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Stock market is up. Asset allocation = time to sell comics?

Started by Hedge Collector,

120 posts in this topic

the blob

the blob

Posted
Posted
These numbers are absulutely not true unless maybe it is just new construction condos in Manhattan (and likely minimum of 2 bedroom), which is hardly "New York City as a whole" (considering Manhattan is only the third largest borough population-wise, dwarfed by Krooklyn and Queens), but rather a small subset of overall sales.

 

The survey area is Manhattan and does not include the outer boroughs. However, it NOT new construction only or 2+ bedrooms; it is an average of ALL sales. If we were talking new construction condos only, the #s would be considerably higher still.

 

 

New York Summary

 

Average price per square foot for New York NY was $1,167, a decrease of 12.8% compared to the same period last year. The median sales price for homes in New York NY for Jul 09 to Sep 09 was $960,000 based on 991 home sales. Compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 14.3%, or $160,000, and the number of home sales decreased 3.5%.

 

There are currently 9,744 resale and new homes in New York on Trulia, including 212 open houses, as well as 449 homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. The average listing price for homes for sale in New York NY was $2,013,942 for the week ending Oct 07, which represents a decrease of 0.2%, or $4,959, compared to the prior week. Popular neighborhoods in New York include Upper East Side and Upper West Side, with average listing prices of $2,832,601 and $1,969,718.

 

I'll buy $960 a square foot as the # in Manhattan, particularly now that sales in Harlem/Washington heights have slowed to a crawl. (Condos are almost all newish construction anyway, so that skews the #s a bit.) When I sold my apartment it was for close to $1000 sq ft although it was a co-op. My friends bought a gorgeous 1500 square foot 4 bedroom pre-war apartment up there in Harlem in the $600Ks...so less than 500 a square foot, but it is dangerously close to being in the ghetto.

 

I always find the average list price a bit astounding, not because I think it is so much for a decent size apartment, but there are a lot of studio and 1 bedroom apartments on the market for $300-$600K and I would have thought that would lower the average by a lot.

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bronze_rules

bronze_rules

Posted
Posted
Time to sell -> when the price of the item BEGINS to drop

Time to buy -> when the price of the item BEGINS to rise

 

Follow these simple rules, and you cant go wrong...with comics or stocks.

 

If only it were that simple. Unfortunately, BEGINS is a subjective and relative term, else we'd all be easy multi-millionaires. Better advice would be start to peel off when prices are parabolic in a short time, or buy when prices have plummeted to unusually historical depths.

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AtlasFan

AtlasFan

Posted
Posted
Time to sell -> when the price of the item BEGINS to drop

Time to buy -> when the price of the item BEGINS to rise

 

Follow these simple rules, and you cant go wrong...with comics or stocks.

 

If only it were that simple. Unfortunately, BEGINS is a subjective and relative term, else we'd all be easy multi-millionaires. Better advice would be start to peel off when prices are parabolic in a short time, or buy when prices have plummeted to unusually historical depths.

 

Ahh. That's correct BEGINS is the rub! Thats why Stock Brokers are still in demand -- the average Joe Blow AmeriTrade-trader has no clue when the proper time to buy and sell is.

 

And I can tell you, after working almost 20 years in the financial markets, you still see that mentality of people buying stocks "at bargin prices" when they are record lows -- just on HOPE that prices will someday rise. people who do that often find that those record lows are soon broken - and they are many years away from even beginning to recover from their losses.

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the blob

the blob

Posted
Posted

Thats why Stock Brokers are still in demand

------------------------

 

edited from being potentially sounding like a personal attack:

 

no offense, but most stock brokers are no better at timing the market than randomly picking stocks. many of these same stockbrokers were pushing their clients to buy internet stocks in 2000. if they "knew" what was going to happen they'd be living on oversized yachts and bathing in caviar and super models. heck, even many of them who do have that kind of money don't know how to predict diddly (see Lehman, Bear, Merrill...)

 

well, at least that's what i heard growing up from my father and from the looks of most of the guys down here on wall street with their slicked back hair, i buy it. (no offense if you're a hair slicker, but I see a lot of stockbrokers down here who look like they work in some sort of mafia controlle bucket shop)

 

i don't have anything against stock brokers. my father was a stock broker for a good 20 years (and apparently a really good one...although he hated doing it) at the top brokerage houses of the day (in the 50s - 70's). he wound up becoming an economist for his last 10 years on the street before retiring because he found it more stimulating.

