The $1 million AF #15 and the most Valuable Comic in the world

[Old Fashion PB and J]

That is the whole point. In recent sales, the Action #1 is more scarce and sells for less than the same ranked AF #15 (please read RANKED best copies, NOT grade for grade). Therefore, the AF #15 has greater demand..it;s all supply and demand guys. Remember, we are talking about the best single copy of each issue here, not the grade.

 

One of these AF15's sells EVERY day. Action 1 recent sales are probably not quite up there. It really is a losing arguement.

[paperheart]

Here is a little something that might just freeze the blood in the GA collector. Since the question of scarcity has come up....

 

The last CGC Action #1 that sold that I am aware of was the $80K CGC 2.0 on ComicLink. There are curently 19 CGC Action #1's at 2.0 or better unrestored.

 

The last AF #15 CGC 8.5 sold for $118,000. There are currently 20 CGC AF #15's at 8.5 or better unrestored.

 

So, tier for tier, the AF #15 is less scarce and worth more money than Action Comics #1 already!

 

Simple fact, the 20th or so best copy of AF #!5 sold for more than the 19th or so best copy of Action #1. That is UNBELIEVABLE!

 

Didnt a coverless action 1 sell for 20K ? I really dont see taking the 8.5 book, and the 2.0 book and comparing ? This is just totally out of context. There ARE Action 1's in HG correct? Compare that price and get back to me.

 

You are missing my point. They are clearly not worth the same grade fo grade, that would be stupid to suggest. The FACT is that in a ranking of the best copies that exist, head to head, the AF #15 wins. That COULD imply by logical interpretaion that the BEST Action #1 is worth less than the BEST AF #15. This is just a hypothetical argument, and of course is open to discussion.

 

when brulato gets offered $2mm for his AF #15 get back to us and we'll discuss

[bergdoll]

The problem with the comparison of the two books is that one has market volume and one does not.

 

It's impossible to determine the "final" price of an Action #1 because it fails to enter the market place consistently enough to fix a price. Each time it sells, it sets a record.

 

AF#15 does sell on a consistent basis and the price can certainly be said to be in flux, but has some stability (upward!). We are seeing cases where it will fetch a high price at auction and then anther copy will fetch a lower price. This is common of a collectible "finding it's price"

 

Highest-graded copy is a difficult tool to use as measurement because there is uncertainty involved. The more recent the book, the greater risk the investor\speculator\collector takes in buying the "best" copy. More may surface - especially if prices "pull" them to market.

 

Where does this all end?

 

That's the million dollar question and, in my opinion, there will be a saturation point on the AF#15 in to the market place. At some point, all active collectors seeking the books will either acquire it or it will fall out of their tolerable price-range. I'm not convinced there is an inherent scarcity to the book like there is with Action #1 at this point.

 

Action #1 is not the same. There are lines of people waiting to purchase the book as evidenced by the historical sales on the book. When I was younger, there seemed to always be a few in the market to buy at any time. I'm not sure if this is still the case. Can I buy one today? I don't think so.

 

If you want an AF#15, and if you have the right amount of money - you can still readily acquire it. Again, I haven't checked, but I suspect I could buy one today.

 

At the least, I'll have more choice in AF#15's.

 

If you want an Action #1, you will need to have more patience (and more money!)

 

My thought is that the Action #1 market is comprised primarily of collectors and the AF#15 market is a combined market of Investors\speculators\collectors. Hence, market flux. Again, I suspect there are individuals or groups that own multiples of this book. We'll see if the US economic turn-down results in more on the market.

 

Action #1 also has external appeal beyond just the character. It represents the first "comic book" to many (yeah...it's not, but there's that perception).

 

I see AF#15 becoming a top 10 book in the future due to the number of fans of Spider-man. I see Spider-man's first appearance beating Wonder Woman's. Superman and Batman? I'm not convinced.

 

(and ... for what it's worth - I personally think PEP #22 is the book that I want the most!)

 

 

 

[bergdoll]

Oh - I should add. The economic turn-down is unlikely to result in any key GA books being dumped on the market. Most are in the hands of the affluent and this market doesn't tend to require liquidation of assets during economic adjustments.

 

It is mostly the less affluent, investors and speculators that find themselves in liquidity crunches and start selling assets.

 

 

 

[rob_react]

(and ... for what it's worth - I personally think PEP #22 is the book that I want the most!)

 

 

 

[thedude]

the thing about the Mile High copy of Action #1, is that it is the ONLY book, that is truly priceless. (along with the Allentown 'Tec 27).

 

you can't put a price on it because it is not for sale nor has it been in the last 25 years. the $2 mil dollar offer was turned down.

 

it may be available for sale one day, but for now, no amount of money can acquire it.

 

it really is a special book, a cut above.

[bergdoll]

Priceless is a good point.

 

In fine art - something is said to be "priceless" when it is owned by someone (usually a gallery) that is unwilling to sell it.

 

Now. It's hard to say exactly what the plans are for this book by it's current owner. I assume that he will realize how much I love comics, pack it into a container with his other comics and send them all to me.....

 

Okay.. if THAT doesn't happen. I assume that the owner is well-off enough to not need the money and prefers the book to the money.

 

IF this is the case, then the book is indeed "priceless" for at least "X" years - where "X" is the remaining life-span of the collector.

