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What era of hi grade slabs are MOST likely to see price declines in next 5 yrs?

Started by dekeuk,

What era of hi grade slabs are MOST likely to see price declines in next 5 years?  

411 members have voted

  1. 1. What era of hi grade slabs are MOST likely to see price declines in next 5 years?

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27 posts in this topic

dekeuk

dekeuk

Posted
Posted

 

In general (including all genres) what era of high grade slabs is most likely to experience price declines in the next 5 years?

 

"High grade" means high grade books for that particular era (i.e. 8.0 is high grade for pre-1945, whereas 9.8 is high grade for the 1980's)

 

 

Opinions?

 

 

 

 

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rjpb

rjpb

Posted
Posted

2000-2009 is the obvious choice. Many current HOT titles cool off pretty fast. Books/artists/titles may go in and out of fashion for older stuff, but generally, the longer a book remains in demand, the more solidified it's value becomes. The exception for older books would be for previously obscure books that tie in with a recent popular story arc. When the story arc fades from memory, so will the tie-ins.

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PokerKid

PokerKid

Posted
Posted

Even moreso than the current books, those books stockpiled back when there were tons of collectors may make the biggest falls. There is a misperception of how rare many of these books are. As prices hit high enough, more and more get slabbed.

 

August 2007 - $546

July 2008 - $461

Tonight on Heritage - $101

 

85568.jpg.f81b046cbc50270239ad4fe9ac66c21b.jpg

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Aces

Aces

Posted
Posted
Even moreso than the current books, those books stockpiled back when there were tons of collectors may make the biggest falls. There is a misperception of how rare many of these books are. As prices hit high enough, more and more get slabbed.

 

August 2007 - $546

July 2008 - $461

Tonight on Heritage - $101

85568.jpg

 

 

It doesn't have white pages. :baiting:

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PokerKid

PokerKid

Posted
Posted
Even moreso than the current books, those books stockpiled back when there were tons of collectors may make the biggest falls. There is a misperception of how rare many of these books are. As prices hit high enough, more and more get slabbed.

 

August 2007 - $546

July 2008 - $461

Tonight on Heritage - $101

85568.jpg

 

 

It doesn't have white pages. :baiting:

 

Doesn't seem to be the primary factor. The $461 in July 2008 was OW/W, I sold my white pager for $425 immediately after that to the same buyer.

 

 

This year on Heritage:

Sunday, March 22, 2009 - $202 - OW/W

Sunday, June 14, 2009 - $191 - OW/W

Sunday, July 26, 2009 - $155 - OW/W

Sunday, August 16, 2009 - $131 - OW/W

Sunday, August 30, 2009 - $119 - White

Sunday, September 6, 2009 $101 - OW/W

 

 

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Bosco685

Bosco685

Posted
Posted
Even moreso than the current books, those books stockpiled back when there were tons of collectors may make the biggest falls. There is a misperception of how rare many of these books are. As prices hit high enough, more and more get slabbed.

 

August 2007 - $546

July 2008 - $461

Tonight on Heritage - $101

 

New Mutants 87 CGC 9.8s are seeing the same big drop. Heritage has had a few sell for close to the $100 range, where a year ago you would see $200 (+) prices no problem.

 

New Mutants 87 CGC 9.8 - $101.58 (w/Buyer's Premium)

 

That's why when forumites post this book in the sales forum around the $170-$180 range, the books sit for a little while. There are too many selling for much less through other sales venues.

 

It must be the fees on here that drive up prices. :insane:

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FlyingDonut

FlyingDonut

Posted
Posted
Even moreso than the current books, those books stockpiled back when there were tons of collectors may make the biggest falls. There is a misperception of how rare many of these books are. As prices hit high enough, more and more get slabbed.

 

August 2007 - $546

July 2008 - $461

Tonight on Heritage - $101

 

New Mutants 87 CGC 9.8s are seeing the same big drop. Heritage has had a few sell for close to the $100 range, where a year ago you would see $200 (+) prices no problem.

 

New Mutants 87 CGC 9.8 - $101.58 (w/Buyer's Premium)

 

That's why when forumites post this book in the sales forum around the $170-$180 range, the books sit for a little while. There are too many selling for much less through other sales venues.

 

It must be the fees on here that drive up prices. :insane:

 

I think NM 98 is a special case - people were seriously speculating on that book because of the Deadpool appearance in the Wolverine movie. Movie sucked, Deadpool sucked, book tanked.

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Bosco685

Bosco685

Posted
Posted
Could be that Heritage has a pitiful market for post 1980 books. I bet there are very few customers in the whole nation who buy newer books that have ever logged into Heritage.

I would agree with this assumption if Heritage wasn't bringing decent prices before on New Mutants 87 CGC 9.8s.

 

$230.64 (Nov 30, 2008)

$191.20 (Mar 8, 2009)

$203.15 (Mar 15, 2009)

$179.25 (Mar 15, 2009)

$143.40 (Apr 26, 2009)

$173.28 (Jun 14, 2009)

$121.89 (Jul 12, 2009)

$113.53 (Jul 26, 2009)

$101.58 (Aug 2, 2009)

 

Then there were two group sales of NM 87 and NM 98

 

$179.25 (Aug 9, 2009) - NM 87 CGC 9.8, NM 98 CGC 9.6 - AVG $89.63

$262.90 (Aug 30, 2009) - NM 87 & 98 CGC 9.8 - AVG $131.45

 

So there was a decent market on Heritage for NM 87, but in a short period it trended down quickly. It may be a limited audience that utilizes Heritage and those that wanted one, picked their copies up. But then the same can be said of ComicConnect, ComicLink, and Pedigree.

 

My feeling is 80s books are going to be challenged to maintain prices as they were so heavily speculated upon. NM 87 already has 225 CGC 9.8 books in the census, so who knows how many more are on their way?

 

NM87_census.jpg

 

And there are books from the 80s the Bruce/Bronze Age Godfather even felt would potentially never see 9.8 grades, and those are starting to pop up often.

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Scrooge

Scrooge

Posted
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This year on Heritage:

Sunday, March 22, 2009 - $202 - OW/W

Sunday, June 14, 2009 - $191 - OW/W

Sunday, July 26, 2009 - $155 - OW/W

Sunday, August 16, 2009 - $131 - OW/W

Sunday, August 30, 2009 - $119 - White

Sunday, September 6, 2009 $101 - OW/W

 

I love those #s. This is what happens each time you remove a bidder (since she won the book with the highest bid in the previous auction). Reads like a great demand curve.

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Topnotchman

Topnotchman

Posted
Posted

The 80's key books have had almost double if not triple the amount of submissions this year over last year. Thats adding alot of supply to a limited demand market. Heritage has what I would call a limited number of modern slab collectors compared to Ebay. Plus they start all there books as auctions with no reserves, so there is always something going cheap.

 

Has anyone noticed basically all the comic book movies this year really stink compared to how awesome they were last year. The overall economy this year is in the tank compared to 12-18 months ago.

 

An 200-300% increased supply, less demand due to poor economy, bad movies equal no hype. A spiral down in price on books with a dramatic increase in volume is almost unavoidable.

 

 

 

 

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