Any guesses as to the CGC Census's % of what exists in GA?

[ciorac]

I believe I read somewhere that less than10% of all books slabbed were golden age. If this is true, then the 1-5% opinion would probably be accurate. If we say that there are 2,000,000 GA books existing in the world, then it would be impossible to have a higher number than 5%. There may be more than 2,000,000 books out there. Print runs were over a million copies of single issues at the peak of distribution during the war years.

[tb]

Do you think that, on the average, the current GA Census is 10% of what actually is in the world? 50%? 80%? etc. And how do you reach your conclusions?

 

If you want to get a percentage calculated from solid data, my best bet would be to start with the most valuable book that has a known, sufficiently wide distribution to make a statistical argument (i.e. Central Limit Theorem applies). As far as I remember, Action 1 had a circulation of 300,000 (you can Google the actual figure). If we assume that no other comic is more desirable to slab, the CGC census gives a lower bound for the fraction of surviving copies. If you then estimate the cummulative print run of all books for a given title/year around 1940 and multiply by the above fraction, the result will give you an idea for how many copies would have been in the census today if all the books had been as worthwhile to slab as an Action 1. This number will of course increase with time as more and more books are slabbed.

 

Then again, it's probably easier just to guess a percentage that sounds reasonable and I don't think anyone would care about the difference.

[jimjum12]

Do you think that, on the average, the current GA Census is 10% of what actually is in the world? 50%? 80%? etc. And how do you reach your conclusions?

 

If you want to get a percentage calculated from solid data, my best bet would be to start with the most valuable book that has a known, sufficiently wide distribution to make a statistical argument (i.e. Central Limit Theorem applies). As far as I remember, Action 1 had a circulation of 300,000 (you can Google the actual figure). If we assume that no other comic is more desirable to slab, the CGC census gives a lower bound for the fraction of surviving copies. If you then estimate the cummulative print run of all books for a given title/year around 1940 and multiply by the above fraction, the result will give you an idea for how many copies would have been in the census today if all the books had been as worthwhile to slab as an Action 1. This number will of course increase with time as more and more books are slabbed.

 

Then again, it's probably easier just to guess a percentage that sounds reasonable and I don't think anyone would care about the difference.

 

I use that logic to ballpark the scarcity of SA non-keys which are not as heavily slabbed as the keys by assuming they are somewhere near the same number as a key from the same time frame of publication.Some issues are truely more scarce...due to popularity( or lack thereof ),print runs ,etc. but it is close.GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[esquirecomics]

Yup. There used to be literally dozens of Action #1's on con walls back in the day. Where are they now?

 

Dozens?

 

How far back in the day?

[VintageComics]

1970's, 1980's...it was like ASM #1 is today.

[ciorac]

1970's, 1980's...it was like ASM #1 is today.

 

Sorry I gotta disagree with you on this one. I've attended shows since the early 70's, all over the country, and I have never seen that kind of quantity. Ever. Anywhere. The only ad I remember seeing multiple copies in was that Fantasia ad from a number of years ago. And considering the source, who's to say those were all real?

[Thegoldenage]

Do you think that, on the average, the current GA Census is 10% of what actually is in the world? 50%? 80%? etc. And how do you reach your conclusions?

 

Less than 5% on most titles. I know several major collectors of Golden Age comics (thousands of books each in their collections) here in Connecticut who don't have a single book slabbed. And that's just around these parts. I remember speaking with Gary and Lane Carter at San Diego in 1994. They told me that during set up in the early days of the San Diego Con dealers would bring in pallet loads of Golden Age comics. I can recall back in the 80's at cons such as San Diego that there were stacks of Golden Age on dealers tables.

 

Just my own observations.

[Thegoldenage]

Yup. There used to be literally dozens of Action #1's on con walls back in the day. Where are they now?

 

They are all out there somewhere.

 

There are WAY more books out there than we can imagine. You name it, Marvel #1, Superman #1, Batman #1...they are all out there in collections, attics etc.

 

I don't recall dozens of copies of Action 1, but a major cons in the 70's and into the 80's it wasn't unusual to see three or four copies. I agree that Superman 1 and Batman 1 were way more common, as they continue to be today.

[ashrael]

Yup. There used to be literally dozens of Action #1's on con walls back in the day. Where are they now?

 

Dozens?

 

How far back in the day?

 

1938

[G.A.tor]

most action 1's I have ever seen in one room at a con was 2 (going back to SDCC 1991)

 

my guess is 1-2% or less of all GA books have been sent to CGC...and quite honestly, that number is probably high...

