Do Historical Market Trends Indicate it is Time to Sell?

[14 of spades]

You're mistaken. He referenced the elliot wave theorist right there in your post 1 excerpt.

He is the principle author for that publication. It's just a newsletter to make additional income off his flawed ideas.

 

So I guess I am. But it seems he predicted the coin crash.

 

Statistics is your friend-- get to know it. He also predicted a dozen other things that didn't happen. Eventually, you'll get familiar with the terms "cherry picking" and "hindsight is 20/20."

 

Just like all the (for profit) newsletters that advertise-- had you bought cisco when we recommended it in 1990, you would have made 10,0000% return!!!! Buy our rag and profit like we did (yeah, right... off subscriptions)! They conveniently forget to mentioned the thousand other picks that didn't do so well.

 

OK. I'm not familiar with this guy, other than I found his book on a Google search.

 

With respect to the Chapter 19 excerpt I posted, is there any reasoning that he presents that you believe is unsound?

[bronze_rules]

You're mistaken. He referenced the elliot wave theorist right there in your post 1 excerpt.

He is the principle author for that publication. It's just a newsletter to make additional income off his flawed ideas.

 

So I guess I am. But it seems he predicted the coin crash.

 

Statistics is your friend-- get to know it. He also predicted a dozen other things that didn't happen. Eventually, you'll get familiar with the terms "cherry picking" and "hindsight is 20/20."

 

Just like all the (for profit) newsletters that advertise-- had you bought cisco when we recommended it in 1990, you would have made 10,0000% return!!!! Buy our rag and profit like we did (yeah, right... off subscriptions)! They conveniently forget to mentioned the thousand other picks that didn't do so well.

 

OK. I'm not familiar with this guy, other than I found his book on a Google search.

 

With respect to the Chapter 19 excerpt I posted, is there any reasoning that he presents that you believe is unsound?

 

Without going into too much detail, I will say that I have spent years studying this field.

He's published many books and that made a lot of money for him, however, they contained specious and appealing predictions that often turned out to be prognosticated at the worst possible time.

 

Like, get out in 95-96, the great bear is upon us (the book you referenced-- 'at the crest...') !. Following his advice and or/shorting would have got you killed as the bull raged on for 5 more years, slaughtering bears.

 

Then he comes out with conquer the crash, advising to head to the hills, get out of the market and buy gold, right at the very bottom of 03. That kind of advice, you can do without.

 

The world of technical analysis is filled with ideas peddled as sound theory, yet, are mired with subjective concepts akin to astrology.

 

Just keep it simple; if things seem to be exploding exponentially in price for no rhyme nor reason, eventually they correct (and often fast, like a waterfall as speculators scramble to not get caught holding the bag). Happens in just about every market.

Happened to comics in 90s. However the famous quote is often sage advice,

"markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." J.M. Keynes.

 

 

[Bronty]

Not to mention of all this collectibles analysis is pre-internet. For good or bad the landscape is radically different so I wouldn't care too much about somebody predicting the coint crash 20 yrs ago

[bronze_rules]

Not to mention of all this collectibles analysis is pre-internet. For good or bad the landscape is radically different so I wouldn't care too much about somebody predicting the coint crash 20 yrs ago

 

On the contrary: that's the beauty of human nature, it is for the most part, unchanging.

Bubbles and Crashes happen every now and then, it's natures way of evolving and correcting itself. Someone once said something to the effect that history rhymes not repeats.

[FlyingDonut]

That author has an absolutely horrible track record in making predictions regarding the market.

 

No need for "regarding the market." The statement that would be 100% accurate with that guy is "That author has an absolutely horrible track record in making predictions."

[awe4one]

So while this statement is likely true of the market as a whole, I'm not convinced yet that it applies to key issues. However, some of the individual prices being paid for certain issues, with the FF 12 CGC 9.4 that went for 76K as a prime example, will definitely follow this pattern and not be repeated for reasons I've stated so many times of late that I hesitate to state them again lest I be run out of town. :makepoint:

 

It will only take a very few people to leave the hobby for prices on all HG comics, to include the keys, to fall dramatically. What we don't know is if these people, who have been paying ultra high prices, are collectors or speculators. If it's the latter, then watch out...

 

Jim

 

You can't say this with any certainty. Speaking of speculating.....

