The Next Wave?

[ArnoldTBlumberg]

I'm sure the know-how would not be the issue, nor the energy, but there are absolutely no plans that I'm aware of that suggest Gemstone (Overstreet) will ever get involved in that aspect of the hobby. From a personal perspective, I've always been of the belief that branching out into other areas like that could only lead to doubts or questions about the integrity of the Guide pricing and the impact of other activities on that data. So it's best to stick with what everyone relies on from Overstreet and leave the rest to others - that's the impression I get.

[Guest]

Wow, lots of varied thoughts to reply to:

 

I've always been of the belief that branching out into other areas like that could only lead to doubts or questions about the integrity of the Guide pricing and the impact of other activities on that data.

 

I share that opinion, arnold. The perception of impropriety could be there, as with CGCs FMV charge policy and Heritage's bidding on their own auctions.

 

doc - i think the only entity that could conceivably go into the grading business would be Overstreet.

 

In terms of having the experience operating a professional grading service, Beckett is the one. They've displayed a leaning towards expanding the number of services they offer within the sportscard market - would they consider branching out beyond cards...?

[ArnoldTBlumberg]

I would agree, Beckett would be the one to keep an eye on. If one came from experience in coins and other collectibles, why not a similar evolution of another company? But who knows if it will ever happen?

[Guest]

I am well aware of this, but if I understand correctly, the "soft" grading companies came first, and so the "strict" grading competitors moved in to take advantage of that fact.

 

No, actually it was PSA that led the card grading surge. Over time, Beckett, SGC and a bunch of soft knockoffs sprung up. As it stands now, Beckett is the preferred service with PSA trailing and SGC a third favorite.

 

Would dealers submit their books to another service if they got a 9.4 instead of a 9.6? I doubt it. Would they submit to another service if they got a 9.8 instead of a 9.6? Maybe.

 

Yes, maybe.... until the 9.8s from a soft grading company started to sell for what the 9.4 of the stricter company sells for. This is what happens with sports cards. When that happens, submissions to the soft graders trail off.

 

My point is that the vast majority of collectors and dealers consider CGC to be plenty strict. On this Forum, everyone wants to be stricter than the next guy and so it becomes a point of pride to say how lenient CGC i

 

I agree with this... I have no issues with CGCs grading standards, although I have gotten some shaky 9.6s lately. My point is to simply illustrate what has happened in the card market, as Beckett has gained a rep for tighter grading.

[Guest]

People who become fans of the comic book movies will buy DVDs (or maybe videogames), not comics. 11 million units! Meanwhile, what's the monthly circulation of ASM and USM? Still in the high 5 figures or low 6 figures each, I think. Marvel is doing a great job of creating comic movie fans. Not such a great job at hooking new readers..

 

If Marvel/DC don't bridge this gap, the hobby will slowly fade.....

[Guest]

go read Dan Raviv's "Comic Wars" book

 

If anyone here hasn't read this, please do. It documents the plundering of Marvel by Ron Perelman, the near takeover by Carl Icahn, and the eventual solution to Marvel's ownership battle.

[aardvark88]

There is a summary of CBS reporter Dan Raviv exploring the 90s Battle for Marvel takeover in CBG # 1485 02May03. Article worth digging out & re-reading.

[blazingbob]

As usual I painfully watch the "all knowing" who buy and sell the type of material they hammer with utter disgust. Collector buys a 9.4 and sells 3 months later? Is this a collector or speculator? Overstreet NM price guide remains flat or goes down for the next 10 years? Population report on 1962-1964 Marvel or DC's exploding? This I gotta see. I've been chasing High Grade 1962-1964 Marvels for over 10 years straight and the census is reflecting a lot of the material from a lot of the same collectors who have also been chasing it. While FF #48 may be common as a Hulk #181 I'm still waiting to see the 2nd FF #12 or 13 in 9.4.