 

As for buying at record lows...DOW near 6000 seemed like a pretty good time to buy (I wish I had money and I wish my mother would have listened to me...now she's bragging about the 4% she's getting on her money market) given where we are now, so how did those bargain hunters get burned again? (Picking individual stocks...yeah, that's another story)

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Silver Surfer

Silver Surfer

Posted
Posted
Dow Jones up over 10k again.

 

Cashed in my position about 3 weeks ago and am quite happy as my portfolio rebounded 60% since earlier in the year. I saw Kramer the other night on Mad Money telling investors that there is still money to be made in this bull market but I think there will be a lot of profit taking in the next few months so I'm going to sit and wait before I jump back in. Buffett always said that when everyone is bullish on the market that its maybe time to be leary, we should know shortly.

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jkrk

jkrk

Posted
Posted

I'm having a tough time in the markets this year. In particular I've been struggling since July. My short positions are taking a toll on my P&L (however that's the business I've chosen). With that said, last year was reasonably good.

 

My view:

 

The stock market can rise further in the short term particularly if the dollar depreciates much from here. However, I suspect that the dollar is real close to a trading low (which might be accompanied by rising rates) which would adversely hit the gold market as well as stocks.

To date, the game has been simply to keep rates low enough in order to force money into higher risk trades. The trade has worked reasonably well as liquidity has moved almost every market higher (from commodities to bonds).

 

I intend to trade relatively hedged waiting for signs that the market is tiring and then to lift some long hedges. Overall I suspect that the next "big move" will be lower although the timing is uncertain. All I can do is trade around existing positions. I would prefer the markets to move into a trading range as we see an improving domestic economy. In my view the markets desperately need zero interest rates to sustain the rally. An improving economy might upset the game?

 

 

 

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lizards2

lizards2

Posted
Posted
Dow Jones up over 10k again.

 

:banana: And I liquidated everything out of the stock market at close of business today :banana:

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tth2

tth2

Posted
Posted
SF has the most expensive cost per SQ FT in the US, well in the pacific heights area at least. you can get a nice condo in a high rise in the SOMA area though. :wishluck:

 

San Francisco as a whole:

 

Average Listing Price $1,162,372

Median Sales Price $635,000

Average price/sqft $569

Number of Sales 1,313

 

Pacific Heights only:

 

Average Listing Price $3,621,006

Median Sales Price $1,100,000

Average price/sqft $935

Number of Sales 31

 

New York City as a whole:

 

Average Listing Price $2,013,942

Median Sales Price $960,000

Average price/sqft $1,167 :o

Number of Sales 991

 

Also in the news today - Hong Kong apartment sells for $57 million

 

"...It is believed to be Asia's most expensive property by square foot at nearly $9,200."

 

Tim ? When I come visit please set up your collection in the outdoor yoga gym for my viewing pleasure.

lol Okay, but you can only view the comics from the downward facing dog pose.

 

Ironically, that building is located where my grandparents lived in a lowrise building for many decades until it got redeveloped. No, they did not get anything close to $9,200/square foot when they sold. :(

 

That price is absurd by any measure, but particularly for that neighborhood. The damned PRC Chinese have too much money but don't know how to spend it.

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kapowcat-migration

kapowcat-migration

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My God how many times can I say this,give me a name of a bank that would loan you money on comics.I wonder why???????????? just enjoy them and make your margins on other collectors that have money for this(AGAIN FOR THIS HOBBY) just name that Bank! please wake up! prices are up because of boomers and movies lets not think ahead 10 years! (pet rock) Best Regards to my fellow collectors!

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Flemmings

Flemmings

Posted
Posted
My God how many times can I say this,give me a name of a bank that would loan you money on comics.I wonder why???????????? just enjoy them and make your margins on other collectors that have money for this(AGAIN FOR THIS HOBBY) just name that Bank! please wake up! prices are up because of boomers and movies lets not think ahead 10 years! (pet rock) Best Regards to my fellow collectors!

 

This hobby is going to hell in a hand basket.....SELL NOW......CHEAPLY TO ME NOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:jokealert:

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FlyingDonut

FlyingDonut

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Posted

Signing the papers today to refinance my mortgage (for the sixth time in this house). 4.375 fixed for 15 years, will be paid off in eight. Take that, global financial markets!

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tth2

tth2

Posted
Posted
Signing the papers today to refinance my mortgage (for the sixth time in this house). 4.375 fixed for 15 years, will be paid off in eight. Take that, global financial markets!

You`ve locked in a phenomenal interest rate, so why would you want to pay if off early?

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PEP

PEP

Posted
Posted
Signing the papers today to refinance my mortgage (for the sixth time in this house). 4.375 fixed for 15 years, will be paid off in eight. Take that, global financial markets!

Speaking of, I gotta look into refi, I'm in 6% right now, way tooooo high.

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