 

Of course not, but it's something that has to be considered concerning the prices being paid. No one has come on here, and this has a very active and varied collection of collectors, to even mention they'd be willing to routinely pay the high prices we've seen recently. That alone indicates, at least to me, that it's not a normal collector paying these prices.

 

That narrows the potential ultra high grade pool significantly in my opinion...

 

Regardless, I don't think there are many willing to spend these crazy sums for these comics, and as a result, once their dabble, or fear their "investment" in the arena is in danger, will be more than willing to drop their potenial nest eggs in a heartbeat...

 

Do I know this will occur? No...but I sure as hell am looking with a watchful eye as common sense has overtaken any semblance of reality...

 

Jim

[tth2]

So while this statement is likely true of the market as a whole, I'm not convinced yet that it applies to key issues. However, some of the individual prices being paid for certain issues, with the FF 12 CGC 9.4 that went for 76K as a prime example, will definitely follow this pattern and not be repeated for reasons I've stated so many times of late that I hesitate to state them again lest I be run out of town. :makepoint:

 

It will only take a very few people to leave the hobby for prices on all HG comics, to include the keys, to fall dramatically. What we don't know is if these people, who have been paying ultra high prices, are collectors or speculators. If it's the latter, then watch out...

 

Jim

 

You can't say this with any certainty. Speaking of speculating.....

 

Of course not, but it's something that has to be considered concerning the prices being paid. No one has come on here, and this has a very active and varied collection of collectors, to even mention they'd be willing to routinely pay the high prices we've seen recently. That alone indicates, at least to me, that it's not a normal collector paying these prices.

 

That narrows the potential ultra high grade pool significantly in my opinion...

 

Regardless, I don't think there are many willing to spend these crazy sums for these comics, and as a result, once their dabble, or fear their "investment" in the arena is in danger, will be more than willing to drop their potenial nest eggs in a heartbeat...

 

Do I know this will occur? No...but I sure as hell am looking with a watchful eye as common sense has overtaken any semblance of reality...

 

Jim

You can't use whether someone has come on these boards to 'fess up to a headline purchase as any kind of gauge of the depth or real-ness of the market. First, there are zillions of big time collectors who aren't on these boards and have zero interest in coming on here. There are some big time collectors who ARE members, but they're very private about their acquisitions. I'm very certain that the buyer behind some very splashy SA purchases is a board member, but he would never mention here or anywhere in public which purchases he's made.

 

I didn't reveal for several years that I was the buyer of the 9.4 B&B 28 or some other notable purchases, and I'm fairly open about my collection compared to many other collectors.

[delekkerste]

That author has an absolutely horrible track record in making predictions regarding the market.

 

No need for "regarding the market." The statement that would be 100% accurate with that guy is "That author has an absolutely horrible track record in making predictions."

 

I disagree. Prechter was arguably the best market forecaster from roughly 1979 to the 1987 crash. Then, he was admittedly pretty bad for much of the 1988-1998 period about the stock market (though he did do better in other areas). However, for the last decade or so, I have found both his market calls and, more importantly, his analysis of macroeconomics and social trends, to be among the very best out there. I have recommended in a couple of threads in The Water Cooler his free recent e-book on Deflation which basically reprints his analysis on the credit crisis from 2001 to 2007. After reading that, I don't know how anyone could call his track record this decade as "absolutely horrible" - you'd be hard pressed to find someone who called it better.

 

Every mania ends badly, without exception. The only question is whether something is truly a mania or not, and how advanced it is. I was certainly early in sounding caution about slabbed comics, though, in my defense, almost all of the stuff that I used to collect is well off its high as the market advance has gotten narrower and narrower over the years. And, I did adopt a more wait-and-see stance when it became clear that the asset bubble was continuing in the middle of this decade (to paraphrase Keynes, I change my mind when the facts change - what do you do?). To address FF's point about high price run-ups on keys and whatnot, price alone does not constitute a mania. A mania requires mass participation, mass greed and lowering of ethics, mass hysteria and delusion (e.g., "prices on uber-keys can never go down"), etc. and other elements which have only been coming into place this decade, especially in the past 2-3 years.

 

Unlike when I was early in sounding caution some years ago (and hardly anyone took note), these days I know plenty of people, most of them trying to grab a piece of the profit while they still can, who will readily admit that they know this mania is living on borrowed time and that the current insanity can't go on forever. It's definitely not just the lunatic fringe these days - it has very much of a '90s dot-com era feel to it where most people know it can't last forever, but no one wants the party to end.

