Official Crash Watch '04 Thread

[drbanner]

J_C may even ultimately be proven right that 2004 sees the top...

 

Actually, that would prove the exact opposite as JC's long-lived sig line was that he was going to fiddle while the comic book market crashed and burned in 2004, not that the market was going to peak in '04. And I'm sure he would have had great fun watching the demise of our hobby if it did happen!

 

I guess Joe's prediction on the comic book market in '04 can be compared to Robert Prechter's prediction you and I discussed a while back - "I believe very strongly that 2003 will not simply be a year of falling stock prices but collapsing stock prices." I'm sure everyone here is glad that we didn't pull out of the market back then!!

 

I'm not saying it's not going to happen in the future because the future's a long time (in fact, it's timeless, isn't it?) and I've been reading some of his stuff as you suggested, but as illustrated above, the uber-bear's have been wrong as well...

[joe_collector]

Actually, that would prove the exact opposite as JC's long-lived sig line was that he was going to fiddle while the comic book market crashed and burned in 2004, not that the market was going to peak in '04.

 

I can see it now. Comic book prices plummet in early 2005, speculators are jumping off skyscapers, dealers are using CGC slabs as placemats, and you'll be here, dancing like an insufficiently_thoughtful_person, screaming that I missed my prediction.

 

I'm sure that will make you a real hero to those who are in debt up to their ears, and sitting on a ton of plastic slabs.

[drbanner]

Actually, that would prove the exact opposite as JC's long-lived sig line was that he was going to fiddle while the comic book market crashed and burned in 2004, not that the market was going to peak in '04.

 

I can see it now. Comic book prices plummet in early 2005, speculators are jumping off skyscapers, dealers are using CGC slabs as placemats, and you'll be here, dancing like an insufficiently_thoughtful_person, screaming that I missed my prediction.

 

I'm sure that will make you a real hero to those who are in debt up to their ears, and sitting on a ton of plastic slabs.

 

2004 seemed like a long way off back in 2003, huh Joe?

[Marvelous]

Yeah, what insufficiently_thoughtful_person said that?

 

 

 

priceless

[joe_collector]

priceless

 

Yes, your inability to recognize self-deprecating humor is right up there with a chimp's.

 

You're either the stupidest person on Earth, or you play him on these forums.

[shadroch]

Hey JC,

What you got against chimps?

[Darthdiesel]

Yes, your inability to recognize self-deprecating humor is right up there with a chimp's.

 

You're either the stupidest person on Earth, or you play him on these forums.

 

This is classic ... I'll have to remember this one and bust it out at the next board meeting

[burntboy]

Crashing CGC Market Books:

1. Post 1966

2. 9.6 or below

3. Relatively "common"

4. Not by any stretch of the imagination "keys"

 

Get your money OUT of these books right now.

 

I would disagree with both Joe and Gene in that you can still make a lot of money "investing" in comics, but you have to have a short term investment timeframe, be willing to quickly sell at a loss if it happens, and not be emotionally invested in your books. I'm going to take a bath on my CGC 9.8 FFs, but I don't care. Everything else I'm moving is going to cover it.

 

help me here; i can follow your bullets # 1, 3 and 4 quite readily. (sorta like - invest in early SA or before, stay away from Cap 100, Iron-man/Submariner 1, FF #48, etc., and stick to "true" keys.) have i kinda got it so far??

 

but, #3 is stating that most books at or below 9.6 will likely tank??

 

if i add this all up, i'd have to invest in mostly pre 66 books, that are NOT at all common, and are bonafide keys in 9.8 condition and higher???? in other words, i'd have to be Tripps or Brulato???

 

please straighten this out for me - thanks

[Aman619]

I had it on good authority that it was definitely to occur in early 2004!!!

 

 

Yeah, what insufficiently_thoughtful_person said that?

 

I half-jested about 2004, but I'd like to know who stamped it 100% to be "early".

 

Joe, as you know by now, the trouble with fixing a date or period when things will turnaround is the "six months thing". That is, 6 months always seems like a long enough time for a sea change. But then it goes by in a flash. Wall St is big on 'next quarter" turnaround, or give it a couple of quarters beileveing they are sufficiently giving their 'cause' enough time to ocome about.

 

So, you oughtta refrain from selecting any dates or time periods,

--- for the next 6 months or so that is!

[drbanner]

Crashing CGC Market Books:

1. Post 1966

2. 9.6 or below

3. Relatively "common"

4. Not by any stretch of the imagination "keys"

 

Get your money OUT of these books right now.

