to watch people sing along with you and have hot girls reaching up trying to touch you.Well since we all can't be a bunch of little Elvis's.We find something else to focus on,in this case...comics. Kevin

 

 

[clobberintime]

I tend to agree with the Captain on long term collectibility and being conservative on spending multiples of guide for the expensive early books. One factor is of course the availability or rarity of the book but a factor which is equally important down the road if you are looking at liquidating your tangible collectible is - who will buy it? If you look around, you can count on one hand the folks that regularly buy books over $5000. How hard is to move a 9.6 Spidey 8 and make your money back or a profit - do you intend to hold for a long time - are you suddenly in a bind and need cash quickly? CGC has been around only a few years and as you can see, prices fluctuate with the economy, movie releases, the amount of books on the market etc and I think a lot of the pricing on 9.4+ books is a real gamble on the big ticket items. They are often diificult to move and hard to find the right buyers. A lot of the big time collectors already have it all - so you are getting to the 2nd tier who may be more frugal anyway. I will buy the higher grade books if they are not crAZY GUIDE multiples and if it is a favorite issue . Take for instance that FF 12 9.4 that was up recently - not many takers at $22,000 were there? And that is a genuinely scarce and very collectible book. But the price was insane - you can get a 9.2 for $5000! And how much better is a 9.4 than a 9.2? If you have a lot of cgc books then you probably know that there may be no difference and sometimes the 9.2 looks better! Is that worth $15,0000? Will the difference be worth $15,000 10 years from now? The super high grade books will always be desirable as something that is unique like the super pricy sports cars - the thing is with comics is that you only have a handful of folks willing to take the risk or with the ability to afford them. One way to change that of course is to get more big deal buyers in the market - like coin collectors. And that has been the idea of JP and Heritage with help from cgc for a few years now. Coin collectors are older and have more money so the trick is to get them to buy comics instead of coins. I wish we could tell how many coin collectors have been buying up the expensive books as opposed to long time true comic collectors. Anyway I think a good idea is to try to stick to prices that relate to OS in the 9.0/9.2 range as those books look almost as good as the 9.4+ books.

[seank]

{Snippage} The super high grade books will always be desirable as something that is unique like the super pricy sports cars - the thing is with comics is that you only have a handful of folks willing to take the risk or with the ability to afford them. One way to change that of course is to get more big deal buyers in the market - like coin collectors. And that has been the idea of JP and Heritage with help from cgc for a few years now. Coin collectors are older and have more money so the trick is to get them to buy comics instead of coins.