Do today's high key comic price increases have a historical equivalent?

[COI]

These prices shocked me last month, but not today. I'm convinced they're being paid by inexperienced people with little patience.

 

Wanna bet on that, James? I'm fairly certain Brulato bought that ASM 55 9.8. He's also the owner of the sole 102 9.8 that just appeared on the census. He's on a 9.8 quest. John is going to ask him about the 55 in person at the SDCC, so place your bets now.

[Bronty]

Who can buy it all when one key costs so much nowadays.

 

that's a very good point also. I'm sure a lot of people have given up on runs due to cost and just focus on favorite issues (keys)

[maloney414]

This is true for myself. I've been seriously collecting keys and 1st appearances of Silver Age Marvels for the past 2 years.

 

Not because I'm investing or have interest in their future values. I just love comics and have wanted to own these books for some time.

 

I have a question for the comic book store owners out there that may be related to this topic.

 

What is the average age of your customers???

 

The reason I ask, is because comics were extremely popular in the late 80's early 90's. (Jim Lee X-Men and McFarlane Spidey's.) I was at that middle school/early HS age during that time and a lot of people I knew were reading comics. Totally enjoying them.

 

Fast forward to this time period and my age group now have jobs and money to spend. Could simpy be that rule of wait 20 years for popular things to be collectable.

 

I know I was the first kid amongst my friends to read comics and the only one to keep reading them. But I do remember that time period being "popular and cool" to read comics.

 

 

 

 

[fantastic_four]

Wanna bet on that, James? I'm fairly certain Brulato bought that ASM 55 9.8. He's also the owner of the sole 102 9.8 that just appeared on the census. He's on a 9.8 quest. John is going to ask him about the 55 in person at the SDCC, so place your bets now.

 

I won't bet, and I actually edited that statement to say they're being "fueled" by inexperienced, impatient people. I wouldn't be surprised if Brulato bought that ASM 55, but I would be surprised if he didn't pay that high a price specifically because of either his knowledge or Doug's knowledge that those other deep pockets are out there right now burning money without fully informed regard as to the return on their cost.

[fantastic_four]

This is true for myself. I've been seriously collecting keys and 1st appearances of Silver Age Marvels for the past 2 years.

 

What grades?

[500Club]

Over the last 2 to 3 years, key comic prices for popular titles have increased at a rate that is dramatically higher than their average increases. I've tracked increases ranging from 50% to 200% over this recent period of time on all of the most popular Golden, Silver, and Bronze age popular keys. Has this happened before in the past?

 

Certainly, individual keys have enjoyed dramatic increases over a short period of time. Marvel Comics #1, Action #1, and Detective #27 have jumped 50% to 100% or more in the past, and if they hadn't, they'd never have inflated to the huge prices they're at today. But I'm not sure that all of the popular keys have experienced the kind of price jump they have the last few years. The reason I'm asking this question is because it may be a general indicator as to how sustainable the recent increases are. My current hypothesis is that ALL of the titles increasing similarly over such a short period is generally a bad indicator--that something outside of the hobby is causing it. And if that's true, then this externally-generated demand is at great risk of decreasing or disappearing once that external factor changes. The most likely factor that to be causing these increases is the overall bad economy. I suspect that if the economy recovers, key prices with flatten or decrease for a period of time that will roughly cause the values of keys to be in 3-6 years what they would've been anyway without the recent increases.

 

Does anyone recall a time similar to this in the history of the vintage comics market?

 

We've fractionated the market into HG, super HG and ultra HG. If you subtract the upward surge in the ultra HG books, I wonder what the growth of key book prices would look like? i.e. take a book like FF 48 in 8.5....

 

On the topic, I see the Avengers 16 9.6 on CLink is at 22.5K.

[Big Daddy]

I tend to believe besides internet auctions and cgc you also have a collector base that is getting a bit older now with a little bit more of discretionary income to purchase these books. Where in the past it was a smaller group buying them now you have a bigger group competing and they all want the same books.

[COI]

I wouldn't be surprised if Brulato bought that ASM 55, but I would be surprised if he didn't pay that high a price specifically because of either his knowledge or Doug's knowledge that those other deep pockets are out there burning money without caring.

