Stop the Insanity!!!

[delekkerste]

Where would this psychology develop from?

 

It might be unethical, but the very lack of regulation may be the thing that prevents a market crash,collection,implosion or whichever term you choose to use.

 

thats a remarkable observation. Id been mulling over ways that the comics "bubble market" doe snot automatically become a mirror image of the stock market and tulip market, and this is a very valid but subtle difference.

 

Bill & aman619,

 

I think the comments you have made here again PROVE my point instead of disproving it! There will be NO COMIC MARKET CRASH in the traditional sense of the word in large part due to what you have described here. I repeat - NO COMIC MARKET CRASH!!

 

You are both RIGHT, but you still manage to prove MY POINT. The comic market is not a liquid market where the majority of market participants are aware of the valuation of their holdings at all time and where a shift in psychology brought on by stretched valuations combined with an exogenous shock or other factors can precipitate a rapid and crushing decline (as has been seen in the past with stocks). Bill, you are more than likely right that there will be "no stampede", at least not in the early days of the decline.

 

However, it would be naive to believe that if/when prices stagnate or drift/trend lower for a prolonged period (again, the phenomenon you have described above does NOT rule out a decline in prices that starts out with the selling of a relatively narrow group of collectors) that over time the psychology will not spread to the rest of the market. So, you are right - there will be no short-term stampede or panic (at least not one that takes prices to their ultimate low), but rather a slow & grinding shift in psychology that eventually breaks the back of the "prices always rise over time", "no price is too high to pay for HG keys" and "buy on dips" crowd. It is a process that will likely take years, not weeks or months, though.

 

Another thing to consider is that, demographic-based (re: retirement) selling will put technical pressure on the comic market starting 5 years from now (and only getting worse over time), which will only exacerbate bearish sentiment, much as constant 401(k) money flows bolstered stock prices and bullish sentiment throughout the 1990s.

 

Gene

[sfilosa]

However, it would be naive to believe that if/when prices stagnate or drift/trend lower for a prolonged period (again, the phenomenon you have described above does NOT rule out a decline in prices that starts out with the selling of a relatively narrow group of collectors) that over time the psychology will not spread to the rest of the market. So, you are right - there will be no short-term stampede or panic (at least not one that takes prices to their ultimate low), but rather a slow & grinding shift in psychology that eventually breaks the back of the "prices always rise over time", "no price is too high to pay for HG keys" and "buy on dips" crowd. It is a process that will likely take years, not weeks or months, though.

 

So what you are really saying is this that those COLLECTORS / INVESTORS who are following the market daily or at least weekly, should have plenty of time to SELL.

 

Sounds good to me.

[FlComicFan]

 

 

Another thing to consider is that, demographic-based (re: retirement) selling will put technical pressure on the comic market starting 5 years from now (and only getting worse over time),

 

Where do you get this timeline? All the collectors are retiring and selling out in 5 years. Nobody sent me the memo. We can all analyse all we want Its really simple, supply and demand. Right now there is not enough of these super high grade books available to satisfy the big dollar collectors who just cant wait to acquire what they want. Add the flippers who think there is money left in every overpriced key and you have the current feeding frenzy. Give it a few years things will settle down. Common books in high grade will drop down to a more sane level and the books that do end up not coming out of the woodwork will continue to hike p each time somebody breaks down to sell.

[delekkerste]

So what you are really saying is this that those COLLECTORS / INVESTORS who are following the market daily or at least weekly, should have plenty of time to SELL.

 

Theoretically, yes, but in practice, I doubt it. As I have said on several occasions, I think we will be in a bear market for quite some time before people even realize that we're in a bear market. Some books will still be hitting new highs while declines in other books will look like "healthy pull-backs" and the "pause that refreshes".

 

I think there are a lot of people who think they will be able to (a) recognize the onset of a severe bear market before other people and (b) pull the trigger and sell before things get really bad. My questions to these people would include:

 

- Oh, really?

 

- As you won't realize a decline is coming until prices have at least softened a little bit, will you have the trading acumen to sell your books down, say, 15% (knowing that further declines are forthcoming)?

 

- Can you look me in the eye and tell me you aren't so emotionally attached to your books that you won't be frozen like a deer in headlights once prices start trending lower?

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

Where do you get this timeline? All the collectors are retiring and selling out in 5 years. Nobody sent me the memo.

 

Would people PLEASE stop butchering my arguments? Neither I nor anybody else ever said that "ALL" the collectors are retiring and selling out in 5 years. However, anybody who knows anything about the growing debt crisis in this country knows that this country is going to face big problems once the Baby Boomers start retiring. That starts happening in FIVE YEARS. Note that I said STARTS in 5 years, not "ALL the collectors are retiring and selling out in 5 years".

 

Like it or not, neither you, me nor anyone else on the Boards can cheat death. The fact of the matter is that a lot of collectors who own a lot of the choice books are from the Baby Boomer generation. They're a generation that grew up with comics, who are larger in number than generations that came before and after, and who, frankly, made the most money to afford all these books. But, age is catching up with them. They will START retiring in 5 years and, more often than not, they will be quitting their jobs, moving to smaller homes AND selling off a lot of their possessions, including collectibles. The business press, as I have reported here, has already been reporting that the previous generation, struggling to make ends meet in this low interest rate environment, is selling off everything they own that isn't bolted down, specifically INCLUDING collectibles. Of course, these people do not own one iota of the treasures that the Baby Boomers own, so the effect on prices has been muted. It won't be that way once the Baby Boomers start selling (and remember, Baby Boomer selling is only ONE component of the argument I have laid out).

 

The sooner people look outside of the comic bubble world they live in and look at the bigger picture, the better off their pocketbooks will be. Don't even get me started on what the Baby Boomer retirement may do to the economy and stock and real estate values. At some point in the 2010s, comic book values will be the least of this country's economic concerns.

 

Gene

[sfilosa]

- Can you look me in the eye and tell me you aren't so emotionally attached to your books that you won't be frozen like a deer in headlights once prices start trending lower?

 

 

Very good question.

 

I believe I would sell those books that I think would be easy (or easier) to attain once again if prices do fall. There are other books I have, that rarely come to market so I probably wouldn't sell AND there REALLY would be NO WAY to say the VALUE of those book has fallen (as they are rarely sold).

 

I totally agree that any decline will be a slow devaluation of prices as oppose to a crash (except maybe on some modern hyped up books).

 

 

[delekkerste]

Instead of having people continue to mangle my arguments to suit their own agendas, please let me refer you to what I have *actually* said and not what people want to believe I said:

 

My Article on the Lyria Comic Exchange Website

 

And let me pre-empt here the nitpicking like, "I don't really believe jduran1 bought those AF15s in that grade at those prices like he claims". Keep your eye on the big picture, folks. Look at the forest, not the trees. And, instead of trying to poke holes in only my arguments, try poking some holes in your own.

 

Gene

[OldGuy]

instead of trying to poke holes in only my arguments, try poking some holes in your own.

 

Heh, you said "poking holes". hehehehehehe I like "poking holes".

 

Can we please get back to the Dr. Banner vs. JC fight? There are to many big words and heady concepts in this thread for me.