Statistically, according to CGC census, the scarcest and most common JIMs are...

[ChasingKingKirby]

Here's an example of the hurdle that we face, using price as part of the equation No sales for a 84 above 8.5, ever.. (Using GPA as the tool to report...) As far as determining keyness, a 9.4 issue 85 went for 10000 not to long ago, but a 9.4 issue 112 went for less than half that in the same time-frame. Price in this case, obviously does not indicate keyness... 85 is just much tougher to get, so scarcity is driving price and not keyness.

[Scrooge]

Sure it won't be reliable but we're talking funny books anyway.

 

Yes, this will be a statistical hornet's nest but it's fun trying it out. 1) We know that there is measurement error in the # of slabs due to ghost books. 2) We also have to assume that the same percentage of books for each issue survive in high grade. 3) ... etc. BUT I still think it'd be fun to try and see what turns up and pit it to on-the-ground knowledge.

[Scrooge]

Here's an example of the hurdle that we face, using price as part of the equation No sales for a 84 above 8.5, ever.. (Using GPA as the tool to report...) As far as determining keyness, a 9.4 issue 85 went for 10000 not to long ago, but a 9.4 issue 112 went for less than half that in the same time-frame. Price in this case, obviously does not indicate keyness... 85 is just much tougher to get, so scarcity is driving price and not keyness.

 

I think you're over-zealous using actual prices for this. OSPG is more than enough for our purpose.

[Bronty]

Here's an example of the hurdle that we face, using price as part of the equation No sales for a 84 above 8.5, ever.. (Using GPA as the tool to report...) As far as determining keyness, a 9.4 issue 85 went for 10000 not to long ago, but a 9.4 issue 112 went for less than half that in the same time-frame. Price in this case, obviously does not indicate keyness... 85 is just much tougher to get, so scarcity is driving price and not keyness.

 

I think you're over-zealous using actual prices for this. OSPG is more than enough for our purpose.

 

either that (great minds think alike or the gpa data can just be estimated in many cases. If we know what 113,114, and 115 have sold for and the census #s are similar to 116, but no sales for 116... well I know its fudging but lets face it the 116 value is probably the same as 115.

 

the point re 85 and scarcity vs. keyness. Who the heck cares if its scarcity or keyness driving up the price. People submit books that they think/know will be valuable. So to the extent you are trying to isolate a variable that identifies the likelihood of submission of say a 9.4, its all about price and nothing else, whether that price is derived from scarcity or from it being a battle issue or from being the first appearance of Binky.

[ChasingKingKirby]

Here's an example of the hurdle that we face, using price as part of the equation No sales for a 84 above 8.5, ever.. (Using GPA as the tool to report...) As far as determining keyness, a 9.4 issue 85 went for 10000 not to long ago, but a 9.4 issue 112 went for less than half that in the same time-frame. Price in this case, obviously does not indicate keyness... 85 is just much tougher to get, so scarcity is driving price and not keyness.

 

I think you're over-zealous using actual prices for this. OSPG is more than enough for our purpose.

 

Nope. Not over-zealous. And it doesn't matter to me either way what you do with the data, just pointing out the potential pitfalls I'm a Technical Business Analyst, so I'm trained to do that, it just happens automatically...

 

By the way, OSPG is absolutely useless for determining the price of a slab, just my

[Bronty]

certainly there are other issues that you've identified, like resubmissions but as scrooge said I think it would still be interesting if not statistically reliable

[ChasingKingKirby]

certainly there are other issues that you've identified, like resubmissions but as scrooge said I think it would still be interesting if not statistically reliable

 

Certainly can't hurt. Don't get me wrong, I'm not opposed to it, I just don't think it indicates anything reliably.

[Scrooge]

Nope. Not over-zealous. And it doesn't matter to me either way what you do with the data, just pointing out the potential pitfalls I'm a Technical Business Analyst, so I'm trained to do that, it just happens automatically...

 

By the way, OSPG is absolutely useless for determining the price of a slab, just my

 

Thanks for being condescending. I think you've made my day complete. (thumbs u

[Bronty]

now now boys! Both of you make a good point, the OSPG data is there and is better than nothing, but at the same time isn't real reliable especially for high grade late # issues. No need to over it

[ChasingKingKirby]

Nope. Not over-zealous. And it doesn't matter to me either way what you do with the data, just pointing out the potential pitfalls I'm a Technical Business Analyst, so I'm trained to do that, it just happens automatically...

 

By the way, OSPG is absolutely useless for determining the price of a slab, just my

 

Thanks for being condescending. I think you've made my day complete. (thumbs u

 

Condescending? Really? Wasn't my intent. I think you misinterpreted. My intent was to explain away my reticence. If that equals condescending, then okay, glad I completed your day.