 

I travel shows around the country, I also have a very big outlet overseas. Gee, they all ask me for the same material that I and other major dealers run around at shows trying to find - Amazing Fantasy #15, Amazing Spiderman #3, 4, 11, 15, 17, 23, 28, Batman's from 1959-1962, Brave & The Bold #28 VF+ or better, DareDevil 7, 16, Journey Into Mystery #83-100, Showcase #22, Strange Tales #107, 109, 112, Annual #2, Tales of Suspense #39-58, X-Men #5, 12. Wake up to the fact that there is a market overseas that likes American Comic Books. There are some very strong overseas buyers and the supply overseas isn't exactly growing by leaps and bounds. What, you've never sold a comic overseas? Come on you pencil pushers and chart watchers, jump all over my post with your vast knowledge of selling. I'm still waiting to see you setting up at shows trying to be dealers with everything you know.

 

[g-man]

not that this compares to those issues that you mentioned bob, but i do agree that u can make a few $$ selling across the pond. For example, I sold a DD #158 cgc 9.4 owp for $450 about 3-4 months ago to some dude in Australia. Not too shabby for a book that barely breaks $200-250 here. Now if this is an indication of sales, just imagine what early Spideys,FF, etc would get.

 

btw Bob: How was the NY show?

[Guest]

odin, you should read the whole book. It really fleshes things out, and makes you realize that Marvel was a hair's breadth from going down.

[aardvark88]

Doc,

Will try to find the bk & read it. My friend was holding onto Marvel stock. Then it hit below $2/share & I believe trading was halted for a while. Seemed like the end of Marvel at that time. Nobody wanted to believe it.

[Lantern]

The only thing pushing comic prices now are the movies. No new readers/collectors are entering the hobby, so it's just hype-based selling to lure the ever-shrinking number of current buyers to buy even more.

 

According to a September 16, 2002 New York Times article, Superman will be the next DC Comics character based film. This project having beat out the Supes vs Batman idea. So if I wanted an early jump on movie based hype I could pick up some really cheap Superman keys and wait until summer 2004.

 

[CosmicBob]

What about Smallville and Birds of Prey? I don't watch either, but are they having any effect on the DC stuff? Plus, weren't they going to make a Catwoman movie with Ashley Judd?

[ArnoldTBlumberg]

I can't see any television or movies *ever* having a significant positive effect on comic book sales. There simply is no discernible crossover. People who enjoy the movies are just not interested in reading comics. If they like the characters, they'll buy the DVDs, the video games or what have you, but they won't be converted into comic book readers, which remains an extremely rarified category of American thanks to decades of stigma.

 

 

[Kevin Boyd]

In general and re: movies:

 

Since the '80s resurgence seems to be dying already, Daredevil is the current darling of the hobby as those who are in the hobby already, are scrambling to get those books. If I could predict the next big thing it would be a further escalation of interest in Hulk comics (particularly TTA issues and Hulk 102-250) by the same collector/speculator group when we get the next look at that film. Beyond that, who knows? Movies tend to elevate sales of back issues within our own collecting community, while they do help sell more related material in the bookstores (trade paperbacks, hardcovers, toys, etc.)

 

I was happy to see comics played a big part in the special features and documentaries on the second Spider-Man disc. If someone wanted to buy a Spider-Man comic story after watching those features, realistically, where would they go? My money isn't on the comic shop. People are mostly sheep, they buy what is in their field of vision, and comics aren't there... you have to actively seek out the comic shop.

 

Re: CGC

 

Hard to say if there will ever be another "explosion" of prices as we saw a year+ ago. Probably not. Prices will occasionally spike if there is a bidding war, but that would be about it.

 

CGC will definitely have a place as there is a need for a third party grading service if e-bay and the internet continue to be the preferred forum for buying and selling.

 

Prices will settle to Overstreet levels on these books. So you might see less gambling by dealers on modern material and more of a reliance on high grade silver age and any decent golden age. Dealers seem to be more actively pursuing collections than they were before CGC.

 

Re: CGC competition.

 

I think CGC is quite ready for the emergence of a competitor in the field of third party grading. Personally, I don't see how anyone could seriously challenge CGC since it has a strong hold on the market and has built up an excellent relationship with dealers and collectors. Some of the people I've talked to from CGC are eager to have some competition!

