Collector’s item or investment—what grade?

[HD]

At what grade level does a comic transform from being an item in an enthusiast's collection to an investment? For example, today at Clink, there are 30 copies of X-Men 94, running from a grade of 2.5 to 9.6. Where on that scale would a comic be expected to at least maintain its value in the years to come? 7.0? 9.0? Highest graded?

[Hamlet]

I don't think anyone can say for sure.

 

If you are buying comics for investment, you are basically trying to predict changes in supply and demand over a period of time.

 

For the last twenty years, the answer has been without a doubt--

 

"buy the absolute highest grade you can get."

 

The prices on the top end of the market have appreciated way more than the lower end. I think most people expect this trend to continue.

 

So if you are buying an X-men 94 for investment, and things continue in the same direction, II would say that you should buy the 9.6. Actually, since there are 3 9.8's of that book, you probably should avoid buying anything but those, or a 9.6 candidate for re-grading up to a 9.8. Think about it-- when you are spending many thousands on a book, do you want the one that there are almost 50 of or the one that there are only 3 of?

 

However, I think that there is a distinct possibility that the trend of higher and higher money for ultra-high grade may change. If the high-grade comics bubble bursts, you may end up losing a lot less money having bought more affordable grades.

 

Take the housing market. It's declined all over, but the top end got hit much harder than the bottom end simply because the bottom end is more about utility than speculation. Who wants to own a million dollar declining asset? no one. But people are still buying 200k homes because they have to live somewhere.

 

Likewise, we may see a day when 9.8 slab prices are plummeting, but the $5 SA reader market will likely not be affected much, because you can still read those books and get your $5 worth of entertainment out of them.

 

Personally, I wouldn't invest in a high grade slabbed copy of X-men 94. Are you expecting its popularity to go up from here? It is currently one of the hottest books around, and is pretty common, all things considered. While I doubt it will ever become unpopular, I don't see a catalyst for further price appreciation.

 

Note-- this isn't to say I don't want to own an X-men 94. I do, and probably will someday. However, I'm not going to spend 10k on it. I'll buy the nicest copy I can find at the best price I can get that is within my budget. That will probably end up getting me an 8.0, because I'm too cheap to pay more and too picky to take a lower grade. I will think of this as spending money, though, and not an investment.

 

For investing, I would much rather take that money and purchase something that is not currently drawing that much attention, but might draw more in the future. Something fairly hard to find, so that if it gets any real uptick in interest, prices will need to escalate to meet even a small increase in demand.

 

 

 

 

[TFL-migration]

I think mid upper grade books will be a good investment. With the HG and Uber HG books going for insane $$. It will leave a lot of collectors looking fora nice 6.0 - 9. 0 copy of the book there looking for. It is very nice getting the best there is. But not to many will be able to fork over big, big money for the best.

[MR.COMICBOOK]

I don't think anyone can say for sure.

 

If you are buying comics for investment, you are basically trying to predict changes in supply and demand over a period of time.

 

For the last twenty years, the answer has been without a doubt--

 

"buy the absolute highest grade you can get."

 

The prices on the top end of the market have appreciated way more than the lower end. I think most people expect this trend to continue.

 

So if you are buying an X-men 94 for investment, and things continue in the same direction, II would say that you should buy the 9.6. Actually, since there are 3 9.8's of that book, you probably should avoid buying anything but those, or a 9.6 candidate for re-grading up to a 9.8. Think about it-- when you are spending many thousands on a book, do you want the one that there are almost 50 of or the one that there are only 3 of?

 

However, I think that there is a distinct possibility that the trend of higher and higher money for ultra-high grade may change. If the high-grade comics bubble bursts, you may end up losing a lot less money having bought more affordable grades.

 

Take the housing market. It's declined all over, but the top end got hit much harder than the bottom end simply because the bottom end is more about utility than speculation. Who wants to own a million dollar declining asset? no one. But people are still buying 200k homes because they have to live somewhere.

 

Likewise, we may see a day when 9.8 slab prices are plummeting, but the $5 SA reader market will likely not be affected much, because you can still read those books and get your $5 worth of entertainment out of them.

