Do Historical Market Trends Indicate it is Time to Sell?

[fantastic_four]

GPA has never captured ComicLink data.

[Silver]

I think that is incorrect.

[Paratrooper]

My athletes foot is acting up again, stupid itching!

[Hedge Collector]

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

 

Tim, do you have any examples of high grade GA books coming up for sale over and over again?

 

I thought I followed this pretty closely but maybe I am missing something...are you talking about Duck books as I know this is an area that you follow that I don't.

 

Well, Tim's one example is accurate. The Denver, Larson and Pay copies of Marvel 1 have all been flipped multiple times in the past few years...and that's just from a casual search through the Heritage archives.

KC copy too, if memory serves. Thinking further, the Pennsylvania and MH copies of various Fawcetts (Capt Midnight, Bulletman, etc.). Although surprisingly I haven`t seen many Crowleys resurfacing after the big run that was brought out on Heritage a few years ago.

 

And the Allentown MC #1.

 

Yes, there was a fire sale on MC #1 copies...almost like everyone colluded to sell them at the same time.

 

I know the Denver and KC copies are now locked away in collections by board members. Don't know where the Larson went and I didn't even realize the Pay copy had sold recently.

 

Wherever it went, it's gonna be up again at Heritage in November!

 

http://comics.ha.com/common/view_item.php?SaleNo=7013&LotIdNo=30044&txtSearch=marvel comics 1&hdnSearch=true

 

Definitely...seeing these "one of a kind" GA keys pop up over and over again tremendously erodes any premium value on them.

 

Why bid aggressively on them when you will get your chance in another 2 months? That goes for any book that hits the market so much, regardless of it's rarity. After all, how rare can a book be, even if its a lone 9.8, when everyone gets a shot at owning it as often as every few months.

[Dale Roberts]

So while this statement is likely true of the market as a whole, I'm not convinced yet that it applies to key issues. However, some of the individual prices being paid for certain issues, with the FF 12 CGC 9.4 that went for 76K as a prime example, will definitely follow this pattern and not be repeated for reasons I've stated so many times of late that I hesitate to state them again lest I be run out of town. :makepoint:

 

It will only take a very few people to leave the hobby for prices on all HG comics, to include the keys, to fall dramatically. What we don't know is if these people, who have been paying ultra high prices, are collectors or speculators. If it's the latter, then watch out...

 

Jim

 

You can't say this with any certainty. Speaking of speculating.....

 

Of course not, but it's something that has to be considered concerning the prices being paid. No one has come on here, and this has a very active and varied collection of collectors, to even mention they'd be willing to routinely pay the high prices we've seen recently. That alone indicates, at least to me, that it's not a normal collector paying these prices.

 

That narrows the potential ultra high grade pool significantly in my opinion...

 

Regardless, I don't think there are many willing to spend these crazy sums for these comics, and as a result, once their dabble, or fear their "investment" in the arena is in danger, will be more than willing to drop their potenial nest eggs in a heartbeat...

 

Do I know this will occur? No...but I sure as hell am looking with a watchful eye as common sense has overtaken any semblance of reality...

 

Jim

You can't use whether someone has come on these boards to 'fess up to a headline purchase as any kind of gauge of the depth or real-ness of the market. First, there are zillions of big time collectors who aren't on these boards and have zero interest in coming on here. There are some big time collectors who ARE members, but they're very private about their acquisitions. I'm very certain that the buyer behind some very splashy SA purchases is a board member, but he would never mention here or anywhere in public which purchases he's made.

 

I didn't reveal for several years that I was the buyer of the 9.4 B&B 28 or some other notable purchases, and I'm fairly open about my collection compared to many other collectors.

(thumbs u

[etanick]

that is what I suspected, I bid on a few things over the past 6 months and I can say that most books I bid on and thankfully didn't win are going lower over the past 6 months. The only one that still goes up or hold up well is the high grade pedigree stuff...other than that, I bet I can buy them a lot cheaper in the next 3 months....yippie for me!

 

 

[tth2]

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

 

Tim, do you have any examples of high grade GA books coming up for sale over and over again?

 

I thought I followed this pretty closely but maybe I am missing something...are you talking about Duck books as I know this is an area that you follow that I don't.

Besides MC #1, there are also the More Fun Spectre issues and I think the Allentown Detective #38 come up for sale at least 3 times in the last 5 years or so.

 

However, the poster child for familiarity breeding contempt is the MH copy of National #7. There was almost mystical reverence for the book when it first came up and sold on Heritage. Then it`s buyer decided to dump it, and then it kept coming up for sale over and over and over, with the book becoming virtually stigmatized. I understand it finally was purchased by a real collector after its price had plummeted and should hopefully regain some of its mojo by being locked away for a long time.

Speaking of being a poster child for books that have been over-exposed, how about the MH Adventure #72?. Cool cover, beautiful book (even if it's a resubbed 9.6), and flipped over and over on Heritage like it's toxic waste. Whoever the owner is, please sell the damn thing at a reasonable price this time and put it out of its misery!

[14 of spades]

This type of activity really makes books lose their luster.