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MC1 Pay Copy in Heritage February Auction...again...

Started by Hedge Collector,

82 posts in this topic

rob_react

rob_react

Posted
Posted
The perpetual downward spiral of this book deserves a thread of its own.

 

It needs to be buried in a collection for 10 years. Everyone that could possibly want this book has already had five chances to buy it over the past few years. It needs a timeout.

 

Huh!?! I just don't get this at all. If "everyone that could possible want this book has had five chances to buy it" than the declining value of the book would appear to be commiserate with the (lack of) demand.

 

Why would the demand increase in 10 years? If anything, there would appear to be a reasonable risk that the pool of collectors that are both interested in very expensive Timely Comics and have the wherewithall to buy them will probably be a smaller pool ten years from now then today, and the supply of MC 1s on the market might well increase as their current owners of get older and they or their survivors liquidate collections amassed twenty to forty years ago.

 

I think part of what drives collectors is perception of rarity.

 

We've already discussed this in two other threads this week.

 

Collectors are willing to pay more for something if they feel they may not have another shot at it again.

 

What Tim has been maintaining for some time now, is that because the number of Marvel #1 copies on the market has increased over the last little whiel, there seems to be a perception that the book is not rare when compared to other big keys, when in fact it is just as rare as Action #1 and the other big keys (acc to the CGC census anyways). The ready availability of the book may actually hinder it's appeal because the perception is that if I don't bid on one now I can always find one later.

 

Apparently it's a cycle that happens to many books over the years.

 

So akin to buying low and selling high, one should buy on perceived availability and sell on perceived rarity?

 

It's akin to the Buffett quote (paraphrasing) "buy when there's blood on the streets." The ABSOLUTE WORST TIME to buy a comic (or other collectibles) is when people are interested in it. Many people buying collectibles for big bucks are not acting rationally, looking to maximize monetary gain to begin with, when there's hype surrounding a book or character rationality goes right out the window.

 

 

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G.A.tor

G.A.tor

Posted
Posted

I dropped the price of Marvel 1 significantly in my OSPG response this year... I cited 14 examples for the price drop, with not a single example supporting the guide...

 

I understand the "exception" but unfortunately, this has become the "rule"...

 

 

that said, I feel there will be an upswing on Marvel 1 pricing if, and only "if", supply dries up (like it has done with Batman 1 or superman 1, etc)... nice unrestored copies not hitting the market every month ... just my opinion your milage may vary

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G.A.tor

G.A.tor

Posted
Posted
what's the track record of low grade copies over the last 3-5 years? I think they may actually have moved up a bit?
there have been quite a few hit the market of late, but all are still selling at below guide (a couple as much as 20% below, even for lower grade)...

 

 

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Crowzilla

Crowzilla

Posted
Posted
Declining value? It sold in 2006 for $201K & then in 2007 for $205K. I would not call that declining value.

 

West

 

Considering the stock market rose over 20% in that time period and that inflation for the year was slightly over 4%, one could certainly make the argument that the 1.8% increase in price for the Marvel $1 over that time period could at least be considered stagnant.

You could have put the $201K in a money market account in January 2006, bought the Marvel #1 in the 2007 auction and still had $5-6K left over depending on which bank you went with.

 

 

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Crowzilla

Crowzilla

Posted
Posted
what's the track record of low grade copies over the last 3-5 years? I think they may actually have moved up a bit?
there have been quite a few hit the market of late, but all are still selling at below guide (a couple as much as 20% below, even for lower grade)...

 

 

Rick,

I think you're going to find that one selling as strongly as 20% under guide (like the February Heritage copy) to be the exception and that they usually bring around 30% or so under guide (like the November Heritage copy that brought 35% less than guide).

 

It has been this way for over a decade and while I'm glad you are making strong reductions in your notes for OS, at best i think we will see a flatline in the value for the book as that has been Bob's traditional response to drops in value for books (or a nominal 1,000 increase in 9.2 with a slight decline in other grades as to make the drop less noticeable).

 

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Hedge Collector

Hedge Collector

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Declining value? It sold in 2006 for $201K & then in 2007 for $205K. I would not call that declining value.

 

West

 

Considering the stock market rose over 20% in that time period and that inflation for the year was slightly over 4%, one could certainly make the argument that the 1.8% increase in price for the Marvel $1 over that time period could at least be considered stagnant.

You could have put the $201K in a money market account in January 2006, bought the Marvel #1 in the 2007 auction and still had $5-6K left over depending on which bank you went with.

 

 

I think the best comparison should be made between MC1 and its peers - other comics, or namely other key GA comics. And not just Tec27 but the average of several GA books.

 

Otherwise, you could pick and choose whatever you like in comparison. Compare it to real estate from the same time period and this MC1 no longer looks stagnant, it looks downright rock solid.

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nearmint

nearmint

Posted
Posted
Declining value? It sold in 2006 for $201K & then in 2007 for $205K. I would not call that declining value.