 

Maybe, but have you also considered that someone like Brulato, who purchased primo books for pennies on the dollar pre-CGC, and who is actively pressing and selling books now, has made enough money from this hobby that he's able to justify spend exorbitant amounts on individual books he may want for his collection, and still come out ahead on his collection when calculated as a whole?

[Aman619]

Wanna bet on that, James? I'm fairly certain Brulato bought that ASM 55 9.8. He's also the owner of the sole 102 9.8 that just appeared on the census. He's on a 9.8 quest. John is going to ask him about the 55 in person at the SDCC, so place your bets now.

 

I won't bet, and I actually edited that statement to say they're being "fueled" by inexperienced, impatient people. I wouldn't be surprised if Brulato bought that ASM 55, but I would be surprised if he didn't pay that high a price specifically because of either his knowledge or Doug's knowledge that those other deep pockets are out there right now burning money without fully informed regard as to the return on their cost.

 

 

If it was Brulato, his position in the hobby and his collection and his motives at this point are pretty much unique to him and "three" other guys. (a handful of guys.)

 

that basically, it doesnt matter how much any single book costs to upgrade the "unimprovable runs" they own (which they are into for what amounts to pennies today.) Its all good. Even if its "far too much?" like 15K for a common in 9.8? ---big deal! Maybe the market will absorb it, maybe it wont. But it wont be flipped any time soon so who cares.

 

[fantastic_four]

We've fractionated the market into HG, super HG and ultra HG. If you subtract the upward surge in the ultra HG books, I wonder what the growth of key book prices would look like? i.e. take a book like FF 48 in 8.5....

 

On the topic, I see the Avengers 16 9.6 on CLink is at 22.5K.

 

You've picked two keys that aren't good comparisons for now due to special attributes that they possess. FF 48 is governed by the fact that high grade copies have survived in extraordinarily high supply due to being a part of at least one warehouse find, the Mile High 2 collection. There may be some other source for that book as well--all I know is there's just a ton of them out there, a disproportionately large number compared to almost any other key. Other Marvel titles from that same month are in similar high supply, with Spidey 33 being the only example I can think of off-hand.

 

Avengers 16 is being fueled by movie hype. The reason it's high I believe to be different than the rise of most other keys.

[COI]

that basically, it doesnt matter how much any single book costs to upgrade the "unimprovable runs" they own (which they are into for what amounts to pennies today.) Its all good. Even if its "far too much?" like 15K for a common in 9.8? ---big deal! Maybe the market will absorb it, maybe it wont. But it wont be flipped any time soon so who cares.

 

Exactly.

 

If he spends 16K on his 55, but has a 56 in 9.8 that he has $100 in (hypothetically), what does it matter?

[joe_collector]

Where in the past it was a smaller group buying them now you have a bigger group competing and they all want the same books.

 

It's actually the opposite, and there are fewer comic collectors now than even 10-20 years ago. Fandom numbers have absolutely nothing to do with it.

 

The difference is CGC, with the Internet, EBay. consignment sites, and the current movie fad checking in to fuel the current speculative phase.

[Aman619]

a bigger group competing for the top books was I believe his point. Yes the hobby is dying cause nobody reads or collects them anymore. got it. But ironically, fueling the rise on the top end is greater demand for them. They arent NEW SPECULATORS, but existing comics collectors with a shifted focus.

 

[Currin Comics]

Well, I got completely of the "finish the run train" 4 to 5 years ago, and strictly concentrate on BA and SA keys, 1st app etc. Now I have alot more raw than slabbed right now, but most of my raws would be considered HG, and while none will be the top on the census, they still are not slabbed.....but one day will be. The main reason for this shift was due to the amount of $$$ I was seeing the Keys go for in numerous places etc. The amount of money flying around for keys, just can't be ignored the last several years and IMO changed the way people view collecting and comics in general, and CGC has helped this come about-good or bad, that's were we are at right now. I just figure, the more I horde of say.....WBN 32 or TOD 10 for instance the larger % of future buyers will be availabel to me. I do believe SA UHG will bring big $ regardless of Key or not for the foreseable future. This narrowed collecting viewpoint IMO has tremedously allowed the price to steadly skyrocket the last several years-Peace CC.

