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Run-up in CGC prices has hit its peak?

Started by Hedge Collector,

35 posts in this topic

Hedge Collector

Hedge Collector

Posted
Posted

It seems like the fanatical CGC prices for top census keys may have hit its peak and is unsustainable.

 

I am not declaring a top this exact minute or day because tops are difficult to time. And I am well aware that people have said this off and on for the last few years or longer.

 

I am opening this up for discussion because I was or still am very close to entering the market for top census keys but I see irrational behaviour more and more that points to a higher and higher probability of unsustainability.

 

Here are the main points of concern:

 

1) Recent proliferation of auction / consignment sites. Each boasting record sales prices, one recently looking to hire a consignment director no doubt to look for and organize top selling high grade or key books because that is where the big money is made.

 

2) Recent proliferation of comic book pressing in order to achieve higher grades after re-submission.

 

3) A few high grade key buyers in the market that have been pushing prices of significant books higher. Doug at Pedigree has said this himself in his newsletter. At some point those buyers will exhaust themselves in what they want and how much they can afford. It only takes 2 buyers at an auction fight. But it also only takes an absence of one of those buyers so that there is no longer the frenzied bid up.

 

4) A bigger and bigger shift toward grading & prices and away from collecting / storylines/ traditional comic book interests.

 

5) And this is what prompted me to make this post. It absolutely takes the cake for me. Morgan Stanley: Investing in Comics 101! When Wall Street sinks its teeth into something, it is just a matter of time before it tears it apart and ruins it for all.

 

I understand prices can continue higher and further out into the future. And yes, certain books will always be in demand simply because supply of any key book of the highest grade is often just one single book by definition.

 

But I have my doubts of these crazy CGC prices. All it takes is for a few key CGC prices to go down, and prices could halt or turn quickly. And it would then take years and years for prices to ever exceed these current crazy prices again. Sound familiar?

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

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Forbush-Man

Forbush-Man

Posted
Posted
And yes I only have 15 posts, but I am not "learning the ropes." I have been collecting for over 20 years and only recently decided to enter the ultra high grade key market.

 

 

Have fun! :foryou::hi:

 

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dekeuk

dekeuk

Posted
Posted

 

Prices have probably peaked for the time being on certain titles that recently had movies (i.e. Iron Man, Watchmen)

 

And peaks have been reached for specific books like $24k for FF #112 in 9.8

 

But peaks have not been reached in other areas, especially books that have not even had their first movie made yet (like Green Lantern, Flash, Sgt. Rock, Sub-Mariner, etc.)

 

There are undervalued books out there. Many DC books from the late 1970's have no known 9.8 copies in existance at all. I would gladly pay a new peak price for certain 9.8 Batman books.

 

And the economy is bad. A booming economy would drive prices higher on most books.

 

 

 

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dikran

dikran

Posted
Posted

This is definitely NOT a buyer's market right now. I have put my buying on hold and am concentrating on taking advantage of the US housing crisis and then come back to take advantage of the comic crisis in 2011 (thumbs u

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conditionfreak

conditionfreak

Posted
Posted

As strange as it sounds. The hobby is suffering from CGCness. Everyone is chasing the labels, no matter how much they protest that they buy the book and not the label. It just ain't so , in most cases. There are exceptions to everything of course.

 

Most collectors will jump on a 9.8 of a hot book, knowing in the back of their mind that it is not going to be worth what they paid for it in a relatively short time. They ain't reading it, so why are they going for the slabbed high graded books? Investments? Bragging rights.

 

Is it really so great to have a CGC 9.8 of Miracleman #15, instead of a CGC 9.6? Is it really worth what it would cost you for that 9.8 versus what a 9.6 would cost you?

 

The smart guys (I ain't one of them), buy them and flip them right away, with no remorse except that they might rue selling too cheaply if the book continues to go up.

 

How many are scarfing up high grade GI Joes, in movie hype anticipation, hoping to flip them for a big profit? Many. Will it happen? Did it happen with Transformers II?

 

You tell me.

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Aman619

Aman619

Posted
Posted
It seems like the fanatical CGC prices for top census keys may have hit its peak and is unsustainable.

 

I am not declaring a top this exact minute or day because tops are difficult to time. And I am well aware that people have said this off and on for the last few years or longer.

 

I am opening this up for discussion because I was or still am very close to entering the market for top census keys but I see irrational behaviour more and more that points to a higher and higher probability of unsustainability.