[ChasingKingKirby]

now now boys! Both of you make a good point, the OSPG data is there and is better than nothing, but at the same time isn't real reliable especially for high grade late # issues. No need to over it

 

Didn't mean for it to devolve into a virtual throw-down, just trying to make my point. This is exactly the sort of discussion that I hoped to generate with this thread.

[Bronty]

Sure, I understand where you're coming from and get your point. I think where scrooge is coming from is that any kind of analysis about comic #s hasn't a snowball's chance in hell of ever being 100% accurate (who's to say there aren't 100 NM copies of JIM 84 in my basement?) so there's no point in taking it too too seriously. I understand that not taking it too seriously probably goes against all of your training but its an equally valid perspective I think.

 

[MrBedrock]

Nerd alert

Around here isn't that a given?

[Scrooge]

Nerd alert

Around here isn't that a given?

 

 

Sans OSPG, I grabbed CPG prices for and giggles. I ended up only keeping the Dummy for the warehouse find. Using a dummy for the Key books in conjunction with the CPG price guide killed the specification, esp. with the dummy for 83. The CPG price is clearly indicating the demand for the book. I used both a month count and a year count but I preferred in the end the spec with the month count. I include the predicted count, the variance to actual and the value as a percent.

 

Note, I have never bought a JiM issue and know nothing about the SA market. I'll let you run the interpretation of the data.

 

The most under-represented in the census is # 94 as highlighted and it seems that 86 is an easy book to find in HG. Of the stretch from 90 to 95 which seems tough, the easiest one is 92. It appears that 112 might be undervalued in the CPG guide (at least that's how I interpret the variance). For 119, either the book is tough to find, or the cover must suck royally to be so unrepresented.

 

 

[Aman619]

wow.. fascinating. it would be great to finesse this process with as many variables as we can, and apply iy across the board. Ill bet Greg might be tempted to add this functionality to his site... I would be yet another tool for us to hone in on collecting goals: "toughest issues in grade" for each title.

[Drummy]

Although I've been out of comics for a long time, I do have a couple price points for this thread. Back in 2003 or so I bought a JIM #84 in 9.0 oww from Jim Watson (is that his name out there on the west coast?), who had a major website selling tons of HG comics, mostly DC's. $2850 or thereabouts. I sold it to another collector a year or two later. I also bought an FF #13 from him in 9.2 oww that now resides in fantastic_four's fine collection; he had great stuff. Pricey, for then, but great!

 

I also had the crazy good fortune of emailing back and forth with an Ebay dealer once about a few FF's that they had put up on Ebay, also in 2003. I asked if they had any more FF's to sell to see if I could meet their BIN price pre-Ebay (they had an FF #7 and #10 in 8.5 white up previously). Their response was, "No more FF's, but we have a Journey Into Mystery #90 in 9.2 with white pages." Knowing it was pretty scarce, I bought it at their BIN price and sold it for about $2800 later that year. No pressing for that book, so by now I'm sure it's in a 9.4 or 9.6 holder as it was beautiful.

 

Hope that helps -- probably not...

 

Dan

 

 

[Scrooge]

Check Tales to Astonish

 

 

I'll probably get to that, I did do a "Universal" ranking on many of the main Timely titles. If anyone is interested in that, let me know and I'll post it in a new thread. Some of the results were quite interesting.

 

If I re-run the analysis with TTA, what issue range should I look at? And is there a warehouse issue in that batch?

[VintageComics]

That helps a lot!

 

Care to hook me up with the buyers of the JIM #84 and JIM #92 via PM?

 

[ChasingKingKirby]

Check Tales to Astonish

 

 

I'll probably get to that, I did do a "Universal" ranking on many of the main Timely titles. If anyone is interested in that, let me know and I'll post it in a new thread. Some of the results were quite interesting.

 

If I re-run the analysis with TTA, what issue range should I look at? And is there a warehouse issue in that batch?

 

For TTA, I would assume that the run would be 27 and 35 thru 99. I put together the list of Strange Tales from 101 to 140. I'll post it later.

 

 

[Aces]

Check Tales to Astonish

 

 

I'll probably get to that, I did do a "Universal" ranking on many of the main Timely titles. If anyone is interested in that, let me know and I'll post it in a new thread. Some of the results were quite interesting.

 

If I re-run the analysis with TTA, what issue range should I look at? And is there a warehouse issue in that batch?

 

For TTA, I would assume that the run would be 27 and 35 thru 99. I put together the list of Strange Tales from 101 to 140. I'll post it later.

 

Or just do the pre-Hulk issues 27, 35 - 59