 

What happens after "X" is anyones guess and probably something only the owner and his heirs can say. At that point, the price of the market will dictate the value and my suspicion is that this value will be.....rather high...

 

 

 

[Mephisto]

I chose the Mile High Action 1. The CGC 8.5 Action 1 has rusted staples.

[cujobyte]

Oh - I should add. The economic turn-down is unlikely to result in any key GA books being dumped on the market. Most are in the hands of the affluent and this market doesn't tend to require liquidation of assets during economic adjustments.

 

It is mostly the less affluent, investors and speculators that find themselves in liquidity crunches and start selling assets.

 

 

 

I completely agree with this. I think in the next two years you will see a lot of collections bought and sold. Sold by those who are unfortunate in losing their jobs, etc. And bought by the bigger fish who can not only afford these bad times, but take advantage of these bad times. People are losing their jobs left and right, the dow alone is down over 700 points today, the biggest one day loss in our history. Looks like comic sales overall have been very strong these past several years, and ridiculously high these past six months. We can only see what the U.S. future holds for us collectors and investors.

[bergdoll]

Yes. Those with money to invest will certainly be looking to stock-up on tradable, long-term investments!

 

High-value stamps, coins, and comics tend to be good hedges against stock market and currency loses.

[bergdoll]

You know, something else I was thinking about.

 

I'm sure that many here have the Gerber Photo-library books - right? I really like my set (wish they have SA DC's!), and one feature that really is useful for myself is the scarcity index. What do people here think about it?

 

What I am interested in knowing is whether a "demand" index exists? Are there any statistics on demand for various key books? For example, if an Action #1 has a scarcity of X and a demand of Y, then it would be easy to determine the relative upward pressure on price over any given time period - at least for the time the demand was measured.

 

Going back to the original post - I see the point that demand for AF#15 might actually be on a steeper rise than the demand for Action #1 at this point. However, the scarcity of each book makes it such that I still think Action #1 will always out-price AF#15. There's just many more AF#15's to meet demand - even as it rises.

 

A demand index would be very nice. You know - something a little more substantial than just market reports.

[VintageComics]

There a lot of discussion in the Gold forum about Gerber's scarcity index...his perspective prior to the internet was very limited and I would not put too much faith in the Gerber SI.

 

R.

 

 

[bergdoll]

oh - and don't make fun of me and tell me the price is the demand index!

[jokersrevenge]

I agree with rob's link.

 

 

This is a pretty,though

[VintageComics]

oh - and don't make fun of me and tell me the price is the demand index!

 

I don't know...I only look at pictures.

 

 

If you use the search function for "gerber" in quotes, choose the "In Subject" option, put the search time to the past 2-3 years and limit it to the Gold Comics Forum (in the little sub menu on the left) you should be able to find a few good threads on the subject.

 

R.

 

 

[VintageComics]

I agree with rob's link.

 

 

This is a pretty,though

 

 

I would take an FF #1 in equal grade over an AF #15 ANY DAY OF THE WEEK. No problem.

 

 

[Mutant Manatee]

Actually, the Gerber guides also contain an "RVI" number (Relative Value Index) for every comic, in addition to the Scarcity Index number. The RVI number is supposed to take into account both scarcity and demand. Essentially, it is a demand index. Although some of Gerber's scarcity index numbers have been exposed as inaccurate in the age of the internet, the demand index or RVI numbers are a little more constant and therefore are still fairly useful.

 

You will find many examples where the RVI is higher if it is a classic cover or more desirable book. For example, Famous Funnies 210-216 all have an Scarcity Index number of 6, as do issues 217-218. Yet issues 210-216 have RVI numbers of 145 because of the Frazetta covers, while issues 217-218 have RVI numbers of only 24. Glancing through his RVI numbers, they still seem to be consistent with the demand in today's marketplace.

[chrisco37]

 

Going back to the original post - I see the point that demand for AF#15 might actually be on a steeper rise than the demand for Action #1 at this point. However, the scarcity of each book makes it such that I still think Action #1 will always out-price AF#15. There's just many more AF#15's to meet demand - even as it rises.

 

A demand index would be very nice. You know - something a little more substantial than just market reports.

 

Only reason AF#15 demand is/would be greater than Action #1 demand is the cost. There are more "collectors" that could "afford" AF#15 vs. Action #1. So, the demand seems higher.

 

I can't afford either (in any grade). I prefer Spidey over Superman all day, everyday. But, given the choice, I'd take Axtion 31 over AF#15. No comparison.

 

The AF#15 (9.6) would be sweet, but I'd take a 4.0 Action #1 over it every time.

 

And the Church Action #1, I'd take over any book. Even if it had the "small amount of glue" or "small amount of color touch" notation on it. That book is "THE BOOK" in the hobby. Nothing (not even the Allentown Tec #27) comes close.

[bergdoll]

Thanks for the reminder in the RVI - I should have opened my Gerber books prior to posting!

 

Personally, I'll take them all!

 

I'm possibly in the minority, but I'm a little "old school" - VG and up works for me. I know there's a difference between a 5.0 and a 9.4 book, but I remain unconvinced that I really care.

[bergdoll]

I agree with rob's link.

 

I would take an FF #1 in equal grade over an AF #15 ANY DAY OF THE WEEK. No problem.

 

 

FF#1 is certainly a more historical book in my opinion as well. (and I'm a huge Spider-man fan)