 

Here are the main points of concern:

 

1) Recent proliferation of auction / consignment sites. Each boasting record sales prices, one recently looking to hire a consignment director no doubt to look for and organize top selling high grade or key books because that is where the big money is made.

 

2) Recent proliferation of comic book pressing in order to achieve higher grades after re-submission.

 

3) A few high grade key buyers in the market that have been pushing prices of significant books higher. Doug at Pedigree has said this himself in his newsletter. At some point those buyers will exhaust themselves in what they want and how much they can afford. It only takes 2 buyers at an auction fight. But it also only takes an absence of one of those buyers so that there is no longer the frenzied bid up.

 

4) A bigger and bigger shift toward grading & prices and away from collecting / storylines/ traditional comic book interests.

 

5) And this is what prompted me to make this post. It absolutely takes the cake for me. Morgan Stanley: Investing in Comics 101! When Wall Street sinks its teeth into something, it is just a matter of time before it tears it apart and ruins it for all.

 

I understand prices can continue higher and further out into the future. And yes, certain books will always be in demand simply because supply of any key book of the highest grade is often just one single book by definition.

 

But I have my doubts of these crazy CGC prices. All it takes is for a few key CGC prices to go down, and prices could halt or turn quickly. And it would then take years and years for prices to ever exceed these current crazy prices again. Sound familiar?

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

Comics are more and more a business of picking your spots, no longer an overall, "it will go up" approach.

 

So to answer your well written question, you need yto give us a list of the "HG Marvel Keys you are talking about," 9.4 AF15 or 9.6 WWBN32? 9.6 Iron Man 55 or 9.2 TOS 39 ??

 

Each book has a different future. IMO. So which books are you seeking to but right now?

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asr0462

asr0462

Posted
Posted

The only thing I really appreciate from CGC is the ability to provide a guarantee that a book is not restored. I've been screwed too many times on books that were restored and I didn't know it. However, I do think that CGC is inflating the prices of books beyond what they're actually worth. $24,000 for a Fantastic Four that isn't even number 1? Ridiculous.

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Green

Green

Posted
Posted
The only thing I really appreciate from CGC is the ability to provide a guarantee that a book is not restored. I've been screwed too many times on books that were restored and I didn't know it. However, I do think that CGC is inflating the prices of books beyond what they're actually worth. $24,000 for a Fantastic Four that isn't even number 1? Ridiculous.
They guarantee nothing other than they looked. There is no such thing as an unrestored label.
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oakman29

oakman29

Posted
Posted
The only thing I really appreciate from CGC is the ability to provide a guarantee that a book is not restored. I've been screwed too many times on books that were restored and I didn't know it. However, I do think that CGC is inflating the prices of books beyond what they're actually worth. $24,000 for a Fantastic Four that isn't even number 1? Ridiculous.

 

I'm sorry How is CGC inflating the prices? (shrug) The general public is inflating the prices,all CGC is is a grading service that provides a resto. check. (shrug) I too believe the auction you are mentioning (F.F.#112) was all little crazy but CGC did'nt set that price :makepoint:

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shiverbones

shiverbones

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Posted

This is why I have gone back almost entirely to readers. I have 3 short boxes of unbagged comics from the 60's to the early 90's that I love to peruse. I have 1 half box of higher grade bronze that I like to see all nice & new-looking (8.0-9.4), and a half box of GA I love. I sold all my high grade slabs except for a few covers I really love, and am having fun enjoying what I have. :cloud9: I am having a lot of fun bottom feeding, and reading.

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greggy

greggy

Posted
Posted
This is why I have gone back almost entirely to readers. I have 3 short boxes of unbagged comics from the 60's to the early 90's that I love to peruse. I have 1 half box of higher grade bronze that I like to see all nice & new-looking (8.0-9.4), and a half box of GA I love. I sold all my high grade slabs except for a few covers I really love, and am having fun enjoying what I have. :cloud9: I am having a lot of fun bottom feeding, and reading.
:(
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Mr 9.8

Mr 9.8

Posted
Posted
This is definitely NOT a buyer's market right now. I have put my buying on hold and am concentrating on taking advantage of the US housing crisis and then come back to take advantage of the comic crisis in 2011 (thumbs u
Hurm.. it's the reverse for me. I've been able to buy some KEY miracleman issue's (all cgc 9.8) on ebay for some pretty good deals. Normaly I could not afford it, BUT with this downturn in the world economy I've been able to pick up a cupple of MM books for my collection rather affordably. :grin:
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