[october]

Unlike when I was early in sounding caution some years ago (and hardly anyone took note), these days I know plenty of people, most of them trying to grab a piece of the profit while they still can, who will readily admit that they know this mania is living on borrowed time and that the current insanity can't go on forever. It's definitely not just the lunatic fringe these days - it has very much of a '90s dot-com era feel to it where most people know it can't last forever, but no one wants the party to end.

 

Does it not also require mass flipping? After all, how is someone supposed to grab a piece of the rampant price runups if they don't turn around and resell fairly rapidly? I agree that a lot of the current upward trends in high grade books (especially non-keys or moderns) are probably not sustainable, but I also think it's interesting that a lot of the books generating high prices seem to disappear into collections after the gavel falls. If these purchases were 100% "investment" motivated, I think we would see a considerable amount of churning here...the same books coming up for auction again and again separated by relatively short time incriments.

[tth2]

Unlike when I was early in sounding caution some years ago (and hardly anyone took note), these days I know plenty of people, most of them trying to grab a piece of the profit while they still can, who will readily admit that they know this mania is living on borrowed time and that the current insanity can't go on forever. It's definitely not just the lunatic fringe these days - it has very much of a '90s dot-com era feel to it where most people know it can't last forever, but no one wants the party to end.

 

Does it not also require mass flipping? After all, how is someone supposed to grab a piece of the rampant price runups if they don't turn around and resell fairly rapidly? I agree that a lot of the current upward trends in high grade books (especially non-keys or moderns) are probably not sustainable, but I also think it's interesting that a lot of the books generating high prices seem to disappear into collections after the gavel falls. If these purchases were 100% "investment" motivated, I think we would see a considerable amount of churning here...the same books coming up for auction again and again separated by relatively short time incriments.

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

[delekkerste]

Does it not also require mass flipping? After all, how is someone supposed to grab a piece of the rampant price runups if they don't turn around and resell fairly rapidly?

 

From what I can tell, there is mass flipping going on, everything from Signature Series Moderns to HG Silver. I know, because a lot of my close friends in the hobby are participating in it. You're right, though, that a lot of books are not being resold, but (a) oftentimes these books are being flipped to these buyers and (b) some of these buyers are flipping other books to help finance the high-profile purchases which are getting socked away (at least according to the guys I talk to who have knowledge of such things).

 

Then again, someone's going to be left holding the proverbial bag at the end of the day.

[october]

Unlike when I was early in sounding caution some years ago (and hardly anyone took note), these days I know plenty of people, most of them trying to grab a piece of the profit while they still can, who will readily admit that they know this mania is living on borrowed time and that the current insanity can't go on forever. It's definitely not just the lunatic fringe these days - it has very much of a '90s dot-com era feel to it where most people know it can't last forever, but no one wants the party to end.

 

Does it not also require mass flipping? After all, how is someone supposed to grab a piece of the rampant price runups if they don't turn around and resell fairly rapidly? I agree that a lot of the current upward trends in high grade books (especially non-keys or moderns) are probably not sustainable, but I also think it's interesting that a lot of the books generating high prices seem to disappear into collections after the gavel falls. If these purchases were 100% "investment" motivated, I think we would see a considerable amount of churning here...the same books coming up for auction again and again separated by relatively short time incriments.

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

 

Very true. It does seem strange that gold (the province of "real" collectors) often sees the same books come up over and over, while silver (the "investor's" choice) doesn't. I have a friend who takes advantage of this phenomenon, and buys up key golden age after they have gone through the ringer three or more times. Generally speaking, he picks them up for 40-60% of their initial selling prices. He is a collector, but I think that he could make some decent coin just by doing that and sitting on the books for 5 years or so. In any case, I have not witnessed this same phenomenon with silver age, especially with keys that are of equivalent stature with Marvel 1.

[VintageComics]

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

 

Tim, do you have any examples of high grade GA books coming up for sale over and over again?

 

I thought I followed this pretty closely but maybe I am missing something...are you talking about Duck books as I know this is an area that you follow that I don't.

[october]

Does it not also require mass flipping? After all, how is someone supposed to grab a piece of the rampant price runups if they don't turn around and resell fairly rapidly?