 

I would disagree with both Joe and Gene in that you can still make a lot of money "investing" in comics, but you have to have a short term investment timeframe, be willing to quickly sell at a loss if it happens, and not be emotionally invested in your books. I'm going to take a bath on my CGC 9.8 FFs, but I don't care. Everything else I'm moving is going to cover it.

 

help me here; i can follow your bullets # 1, 3 and 4 quite readily. (sorta like - invest in early SA or before, stay away from Cap 100, Iron-man/Submariner 1, FF #48, etc., and stick to "true" keys.) have i kinda got it so far??

 

but, #3 is stating that most books at or below 9.6 will likely tank??

 

if i add this all up, i'd have to invest in mostly pre 66 books, that are NOT at all common, and are bonafide keys in 9.8 condition and higher???? in other words, i'd have to be Tripps or Brulato???

 

please straighten this out for me - thanks

 

Donut forgot to mention the most important preface to that list - a book has to meet ALL those criteria to qualify as a crash victim, and indeed those types of books did tank in early to mid '02 (with some exceptions).

 

I'm not sure I agree with the 1966 date, but change the date to 1975 and you're really in trouble if your collecting/investing world rotated around post-1975 books like "New" X-men (94 and up), Miller DD's, the Wolverine mini-series, McFarlane Spideys, GI Joes, the Punisher MS, etc.,. These books are very popular in the 20/30-something crowd so there is definitely a demand, but as they were published after the direct market developed, they are plentiful in high grade. Unfortunately for the buyers who bought slabbed copies in '01 and '02, the CGC census counts hadn't matured yet to show this, so every 9.4, then 9.6, and finally 9.8 was the newest "highest census" copy and sold for crazy prices.

[thecomicsheet]

thats impossible. Go recheck your nubers!!!

I had it on good authority that it was definitely to occur in early 2004!!!

You musta missed it!!!

 

I think maybe the great crash ALREADY occurred - the last six months of 2002 were brutal.

 

On the other hand, rising interest rates have a way of choking off an economy and starting a steep plunge in just about any investment. I've heard a lot of 'whistling past the graveyard' type talk about how 'this time is different'. I think the party has another 3 months to go until Greenspan starts raising interest rates, then, who knows.

[joe_collector]

So, you oughtta refrain from selecting any dates or time periods

 

Come on, my 2004 "prediction" was a joke anyway (I've admitted many times that EBay and CGC are tough to factor in, compared to past comic book crashes), just to get under banner's skin. Guess what, it worked.

 

The problem now, is not that my tongue-in-cheek remark is being tossed back in my face (you can expect that fron children) but that no one is even bothering to get it right.

 

As I said many times, 2004 is 12 months long. Just check a calender if you don't believe me.

[OldGuy]

So, you oughtta refrain from selecting any dates or time periods

 

Come on, my 2004 "prediction" was a joke anyway...

 

Riiiiiiight.

[FlyingDonut]

Crashing CGC Market Books:

1. Post 1966

2. 9.6 or below

3. Relatively "common"

4. Not by any stretch of the imagination "keys"

 

Get your money OUT of these books right now.

 

I would disagree with both Joe and Gene in that you can still make a lot of money "investing" in comics, but you have to have a short term investment timeframe, be willing to quickly sell at a loss if it happens, and not be emotionally invested in your books. I'm going to take a bath on my CGC 9.8 FFs, but I don't care. Everything else I'm moving is going to cover it.

 

help me here; i can follow your bullets # 1, 3 and 4 quite readily. (sorta like - invest in early SA or before, stay away from Cap 100, Iron-man/Submariner 1, FF #48, etc., and stick to "true" keys.) have i kinda got it so far??

 

but, #3 is stating that most books at or below 9.6 will likely tank??

 

if i add this all up, i'd have to invest in mostly pre 66 books, that are NOT at all common, and are bonafide keys in 9.8 condition and higher???? in other words, i'd have to be Tripps or Brulato???

 

please straighten this out for me - thanks

 

By "common" I mean books that are readily available. Amazing Spider-Man 124, for example. There's a lot of them - and the census is only going to show more of them. The person who just paid a zillion dollars for that book got a very bad buy. I think a 9.6 Conan 1 is a good buy. I think a 9.4 Conan 1 is a good buy.

 

I'll go further - if you are investing in comics, stay far far far away from books already slabbed.

[joe_collector]

Come on, my 2004 "prediction" was a joke anyway...