 

Personally, I wouldn't invest in a high grade slabbed copy of X-men 94. Are you expecting its popularity to go up from here? It is currently one of the hottest books around, and is pretty common, all things considered. While I doubt it will ever become unpopular, I don't see a catalyst for further price appreciation.

 

Note-- this isn't to say I don't want to own an X-men 94. I do, and probably will someday. However, I'm not going to spend 10k on it. I'll buy the nicest copy I can find at the best price I can get that is within my budget. That will probably end up getting me an 8.0, because I'm too cheap to pay more and too picky to take a lower grade. I will think of this as spending money, though, and not an investment.

 

For investing, I would much rather take that money and purchase something that is not currently drawing that much attention, but might draw more in the future. Something fairly hard to find, so that if it gets any real uptick in interest, prices will need to escalate to meet even a small increase in demand.

 

 

 

If your not going to go all out and get high grade for mega profit then just go for a low mid-grade like a CGC 4. why waste money on a 8.0 when a very good copy should suffice? A mid-grade CGC Hulk 181 is about the same price it was 5 years ago,while the low and high grades have made the profits.

[tth2]

Why can't an ultra-HG book be both--a collector's item AND an investment (or at least able to retain its value).

 

I don't collect ultra-HG books just because they retain their value better. I just happen to like minty fresh books! Holding a trashed 40-year old book doesn't fill me with wonderment, because I can understand very well how it got that way. In fact, it's expected that it would be that way.

[Hamlet]

Because I would always think of a 4.0 of that book as a filler copy. For me in that time period, I prefer to have books that are in the VF range. They are just too common in 8.0 to settle for a 4.0.

 

You may be right that it isn't the right grade to buy for investment, but that would not be my purpose in buying the book.

 

If your not going to go all out and get high grade for mega profit then just go for a low mid-grade like a CGC 4. why waste money on a 8.0 when a very good copy should suffice? A mid-grade CGC Hulk 181 is about the same price it was 5 years ago,while the low and high grades have made the profits.

[Hamlet]

People can certainly collect high grade books simply because they enjoy them. I certainly enjoy the high grade books I own. Everyone has their own criteria for what they look for when they are adding books to their collection.

 

However, when you start getting into the 9.4 vs 9.6 vs 9.8 vs 9.9 range of fairly common books, with the 9.8 going for 10 times what the 9.4 goes for, and the 9.9 going for ten times that, it is no longer about the enjoyment of the book. It becomes much more about the label and the potential for resale.

 

I doubt very much that the person who bought the Web of Spiderman #1 10.0 for $4k was doing it because he liked the look of it more than the 9.8's he could grab off of Ebay in a minute for $60. Or the dozens of likely 9.2 - 9.6 copies you could find for $10.

 

He likely bought it because he wanted a CGC case that said 10.0 so he could say he has the nicest copy in existence. It's a little ironic to me that the differences between a 9.8 and a 10.0 are unknown to anyone but the CGC, and are most likely not visible through the case

 

Why can't an ultra-HG book be both--a collector's item AND an investment (or at least able to retain its value).

 

I don't collect ultra-HG books just because they retain their value better. I just happen to like minty fresh books! Holding a trashed 40-year old book doesn't fill me with wonderment, because I can understand very well how it got that way. In fact, it's expected that it would be that way.

[tth2]

He likely bought it because he wanted a CGC case that said 10.0 so he could say he has the nicest copy in existence.

I don't think that means it's not collecting and thus it's automatically an investment.

 

People collect for lots of different reasons, and some people are into "competitive" collecting. The guy could be a true collector, of nicest copies in existence (according to CGC). Traditional collectors have disdain for label collecting, but label collecting is collecting too.

 

In fact, I would say that someone who spends $12K for a 9.9 New Mutants #98 is probably not really into the investment aspect at all (unless he's really naive), because there are lots of valid reasons why it could be (or become) a really poor investment. Like another 9.9 copy or (god forbid) a 10.0 copy appears in the Census, which would not be the biggest shock in the world.

[Hamlet]

You've touched on something important here.

 

I've never been able to articulate what you are talking about, but "competitive collecting" is about the best description I've heard of this.