 

Re: Comic Sales

 

Sal Buscema and I had a nice talk on Saturday about comic sales. He believes that since the companies decided the kids weren't worth pursuing (about 10 years ago) he believes the companies are getting what they deserved. Some comic books can be for adults, but when you decide to ignore the primary audience of course your sales are going to slip. His wife pointed out that video games have taken the place of comics in kids lives.

 

I told him that while I agree with him on the story end, I still think that the big problem is that by focusing in on direct market/comic book stores the companies have ignored the outlets by which kid would have even come in contact with comic books!

 

I still see the future of the industry heading more and more towards the bookstore instead of the comic shop. Graphic novel and trade paperback sales continue to go up, while comic sales have stopped their fast slide into oblivion to only maintain a slow descent into obscurity.

 

Kev

[mr_highgrade]

Greetings Blazing One: Always a pleasure to hear the voice of reason.

As far as the "next wave" it's very simple... magazine grading.

Don't forget CGC is about to start grading magazines.

If anyone has any Spectacular Spider-man's # 1 or 2 in high-grade, please PM me.

 

[lighthouse]

Grant Morrison was quoted not too long ago as saying that comic books are the province of the extremely cool and the extremely uncool...

 

As much as I would like to disagree with him, I can't...

 

I think some of the problem lies in the price-points.

 

When was the last time you made a special trip to a specialty store to buy an item that cost less than $3.00??? The very concept boggles the mind for anyone who doesn't buy comic books. There are plenty of items we all buy with price points that low, but they are items sold everywhere. Items like cigarettes, hamburgers, and gasoline are sold on every corner. Comics aren't. We make a special trip to Best Buy to spend $15, but could you really justify making that trip for a $3 item? Do you really think you could convince your friends how cool it was to drive to Best Buy to pick up a $3 item?

 

Talk all you want about the fact that comic books are a lot more expensive than they used to be, but the fact is the price point is too low for most consumers. People will drive across town to buy a $20 DVD or a $50 video game. Getting them to drive across town to buy a stack of $2-3 items is a lot harder, even if they spend the same amount of money. It's just hard to justify the trip for cheap items. Cheap items seem like something you should be able to get on every corner...

 

Frankly, the rise of TPB's is one of the best things I have seen for the industry in a while... We finally have a comic item with a reasonable price point that you can read. I used to get customers all the time who wanted to buy something for a comic fan, but didn't see a stack of $2-3 items as being a real gift. So they bought a toy or a t-shirt. Now they buy trades...

 

And until the product mix is perceived as socially acceptable enough to drive across town for, the only people making that drive will be the extremely cool and the extremely uncool...

[lighthouse]

As far as the "next wave" it's very simple... magazine grading.

Don't forget CGC is about to start grading magazines.

 

I was hoping no one would mention this...

 

I have around 800 high grade Marvel B&W's plus another 300-500 from other publishers that are waiting for the CGC stamp of approval...

 

I would not be surprised to see some obscene money pour into these within the first year of grading. Donut is dead on with his 20 years ago analysis, and the people of our generation would love to see some high end monster mags... And I would not be surprised to see the Bruce Lee issues trading at $600 or more in 9.4...

[Lantern]

The stigma you speak of, which is played up every day of the week by The Comic Guy on the Simpsons, is an unfortunate one. It is truly unfortunate that comics are not as widely accepted in the States as they are in places like Japan. An article in Asia Week published not to long ago stated that "manga accounted for 38.5% of all books and magazines sold in Japan, with the influence being felt in various art forms and the culture at large." Now I am no fan of the manga in the States, but it is unfortunate that comics do not have this wide a reach in Western culture.

 

 

[Kevin Boyd]

True, comics in Japan and in Europe are much more popular than they are here in North America, but look at the way they are marketted there and tell me that we aren't making some major mistakes by our devotion to the traditional comics format.

 

In Japan, Manga is sold in thick volumes, big and small. NOT in little 32 page pamphlets.

 

In Europe, comics are serialized in magazines and/or sold in graphic novels. Only imported US comics are sold in pamphlet format.

 

Kev