 

so, if anyone thinks 80% of any 1 issue has been slabbed, then I am happy to edumacate dem

[skybolt]

If someone owns an above $1K CGC graded GA book in the 9.0 range and it's currently the 2nd highest graded copy on the census, then I seriously doubt there are another 50 similar copies out there that will grade equal or higher. On the other hand, I currently own a Wonder Woman #3 CGC 6.5 that's currently the 3rd highest graded copy on the census. I have no doubt that if all copies of WW #3 were CGC graded then this book will probably fall out of at least the top 30 or 40.

 

Again, I don't care how well some of these raw GA books were maintained over the years, receiving a 9.0 grade from CGC will not be that easy!

[G.A.tor]

If someone owns an above $1K CGC graded GA book in the 9.0 range and it's currently the 2nd highest graded copy on the census, then I seriously doubt there are another 50 similar copies out there that will grade equal or higher. On the other hand, I currently own a Wonder Woman #3 CGC 6.5 that's currently the 3rd highest graded copy on the census. I have no doubt that if all copies of WW #3 were CGC graded then this book will probably fall out of at least the top 30 or 40.

 

Again, I don't care how well some of these raw GA books were maintained over the years, receiving a 9.0 grade from CGC will not be that easy!

very true...

9.0 and above represent a rarity in the GA...if there are only 2 copies of any particular GA book on the census, then I would agree that would not represent 1-2% of that book in "that" grade...

 

but, as far as % of GA books across all grades, I would be willing to bet the number is 1-2% or less...

[Paratrooper]

The below is a Gerber no-show and only rated a SI of 7. In the past 3 years I have never seen one for sale, this is the only graded copy on the census. I bet no boardie has a copy and not one major dealer has one for sale on their site. 7 is wrong.

[kimik]

Yup. There used to be literally dozens of Action #1's on con walls back in the day. Where are they now?

 

They are all out there somewhere.

 

There are WAY more books out there than we can imagine. You name it, Marvel #1, Superman #1, Batman #1...they are all out there in collections, attics etc.

 

I don't recall dozens of copies of Action 1, but a major cons in the 70's and into the 80's it wasn't unusual to see three or four copies. I agree that Superman 1 and Batman 1 were way more common, as they continue to be today.

 

So, this begs the question - where are they now? My guess is that we will soon have a nice 3 - 5 year window where a lot of GA books will change hands from older collectors/original owners to new collectors due to demographics. Looking at some of the posts from longtime collectors/dealers, there were still plenty of GA books to go around in the 70s that found new homes so there should be a lot of them surfacing sometime soon.

 

 

Heck, now might be a good time to check out the attics in old houses (especially if they are the only owner) that are for sale - all you need is one Action Comics #1 in GD condition to cover the cost of the house!

 

[sfcityduck]

So, this begs the question - where are they now?

 

At some point in the late 70s/early 80s, key issues became sufficiently expensive that they turned into "investments." Prices rose steadily and dramatically. Consequently, it's not surprising to me at all that the turnover on those books declined, especially if the owners began to perceive them as a retirement asset. I certainly know this to be the case with a guy who quietly owns most of Overstreet's Top 10 books. Thus, the answer to the question is probably: In safety deposit boxes.

[kimik]

So, this begs the question - where are they now?

 

At some point in the late 70s/early 80s, key issues became sufficiently expensive that they turned into "investments." Prices rose steadily and dramatically. Consequently, it's not surprising to me at all that the turnover on those books declined, especially if the owners began to perceive them as a retirement asset. I certainly know this to be the case with a guy who quietly owns most of Overstreet's Top 10 books. Thus, the answer to the question is probably: In safety deposit boxes.

 

If that is the case, I wonder what impact on the condition of the books the safety deposit box vault will have?

[VintageComics]

So, this begs the question - where are they now?

 

At some point in the late 70s/early 80s, key issues became sufficiently expensive that they turned into "investments." Prices rose steadily and dramatically. Consequently, it's not surprising to me at all that the turnover on those books declined, especially if the owners began to perceive them as a retirement asset. I certainly know this to be the case with a guy who quietly owns most of Overstreet's Top 10 books. Thus, the answer to the question is probably: In safety deposit boxes.