 

This facet of the hobby really needed the CGC to become a large factor. Before the CGC, competitive collectors would all pay a bunch of money for "NM" books, but there wasn't a tiny handful of them that were necessarily better than all the other "NM" books.

They couldn't spend more money to break the tie, so to speak.

 

Now they can, and it makes for some crazy prices at the very top end.

 

 

People collect for lots of different reasons, and some people are into "competitive" collecting. The guy could be a true collector, of nicest copies in existence (according to CGC). Traditional collectors have disdain for label collecting, but label collecting is collecting too.

 

In fact, I would say that someone who spends $12K for a 9.9 New Mutants #98 is probably not really into the investment aspect at all (unless he's really naive), because there are lots of valid reasons why it could be (or become) a really poor investment. Like another 9.9 copy or (god forbid) a 10.0 copy appears in the Census, which would not be the biggest shock in the world.

[HD]

I don't think anyone can say for sure.

 

If you are buying comics for investment, you are basically trying to predict changes in supply and demand over a period of time.

 

For the last twenty years, the answer has been without a doubt--

 

"buy the absolute highest grade you can get."

 

The prices on the top end of the market have appreciated way more than the lower end. I think most people expect this trend to continue.

 

So if you are buying an X-men 94 for investment, and things continue in the same direction, II would say that you should buy the 9.6. Actually, since there are 3 9.8's of that book, you probably should avoid buying anything but those, or a 9.6 candidate for re-grading up to a 9.8. Think about it-- when you are spending many thousands on a book, do you want the one that there are almost 50 of or the one that there are only 3 of?

 

However, I think that there is a distinct possibility that the trend of higher and higher money for ultra-high grade may change. If the high-grade comics bubble bursts, you may end up losing a lot less money having bought more affordable grades.

 

Take the housing market. It's declined all over, but the top end got hit much harder than the bottom end simply because the bottom end is more about utility than speculation. Who wants to own a million dollar declining asset? no one. But people are still buying 200k homes because they have to live somewhere.

 

Likewise, we may see a day when 9.8 slab prices are plummeting, but the $5 SA reader market will likely not be affected much, because you can still read those books and get your $5 worth of entertainment out of them.

 

Personally, I wouldn't invest in a high grade slabbed copy of X-men 94. Are you expecting its popularity to go up from here? It is currently one of the hottest books around, and is pretty common, all things considered. While I doubt it will ever become unpopular, I don't see a catalyst for further price appreciation.

 

Note-- this isn't to say I don't want to own an X-men 94. I do, and probably will someday. However, I'm not going to spend 10k on it. I'll buy the nicest copy I can find at the best price I can get that is within my budget. That will probably end up getting me an 8.0, because I'm too cheap to pay more and too picky to take a lower grade. I will think of this as spending money, though, and not an investment.

 

For investing, I would much rather take that money and purchase something that is not currently drawing that much attention, but might draw more in the future. Something fairly hard to find, so that if it gets any real uptick in interest, prices will need to escalate to meet even a small increase in demand.

 

 

 

If your not going to go all out and get high grade for mega profit then just go for a low mid-grade like a CGC 4. why waste money on a 8.0 when a very good copy should suffice? A mid-grade CGC Hulk 181 is about the same price it was 5 years ago,while the low and high grades have made the profits.

I understand where you are coming from, but I would like to add a clarification that may help everyone.

 

As a rule, I already have "reader" copies of any CGC certified comics I consider. (I don't want to buy something that I am told is "cool" and then later learn the story is poo poo because my taste differs from the reviewer's. I do follow the rule of only collecting what I like.) However, if I run across a nice book I sometimes wonder if maybe I shouldn't also have a "fancy" copy for investment purposes. Therefore, let's say I already have a VG raw copy but want a slabbed copy as well. The reason I ask about an investment is that I don't want to spend all that money and then learn in 10 years that the comic's value has fallen to 25% of what I paid. I hope that makes some sense.

[tth2]

I've never been able to articulate what you are talking about, but "competitive collecting" is about the best description I've heard of this.

I'd better get it trademarked!

 

This facet of the hobby really needed the CGC to become a large factor. Before the CGC, competitive collectors would all pay a bunch of money for "NM" books, but there wasn't a tiny handful of them that were necessarily better than all the other "NM" books.

