Silver Age Sleepers !

[COI]

There was that $800 sale of Drummy's book, but then there was another 9.4 after that, with a new label, that went in the $1500 range.

[COI]

I do not understand the extremes on this board. You either have people preaching the crash in an exagerated, melodramatic, orgie of destruction, or you have the perma-bulls who seem so genuinly offended that you can't help and smell a little bit of insecurity in their objections. IMO, those who are secure in their buying habits and their view of the current and future state of the market shouldn't feel any need to jump down the throats of those with different opinions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Darthdiesel]

[Aman619]

Im very surprised at your response to my post. Do I sound that insecure in my objections to the doom and gloomers? I thought I was standing up for many of the rest of you who are also sick of hearing the same old story again and again. Keep in mind, Im not building HG runs in 9.4 and better at todays high prices...so I'm not the one he/they are talking about! I bought all my runs starting 15 years ago. Im in good shape as far as the $$$s Ive "invested". The crash wont put ME underwater as it might many of you here...

 

Im just sick of hearing the same arguments about the crash ALL THE FRICKIN TIME!!! They serve no purpose except to rag on others... They are the ones who are jumping down throats...

[COI]

First off, my response wasn't aimed directly at you.

 

Unfortunetly, this isn't a topic that isn't going to go away any time soon. And it isn't just one side that's starting it up. How many threads and posts start with "where is the crash"? And when someone posts this, they're just egging on the crash theorists. It isn't going to stop. The market is a big part of this hobby, and it brings people to these boards. I enjoy discussing recent sales, auctions, scarcity, overstreet pricing, etc..., but they will inevitably lead the discussion to the future of the market. And it becomes almost like quicksand; the more you fight it, and try to stop these conversations from happening, the deeper into them you sink.

 

Personally, I just think that with the growing census and the maturation of CGC and online trade, things will settle and a lot of these books will no longer see the kind of prices we are seeing today. There are a lot of collectors who are young, and therefore did not have the benefit of amassing their collections over a long period of time, and without paying huge multiples. I fit into this catagory, and a lot of others on this board(and many more who I'm sure are lurking) do as well. So I think that these conversations can serve some purpose, particularly if it is going to stop someone from using money that might be best put to other uses. Regardless of whether there is a crash, just a minor "correction", or a progressive growth into the future, it dosen't hurt to give people something to think about. I'm not a hypocrite. I do buy high grade books, and I have paid multiples. I don't think there is anything wrong with that, as long as you can afford it.

 

I think that many of these conversations have been very interesting. And as collectors, the future of this hobby will affect us all in some way, and not just financially. So the topic is unavoidable, because even if the regulars here stop bringing it up, a newbie will inevitably come along and pose an "investment" question, and will then proceed to get railroaded in the process of "The Usual Susects" re-hashing old beefs.

 

IMO, the topic itself is not the problem. People getting too emotional, is. Gene has to tolerate some serious heat and personal insults when he posts, which his odd because his posts are rarely emotional or personal. This tells me that people are responding badly out of insecurity and fear. And when that happens, the personal insults start and all hell breaks loose.

 

And yes, reading the same old arguments over and over is annoying, but it also gets annoying to constantly read about how annoying the same old annoying argunments are.

[COI]

 

Adorable kid Carl. You and your wife do some good work together.

[comicartfan]

 

Adorable kid Carl. You and your wife do some good work together.

 

 

are you sure it's Carl's ??

[OldSchoolTerry]

So basically you want to come onto a collecting forum.. and tell a lot of people they should stop collecting comics for 4 years to wait for a crash that may or may not occur, right?

 

Where did I say that?

 

I'm still buying comics, but I use only 100% discretionary funds (a la DVDs, computers, electronics, entertainment, etc.) to do so. If my collection became worthless tomorrow, it wouldn't matter a whit to me in terms of my finances.

 

Those foolish enough to be investing in plastic slabs, will get what they deserve, but I truly wish the human race wasn't so foolish, so conformist, or so sheep-like.

 

Does that make me foolish to wish for such a pipe dream? Perhaps...

 

It doesn't make you foolish Joe, just unrealistic. To each their own, I say. If people are choosing to speculate and/or invest, hopefully it works for them. If not, they'll suffer the consequences. It's not something I do, as I feel the same way as you. I don't expect to recoup any of the dollars I put into the hobby. Personally, I haven't been buying anything, as most of the books I want are more expensive than I'm willing to pay right now. If others want the books right now, and are willing to pay for them, more power to 'em. Hopefully, they'll be happy with the books, crash or no crash.

[kimik]

I had an interesting discussion with one of the local long time store owners on Saturday regarding the state of the comic market. He said he felt that the market was starting to plateau and correct, but that he was still buying as many Gold/Silver/early Bronze books in mid to high grade that he could get his hands on. In his opinion, while the prices might drop a bit for a couple of years they would rebound and go higher over the longer term just like in past corrections for older material. Having been through the cycle a couple of times before, he is taking a longer term view which many of the doomsayers are not.

 

Granted, some of the insane multiples paid for slabbed books may not be reached again for a long time (if ever), but how many mid-late 60s and early 70s books are now settled into the 1.5 - 2 times guide range for 9.4 or even 9.6 copies? This is not too high of a multiple in my books as some dealers charge that or more for raw copies (check out Mile High's back issue prices as an example). Besides, if Bob increases prices by 10% each year in the OS guide as has been argued on another thread, then it will only take a few years for those books to reach the current multiples in value.