 

I'll bet you could walk into any major con in the early 1970's and find more than 10 Action #1 or Detective #27 books. I'd put money on it. It's probably be like finding an FF #1 or an ASM #1 on a con today. Any major con you go to will have a variety of them...and like I said in an earlier thread...Marvel Comics #1 was the tough book to find...and now they seem to be more readily available. It all goes in cycles. I'd say it's only a matter of time before we see Action #1's going around again.

 

R.

 

 

[G.A.tor]

So, this begs the question - where are they now?

 

At some point in the late 70s/early 80s, key issues became sufficiently expensive that they turned into "investments." Prices rose steadily and dramatically. Consequently, it's not surprising to me at all that the turnover on those books declined, especially if the owners began to perceive them as a retirement asset. I certainly know this to be the case with a guy who quietly owns most of Overstreet's Top 10 books. Thus, the answer to the question is probably: In safety deposit boxes.

 

I'll bet you could walk into any major con in the early 1970's and find more than 10 Action #1 or Detective #27 books. I'd put money on it. It's probably be like finding an FF #1 or an ASM #1 on a con today. Any major con you go to will have a variety of them...and like I said in an earlier thread...Marvel Comics #1 was the tough book to find...and now they seem to be more readily available. It all goes in cycles. I'd say it's only a matter of time before we see Action #1's going around again.

 

R.

 

that roy, is unfortunately a bet you would lose... just ask pons or bedrock or bangzoom or bob beerbhohm or redbeard or richard olson, or dave anderson, or geppi, or jim payette, or fishler, jay marbuck etc, etc all the guys that did attend every major show in the 70's and 80's (I know, because the topic has been discussed in depth)....they will all tell you the same thing...action 1's back then were pretty much just as scarce as they are now...

 

 

[Paratrooper]

So, this begs the question - where are they now?

 

At some point in the late 70s/early 80s, key issues became sufficiently expensive that they turned into "investments." Prices rose steadily and dramatically. Consequently, it's not surprising to me at all that the turnover on those books declined, especially if the owners began to perceive them as a retirement asset. I certainly know this to be the case with a guy who quietly owns most of Overstreet's Top 10 books. Thus, the answer to the question is probably: In safety deposit boxes.

 

I'll bet you could walk into any major con in the early 1970's and find more than 10 Action #1 or Detective #27 books. I'd put money on it. It's probably be like finding an FF #1 or an ASM #1 on a con today. Any major con you go to will have a variety of them...and like I said in an earlier thread...Marvel Comics #1 was the tough book to find...and now they seem to be more readily available. It all goes in cycles. I'd say it's only a matter of time before we see Action #1's going around again.

 

R.

 

that roy, is unfortunately a bet you would lose... just ask pons or bedrock or bangzoom or bob beerbhohm or redbeard or richard olson, or dave anderson, or geppi, or jim payette, or fishler, jay marbuck etc, etc all the guys that did attend every major show in the 70's and 80's (I know, because the topic has been discussed in depth)....they will all tell you the same thing...action 1's back then were pretty much just as scarce as they are now...

 

 

This brings up an interested question, where are all the older MILF's in this hobby? We just got a bunch of old fogeys to ask these kinda questions.

[G.A.tor]

So, this begs the question - where are they now?

 

At some point in the late 70s/early 80s, key issues became sufficiently expensive that they turned into "investments." Prices rose steadily and dramatically. Consequently, it's not surprising to me at all that the turnover on those books declined, especially if the owners began to perceive them as a retirement asset. I certainly know this to be the case with a guy who quietly owns most of Overstreet's Top 10 books. Thus, the answer to the question is probably: In safety deposit boxes.

 

I'll bet you could walk into any major con in the early 1970's and find more than 10 Action #1 or Detective #27 books. I'd put money on it. It's probably be like finding an FF #1 or an ASM #1 on a con today. Any major con you go to will have a variety of them...and like I said in an earlier thread...Marvel Comics #1 was the tough book to find...and now they seem to be more readily available. It all goes in cycles. I'd say it's only a matter of time before we see Action #1's going around again.

 

R.

 

that roy, is unfortunately a bet you would lose... just ask pons or bedrock or bangzoom or bob beerbhohm or redbeard or richard olson, or dave anderson, or geppi, or jim payette, or fishler, jay marbuck etc, etc all the guys that did attend every major show in the 70's and 80's (I know, because the topic has been discussed in depth)....they will all tell you the same thing...action 1's back then were pretty much just as scarce as they are now...

 

 

This brings up an interested question, where are all the older MILF's in this hobby? We just got a bunch of old fogeys to ask these kinda questions.

taking their geritol