They couldn't spend more money to break the tie, so to speak.

 

Now they can, and it makes for some crazy prices at the very top end.

Exactly. It's mostly the case with common books, though. The more immaculate copies that exist of a book, then the more a competitive collector needs a CGC to break the tie.

 

The more rare a book, at least in high grade, the less necessary a CGC is to competitive collecting. No one needs CGC to tell them that the Allentown Detective 27 is the best Detective 27 in existence, for example. There's nothing known that's close enough to make it a contest.

[october]

Why can't an ultra-HG book be both--a collector's item AND an investment (or at least able to retain its value).

 

I don't collect ultra-HG books just because they retain their value better. I just happen to like minty fresh books! Holding a trashed 40-year old book doesn't fill me with wonderment, because I can understand very well how it got that way. In fact, it's expected that it would be that way.

 

Isn't being a collector's item a necessary prerequisite for a good investment when comics are concerned? Why would anyone want to park money in a book that collectors aren't after?

[the blob]

Low grade comics can be fine investments too...if you get a great deal and sell for a nice price down the road. sure, the real money buying 15 years ago would be buying HG and slabbing when CGC came around (provided you bought real, unrestored, HG), but there were lots of opportunities to pick up cheap lower grade books as toss-ins back then. basically, they didn't have any real value, even keys like FF 5, ASM 14, etc. books, which even in HORRIBLE shape, can fetch $75-$150 nowadays are books i got as free toss ins for bigger deals or could be had for $5-$10. i picked up a stack of low grade captain marvelish fawcetts from my LCS for $2 each and 3 years later sold them each for $10-$20. the key is to find the seller who doesn't place any value in the mangled comics of old and find the buyer who does!

[joe_collector]

Why would anyone want to park money in a book that collectors aren't after?

 

Because they have *vision*?

 

Following the crowd and buying what every other Tom, Dik and Harry are after is a fool's errand.

[joe_collector]

People collect for lots of different reasons, and some people are into "competitive" collecting. The guy could be a true collector, of nicest copies in existence (according to CGC). Traditional collectors have disdain for label collecting, but label collecting is collecting too.

 

Agreed, but by your own admission it's no longer "comic collecting" at work, but "label collecting", which is a whole different hobby.

[FlyingDonut]

This is a stupid thread. Any comic is an "investment" if you buy it for the right price. If I buy a VG X-Men 94 for $4 as part of a larger lot, and sell it for $50, I've made a significant return. "Collector's item" and "investment" aren't mutually exclusive.

[HD]

I suspect that most of us are already searching for a good deal and of course you have less of a chance of losing if you spend less to start with. The idea of buy low and sell high works in most markets.

[Bomber-Bob]

I think the best guide for an investment book is to use the CGC Census.

Personally, I think early Silver Age DC currently holds a greater investment potential than mainstream Marvel. The performance of Showcase 22 has shown us that high grade early DC is rare and can be valuable.

[FlyingDonut]

I think the best guide for an investment book is to use the CGC Census.

Personally, I think early Silver Age DC currently holds a greater investment potential than mainstream Marvel. The performance of Showcase 22 has shown us that high grade early DC is rare and can be valuable.

 

I think absolutely the WORST guide for an investment book is to use the CGC census. The best guide for an "investment" book, is, surprisingly, a combination of eBay and Overstreet. If you're serious, troll eBay for books that consistently sell for significant multiples of Overstreet and buy at shows from dealers who aren't dynamically pricing their books.

[october]

Any comic is an "investment" if you buy it for the right price. If I buy a VG X-Men 94 for $4 as part of a larger lot, and sell it for $50, I've made a significant return.

 

I think we need to distinguish between some things on these boards.

 

 

Wholesaling: the sale of a large amount of goods to a retailer for breakup and individual resale...what you just described.

 

Arbitrage: buying goods in one market in order to sell them in another, taking advantage of the spread...what I do when I buy on eBay to sell here or at shows.

 

Investment: buying something at market price, holding it, then selling it for (hopefully) a profit...which is what I think the OP was talking about.

 

 

Things get confusing when terminology isn't used the same way in a discussion.