How long before the Census has an effect...

[sfilosa]

How long do you think it will be before the Census starts to have a real effect on the prices of certain books?

 

Here was a book I was interested in (because up until the last 20 seconds the bid was less than $200.00).

 

Captain America #109 CGC 9.6 White

 

 

Now it ended selling for a lot higher but I decided not to bid because of this.

 

Captain America #109 Census

 

So do you look at the census when deciding to buy a book, either in very high-grade or preceived to be very rare?

 

And do you believe the Census will start having an effect on the prices of those books that have a lot of very high-grade copies?

 

 

[acesilver]

I always review the Census on the books I'm interested in. It helps me determine how likely I am to find that same book in equal or better grade then the one available.

 

I'd say the Census already has some impact on prices. If a book has been shown through the Census to be readily available then the supply should meet or even exceed demand. Basic Econ. 101 should then correspond to lower overall prices.

 

The Census is a step in the right direction to help determine how rare or common a book is. Where it will still come up short is any resubmissions and collections that have no interest in going through CGC. But it's better then nothing.

[Timely]

It does have an effect, but I think it's premature.

 

Look at ASM #33. I believe there was a warehouse find on his book, so lots of 9.2-9.6 copies. ASM #33 has sold for less that the surrounding issues since the census first came out.

 

Obviously the more expensive books in any given title will be graded first, and thus giving an inaccurate "scarcity". There are many Iron Man #1's graded but only a few #19's, yet I'm sure #1 is truly scarcer than #19, just like #19 is scarcer than #119!

 

Timely

[Mushroom]

I certainly look at the census as one input in my decision as to how much to bid. In the case of this Cap (even though I am not a Marvel guy), I would be hesitant to bid too much over guide because it seems to me that it is going to be hard to sustain a market with that many HG copies around.

 

If the market size for Cap fans continues to rise then in 5 years the amount may look like a bargain.

 

 

[Aman619]

So do you look at the census when deciding to buy a book, either in very high-grade or preceived to be very rare?

 

every time.

 

And do you believe the Census will start having an effect on the prices of those books that have a lot of very high-grade copies?

 

increasingly yes. Its like that scene in No Way Out, which had no bearing in reality, but illustrates th esituation in som eway. ANyway, its a computer enhancement of a totally blurry out of focus image. It takes th ecomputer all afternoon to tighten it up, until its perfectly in focus and gives away the identity of the murderer. ANyway, what Im trying to say is right now the image is sketchy but over time it gets more and more revealing about the status of high grade books out there. You cant trust it implicitly yet, but the data gives a glimpse of the truth yet to be revealed in its entireity.

[tth2]

How long do you think it will be before the Census starts to have a real effect on the prices of certain books?

 

Here was a book I was interested in (because up until the last 20 seconds the bid was less than $200.00).

 

Captain America #109 CGC 9.6 White

 

 

Now it ended selling for a lot higher but I decided not to bid because of this.

 

Captain America #109 Census

 

So do you look at the census when deciding to buy a book, either in very high-grade or preceived to be very rare?

 

And do you believe the Census will start having an effect on the prices of those books that have a lot of very high-grade copies?

 

 

I always look at the Census before buying a book. I look at it more to check whether a book is common in high grade rather than to gauge whether it's scarce in high grade. I know that sounds contradictory, but the Census is not always an accurate way to gauge scarcity, because the Census can't measure what's not been submitted, and there may be lots of reasons why a book has not been submitted in high numbers.

 

It is, however, a great way to confirm whether there are tons of high grade copies of any particular book. If nothing else, it allows you to sit on the sidelines if the bidding on a common book gets crazy, because odds are another one will be coming along pretty soon. Having said that, it does not appear to me that the Census has had a dramatic effect on knocking prices down of "common" high grade books.

 

[Aman619]

It does have an effect, but I think it's premature.

 

Look at ASM #33. I believe there was a warehouse find on his book, so lots of 9.2-9.6 copies. ASM #33 has sold for less that the surrounding issues since the census first came out.

 

Obviously the more expensive books in any given title will be graded first, and thus giving an inaccurate "scarcity". There are many Iron Man #1's graded but only a few #19's, yet I'm sure #1 is truly scarcer than #19, just like #19 is scarcer than #119!

 

Timely

 

well, yeah, you do have to use common sense in interpreting that data. And make guesses as to why some numbers in the census dont match up with expectations. Like the #19: why WOULD anyone send that book in for grading? So its numbers shed very little light on the amount of copies out there. But Iron Man #1s numbers ALREADY are a warning sign and there still are HUNDREDS of HG copies to come....

[lighthouse]

Absolutely...

 

I don't think the census would be as important if not for the various warehouse finds...

 

But when 10 issues of a book from a certain year are all available in the same quantity, and the other two have an extra 2000 high grade copies that were find 20 years later...

 

As much as guys like Chuck want to keep their warehouse specifics a secret, the census will eventual show the truth...

 

If I found a stash of 2000 copies of Tales of Suspense 48 in a warehouse somewhere, how many do you think I could sell before the prices plummeted? I could probably move 100... maybe 200 if I was lucky and could convince other people to silently move them for me... But pretty soon everyone would know that they were a lot more of that book available...