 

I don't know if this has been discussed before, but how far do comic values have to fall for a downturn to be considered a crash? I would be interested to hear what the board consensus is on this.

 

Happy Holidays!

 

 

[ninanina]

I think a downturn of at least 30 - 40% would be considered a crash. Anything in the 10 - 20% range would be just a correction. IMO

[sfilosa]

A stock market crash is considered 20% or more from it's high.

 

As discussed on another thread, based on Heritage's Auctions last night, there is no crash yet.

 

To me, if there was going to be a crash (excluding modern hyped up books), it would be in the late Silver-Age and Bronze-Age books. The CGC supply of many of these issues is still growing rapidly.

 

Here's how many copies of each of these books has sold since GPAnalysis started compiling this information (all in CGC 9.4 or higher):

 

Iron-Man #1 56

Captain America #100 34

Nick Fury #1 96

Hulk #181 66

 

There are many early Silver-Age books that don't have that many copies graded in VF up. Let alone sold (or flipped).

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Aman619]

good explanation, Cap'n.

I waver between pessimism and feeling things will be okay with the future of comics collecting and values. I do get upset at the repetitive tone of the domm and gloom and gloaters, but youre right, it needs to be discussed as its a big part of the hobby as we know it with so much $$$ at stake. And since it wont/cant go away, Ill try to not take offense at it.

 

[vic6string]

You have to remember when using the "history repeats itself" argument that this time around there are alot of factors that are different from the past. Comics collecting in general has been on a big downturn over the past few years, and there really isn't anything out there to show that this will change in the near future. Even with the success of the new comic movies, the impact on comic sales has been minimal (if any). Kids today are different and have way too many other things to compete for their time than they did in years past. With a limited new collector base, demand will be lower than at previous times. Also, we are now going on close to 20 years of comics being viewed as truly legitimate investments, and as such comics have been handled/treated much better over those 20 years. Bags and boards, mylars, now cgc encapsulation... along with a greater general knowledge of comic values have led to there being more stuff out on the market. Finding that box of comics from the little old lady doesn't happen nearly as often because even those little old ladies have some idea that the stuff is worth something. And speaking of the market, it is now global. Sure, that could mean more buyers, but it also means a hell of a lot more sellers. It used to be that if someone wanted a high grade copy of a silver key, they'd go to their local shops (if they had any) or call a major dealer like a Mile High. With so few sellers competing for the business, the buyer was locked into a price range. Now the same buyer can go on E-bay or some other on-line auction and find most any book from tons of different sellers. I don;t think the "history repeats itself" argument will hold true for this. Do I think comic prices will crash? Maybe...at least some of the ridiculous multiples you see on HG CGC. Will the stuff be worhless? No, probably never. I say if you like the stuff and have the money...buy it! Put the slabs up on the wall, crack em open and read em... whatever... just do what you want to do because you like doing it. If you are in this solely for the money...get out while you can. There are much better ways to invest, and someone else would be much happier with your books in their collection.

[murph0]

I guess I don't see why everyone claims that back issue collecting is on the decline..? How are people drawing these numbers? From current issue sales? Tons of collectors don't buy new books but heavily buy back issues. From Con attendance? Hasn't con attendance been on the rise each year? Am I missing some newsletter that tells us how many back issue collectors there are year-to-year?

 

Brian

[joe_collector]

I guess I don't see why everyone claims that back issue collecting is on the decline..?

 

Back issue collecting is on the decline. There are fewer collectors, fewer stores, fewer sales, but the DOLLAR AMOUNTS are way up.

 

Just like the new issue market, there are fewer people paying more for their fix.

[murph0]

There may be fewer stores but there's millions more online transactions. I don't believe you can draw any parallel to the amount of people collecting back issues by either the number of brick-and-mortar stores and/or current issue sales. JMO.

 

Brian

[joe_collector]

There may be fewer stores but there's millions more online transactions. I don't believe you can draw any parallel to the amount of people collecting back issues by either the number of brick-and-mortar stores and/or current issue sales.

 

For the time being, maybe not, but there are fewer collectors now than a decade or two ago, and the decrease in stores and new issue sales will do untold damage to the back issue market as the current base ages, decreases, and dies off.

 

Back issue sales are a microcosm of the entire comic book industry: A dwindling number of old farts paying increasing higher prices for their books.

 

Lower numbers, higher prices, steady revenues. Rinse and repeat.

[Timely]

For the time being, maybe not, but there are fewer collectors now than a decade or two ago, and the decrease in stores and new issue sales will do untold damage to the back issue market as the current base ages, decreases, and dies off.

 

Back issue sales are a microcosm of the entire comic book industry: A dwindling number of old farts paying increasing higher prices for their books.

 

Lower numbers, higher prices, steady revenues. Rinse and repeat.

 

You got any hard data to support these claims or are you just talking out of your again?

 

Timely

[joe_collector]

You got any hard data to support these claims or are you just talking out of your again?

 

Why not just come out of the closet?

 

If someone wants to lay some money down and disagree with my assertions, then yes, I can prove that there are less collectors now than in times past.

 

Are you really saying that there are more back issue collectors now, than anytime in the past few decades?

[murph0]

I never meant to say there's more collectors now than there ever was. What I don't agree with is that back issue collecting is on a constant downward spiral.

 

Brian