 

 

[DarkKnightReturns]

Well, I got completely of the "finish the run train" 4 to 5 years ago, and strictly concentrate on BA and SA keys, 1st app etc. Now I have alot more raw than slabbed right now, but most of my raws would be considered HG, and while none will be the top on the census, they still are not slabbed.....but one day will be. The main reason for this shift was due to the amount of $$$ I was seeing the Keys go for in numerous places etc. The amount of money flying around for keys, just can't be ignored the last several years and IMO changed the way people view collecting and comics in general, and CGC has helped this come about-good or bad, that's were we are at right now. I just figure, the more I horde of say.....WBN 32 or TOD 10 for instance the larger % of future buyers will be availabel to me. I do believe SA UHG will bring big $ regardless of Key or not for the foreseable future. This narrowed collecting viewpoint IMO has tremedously allowed the price to steadly skyrocket the last several years-Peace CC.

 

 

I don't call that collecting anymore. Hoarding for profit maybe?

[Currin Comics]

Well, I got completely of the "finish the run train" 4 to 5 years ago, and strictly concentrate on BA and SA keys, 1st app etc. Now I have alot more raw than slabbed right now, but most of my raws would be considered HG, and while none will be the top on the census, they still are not slabbed.....but one day will be. The main reason for this shift was due to the amount of $$$ I was seeing the Keys go for in numerous places etc. The amount of money flying around for keys, just can't be ignored the last several years and IMO changed the way people view collecting and comics in general, and CGC has helped this come about-good or bad, that's were we are at right now. I just figure, the more I horde of say.....WBN 32 or TOD 10 for instance the larger % of future buyers will be availabel to me. I do believe SA UHG will bring big $ regardless of Key or not for the foreseable future. This narrowed collecting viewpoint IMO has tremedously allowed the price to steadly skyrocket the last several years-Peace CC.

 

 

I don't call that collecting anymore. Hoarding for profit maybe?

 

I could not disagree with, nor would I try.

[Hedge Collector]

I believe these prices are unsustainable simply because when you do the math, it will not add up.

 

Every single GA, SA, and BA book has a top census by definition. Sometimes multiple copies at the top census. For the often absurd prices that are being paid for these books, if you multiply it times every single decent GA, SA, or BA book of any interest out there, then I don't think the total amount of money coming into the market can hold up the total amount of money required to sustain these prices.

 

So it begs the question - how are prices holding up? I believe here is a constant rotation between books being acquired and sold. This gives the illusion of price appreciation. Witness many top census books now hitting all the auction sites, yet at the same time top census books are hitting top prices. There is a rotation going on. You can even call it musical chairs. When it stops nobody knows.

 

I've seen it before in all other markets. The people who argue that this can go on for a while will use the same arguments as they did in stocks, real estate, etc. The people who argue we are at the top will also use the same arguments as they did in stocks, real estate, etc. But the bottom line is, the music will stop. It always does when you deviate so far from the mean.

 

Don't get stuck with that Spiday #55 when the music does stop. You might just realize that it might have been better to use that money to take that vacation you always wanted rather than put it into something that "merely" sports a "9.8" in the corner and is "top census."

 

But what do I know!

[MR.COMICBOOK]

I see the 2012 to 2013 period as a key period with the Marvel Silver Age keys, all the major Marvel movies will have been out by then.If they movies are decent they will fuel even higher prices or if the movies are lackluster that would cool interest in them significantly.

[DarkKnightReturns]

I think the comic market will eventually come down a little for these crazy high grade prices once more people see the money to be made and sub more books to CGC to try to cash in on the ultra HG books.

 

 

[Bronty]

yeah I can't believe we've gone this many posts without someone bringing up the movies. Its probably helped quite a bit (not altogether sure why, since its not like johnny moviegoer is buying these books, but maybe the old guard just gets reinvigorated by seeing their favorites onscreen).