[murph0]

I look at the census all the time. I don't think it tells us anything about what a book should go for. The census doesn't show anything about how many people collect the title.

I've been long trying to buy a Cap 109 9.6. Prices have remained steady on it, despite 9.4's falling.

 

Brian

[lighthouse]

It does have an effect, but I think it's premature.

 

Look at ASM #33. I believe there was a warehouse find on his book, so lots of 9.2-9.6 copies. ASM #33 has sold for less that the surrounding issues since the census first came out.

 

Obviously the more expensive books in any given title will be graded first, and thus giving an inaccurate "scarcity". There are many Iron Man #1's graded but only a few #19's, yet I'm sure #1 is truly scarcer than #19, just like #19 is scarcer than #119!

 

Timely

 

well, yeah, you do have to use common sense in interpreting that data. And make guesses as to why some numbers in the census dont match up with expectations. Like the #19: why WOULD anyone send that book in for grading? So its numbers shed very little light on the amount of copies out there. But Iron Man #1s numbers ALREADY are a warning sign and there still are HUNDREDS of HG copies to come....

 

Yeah... the guys at Motor City have what? 1200 copies of that book?

[goldust40]

Eventually, without question. It's already happened with certain books (ASM 64 in 9.4, just as an example). But grade is important, here - the census will doubtless have less effect on books in 9.6 or higher, such as the one you mentioned, simply because of market obsession with numbers.

 

It does boil down to perception - by rights if more people join the hobby in the pursuit of HG books, then the growing supply of particular books that appear in the census will be met by demand, but many may not realize this point, and certain books will be seen as common despite their relative scarcity.

 

Another equally important factor is GPA Analysis in terms of the expected price of books in the market, and what a potential buyer will feel happy to pay. I see this as as big an influence as the CGC census, at least in the short term. I've noticed that Heritage are basing reserves on this database.

 

I still do think we've got a way to go before the CGC census is considered to be the market yardstick - only a small percentage of extant HG books have been slabbed as yet.

[murph0]

It's already happened with certain books (ASM 64 in 9.4, just as an example).

 

I beg to differ. I "traded" for a copy of this book. It cost me about 175 in trade. I wasn't really thrilled with that because I knew the book was very easy to find. Since I traded for it (Aug 03), the book has gone from regularly selling at 225-250. It briefly dipped in price in late 02 but has remained steadily above 200 dollars since then. As far as I can see the constantly rising census on this book hasn't effected the price at all...

 

Brian

[goldust40]

Fair enough, bad example. Spidey 33 or Iron Man 1 would've been better. I guess you have to take into account market fluctuations - nothing, as yet, is written in stone.

[murph0]

Oh I agree the trend exists. I think it's just watered down in the ASM market due to the # of buyers.

 

Brian

[COI]

The census has already had an effect. Here's a couple of sales I have documented:

 

CAPTAIN AMERICA #109 CGC 9.6

$650.00 -JAN 2002

 

CAPTAIN AMERICA #109 CGC 9.6

$552.00 NOV-25-01

 

Pretty big effect already, I would say. Also, I don't have a date, but the very first Cap 109 I saw in 9.4(early 2001 I believe) went for over $300, and $250 was standard for a while. Expect the effect to continue on books like this.

[murph0]

Those must've been due to a couple of heavy bidders. Highest price I've ever seen on a 9.6 is 450 on a BIN Boston copy. Highest I ever remember for a 9.4 was 230. I wish I had seen this I could definately live with the book at that price.

 

Brian

[sfilosa]

Obviously the more expensive books in any given title will be graded first, and thus giving an inaccurate "scarcity". There are many Iron Man #1's graded but only a few #19's, yet I'm sure #1 is truly scarcer than #19, just like #19 is scarcer than #119

 

Might have to disagree with you on this one Timely. Just because issue #19 came after issue #1, and obviously is not submitted as much as #1 (due to the lower price), does not mean #1 is scarcer than #19.

 

From what I heard, #1 isssues usually had a much higher print run and even back in the late 1960's, I'm sure some people hoarded #1 issue more than they would hoard a #19.

 

I do understand your point regarding which books will be submitted more frequently.

 

My issue with the Cap #109 was that there are almost 30 copies in CGC 9.6 or better. I admit I was interested only because it was a 9.6, and at the time had a relatively low bid for a nice Silver-Age 9.6. Yet, after seeing the census I determined that I could easily see this be a book that could be bought 5 years from now for approximately the same price as today, as there is already a pretty good supply of high-grade copies.

 

 

[COI]

No, it was the norm in 2001 and early 2002. This book, in 9.6, used to be at the same level that a 110 in 9.6 is now. It hasn't been like that for 2 years, but it was the norm back then. The census, and the abundance of available copies is responsible for the fall. I feel like there are about 20 boston copies for each of these Cap books.

[murph0]

There are about 20 copies of every Cap in that range. I can point to at least 5 dealers who currently have Boston Cap's on their websites.

Almost all prices were way high in 2001. Not much stuff that's as high or higher than books were in 01.

 

Brian

[Mister_Comics]

Just don't get taken by that MARVEL LEGENDS Action Hero version. It looks almost exactly like the original #109.