 

From what I can tell, there is mass flipping going on, everything from Signature Series Moderns to HG Silver. I know, because a lot of my close friends in the hobby are participating in it. You're right, though, that a lot of books are not being resold, but (a) oftentimes these books are being flipped to these buyers and (b) some of these buyers are flipping other books to help finance the high-profile purchases which are getting socked away (at least according to the guys I talk to who have knowledge of such things).

 

Then again, someone's going to be left holding the proverbial bag at the end of the day.

 

Well, every sale requires a flip on some level, but when true mania hits I expect to see nostalgic attraction take an extreme backseat to money making potential. I saw it with baseball cards, but I have not seen it in comics to the same degree. There is still genuine enthusiasm for the books themselves on almost every level, which tells me that these purchases have the proper motivation behind them. Once you start seeing people on the boards bragging not about their latest comics, but about their latest "holdings" or "assets" or "investment vehicles" or "college funds" or "retirement plans" the end is near.

[delekkerste]

Once you start seeing people on the boards bragging not about their latest comics, but about their latest "holdings" or "assets" or "investment vehicles" or "college funds" or "retirement plans" the end is near.

 

Maybe, Andy, but several of my best friends in the hobby have all become de facto dealers over the past year or two. I don't think we're necessarily as far away as you might think.

[october]

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

 

Tim, do you have any examples of high grade GA books coming up for sale over and over again?

 

I thought I followed this pretty closely but maybe I am missing something...are you talking about Duck books as I know this is an area that you follow that I don't.

 

Well, Tim's one example is accurate. The Denver, Larson and Pay copies of Marvel 1 have all been flipped multiple times in the past few years...and that's just from a casual search through the Heritage archives.

[tth2]

Does it not also require mass flipping? After all, how is someone supposed to grab a piece of the rampant price runups if they don't turn around and resell fairly rapidly?

 

From what I can tell, there is mass flipping going on, everything from Signature Series Moderns to HG Silver.

If you`re going to try to identify a trend, let`s separate out the real collectable comics from the artificial or fad collectable comics. Signature Series Moderns (or any moderns, for that matter) are no more indicative of real trends in the comic book collecting market than the B&Ws were in the mid-80s or Valiants were in the early 90s, and as reflective of the market as penny stocks would be to the general stock market. They are inherently designed to be pumped and dumped because they have no inherently sustainable value.

[october]

Once you start seeing people on the boards bragging not about their latest comics, but about their latest "holdings" or "assets" or "investment vehicles" or "college funds" or "retirement plans" the end is near.

 

Maybe, Andy, but several of my best friends in the hobby have all become de facto dealers over the past year or two. I don't think we're necessarily as far away as you might think.

 

Many people, myself included, have jumped into the dealing side of the equation, but I wonder at their motivations. I did it out of necessity, as my eyes were far bigger than my wallet while I was still in grad school, and I could not have afforded the books I wanted without also dealing. Are your friends in it for a quick profit or are they financing their own collections? I think there is a world of difference between the two, as the latter indicates a genuine love of the hobby and the material rather than a simple cash grab. Once again, the "right" motivations, and not detrimental to the long term health of the hobby. On the other hand, fly by night dealers concerned only with a churn and burn, are.

[VintageComics]

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

 

Tim, do you have any examples of high grade GA books coming up for sale over and over again?

 

I thought I followed this pretty closely but maybe I am missing something...are you talking about Duck books as I know this is an area that you follow that I don't.

 

Well, Tim's one example is accurate. The Denver, Larson and Pay copies of Marvel 1 have all been flipped multiple times in the past few years...and that's just from a casual search through the Heritage archives.

 

Gotcha. Yeah, there was a run on MC #1 for a while there and I knew about that...I thought he had other examples.

 

 

[october]

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

 

Tim, do you have any examples of high grade GA books coming up for sale over and over again?

 

I thought I followed this pretty closely but maybe I am missing something...are you talking about Duck books as I know this is an area that you follow that I don't.

 

Well, Tim's one example is accurate. The Denver, Larson and Pay copies of Marvel 1 have all been flipped multiple times in the past few years...and that's just from a casual search through the Heritage archives.

 

Gotcha. Yeah, there was a run on MC #1 for a while there and I knew about that...I thought he had other examples.

 

 

A couple more off the top of my head: Larson More Fun 52 and San Fran Young Allies 1.