 

Riiiiiiight.

 

Even banner knows that it was yet another volley in our never-ending war. But apparently, it whizzed right over some people's heads. No big surprise.

[FlyingDonut]

Crashing CGC Market Books:

1. Post 1966

2. 9.6 or below

3. Relatively "common"

4. Not by any stretch of the imagination "keys"

 

Get your money OUT of these books right now.

 

I would disagree with both Joe and Gene in that you can still make a lot of money "investing" in comics, but you have to have a short term investment timeframe, be willing to quickly sell at a loss if it happens, and not be emotionally invested in your books. I'm going to take a bath on my CGC 9.8 FFs, but I don't care. Everything else I'm moving is going to cover it.

 

help me here; i can follow your bullets # 1, 3 and 4 quite readily. (sorta like - invest in early SA or before, stay away from Cap 100, Iron-man/Submariner 1, FF #48, etc., and stick to "true" keys.) have i kinda got it so far??

 

but, #3 is stating that most books at or below 9.6 will likely tank??

 

if i add this all up, i'd have to invest in mostly pre 66 books, that are NOT at all common, and are bonafide keys in 9.8 condition and higher???? in other words, i'd have to be Tripps or Brulato???

 

please straighten this out for me - thanks

 

Donut forgot to mention the most important preface to that list - a book has to meet ALL those criteria to qualify as a crash victim, and indeed those types of books did tank in early to mid '02 (with some exceptions).

 

I'm not sure I agree with the 1966 date, but change the date to 1975 and you're really in trouble if your collecting/investing world rotated around post-1975 books like "New" X-men (94 and up), Miller DD's, the Wolverine mini-series, McFarlane Spideys, GI Joes, the Punisher MS, etc.,. These books are very popular in the 20/30-something crowd so there is definitely a demand, but as they were published after the direct market developed, they are plentiful in high grade. Unfortunately for the buyers who bought slabbed copies in '01 and '02, the CGC census counts hadn't matured yet to show this, so every 9.4, then 9.6, and finally 9.8 was the newest "highest census" copy and sold for crazy prices.

 

Yes, I forgot to put the "all" thing in there. 1966 is a good date, as that's when books started to get hoarded in significant quantities, and a bigger "collector" mentality took over. A better date might be 1968 with the Marvel "explosion" - Iron Man 1, Sub-Mariner 1, Captain America 100, Dr. Strange 169, Hulk 102 - those books were saved in massive quantities.

[FlyingDonut]

I would disagree with both Joe and Gene in that you can still make a lot of money "investing" in comics, but you have to have a short term investment timeframe.

 

You call it "short-term investing", while I call it "part-time dealing".

 

Conventional "investments" are where you slap your rmoney in, look for consistent returns, and every once in a while, transfer or diversify. It's not a daily job of buying and selling, as that would make you a broker/day trader in the stock market, and a dealer in the world of comics.

 

You are correct there is money to be made, but it also entails some hard work, time and dedication, things these "buy it, sit on it, and reap the profits" newbie speculators DO NOT want to do.

 

We can split hairs - but I look for a 20-25% after tax IRR, and get it in comics. You are right, however, it does entail hardwork, time and dedication. You most DEFINITELY cannot "buy and hold". I guess I'm just a mutual fund manager.

[drbanner]

Come on, my 2004 "prediction" was a joke anyway (I've admitted many times that EBay and CGC are tough to factor in, compared to past comic book crashes), just to get under banner's skin.

 

Right Joe...you think anyone believes that backtrack? As you may not select to recall accurately, last fall when you carried that stupid sig line was a period of detente around here as there were bigger fish to fry, and that's also the timeframe we had our positive transaction (well, you said it was positive at the time "Thanks banner, and I must say I was pleased with the overall transaction.", but later in one of your bezerker rages you changed your story to I "...raped you with those crappy books...").

 

You made your bed with sheets procliaming "TGC of '04!", so for once please show a little backbone and stand by your word, no matter how wrong it is!

[OldGuy]

Come on, my 2004 "prediction" was a joke anyway...

 

Riiiiiiight.

 

Even banner knows that it was yet another volley in our never-ending war. But apparently, it whizzed right over some people's heads. No big surprise.

 

What ever you say.

[drbanner]

Come on, my 2004 "prediction" was a joke anyway...

 

Riiiiiiight.

 

Even banner knows that it was yet another volley in our never-ending war. But apparently, it whizzed right over some people's heads. No big surprise.

 

Riiiiiiight, see above!