 

West

Considering that JP bought it for a reported $350K? I would.

 

Plus, assuming the buyer at $201K and the seller at $205K was Geppi, even with the extremely favorable consignor terms that he undoubtedly enjoys, it's hard to imagine he didn't lose money in the 2007 sale (although he still came out way ahead after selling to JP for $300K).

 

This is taking the transactions at face value, of course, so there may be all sorts of machinations and insider dealings that make all of this analysis inaccurate.

 

Could you add Bats #1 in that "declining value" category? C-Link sells a 9.0 for $280K a couple years ago and then an 8.0 recently sells for $100k. That's quite the gap for a book that is not even "NM".

I don't know if you can compare an 8.0 sale to a 9.0 sale and somehow infer that the price is declining. But you can certainly count me as one of the people who thinks that Batman #1 is way overpriced.

 

I agree its way overpriced but I use the Bats as comparison because the C-Link Bats #1 and the JP Mint MC #1 sales has similarities. Both highest graded 9.0 copies, both probably way over paid, and both sales are proving to be anomalies in terms of overall values in similar/surrounding grades.

 

Except the vast majority of the general public are very familiar with Batman & The Joker, but have no knowledge of the characters in Marvel Comics #1.

 

What should a Batman #1 CGC 9.0 be worth?

 

Not 2.8x's an 8.0 copy.

 

If there were a 9.2 or higher Bat #1 out there, I'd agree with you. But a 9.0 going for 2.8 times what an 8.0 goes for when the 9.0 is the highest graded doesn't seem out of line to me.

 

Yeah, I'm 100% okay with that price.

 

For what it's worth, Batman #1, at least as far as the general public is concerned, is a far more important book than pretty much any Timely. 1st Catwoman and the Joker? Batman #1? "ooh, wow"

 

Should be fun to see what this highest graded copy brings in the Feb Heritage auction...

 

 

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Crowzilla

Crowzilla

Posted
Posted

I think the best comparison should be made between MC1 and its peers - other comics, or namely other key GA comics. And not just Tec27 but the average of several GA books.

 

Otherwise, you could pick and choose whatever you like in comparison. Compare it to real estate from the same time period and this MC1 no longer looks stagnant, it looks downright rock solid.

 

True - and didn't mean to be misleading in my comparison. I wasn't looking to invest in an extra house in that time period, but certainly did continue to add to my IRA and other traditional investments (or just keeping cash in a MMA) as I'm sure a majority of other board members did also.

 

It would be interesting for someone to list Marvel #1 sales prices over the years as a percentage of guide from the Heritage archives or GPA, to see if sales consistently fall in a certain range.

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Crowzilla

Crowzilla

Posted
Posted

Should be fun to see what this highest graded copy brings in the Feb Heritage auction...

 

Jeff,

this really deserves it's own thread (especially so all the early price speculation can begin).

A 2nd 8.0 copy of Detective #27 is big news indeed.

:o

 

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Silver Surfer

Silver Surfer

Posted
Posted
Declining value? It sold in 2006 for $201K & then in 2007 for $205K. I would not call that declining value.

 

West

Considering that JP bought it for a reported $350K? I would.

 

Plus, assuming the buyer at $201K and the seller at $205K was Geppi, even with the extremely favorable consignor terms that he undoubtedly enjoys, it's hard to imagine he didn't lose money in the 2007 sale (although he still came out way ahead after selling to JP for $300K).

 

This is taking the transactions at face value, of course, so there may be all sorts of machinations and insider dealings that make all of this analysis inaccurate.

 

Could you add Bats #1 in that "declining value" category? C-Link sells a 9.0 for $280K a couple years ago and then an 8.0 recently sells for $100k. That's quite the gap for a book that is not even "NM".

I don't know if you can compare an 8.0 sale to a 9.0 sale and somehow infer that the price is declining. But you can certainly count me as one of the people who thinks that Batman #1 is way overpriced.

 

I agree its way overpriced but I use the Bats as comparison because the C-Link Bats #1 and the JP Mint MC #1 sales has similarities. Both highest graded 9.0 copies, both probably way over paid, and both sales are proving to be anomalies in terms of overall values in similar/surrounding grades.

 

Except the vast majority of the general public are very familiar with Batman & The Joker, but have no knowledge of the characters in Marvel Comics #1.

 

What should a Batman #1 CGC 9.0 be worth?

 

Not 2.8x's an 8.0 copy.

 

Bats#1 to me is like the ASM#1 to a AF#15 so $280k is too much. If we were talking 1st, 2nd or maybe even 3rd appearance it might warrant such huge multiples. Will be interesting to see where the Heritage Tec #27 CGC 8.0 ends up at just for comparison purposes.

 

If there were a 9.2 or higher Bat #1 out there, I'd agree with you. But a 9.0 going for 2.8 times what an 8.0 goes for when the 9.0 is the highest graded doesn't seem out of line to me.

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