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Modern HG CGC - Current Census Numbers and Values

Started by 14 of spades,

24 posts in this topic

14 of spades

14 of spades

Posted
Posted

Hi

 

I've heard some folks here refer to the increase in census numbers and falling prices for HG moderns.

 

For various reasons, I've been completely out of the CGC loop since about 2005. This means I haven't followed any prices, nor followed any census numbers. The last time I checked a census number was before they had the login for it, until today.

 

This auction that just finished now surprised me:

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/SECRET-WARS-8-CGC-9-8_W0QQitemZ310167671991QQcmdZViewItemQQptZLH_DefaultDomain_0?hash=item48376f14b7&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14QQautorefreshZtrue

 

Wasn't this, a key 80s book, at some point going for some serious coin? I remember wanting a HG copy myself but thinking I'd have to "settle" for 9.6. The last time I was aware of its price (say in 2005), perhaps it was undergoing the Spider Man 1 and 2 movies bump. But $73? So I decided to do some investigation.

 

The HG census as follows:

 

Mint 10.0 0 0 0 0 0

Mint 9.9 11 0 0 0 11

Near Mint/Mint 9.8 898 0 39 1 938

Near Mint + 9.6 1139 1 34 0 1174

 

Over 2000 in HG? IIRC, I'd estimate the census was about 10% of this even 4 years ago.

 

I remember a GI Joe 21 didn't even exist in 9.8 then either.

 

Anyways - just some rambling. But it's shocking (or is it?) how many HG copper keys are out there.

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Foolkiller

Foolkiller

Posted
Posted

Not shocking at all, if you understood the modern market. There is literally tons of this stuff available. TONS.

 

It's the same as believing that Hulk 181 or FF 48 or Iron man 1 are in any way rare books (more rare than these of course).

 

I've never been a big believer in moderns -- and to me, a hot modern is just fodder to sell as soon as humanly possible because it can only drop once people start getting them graded.

 

The very rare exception are things like Ultimate Spidey 1, but how long before that drops now that the series has been rebooted? My guess is, not too far away.

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Aman619

Aman619

Posted
Posted

shouldnt be, though.

 

sadly many saw low early census numbers, calculated the odds of super high grade copies actually surviving.... and messed up their math. When you select a fresh copy, and quickly slide it into a bag and board, and never take it out of the box you shoved it into between 100s of other similarly preserved comics, should it be a surprise that it is still in mint condition just 20 years later?

 

there are a lot of personal time capsules out there and more and more are finding their way to Sarasota every year.

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Foolkiller

Foolkiller

Posted
Posted
shouldnt be, though.

 

sadly many saw low early census numbers, calculated the odds of super high grade copies actually surviving.... and messed up their math. When you select a fresh copy, and quickly slide it into a bag and board, and never take it out of the box you shoved it into between 100s of other similarly preserved comics, should it be a surprise that it is still in mint condition just 20 years later?

 

there are a lot of personal time capsules out there and more and more are finding their way to Sarasota every year.

 

just on this book alone, a dealer at a recent show had an unopened case he was selling from, and in a recent collection I bought, there 100 Secret Wars 8s, all 9.6/9.8

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14 of spades

14 of spades

Posted
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Posted

Wow. A bronze age book now.

 

Hulk 181

 

Mint 9.9 1 0 0 0 1

Near Mint/Mint 9.8 32 0 1 0 33

Near Mint + 9.6 131 0 2 5 138

 

I still remember when there were only two 9.8 copies.

 

So quite literally, a 10-fold increase in about 4 years...

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Bosco685

Bosco685

Posted
Posted
Wow. A bronze age book now.

 

Hulk 181

 

Mint 9.9 1 0 0 0 1

Near Mint/Mint 9.8 32 0 1 0 33

Near Mint + 9.6 131 0 2 5 138

 

I still remember when there were only two 9.8 copies.

We did a thread a few weeks ago and posting some samples of key books at one point considered tough to find in high grade. The numbers were shocking.

 

Here's a snapshot of GI Joe 21 that was a big increase from the 3 CGC 9.8s beginning-of-year.

 

Gijoe21_census.jpg

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Mr 9.8

Mr 9.8

Posted
Posted
shouldnt be, though.

 

sadly many saw low early census numbers, calculated the odds of super high grade copies actually surviving.... and messed up their math. When you select a fresh copy, and quickly slide it into a bag and board, and never take it out of the box you shoved it into between 100s of other similarly preserved comics, should it be a surprise that it is still in mint condition just 20 years later?

 

there are a lot of personal time capsules out there and more and more are finding their way to Sarasota every year.

 

just on this book alone, a dealer at a recent show had an unopened case he was selling from, and in a recent collection I bought, there 100 Secret Wars 8s, all 9.6/9.8

I wonder if there is a unopened case of HULK #181's out there some where? hm
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14 of spades

14 of spades

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Wow. A bronze age book now.

 

Hulk 181

 

Mint 9.9 1 0 0 0 1

Near Mint/Mint 9.8 32 0 1 0 33

Near Mint + 9.6 131 0 2 5 138

 

I still remember when there were only two 9.8 copies.

We did a thread a few weeks ago and posting some samples of key books at one point considered tough to find in high grade. The numbers were shocking.

 

Here's a snapshot of GI Joe 21 that was a big increase from the 3 CGC 9.8s beginning-of-year.

 

I caught some of that thread. What a big increase, and just this year.

 

That did take some time to come out of the wood work though.

 

 

 

Has any mainstream (Marvel/DC) copper book determined to be truly "rare"?

 

Which book bucks the census trends the most?

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paperheart

paperheart

Posted
Posted
Not shocking at all, if you understood the modern market. There is literally tons of this stuff available. TONS.

 

It's the same as believing that Hulk 181 or FF 48 or Iron man 1 are in any way rare books (more rare than these of course).

 

I've never been a big believer in moderns -- and to me, a hot modern is just fodder to sell as soon as humanly possible because it can only drop once people start getting them graded.

 

gospel.

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sckao

sckao

Posted
Posted

I think SW #8 peaked around $200.00 (in 9.8) in 2004 thereabouts...

 

Copies came out of the woodwork around 2007 and the prices started slowly dropping.

 

Spider-man #3 and the anemic Venom didn't help. (shrug)

 

 

 

 

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PokerKid

PokerKid

Posted
Posted
I think SW #8 peaked around $200.00 (in 9.8) in 2004 thereabouts...

 

Copies came out of the woodwork around 2007 and the prices started slowly dropping.

 

Spider-man #3 and the anemic Venom didn't help. (shrug)

 

 

 

 

Top sales in GPAnalysis show two for $349 in middle of 2007 - but also many sales for under $100 later that same year. In 2006 nearly all sales in the $100+ range.

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sckao

sckao

Posted
Posted
I think SW #8 peaked around $200.00 (in 9.8) in 2004 thereabouts...

 

Copies came out of the woodwork around 2007 and the prices started slowly dropping.

 

Spider-man #3 and the anemic Venom didn't help. (shrug)

 

 

 

 

Top sales in GPAnalysis show two for $349 in middle of 2007 - but also many sales for under $100 later that same year. In 2006 nearly all sales in the $100+ range.

 

You need to look at the chart/graph.

 

 

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